John little, whiskey and flow

John Little,whiskey and flow Paulo Caroli Agile Coach pcaroli@thoughtworks.com Twitter: @paulocaroli

Agenda• Flow numbers at the bar• Flow numbers at the Kanban board• Little’s Law• Q&A

Flow numbers at the bar

WIP• The number of bottles in the bar. Bottles that have been opened, but not yet empty.

Lead time• The time between the bottle is added to the bar and the bottle comes out of the bar (empty).

Cycle time• The time between two successive empty bottles leaving the bar

Throughput• The rate at which bottles are passing through the bar.

Batch size• The size of the bottles.

Flow numbers at the Kanban board

To Do Doing Done 1210 1 John 7 5 49 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy

To Do Doing Done WIP 1210 1 John 7 5 49 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy

To Do Doing Done Day 6 Day 1 12 1010 10 John 1 7 Lead Time 5 49 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy

To Do Doing Done Cycle time 1210 1 John Day 1 7 Day 2 5 49 Suzy 21 Day 3 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy

To Do Doing Done 1210 1 John 7 5 49 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 Throughput 5 Amy

To Do Doing Done 12 10 1 JohnBatch size 7 5 4 9 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy

Little’s Law

To Do Doing Done WIP 1210 1 John 7 5 49 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy

To Do Doing Done WIP 1210 Demand Throughput 1 John 7 5 49 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy

To Do Doing Done WIP 1210 1 John 7 5 49 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul Lead Time 17 5 Amy

To Do Doing Done WIP 12 10 1 John 7 5 4 9 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul Lead Time 17 5 Amy# WIP is proportional to average lead time

“The average number of work items in a stable system is equalto their average completion rate, multiplied by their average time in the system.” John Little, 1961

WIP = Throughput x Lead time

The numbers at my bar• My bar has 12 bottles of whiskey• I finish an average of 6 bottles per year• What is the average lead time for a bottle of whiskey?

WIP = Throughput x Lead time 12 b= 6 b / year x Lead time Lead time = 2 years

Cycle time is the inverse of Throughput

WIP = Throughput x Lead time <=>Lead Time = WIP x Cycle Time

Lead Time = WIP x Cycle Time 2 years = 12 b x Cycle time

Cycle time = 1 year / 6 b

Converting to months…

Cycle time = 2 months / 1 b

In average, I finish a bottle every 2 months

Questions to the audience• What happens if my bar size reduces by half?• What if I only buy small bottles (half size)?• What if I double my drinking average?• Q&A

John Little,whiskey and flow Paulo Caroli Agile Coach pcaroli@thoughtworks.com Twitter: @paulocaroli

Thank you! Questions?feedback please: @paulocaroli www.KanbanAndBeyond.com Paulo Caroli Agile Coach pcaroli@thoughtworks.com Twitter: @paulocaroli

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John little, whiskey and flow

by paulocaroli on Aug 13, 2012

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