SMS: +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard
Presentation at Nokia CEO Summit 2007
Wired for Wireless: Creating Kampung 2.0
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

The key drivers of Media2.0 SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Faster Broadband at lower costs, and wireless!
• ‘Infinite’ Storage
• Total Mobility
• Social Media, Peer Production & Networked
Communities
• Blogs and UGC
• Globalization and Localization
• Converged devices
• The explosion of Niche Markets
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

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Song
TV
Show
Radio Program
Concert
Broadcast
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

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The era of abundance in media
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

In Media.. SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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...and the primary role of the Internet
has started to shift from
Communications to Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84
1.1 Billion people across the
world use the Internet, 1.4
Billion watch TV, and 2.1
Billion use mobile phones
So how will Media be consumed in the Future?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Some key areas of Control Loss SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Media Distribution
• Content Scarcity and the Unit-based
sales model
• Release Windows and Territories
• Information Scarcity (and Monopolies)
• Attention Monopolies
• Push-style Marketing
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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Mass Media used to have a
Monopoly in
Attention
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The Loss of Absolute Control - examples SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Record Labels (to Artists and the users)
• Television companies (to online video,
search engines, portals and the users)
• Newspapers (to RSS platforms /
readers, aggregators, bloggers, and the
users)
• Cable companies (to internet platforms,
and the users)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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Music has totally lost control of distribution
...and must now morph into an open-access ecosystem
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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Now: Control 2.0 emerges - build on
Trust, Merit, Value, Transparency
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Successful while giving up on total control: SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• eBay
• Google
• Amazon
• Skype
• EasyJet / Southwest Airlines et al
• Myspace / News Corp / Fox
• YouTube
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84
The decline of the Hit Culture in Media
- loss of distribution control changes everything
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Illustrating the Point
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Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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In media, the walls are coming down very fast
NYT drops subscription walls
Warner Music licenses YouTube
UMG and EMI go DRM free
Neuf Cegetel offers Music Flat
Rate with UMG
NBC puts free prime-time programs on
the web
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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For the Digital Natives, everything is about being connected
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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The People formerly
known as Consumers
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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Example: the demise of traditional TV and Radio, in the U.S.
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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Now, it’s all about
Pull not Push
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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By 2008, online advertising
spending in the US is expected to
surpass radio advertising spending
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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And advertising follows the trends of
mass-personalization
Souce: Booz Hamilton Report
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
From
Impression to
Relevance
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Media2.0 Paradigm Shifts
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Linear ! Interactive
Copyright ! Usage Right
Monopolies ! Meritocracies
Owning copies ! having access
Mass Markets ! Masses of Niches
Hit Culture ! Niche Successes
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

SMS: +41 79 79 353 84
Ever cheaper data...
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

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The bottom line:
In media, Friction is
now... Fiction
Assume total liquidity when thinking about the Content Business
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

From ‘The Network’ to
NETWORKED
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Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

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Mass Media > Niche Media > Lifestyle Media
Source: IBM report
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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three
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS: +41 79 79 353 84
About UGC
User-generated content (UGC), also known as Consumer
Generated Media (CGM) or User-created Content (UCC)
refers to various kinds of media content that are produced
by end-users, (as opposed to traditional media producers ...)
It reflects the expansion of media production through
new technologies that are accessible and affordable to
the general public.
These include digital video, blogging, podcasting, news,
gossip, research, mobile phone photography and wikis.
In addition to these technologies, user-generated content may
also employ a combination of open source, free software, and
flexible licensing or related agreements to further diminish
the barriers to collaboration, skill-building and discovery.
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

How meaningful is UGC? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Some data points on Social Media SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• MySpace has more than 200 million member accounts - larger than Brazil, the fifth largest country in
the world, and each account costing Rupert a mere $2.90 each. Facebook has gone from 10 Million
Unique Visitors to 40 Million in less than 12 months.
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

But cultural differences play huge roles SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The paradox of choice - SMS +41 79 79 353 84
More is better only up to a certain point...
New intermediaries and trusted platforms are emerging
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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Infinite Content needs Trusted Suppliers i.e. BRANDS
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Example: TV2.0 = TV + the best of the Net
Place Next
Time Gen EPG,
Shifting
Shifting Search &
Content Quality Navigation
Feeds
Interactivity Community
Folksonomy
Remixing
Social Media
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The UGC definition expanded
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User Generated:
! Content
!Conversation
!Context
! Commerce
!Community
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

But how to dollarize..? SMS: +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

SMS: +41 79 79 353 84
Telco Trends (some quotes by the CEO of Orange)
...from a gatekeeper of access ... to a supplier of
personalization services and capabilities to (upstream) 3rd
parties.
Rent-seeking to value-creation
The multi-polar world offers more possibilities as telcos embed
themselves in a broader set of value chains, albeit with
less control.
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Telco Trends: Data - Content - Context
1. The Past & Present: data
becomes more important
2. The Present / Immediate Future:
Content becomes more important
3. The Mid-term Future: Context /
Community / Experience becomes
even more important
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Telco2.0 SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Hamid Akhavan, CEO of T-Mobile International describes
!Tomorrow\"s World\" as being about:
• Multiple devices per person, rather than one converged device.
• Targeted offers for individuals — !hyper-segmentation\" needed.
• Overlap with adjacent markets: Operators, handset manufacturers,
and service providers “stepping on each others\" toes”
• Super-broadband mobile networks: wireless 100mbps a reality by
2010 — beating Fibre/DSL (!)
• Mobile phone evolving to becoming the !personal companion\" (SMS/
IM/Email merging into !social networking\" tools).
• Rich services on the Internet at your fingertips (entertainment,
information, transactions, etc
• “Operators have no choice but to actively take part in new
business models - the operator as access provider,
enabler, or partner”
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

For a Telco, this probably means SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• User control increases tremendously, provider
control shrinks, walled gardens wither
• Data and Voice are a given, but not the ultimate
reason for users to stay around
• Unique, added values will matter more and more
• Value is increasingly in the USERs and their data
• Community and Experiences must become the
‘must have’ reasons for staying or coming back
• Expansion into non-traditional business segments
is pretty much a requirement
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Where\"s the money in fixed and SMS +41 79 79 353 84
mobile broadband in the future?
• Connecting many users to many services
• Identity-based services (trusted identity provider)
• Providing very unique, powerful experiences
• !Lifestyle API\"
• Product Innovation (see CyWorld / SK Telecom)
Telco2.net: The profit from “mobile data” will come from the
origination and organisation of data, not its carriage
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The Future SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Everyone uses content everyone
pays (somewhere somehow)
• Many users ‘pay’ with Attention
• P2P Marketing becomes a default
• Next Generation Advertising is in
a huge opportunity
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The Future Content Ecosystem SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Mobile devices
• Shared
• Networked
• Flat-rates, Bundles & Premiums
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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What used to be on the Computer only is now mobile
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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The Barriers for the flow of content must
be removed or kept as low as possible.
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

More interest in content... but at much lower price points
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS: +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Example: The Music2.0 ecosystem SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

The Flat Rate for Music is coming SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Thanks for listening
www.mediafuturist.com
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com