Take Hold of the Future
Improve the State of the World

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Presentation for World...
ALL	
  	
  	
  BIG	
  	
  	
  TRENDS	
  	
  	
  ARE	
  	
  	
  RELATED
EU20,000	
  Challenge
“4	
  word	
  phrase	
  is	
  basis	
  
of	
  all	
  leadership,	
  
innova:on,	
  marke:ng,	
  
mo:...
Life	
  is	
  too	
  Short
to waste on things you do not believe in
Who	
  cares	
  about	
  
the	
  new	
  strategy?	
  
teams	
  and	
  customers	
  need	
  to	
  feel	
  it	
  maFers
Why	
  should	
  they	
  grow	
  ?
All	
  leadership	
  
comes	
  from	
  
VISION	
  of	
  a	
  
beFer	
  future
Most debates about future
strategy are about timing
and focus
What if global recovery / Turkey
economy / mobile payments /...
17
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles

19
Strategies often
overtaken by events
World can change faster than
you can hold a board meeting
Agility
requires
Simplicity
WGP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  (%,constant	
  prices)	
  
US	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
26
EU	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
2% inflation
target likely to
be discarded
£	
  375bn
•

$2.3	
  trillion	
  US	
  +	
  $65bn	
  per	
  month
Vietnam	
  GDP	
  1985-­‐2011	
  
$3.4	
  trillion	
  
Reserves	
  
Text
Digital
Control
The future is about

EMOTION
“Great	
  customer	
  experiences”	
  	
  

Mystery	
  Shopping	
  	
  
42
80%	
  lost	
  in	
  seconds	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

Fast	
  answer	
  -­‐	
  know	
  me	
  well	
  
Fast	
  solu8on	
  -­‐	
  100%	
  reliable
...
>40%	
  WDP	
  by	
  2015
— IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
300 million move to cities in China and
475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
Europe Dying
4 couples to
produce single
great-grand child
0-14 years old EU 15% : Turkey 26%
>65 years old EU 18% : Turke...
75%	
  of	
  all	
  US	
  and	
  UK	
  wealth	
  owned	
  by	
  
those	
  over	
  65	
  -­‐	
  mostly	
  women
Can we stop ageing ?
Treatment which restores and
maintains the youthful elasticity of
hardened arteries, improves heart
failure – and helps wr...
Grow New Teeth
• Pigs	
  teeth	
  grown	
  inside	
  rats
• Mice	
  grow	
  new	
  teeth	
  from	
  nerve	
  cells	
  /	
 ...
Repair Heart / Brain
with stem cells
Monkeys on diet live longer
• After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories
• Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, ...
Slow	
  or	
  no	
  ageing	
  is	
  a	
  reality	
  in	
  animals
Japan	
  women	
  gain	
  15	
  minutes	
  of	
  life	
 ...
“Relationship Marketing”
lPeople like to belong
lSense of identity
lCommunity
lFamily
lPersonal advisor
33%	
  in	
  UK	
  don’t	
  watch	
  live	
  TV
95%	
  EU	
  bandwidth	
  soon	
  video
1	
  trillion	
  pages	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  a	
  month
Would recommend
you to a friend ?
"Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value,
beautiful views.“
Telford UK, May 20, 2013
This was the most beautiful hotel. C...
Scale - Innovation Speed

Is your corporation large enough ?
Eat or be Eaten, Strategic Mergers, Techno-Partnerships
e-­‐commerce	
  hits	
  $1.5	
  trillion	
  2014
12%	
  all	
  UK	
  retail
Online / physical
worlds become one in Brazil
50% research online - buy in store
40% research in store - buy online
89% wa...
Over	
  4000	
  road	
  hauliers	
  in	
  EU

1.3bn	
  home	
  delivered	
  e-­‐com	
  
items	
  in	
  UK	
  a	
  year	
  ...
Italy:	
  58%	
  increase	
  in	
  
aggregator	
  sales	
  of	
  
policies	
  in	
  first	
  6	
  
months	
  of	
  2013	
  ...
UK Retail
Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013
50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
Loca8on	
  
Marke8ng
is	
  next
BIG	
  THING
1500% growth car insurance black boxes

Telematics
Scale
2m	
  businesses	
  use	
  
SQUARE	
  
in	
  US

83
CUSTOMER	
  CHOICE	
  
200	
  million	
  payments	
  globally
Kenya	
  -­‐	
  17m	
  customers
$9bn	
  pa	
  -­‐	
  >33%	
  GDP
Tanzania	
  9m	
  people
35	
  na8on	
  links	
  via	
  ...
1.7bn	
  phone	
  
users	
  are	
  
unbanked

86
Global	
  RemiFances
$550bn in 2012 - 214m transfers
150m immigrants globally
World’s poorest 48 nations = double FDI valu...
Paypal	
  Mobile	
  
PayPal	
  	
  	
  $141m	
  -­‐	
  $4bn	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  2009-­‐11	
  
Bitcoin	
  Bubble	
  and	
  Bust?	
  

