The Big Five IT Mega Trends

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The Big Five IT Mega Trends - talk @ Filene Research Institute at Kansas City for executives and technology leaders of US and CA Federal Credit Unions and keynote @MEDES …

The Big Five IT Mega Trends - talk @ Filene Research Institute at Kansas City for executives and technology leaders of US and CA Federal Credit Unions and keynote @MEDES
1) Mobile
2) Big data - data doubles every 18 month - the information age economy will create value by sense making form data
3) Social Media
4) Cloud
5) Consumerization

More in: Technology , Business
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  • MobileBreakthrough technology for industrialized world and developing countries at the same timeNo need to read and write  audio and picsPervasive connectivity – fornt end to the cloudMobile banking in SA has almost doubled to 44% up from 27% in one year. 12% are now sending money from phone to phone. In Africa mobile minutes are currency.M-PESA (mobile pesa=money) is a branchless banking service, very successful in Kenya used by over 10 M people or 50% of the adult population; joint venture between Vodafone and Safaricom. Example of Prahalad’s developing countries leap frog the West.A story from a friend’s servant in SA. His pregnant wife having complications late in the night and they needed to get to the doctor. This was very late in the night and their residence was far from town. Neither the gentleman nor the lady had airtime to call the doctor. However the lady was a registered customer for Mobile Banking service. With no other option left to get airtime, a solution lay in her hands under her thumb. She got onto her phone and was able to buy airtime and called the doctor who diagnosed the issue on phone and the lady was relieved of the pain.Moore’s law for data creation - amount of data is doubling every 18 month
  • Mobile banking in SA has almost doubled to 44% up from 27% in one year. 12% are now sending money from phone to phone. In Africa mobile minutes are currency.M-PESA (mobile pesa=money) is a branchless banking service, very successful in Kenya used by over 10 M people or 50% of the adult population; joint venture between Vodafone and Safaricom. Example of Prahalad’s developing countries leap frog the West.A story from a friend’s servant in SA. His pregnant wife having complications late in the night and they needed to get to the doctor. This was very late in the night and their residence was far from town. Neither the gentleman nor the lady had airtime to call the doctor. However the lady was a registered customer for Mobile Banking service. With no other option left to get airtime, a solution lay in her hands under her thumb. She got onto her phone and was able to buy airtime and called the doctor who diagnosed the issue on phone and the lady was relieved of the pain.Moore’s law for data creation - amount of data is doubling every 18 month
  • Our kids will not so much have to find their next job as to invent their next jobSilicon Valley  Facebook is now valued near $100 billion, Twitter at $8 billion, Groupon at $30 billion, Zynga at $20 billion and LinkedIn at $8 billion. These are the fastest-growing Internet/social networking companies in the world, and here’s what’s scary: You could easily fit all their employees together into the 20,000 seats in Madison Square GardenLook at this start up! That maps the world’s technologies; it will help us to find our START-UP ;-)http://quid.com/By 2020 it will be 35 Zettabyte (IDC)  Stack of DVDs halfway to Mars30 billion of pieces of content shared on Facebook every month$ 600 to store all the worlds music1.5 M more data-savvy managers needed for big data in US; McKinsey Old economy: BASF, Dow, DuPont, GM, GE                       100k to 200 k employeesNew economy: SAP, Oracle, HP, EMC, MS                         50k to 100 k employeesInformation age economy: Facebook, Twitter, Groupon      5k to 10k employees
  • Our kids will not so much have to find their next job as to invent their next jobSilicon Valley  Facebook is now valued near $100 billion, Twitter at $8 billion, Groupon at $30 billion, Zynga at $20 billion and LinkedIn at $8 billion. These are the fastest-growing Internet/social networking companies in the world, and here’s what’s scary: You could easily fit all their employees together into the 20,000 seats in Madison Square GardenLook at this start up! That maps the world’s technologies; it will help us to find our START-UP ;-)http://quid.com/By 2020 it will be 35 Zettabyte (IDC)  Stack of DVDs halfway to Mars30 billion of pieces of content shared on Facebook every month$ 600 to store all the worlds music1.5 M more data-savvy managers needed for big data in US; McKinsey Old economy: BASF, Dow, DuPont, GM, GE                       100k to 200 k employeesNew economy: SAP, Oracle, HP, EMC, MS                         50k to 100 k employeesInformation age economy: Facebook, Twitter, Groupon      5k to 10k employees
  • Our kids will not so much have to find their next job as to invent their next jobSilicon Valley  Facebook is now valued near $100 billion, Twitter at $8 billion, Groupon at $30 billion, Zynga at $20 billion and LinkedIn at $8 billion. These are the fastest-growing Internet/social networking companies in the world, and here’s what’s scary: You could easily fit all their employees together into the 20,000 seats in Madison Square GardenLook at this start up! That maps the world’s technologies; it will help us to find our START-UP ;-)http://quid.com/By 2020 it will be 35 Zettabyte (IDC)  Stack of DVDs halfway to Mars30 billion of pieces of content shared on Facebook every month$ 600 to store all the worlds music1.5 M more data-savvy managers needed for big data in US; McKinsey Old economy: BASF, Dow, DuPont, GM, GE                       100k to 200 k employeesNew economy: SAP, Oracle, HP, EMC, MS                         50k to 100 k employeesInformation age economy: Facebook, Twitter, Groupon      5k to 10k employees

