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What the fracking? october 2012
 

What the fracking? october 2012

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Why fracking is not sustainable, and limits to growth determine that we need to change the way we live

Why fracking is not sustainable, and limits to growth determine that we need to change the way we live

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  • The end result would have been tram-train, in other words using light rail vehicles, or modern trams, on the rail network AND on the Golden Mile and south to the Hospital and eventually the Airport.

What the fracking? october 2012 What the fracking? october 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • What the fracking? Paul.Bruce@gw.govt.nz
  •  Fracking, the answer to peak conventional oil? Our overheated planet What needs to change The Age of Smart
  • Fracking:The deeper you dig the darker it gets Michael Selp South Taranaki District Councillor“ These oil companies are like legal party drugs. As soon as one shuts down another starts up and you‟re left legislating about things when the damage is already done.”“ My mother sang for the Kapuni choir. Half the choir over the last few years have died of cancers. My mother was one of those. They all drank in the area. Over the past 5/6 years they were just popping off.”
  •  Bans in many countries PAI expose revealed widespread industry ties to pro- fracking reports in the US Opposition from NZ Councils PcE Dr Jan Wright “substantive case under the Environment Act” GWRC plans to use Report for its Natural Resource Plan
  • Sensible answer to peak conventional oil?
  • NZ situationEvidence of poor waste disposal and consents breached Litany of incidents, accidents and pollution from lax processes 4 million hectares where fracking could occur
  • Fracking in Taranaki TRC reports 28 wells fracked but unable to identify chemicals used (LOGOIMA request – Sarah Roberts, award winning farmer) Swift Energy 17 operations using diesel containing BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenesis) 1, possibly 3 blowouts, high by international standards (1:5200 Calif) (not acknowledged by Bernie Napp or David Robinson) Waste not stored in metal tanks and inconsistent use of linings in pits Waste fluids sprayed onto farmland (Sarah Roberts) Shell Todd Oil Services indicates 10 contaminated sites at Kapuni not acknowledged by TRC (Annnual Report)
  • Waikato Solid Energy fracking in 2007 in Waikato without consent WRC gave permission to continue with no public notificationSouthland Two fracking wells in Ohai, Southland 1995 for coal seam gas Environment Southland unaware of fracking operation, environmental monitoring ceased with project 11 million litres waste water including chemicals dumped in stream Permit to dump waste was non-notified
  •  District Council granted earlier this year resource consents for site establishment works for drilling platform Te Karaka Not publicly notified, and expects to approve related applications for exploratory drilling later this year Wairarapa NZEC completed 2 D seismic Castlepoint/Ranuipermits 4 core wells drilled, expect to drill exploration well at Castlepoint early 2013, possibly using fracking
  • Deep sea oil and gas blocksGovernment has called for tenders: Rena cost taxpayers 25 oil and gas blocks offshore $50 million 14 offshore Wairarapa, two in Pegasus Basin south of Cape Palliser Local Councils not informed
  • Deepwater Horizon/BP oil spill Gulf of Mexico
  •  Permits covering 13,640 sq km Further 9,049 sq km awaiting approval Water extraction reduces water pressure to allow gas to be released Direct pollution from water Ground water table lowered Leaks, blow outs and environmental pollution in Australia
  • Health risks at every stage •Massive water use •Toxic chemicals •Air pollution •Climate change •Waste disposal •Health impacts •Truck traffic
  • US/UK studies US study on implications surface water/terrestrial ecosystems  Wells close to surface water increases risk to aquatic ecosystems:  Water withdrawal  Contamination  Excess sediment  Integrity of complete well assembly vital  Well casing, steel tubes set in cement, essential barrier between well and aquifers  Separate warnings from US Geological Survey & US Protection Agency UK Royal Society study highlights  Well construction is greatest risk of groundwater contamination  Risks likely to scale up in a national shale gas industry  Robust monitoring before, during and after based on entire lifecycle of operations, through to abandonment of wells  Identifies need for more research on carbon footprint created by shale gas extraction
  • Natural or man-made faults from hydraulic fracturing or drilling can intersect and chemicals can migrate to the surface in as little as "a few years, or less.” www.propublica.org/documents/item/371276-myers-potential-pathways-from- hydraulic 2007 to 2010, one well integrity violation issued for every six deep injection wells 2 million abandoned, plugged gas wells Seepage up structure and breakdown of concrete in wells sealed shut with concrete 60% of well casings fail within 20 years of construction