Secret and untraceable
Payments Doorway
•
•
•
•
•

In UK alone....
Transactions >EU600 billion pa
Credit card debt >EU60bn
Average card interest ...
TelcoBanks
Free mobile devices
calls / web / TV / games / pay
Higher income model
2010	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  ...
• 90%	
  Microsog	
  R&D

CLOUD
5.5	
  billion	
  cyberaFacks
42%	
  increase	
  /	
  year

>160Gbps	
  in	
  denial	
  of	
  service
1000	
  major	
  aFa...
•

Zettabyte
Exabyte
Petabyte
Terabytes

= 1024 Exabytes
= 1024 Petabytes
= 1024 Terabytes
= 1024 Gigabytes

BIG
Data
• Home
• Work
• Online
• Offline
• Sales
• Entertain
• Phone
• Mobile
• Chat
• Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc

UN...
Regulatory
Swings
eg Capital Adequacy / ROI
Public pressure v Reality
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom
driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33%
US supplies
3.3m US jobs
$468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020

200 years global supply
Up from 6...
Boom

Bust
5	
  coal	
  plants	
  replace	
  with	
  gas	
  =	
  9000	
  megawa5s	
  wind	
  
Coal	
  prices	
  fall	
  =	
  more	
  ...
120,000 terawatts of ARIZONA
sunlight /day
QUEBEC	
  from	
  
7,000 times total power use

MOSCOW	
  from	
  SAHARA
Solar	
  cell	
  genera8on	
  parity	
  
Falling	
  solar	
  cell	
  prices	
  
120,000 terawatts wind by 2050”
“40% EU power = of sunlight /day
Surplus wind to total global to methane ?
7,000 times hyd...
Smart	
  Power	
  Regula8on	
  

10%	
  Australian	
  power	
  genera:on	
  only	
  used	
  for	
  72	
  hours	
  a	
  yea...
Germany	
  Power	
  Surplus

• In	
  June	
  2013
• Electricity	
  prices	
  became	
  nega:ve	
  
• -­‐	
  minus	
  EU150...
•

Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids

• 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project

•

China planning to power Moscow
Power +
DOING GOOD
• What would you
like to be known
for – if you had the
talent?
• Top of list: Doing
good / being kind /
great p...
Beyond
Compliance
Perfect compliance will keep bankers
out of prison but cannot protect brand,
because public expectations...
The	
  only	
  corporate	
  value	
  worth	
  having	
  

Only sell what you believe in
and would sell to your family
and ...
— 10 million surveyed by Gallup

Teams	
  in	
  top	
  half	
  of	
  Engagement
86% more likely to have better customer m...
Go further than you have to
 Innova,on:	
  Intel	
  +	
  Chandler	
  City	
  -­‐	
  US
—1.5m gallons a day into $19m desalination plant à
—Pumped i...
Lesson	
  from	
  Non-­‐Profit	
  
Founda8ons
Connect	
  with	
  all	
  the	
  passions	
  
people	
  have	
  and	
  they	
...
EU20,000	
  Challenge
“4	
  word	
  phrase	
  is	
  basis	
  
of	
  all	
  leadership,	
  
innova:on,	
  marke:ng,	
  
mo:...
Building	
  a	
  Beler	
  World
Building	
  a	
  Beler	
  World
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Basis of all advertising
Every marketing campaign
Every mission statement...
RESOURCES
>500 videos of Keynotes

http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon

Global Trends Website:
http://www.globalchange.com
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
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Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon

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Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows on global trends, leadership, business transformation, future of governments and regulations.