Transcript

  • 1. The Big Five IT Mega TrendsMEDES November 2011Paul Hofmann, PhD (@paul_hofmann)Vice President Research at SAP Labs, Palo Alto
  • 2. About SAPWe Help Organisations Do What They Do...Better© 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 2
  • 3. EVERY 2ND DOLLAR OF WORLD TRADE RUNS ON SAP Suppliers and Customers CUSTOMER DISTRIBUTION CENTER SUPPLIER CUSTOMS/ REGULATORY AGENCY CFO Sourcing CRO CUSTOMS/ REGULATORY AGENCY Customs Operations Export Compliance Receiving Fulfillment COO Manufacturing© 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 3
  • 4. Truly GlobalQuick Facts 175,000 customers 1,200+ partners 53,000 employees $ 17 B Revenue 120 countries 25 industries© 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 4
  • 5. What Does SAP Do? Financial ManagementSales Order AccountingManagement Talent ManagementProduction Planning Business Intelligence© 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 5
  • 6. The Big Five Mega TrendsMobile – Pervasive Connectivity Empowers The World 5.5 B cell phones worldwide (78%) - 1.4 B sold in 2010 vs.15 B shoesBig Data – Data Growth Follows Moore’s Law 2020 all data will be 35 Zetabyte 1) (1021 Byte) Stack of DVDs halfway to MarsSocial Media – Capturing the Social Fabric 98% of US online adults between 18 and 24 use social media 2)Cloud Computing – The Oil of the Information AgeConsumerization – IT for the People
  • 7. Mobile Phone – Empowering The World85% of world’s populationhas wireless coverage vs.80% electrical gridSmartphones SurpassedFeature Phone ShipmentsEurope (Q2:10) USA (Q1:11)Smartphones + Tabletsoutshipped PCs in Q4:10In 3 Years, China added MISR Image of Central Amazonmore Internet users thanexist in USA© 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 7
  • 8. No More Marketing Without MobileIf your plans don’t include mobile, then your plans are notfinishedWendy Clark, SVP, Integrated Marketing, Coca-ColaIAB Annual Leadership Meeting 2011Mobile ad revenues are projected to be $6.6 B by 2016 4)$20 B opportunity for mobile and internet advertising 5)assuming internet and mobile ad spend become equal to time spent~90 M US people own smartphones  Smart AdvertisingAlmost every day users of mobile social media +70% growing faster than category© 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 8
  • 9. Mobile PhoneNo More Brick And Mortar Banks Mobile banking in SA has almost doubled to 44% up from 27% in 1 year 12% are sending money from phone to phone M-PESA (mobile pesa=money)* branchless banking service in Kenya Over 10 M people or 50% of the adult population use M-PESA 200 M+ farmers in India receive government payments via mobile Mobile minutes are currency in Africa and Asia Facebook moves ~ $2 B of virtual game money*M-PESA is a joint venture between Vodafone and Safaricom© 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 9
  • 10. Big DataData Growth Follows Moore’s Law – Doubles Every 18 Month 1.2 million Petabyte in data have been created 2010 up from 160 Exabyte in 2007 1) 40% growth in global data generated per year vs. 5% growth in global IT spending 2) 30 billion pieces of content shared on Facebook every month 2)The Information Age Economy Creates Value From Data Old economy – BASF, Dow, DuPont, Ford, GM, GE 100k to 200k employees New economy – EMC, HP, MSFT, Oracle, SAP 50k to 100k employees Information age economy - Facebook, Twitter, Groupon 5k to 20k employees