  •  Last twelve months US‟s hottest since record keeping began in 1895 (NOAA) - worst drought in 800 years High temperature to cold temperature records in ratio 10 to 1 confirmation of climate change Scientists warn it‟s the „new norm 0.8 deg C rise causing far more damage than expected Over heated earth?
  • Fossil fuel industry dumps waste carbon dioxide for free, rather than invest in zephyrs and sunbeams
  • Victoria in southern Australia 2009,temperatures of 40 C, and 166 deaths
  • Temperature anomaly distribution: The frequency of occurrence (vertical axis) of localtemperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980 mean) in units of local standard deviation (horizontal axis).
  • July 20 - 27th 2010
  • Ice loss - IPCC projections• third of summer sea ice in the Arctic is gone• record Greenland ice melt• oceans are 30 percent more acidic
  • NO ARCTIC SEA ICE AND OUR PLANET WITH A DIFFERENT CLIMATEThe blue line and shading is what the ensemble of modelsused in the last IPCC report were suggesting might happen.The red line is the multi-model mean for the projections inthe next IPCC report, and the pink shading covers the fullrange of individual model runs. The black line is what‟sactually happened so far
  • HaumoanaHawkesBay 17 March 2005Present path sea level will reach Pliocene levels of 2.5 million years ago, when sea level was 50 feet higher than now (James Hansen)
  •  Rate of venting and leakage of methane to the atmosphere is sufficient to give shale gas a larger greenhouse gas footprint than any other fuel (Howarth et al 2011) Global warming potential of methane is 72 higher than carbon dioxide over first 20 years, and 25 times as potent in 100 year time frame Shale gas is threatening investment in renewable energies Fatih Birol, chief economist IEA
  • What‟s in store for our mokopuna?•Clean energy technologies are available but they arenot being deployed quickly enough to avert potentiallydisastrous consequences (Maria van derHoeven, executivedirector IEA)•Fossil fuel consumption five times higher than maxallowable to limit warming to 2 deg•Present global rate of emissions increases imply a 6degree temperature increase this century•Each person on Earth has just 110 tonnes each of co2to emit into the atmosphere before 2050•At NZ‟s current rates, we will use our quota by about2023
  • Easy oil gone
  • THE PROTOCOL Nations shall aim to reduce their oil consumption by at least the world depletion rate of conventional production The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan for a Sensible Energy Future
  • Sea level 200 years ago
  •  Climate Change Response Act 2002 NZ Emissions Trading Scheme Resource Management (Energy and Climate Change) Amendment Act 2004 NPS for Renewable Electricity Generation New Zealand Energy Strategy New Zealand Energy Efficiency & Conservation Strategy NZ Transport StrategyClimate denial Environment Court excluded climate change effects, approval can be grated without consideration of contribution to climate change. Further weakening of ETS MoBIE Science& Investment Round to include $3.2m funding for gas hydrate exploration
  •  Future energy security depends on risky deep sea oil and fracking Soaring oil prices and plummeting real energy yields from liquid fuels have already left economic carnage in their wake, as a fragile global financial system perched on a Matterhorn of debt has been dealt blow after blow by the failure of the economy” Richard Heinberg “Fracking is worth one job per million dollars GDP, farming 15 jobs per million $, and hospitality 33 jobs” MP Gareth Hughes Net imports of oil comprise 60% of NZ total oil consumption
  •  Climate change is identified as an „overarching matter‟ Climate change effects are taken into account in planning and decision making
  •  Consent authority is legally obliged to consider any consent application on its merits Captured by section 15(1)(d) and possibly sections 15(1)(a) and (b) of the RMA. The fracking activity needs a resource consent, unless it is expressly allowed by a rule in a regional plan. Without evidence of adverse effects, it may be difficult to justify notification based on special circumstances The power of deferral contained in section 91 of the RMA is discretionary rather than mandatory Future stages will also need to (should) be considered on their merits A frack-free declaration by a regional council would be effective if the declaration coincided with the introduction of prohibited activity status for the relevant activities in the councils regional plan Alternatively, a council might be able to argue around the lack of reassuring evidence, in terms of "the risk of acting or not acting if there is uncertain or insufficient information about the subject matter of the policies, rules, or other methods" (RMA section 32(4)(b)). It is difficult to imagine how a fracking might be consented under the RMA, when the information required for making an accurate assessment of environmental effects is simply unknown before the project starts
