Indo pak relations

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Indo pak relations

  1. 1. Indo Pak RelationsTrade , Goodwill or Self Protection• History For Common Man• Prithvi Raj Chauhan• Shivaji’s Arrest at Agra• Raja Kasturi Ranga & Afzal Khan• Shivaji & Afzal Khan• 1947 Kashmir Attack in disguise• 1965 attack in disguise• Lahore & Kargil• Mumbai and proxy terror war• Arafat ,Oslo & Hudibiya Treaty Russo German Treaty
  2. 2. What Has Our Unilateralism Given Us• Hindi Chinee Bhai Bhai &Tibet• Indus Water Treaty MFN &Free Visas to Pakistani Artists• Freedom Struggle , Ganga and now Teesta water to Bangladesh• IPKF , Shastri Bandarnayke Pact in Sri Lanka
  3. 3. New Compulsions For India• Encirclement By China• Energy Requirements• Gas and Other Raw Materials Requirement• American withdrawl From Afghanistan in 2014• Russian Annoyance & American Demands
  4. 4. Trade & People’s Contact No Panacea • Trade With Pakistan• In 1947 during GATT negotiation special provision was kept under article 24 for Indo Pak free trade.• For first three years we had unified currency . 65% OF Pak imports and 35% of exports were to India. Till 1955 we were Pakistan’s biggest trading partner.• Till 1965 nine land routes for trade and custom checks used to function . Free movement of people was possible.• In 1958 Pakistan and Afghanistan treaty permitted transit of Afghan goods to India.• From 1947 to 1965 India and Pakistan signed 14 bilateral agreements . Pragmatism ruled to extent that Pakistan supplied wheat from Sindh and India gave Atta to East Pakistan from Calcutta .
  5. 5. Indo Pak Trade - 2• 1965 and 71 wars reduced trade and India accounted for only 1.6% of Pak Exports and 0.06% of imports in 1975• In 1990 before Kargil war took place our trade was $88 million (41 export , 47 imports favouring Pak)• In 2008 when Mumbai took place it was $ 209 m which was subsequently increased to $ 664 m and is now & 2.6 billion.• Pakistani artists , patients have been freely coming to India .• Has Trade solved any problem in past , so how will it solve in future ?
  6. 6. People’s Contact Vs. Hate Education & Hudibiya• After Zia , text books of Urdu and Pakistani studies contain religious hate material which has increased from 45 lines in 2009 to 122 lines in 2012 . Mumbai has encouraged further radicalisation of Pak Society and might be getting cherished in Madarsas like 9 / 11 incident .• Why have Pakistan and Bangladesh thrown out hindus and Sikhs when even Prophet did not throw out Jews and Christians.• Why Lebanon , Sudan , Nigeria changed after muslim became in majority by over population .• Can Cricket, Trade , Tourism or people to people contact solve the hatred sown by religion and education ? No , Not At All
  7. 7. War : False Complaisance By Larger Army• Alexender’s army was much smaller than Porus.• Babar’s army was of just 15000 compared to one lac of Ibrahim Lodhi.• Abdali’s army was much smaller than Marathas.• English army in battle of Plassey and Buxar was much smaller.• India has repeatedly lost inspite of larger army.• Why Pakistan is not afraid of our larger army ?• Mumbai , Kargil and 1965 wars took place because Pakistan regards us as cowards (Shuja Nawaz).Nuclear parity will make it adventurous.
  8. 8. Indian Fault Lines and Asymmetric Wars of Future• USSR , Czechoslovakia ,Yugoslaviawere broken by asymetric warRecent Libyan and Syrian wars areAsymmetric wars.India is highly vulnerable toBalkanisation due to severalFaultlines of, region, caste &religion.Pakistan will never forget Bangladesh and will keep fighting asymmetric wars for Balkanising India as it builds more nukes and acquires mutual destruction capability.Decaying West will move towards Recolonisation as in Iraq .India is totally unprepared for Asymmetric Wars and is just a stting duck for recolonisation predators (Hameed Gul).
  9. 9. Some Simulated Asymmetric Wars• Mughalistan connecting Bangladesh And Pakistan via muslim ruled States.• Saudi Arabia funds campaign to seek free muslim movement in Mughalistan and subsequent legal resettlement of Bangladeshis.• China makes Brahmputra Dam, instigates Bangladesh to ask for more Teesta and Ganga water .Simultaneously with nuke parity, Pakistan creates friendly Kashmir and Punjab and starts drawing more water from Ravi hurting Haryana and Rajasthan.• Afghan Taliban steals small nukes and smuggle them live in India to blackmail or copy Ghazini & NadirShah.• Rule hindus permanently by Creating a voting block of SC , ST and non hindus and weaken Centre , Army , IB , RAW .• Economically weak West creates new West India Company
  10. 10. Understanding Western Vision Clash Of Civilisations by Samuel Huntington• Area under Western control has reduced From 38% in 1900 to 24% in 1990 while Islamic area has gone up from 6.8 % to 21%.• Share of western ruled population has gone down from 44% to 11% and may become10% by 2025. Population under Islamic control has gone up from 4% to 18% .• Islam will be the new fault line.• Share of manufacturing has gone down from 78% in 1938 to 58% in 1980.• Military manpower share has gone down from 44% in 1900 to 21% in 1991• China uses military violence in 77% cases compared to 54% muslims ,17% USA , 11% UK.• China is building up China , Pakistan Iran military axis with huge military supplies to Iran .
  11. 11. Simulated World War : Clash of Civilisation• America reduces presence in Japan ,Taiwan• and Sixth Fleet .• China announces full control on South China sea oil fields , Vietnam resists and attacked by China . US sends ships but Japan Taiwan dithers . Japan quarantines US bases . China afflicts heavy damage on US ships , occupies Hanoi . American public does not want to fight Chinese for Vietnam.• India attacks Pakistan succeeds initially but China and Iran join later . India warns other Arab countries about Iranian dominance .• Arabs attack Israel . Europe dithers but joins war when China deploys IRBMs in Islamic Bosnia . Greece , Bulgaria attack Turkey , Russia joins .Nato forces enter Bejing . India escapes final war .
  12. 12. Living With Three Pakistans Perspectives On Trade , Culture & Self Defence• We have to live differently with three separate Pakistans . Educated Civilians, Military and Jihadis .• Liberal Trade ,cultural , medical ,educational, tourism and sporting exchanges will help in long run with this first constituency . But trade should not make us more vulnerable for blackmail . It should create collateral Parity of dependence. Siachin give away or locomotive export model is defective.• Overwhelming superiority in conventional , nuclear and asymmetric wars must be maintained .• Balance of terror is very vital , strong intelligence and espionage network, nabbing Indian supporters.• Israel type extreme collateral damage for every attack on India is essential for tackling jihadis.
  13. 13. Indo Pak Relations Principle of Collateral Parity• We have had so many rounds of new hope and back stabbing that our trade relations should now be based on collateral parity.• We should generate surplus power from Iranian /Mynmar gas and pay transit charges from sale of power.• Locomotives should have remote switching off provision .
  14. 14. India : The Real Heroes Time Has Come For A Change• India must give up soft approach and openly accept Chankya , Rana Pratap and Shivaji as our real heroes .• Pakistan is our self imposed weakness. It risked delaying freedom and won by direct action day . Only we are always scared .

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