Gerd Leonhard Presentation At Nokia Ceo Summit Asia 2007 "The End Of Control"

SMS: +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard Presentation at Nokia CEO Summit 2007 Wired for Wireless: Creating Kampung 2.0 Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

The key drivers of Media2.0 SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • Faster Broadband at lower costs, and wireless! • ‘Infinite’ Storage • Total Mobility • Social Media, Peer Production & Networked Communities • Blogs and UGC • Globalization and Localization • Converged devices • The explosion of Niche Markets Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Song TV Show Radio Program Concert Broadcast Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 The era of abundance in media Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

In Media.. SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 ...and the primary role of the Internet has started to shift from Communications to Content Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 1.1 Billion people across the world use the Internet, 1.4 Billion watch TV, and 2.1 Billion use mobile phones So how will Media be consumed in the Future? Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Some key areas of Control Loss SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • Media Distribution • Content Scarcity and the Unit-based sales model • Release Windows and Territories • Information Scarcity (and Monopolies) • Attention Monopolies • Push-style Marketing Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Mass Media used to have a Monopoly in Attention Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The Loss of Absolute Control - examples SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • Record Labels (to Artists and the users) • Television companies (to online video, search engines, portals and the users) • Newspapers (to RSS platforms / readers, aggregators, bloggers, and the users) • Cable companies (to internet platforms, and the users) Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Music has totally lost control of distribution ...and must now morph into an open-access ecosystem Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Now: Control 2.0 emerges - build on Trust, Merit, Value, Transparency Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Successful while giving up on total control: SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • eBay • Google • Amazon • Skype • EasyJet / Southwest Airlines et al • Myspace / News Corp / Fox • YouTube Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 The decline of the Hit Culture in Media - loss of distribution control changes everything Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Illustrating the Point SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 In media, the walls are coming down very fast NYT drops subscription walls Warner Music licenses YouTube UMG and EMI go DRM free Neuf Cegetel offers Music Flat Rate with UMG NBC puts free prime-time programs on the web Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 For the Digital Natives, everything is about being connected Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 The People formerly known as Consumers Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Example: the demise of traditional TV and Radio, in the U.S. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Now, it’s all about Pull not Push Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 By 2008, online advertising spending in the US is expected to surpass radio advertising spending Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 And advertising follows the trends of mass-personalization Souce: Booz Hamilton Report Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 From Impression to Relevance Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Media2.0 Paradigm Shifts SMS: +41 79 79 353 84 Linear ! Interactive Copyright ! Usage Right Monopolies ! Meritocracies Owning copies ! having access Mass Markets ! Masses of Niches Hit Culture ! Niche Successes Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

SMS: +41 79 79 353 84 Ever cheaper data... Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 The bottom line: In media, Friction is now... Fiction Assume total liquidity when thinking about the Content Business Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

From ‘The Network’ to NETWORKED SMS: +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Mass Media > Niche Media > Lifestyle Media Source: IBM report Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 three Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS: +41 79 79 353 84 About UGC User-generated content (UGC), also known as Consumer Generated Media (CGM) or User-created Content (UCC) refers to various kinds of media content that are produced by end-users, (as opposed to traditional media producers ...) It reﬂects the expansion of media production through new technologies that are accessible and affordable to the general public. These include digital video, blogging, podcasting, news, gossip, research, mobile phone photography and wikis. In addition to these technologies, user-generated content may also employ a combination of open source, free software, and ﬂexible licensing or related agreements to further diminish the barriers to collaboration, skill-building and discovery. Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

How meaningful is UGC? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Some data points on Social Media SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • MySpace has more than 200 million member accounts - larger than Brazil, the ﬁfth largest country in the world, and each account costing Rupert a mere $2.90 each. Facebook has gone from 10 Million Unique Visitors to 40 Million in less than 12 months. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

But cultural differences play huge roles SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The paradox of choice - SMS +41 79 79 353 84 More is better only up to a certain point... New intermediaries and trusted platforms are emerging Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Infinite Content needs Trusted Suppliers i.e. BRANDS Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Example: TV2.0 = TV + the best of the Net Place Next Time Gen EPG, Shifting Shifting Search & Content Quality Navigation Feeds Interactivity Community Folksonomy Remixing Social Media Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The UGC definition expanded SMS: +41 79 79 353 84 User Generated: ! Content !Conversation !Context ! Commerce !Community Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

But how to dollarize..? SMS: +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

SMS: +41 79 79 353 84 Telco Trends (some quotes by the CEO of Orange) ...from a gatekeeper of access ... to a supplier of personalization services and capabilities to (upstream) 3rd parties. Rent-seeking to value-creation The multi-polar world offers more possibilities as telcos embed themselves in a broader set of value chains, albeit with less control. Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Telco Trends: Data - Content - Context 1. The Past & Present: data becomes more important 2. The Present / Immediate Future: Content becomes more important 3. The Mid-term Future: Context / Community / Experience becomes even more important Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Telco2.0 SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Hamid Akhavan, CEO of T-Mobile International describes !Tomorrowquot;s Worldquot; as being about: • Multiple devices per person, rather than one converged device. • Targeted offers for individuals — !hyper-segmentationquot; needed. • Overlap with adjacent markets: Operators, handset manufacturers, and service providers “stepping on each othersquot; toes” • Super-broadband mobile networks: wireless 100mbps a reality by 2010 — beating Fibre/DSL (!) • Mobile phone evolving to becoming the !personal companionquot; (SMS/ IM/Email merging into !social networkingquot; tools). • Rich services on the Internet at your ﬁngertips (entertainment, information, transactions, etc • “Operators have no choice but to actively take part in new business models - the operator as access provider, enabler, or partner” Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

For a Telco, this probably means SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • User control increases tremendously, provider control shrinks, walled gardens wither • Data and Voice are a given, but not the ultimate reason for users to stay around • Unique, added values will matter more and more • Value is increasingly in the USERs and their data • Community and Experiences must become the ‘must have’ reasons for staying or coming back • Expansion into non-traditional business segments is pretty much a requirement Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Wherequot;s the money in ﬁxed and SMS +41 79 79 353 84 mobile broadband in the future? • Connecting many users to many services • Identity-based services (trusted identity provider) • Providing very unique, powerful experiences • !Lifestyle APIquot; • Product Innovation (see CyWorld / SK Telecom) Telco2.net: The profit from “mobile data” will come from the origination and organisation of data, not its carriage Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The Future SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • Everyone uses content everyone pays (somewhere somehow) • Many users ‘pay’ with Attention • P2P Marketing becomes a default • Next Generation Advertising is in a huge opportunity Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The Future Content Ecosystem SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • Mobile devices • Shared • Networked • Flat-rates, Bundles & Premiums Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 What used to be on the Computer only is now mobile Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84 The Barriers for the flow of content must be removed or kept as low as possible. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

More interest in content... but at much lower price points Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS: +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Example: The Music2.0 ecosystem SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The Flat Rate for Music is coming SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Thanks for listening www.mediafuturist.com Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

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Gerd Leonhard Presentation At Nokia Ceo Summit Asia 2007 "The End Of Control"

by Patrik Tschudin on Oct 05, 2007

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Gerd Leonhard Presentation At Nokia Ceo Summit Asia 2007 "The End Of Control" — Presentation Transcript