  •  Objective 18  Risks and consequences to people, communities, their businesses, property and infrastructure from natural hazards and climate change effects are reduced Objective 20  Communities are more resilient to natural hazards, including the impacts of climate change, and people are better prepared for the consequences of natural hazard events Objective 9  The region‟s energy needs are met in ways that:  Improve energy efficiency and conservation  Diversify the type and scale of renewable energy development  Maximise the use of renewable energy resources  Reduce dependency on fossil fuels…………
  •  TAG Oil thinks NZ Government is very friendly National reviewing Crown Minerals Act to make even more friendly Little Government support for transition to renewables Fracking is high cost compared to renewables and conventional oil
  • Investment in fossil fuels is removing capital from projects that might still allow a return to a stable climate and sustainabilitySome $2.4 trillion in oil industry capital expenditures from 1994 to 2004 increased the worldwide rate of oil production by 12 million barrels per day.However, the $2.4 trillion in capital expenditures spent from 2005 to 2010 resulted in a decrease in the rate of oil production of 200,000 barrels per day
  • High spend on capex compared to cash flow makes it a PonzischemeAnnual decline rates 53%, only offset by increasing number of wells– USA is now like a pin-cushion!Increase in “tight” oil US production only accounts for 5% ofconsumptionTar sands have an EROEI of 5:1 and oil shale of 1.5:1 to 4:1Not a renaissance or revolution, but a retirement party!
  • Ethics What is unfolding is deeply threatening to human life and the failure to address it adequately at the political level raises disturbing questions about our capacity to act ethically as societies.For climate change is at base now an ethical question.It is to do with the way our actions impact on the lives of others both now and in generations to come. Jim Renwick
  • Mauri – essence of life
  •  Energy efficiency Renewable Energy Urban form (transit-orientated development) Transport patterns Farming practices Forest carbon sinks Store carbon in biomass including char
  •  Driver travel data page 6 .  Social and recreational destinations 25%  Over a third trip legs for shopping and personal business  Work related is about one third of driving time and distance  Accompany someone about ten per cent The driver was the sole vehicle occupant in two-thirds of trip legs (66 percent) in cars, vans and utes (see Figure 9). In one fifth (22 percent) of trip legs, one passenger was carried (in addition to the driver). One in eight trip legs (12 percent) involved two or more passengers. There was a slight tendency to carry more passengers on longer journeys. The driver was the only vehicle occupant for 61 percent of the total distance driven and, for 14 percent of total distance, two or more passengers were carried. Mean vehicle occupancy was 1.54 people per trip leg, or 1.63 people per distance driven
  • Contribute 2600 deaths a year from physical inactivity 16% of NZ green house emissions (deaths mostly other countries at present!) 300 - 500 premature deaths from air pollutants 400 deaths from accidents (10.7 per 100,000 population) Contamination of waterways through run-off from roads, wastes such as used oil, batteries and tyres have an impact on our environment
  • Fatalities Vehicles PopulatnVKT(bill) 2000 462 2.61 3.86 2001 455 2.66 3.89 35 2002 405 2.73 3.95 36.4 2003 461 2.84 4.03 37.7 2004 435 2.95 4.09 38.9 2005 405 3.06 4.14 39.4 2006 393 3.12 4.19 39.4 2007 421 3.19 4.23 40.2 2008 366 3.21 4.27 39.7 2009 384 3.2 4.32 39.8 2010! 375 3.23 4.37 40 2011 284 3.24 4.41
  •  Shift to more sustainable modes with investments  rapid transit, walking, cycling  traffic management  limiting and pricing parking  applying polluter-pays incentives  offering better traveller information Avoid unnecessary trips  smarter planning  pricing  telecommunications Improve vehicle efficiency  cleaner fuels  better-operated networks  efficient vehicle technology adapted to local conditions and requirements
  • Great Harbour Way
  •  High quality High capacity Electric rail spine Extend “golden mile” Low running cost Oil free, eco-friendly
  • Tram-train schematic
  • Innovation  Internet shopping  Video conferencing  Telecommuting  Flexcar  Green bikes  Ride-sharing  Free weekend buses  Fuel tax
  • Warmer drier houses arehealthier for young &elderlyGreater Wellington rating financeReduce energy bills!
  • Fun - liveable cities!
  • hous e photos 2007 002.JP G
  •  Transition offers a different story, one that is about living more within our means, connecting to place, returning power to people and communities, building resilience at the local level (Rob Hopkins) Renewable energy and conservation produce more long term jobs at lower cost than investment in fossil fuels Our fair share means halving our current emissions by 2020
  • If climate change is “the greatest market failure”, let‟s make sure our response is New Zealand‟s greatest success – for our environment and for our economy