Paul Bowler
Head of Delivery
@spbowler @RadicalCo
31st January, 2013
Think again!
How our decision-making processes
get us into trouble
The Project
The Plan
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target
Intention
The kickoff
Iteration 1
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual
Iteration 1
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual
Iteration 2
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iteration 2
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iteration 3
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iteration 3
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iteration 4
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
The Steering Group
The NEW Plan
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iteration 5
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iterations 6-12
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
What were they thinking?
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Hindsight bias
Overconfidence effect
Planning fallacy
Availability bias
Texas sharpshooter
fallacy
Selection bias
Confirmation Bias
Subjective validation
bias
Precision bias
Estimation anti-patterns
• Ask an expert
• Ask him (or her) face-to-face
• Know the answer you want in advance
• Confuse p...
Why was the plan
accepted?
Framing effect
Interloper effect
False consensus effect
Survivor bias
Optimism bias
Bandwagon effect
What happened next?
Outcome bias
Correspondence bias
"When I'm wrong it's through
circumstances beyond my
control.When you're wrong it's
through incompetence."
Cognitive dissonance
Optimism vs Blame (Hypothesis)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Aggregateas%
Iteration
Optimism Blame
Why wasn’t the project
stopped?
Sunk cost fallacy
Pseudocertainty effect
Optimism
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Aggregateas%
Iteration
Optimism
Information bias
...and many more
Where do these biases
come from?
Extended Concentration
0
20
40
60
80
100
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Concentrationas%
Elapsed T...
System1
System 2
Biases
Beliefs
Behaviours
Antidotes?
“Vigilance, persistence
and a healthy dose of
skepticism!”
Sheena Iyengar
When unsure,
think again.
When certain,
definitely think again!
Thank you.
linkedIn: paulbowler
twitter: @spbowler
email: paul.bowler@radicalcompany.com
web: radicalcompany.com
Think again!
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Think again!

301 views

Published on

The cognitive biases and fallacies that trick us into believing our plans are accurate and achievable, that people are the only barriers to a plans success and that keep us tied to our plans long after they are proved to be hopelessly wrong.

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
301
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
19
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Think again!

  1. 1. Paul Bowler Head of Delivery @spbowler @RadicalCo 31st January, 2013
  2. 2. Think again! How our decision-making processes get us into trouble
  3. 3. The Project
  4. 4. The Plan 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target
  5. 5. Intention
  6. 6. The kickoff
  7. 7. Iteration 1 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual
  8. 8. Iteration 1 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual
  9. 9. Iteration 2 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
  10. 10. Iteration 2 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
  11. 11. Iteration 3 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
  12. 12. Iteration 3 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
  13. 13. Iteration 4 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
  14. 14. The Steering Group
  15. 15. The NEW Plan 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
  16. 16. Iteration 5 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
  17. 17. Iterations 6-12 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
  18. 18. What were they thinking? 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
  19. 19. Hindsight bias
  20. 20. Overconfidence effect
  21. 21. Planning fallacy
  22. 22. Availability bias
  23. 23. Texas sharpshooter fallacy
  24. 24. Selection bias
  25. 25. Confirmation Bias
  26. 26. Subjective validation bias
  27. 27. Precision bias
  28. 28. Estimation anti-patterns • Ask an expert • Ask him (or her) face-to-face • Know the answer you want in advance • Confuse precision with accuracy • If the answer doesn’t match your figure then ask somebody else
  29. 29. Why was the plan accepted?
  30. 30. Framing effect
  31. 31. Interloper effect
  32. 32. False consensus effect
  33. 33. Survivor bias
  34. 34. Optimism bias
  35. 35. Bandwagon effect
  36. 36. What happened next?
  37. 37. Outcome bias
  38. 38. Correspondence bias
  39. 39. "When I'm wrong it's through circumstances beyond my control.When you're wrong it's through incompetence."
  40. 40. Cognitive dissonance
  41. 41. Optimism vs Blame (Hypothesis) 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Aggregateas% Iteration Optimism Blame
  42. 42. Why wasn’t the project stopped?
  43. 43. Sunk cost fallacy
  44. 44. Pseudocertainty effect
  45. 45. Optimism 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Aggregateas% Iteration Optimism
  46. 46. Information bias
  47. 47. ...and many more
  48. 48. Where do these biases come from?
  49. 49. Extended Concentration 0 20 40 60 80 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Concentrationas% Elapsed Time (mins) Concentration
  50. 50. System1 System 2
  51. 51. Biases Beliefs Behaviours
  52. 52. Antidotes?
  53. 53. “Vigilance, persistence and a healthy dose of skepticism!” Sheena Iyengar
  54. 54. When unsure, think again. When certain, definitely think again!
  55. 55. Thank you. linkedIn: paulbowler twitter: @spbowler email: paul.bowler@radicalcompany.com web: radicalcompany.com

×