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Think again!
 

Think again!

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The cognitive biases and fallacies that trick us into believing our plans are accurate and achievable, that people are the only barriers to a plans success and that keep us tied to our plans long ...

The cognitive biases and fallacies that trick us into believing our plans are accurate and achievable, that people are the only barriers to a plans success and that keep us tied to our plans long after they are proved to be hopelessly wrong.

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    Think again! Think again! Presentation Transcript

    • Paul Bowler Head of Delivery @spbowler @RadicalCo 31st January, 2013
    • Think again! How our decision-making processes get us into trouble
    • The Project
    • The Plan 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target
    • Intention
    • The kickoff
    • Iteration 1 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual
    • Iteration 1 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual
    • Iteration 2 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
    • Iteration 2 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
    • Iteration 3 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
    • Iteration 3 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
    • Iteration 4 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
    • The Steering Group
    • The NEW Plan 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
    • Iteration 5 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
    • Iterations 6-12 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
    • What were they thinking? 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
    • Hindsight bias
    • Overconfidence effect
    • Planning fallacy
    • Availability bias
    • Texas sharpshooter fallacy
    • Selection bias
    • Confirmation Bias
    • Subjective validation bias
    • Precision bias
    • Estimation anti-patterns • Ask an expert • Ask him (or her) face-to-face • Know the answer you want in advance • Confuse precision with accuracy • If the answer doesn’t match your figure then ask somebody else
    • Why was the plan accepted?
    • Framing effect
    • Interloper effect
    • False consensus effect
    • Survivor bias
    • Optimism bias
    • Bandwagon effect
    • What happened next?
    • Outcome bias
    • Correspondence bias
    • "When I'm wrong it's through circumstances beyond my control.When you're wrong it's through incompetence."
    • Cognitive dissonance
    • Optimism vs Blame (Hypothesis) 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Aggregateas% Iteration Optimism Blame
    • Why wasn’t the project stopped?
    • Sunk cost fallacy
    • Pseudocertainty effect
    • Optimism 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Aggregateas% Iteration Optimism
    • Information bias
    • ...and many more
    • Where do these biases come from?
    • Extended Concentration 0 20 40 60 80 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Concentrationas% Elapsed Time (mins) Concentration
    • System1 System 2
    • Biases Beliefs Behaviours
    • Antidotes?
    • “Vigilance, persistence and a healthy dose of skepticism!” Sheena Iyengar
    • When unsure, think again. When certain, definitely think again!
    • Thank you. linkedIn: paulbowler twitter: @spbowler email: paul.bowler@radicalcompany.com web: radicalcompany.com