  • 11. Big DataSoftware Will Eat The WorldMachines will talk to each other – Internet of ThingsAutomation of Information Gathering and ProcessingAI Could Replace 50 M Professional Jobs ~ 40% of employment Martin Ford in The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future
  • 12. Social Media 72% of internet users are active on at least 1 networking site Social > InternetSocial Networkers (11/2011) exceed Internet Users (12/2006) 3rd Largest If Facebook were a country it would be the 3rd largesthttp://socialmediatoday.com/soravjain/237864/fascinating-social-media-facts-year-2010 © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 12
  • 13. What Does This Mean For BusinessViral Impact Brings Risk & Opportunity From ”Talking At” To ”Talking With” From ”Controlled Distribution” To ”Viral Distribution” Message Control To Message Transparency© 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 13
  • 14. Consumer Innovation 3) Instead of asking them to watch, to listen, to play, to passively consume, the race is on to get them to create, to produce and to participate trendwatching.com Our kids will have to create their own jobs instead of finding one START UP OF YOU For Example - http://quid.com/ maps the world’s technologies It will help us to find our START-UP© 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 14
  • 15. Peer Production - Yochai Benkler HarvardLinux, WikipediaSlashdot, a news and announcements websiteDistributed Proofreaders, which proof reads public domain texts forpublication on Project GutenbergKuro5hin, a discussion site for technology and cultureClickworkers, a citizen science programSourceforge, a software development organizationRepRap Project, a project to create an open-source self-copying 3D printer.Pirate Bay, a shared index of bittorrentsOpenStreetMap, a free map of the worldSENSORICA.co, an open, decentralized, and self-organizing networkdedicated to high tech open innovation© 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 15
  • 16. ShanzhaiFree Spirits in the MountainsGrassroots creativity or a violation ofintellectual property ?Shanzhai Nokia N9  7 operating systems interfaces Meego, iOS 5.0, HTC Sense, Windows Phone 7, BlackBerry, Smasung’s TouchWiz and Symbian Anna  Looks like a smartphone with games and basic features  It is a semi-smartphone that looks like a smartphone but doesn’t have the full features
  • 17. Some things have to be believed to be seen
  • 18. References1) 2011 IDC Digital Universe Study2) McKinsey Big Data ReportAI could replace as many as 50 million professional jobs Martin Ford 20113) The Age of the Consumer Innovator Eric von Hippel et al. MIT Sloan Management Review, Fall 2011, Vol 53, No 1, 27 – 354) comScore, mobile advertising spend is projected to hit $2.5 billion by 2014, with $2.7 billion projected in mobile ad revenues for this year and $6.6 billion by 2016.5) $20B opportunity calculated assuming Internet $ Mobile ad spend equal to time spent & share equals their respective time spent share eMarketer 3/11Electronic valet start up, VenmoMerchant payment start up, SquareZipppay startup, a combination of Venmo and Square© 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 18
  • 19. Thank YouTwitter: @paul_hofmannEmail: paul@hofmann.nameHomepage: www.paulhofmann.netBlog: www.paulhofmann.net/blogSlide Share: www.slideshare.com/paulhofmannLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/hofmannpaul
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