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Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon

  1. 1. Take Hold of the Future Improve the State of the World Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Presentation for World Economic Forum Fellows
  2. 2. ALL      BIG      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED
  3. 3. EU20,000  Challenge “4  word  phrase  is  basis   of  all  leadership,   innova:on,  marke:ng,   mo:va:on  and  is  THE  key   to  strong  corporate  image”
  4. 4. Life  is  too  Short to waste on things you do not believe in
  5. 5. Who  cares  about   the  new  strategy?   teams  and  customers  need  to  feel  it  maFers
  6. 6. Why  should  they  grow  ?
  7. 7. All  leadership   comes  from   VISION  of  a   beFer  future
  8. 8. Most debates about future strategy are about timing and focus What if global recovery / Turkey economy / mobile payments / retail spending / bank regulation / inflation / demographics, the EU, Middle East and rise of Asian markets all change faster than expected?
  9. 9. 17
  10. 10. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles 19
  11. 11. Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  12. 12. Agility requires Simplicity
  13. 13. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
  14. 14. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  15. 15. 26
  16. 16. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  17. 17. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  18. 18. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  19. 19. 2% inflation target likely to be discarded
  20. 20. £  375bn • $2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month
  21. 21. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  22. 22. $3.4  trillion   Reserves  
  23. 23. Text
  24. 24. Digital Control
  25. 25. The future is about EMOTION
  26. 26. “Great  customer  experiences”     Mystery  Shopping     42
  27. 27. 80%  lost  in  seconds  
  28. 28.                 Fast  answer  -­‐  know  me  well   Fast  solu8on  -­‐  100%  reliable Outgoing  calls  Solu8on  Line
  29. 29. >40%  WDP  by  2015 — IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  30. 30. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
  31. 31. 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
  32. 32. Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child 0-14 years old EU 15% : Turkey 26% >65 years old EU 18% : Turkey 7%
  33. 33. 75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by   those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women
  34. 34. Can we stop ageing ?
  35. 35. Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries, improves heart failure – and helps wrinkled skin.
  36. 36. Grow New Teeth • Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats • Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum
  37. 37. Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
  38. 38. Monkeys on diet live longer • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay 58
  39. 39. Slow  or  no  ageing  is  a  reality  in  animals Japan  women  gain  15  minutes  of  life  expectancy  every  hour • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales • No signs of getting old
  40. 40. “Relationship Marketing” lPeople like to belong lSense of identity lCommunity lFamily lPersonal advisor
  41. 41. 33%  in  UK  don’t  watch  live  TV
  42. 42. 95%  EU  bandwidth  soon  video
  43. 43. 1  trillion  pages                  a  month
  44. 44. Would recommend you to a friend ?
  45. 45. "Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“ Telford UK, May 20, 2013 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“  Paris April, 2013 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
  46. 46. Scale - Innovation Speed Is your corporation large enough ? Eat or be Eaten, Strategic Mergers, Techno-Partnerships
  47. 47. e-­‐commerce  hits  $1.5  trillion  2014 12%  all  UK  retail
  48. 48. Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
  49. 49. Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com   items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
  50. 50. Italy:  58%  increase  in   aggregator  sales  of   policies  in  first  6   months  of  2013  v  2012
  51. 51. UK Retail Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
  52. 52. Loca8on   Marke8ng is  next BIG  THING
  53. 53. 1500% growth car insurance black boxes Telematics Scale
  54. 54. 2m  businesses  use   SQUARE   in  US 83
  55. 55. CUSTOMER  CHOICE   200  million  payments  globally
  56. 56. Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP Tanzania  9m  people 35  na8on  links  via  HomeSend  Hub
  57. 57. 1.7bn  phone   users  are   unbanked 86
  58. 58. Global  RemiFances $550bn in 2012 - 214m transfers 150m immigrants globally World’s poorest 48 nations = double FDI value 33% of Liberia economy $55bn remittances by mobile in 2016 •
  59. 59. Paypal  Mobile   PayPal      $141m  -­‐  $4bn              2009-­‐11  
  60. 60. Bitcoin  Bubble  and  Bust?   Secret and untraceable
  61. 61. Payments Doorway • • • • • In UK alone.... Transactions >EU600 billion pa Credit card debt >EU60bn Average card interest rate 16% 2% commissions worth >£EU12bn 90
  62. 62. TelcoBanks Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                          
  63. 63. • 90%  Microsog  R&D CLOUD
  64. 64. 5.5  billion  cyberaFacks 42%  increase  /  year >160Gbps  in  denial  of  service 1000  major  aFacks  /  hr  in  UK Worries  about  US  Prism  /  security  services  
  65. 65. • Zettabyte Exabyte Petabyte Terabytes = 1024 Exabytes = 1024 Petabytes = 1024 Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes BIG Data
  66. 66. • Home • Work • Online • Offline • Sales • Entertain • Phone • Mobile • Chat • Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc UNIVERSAL VIEW of ONE CUSTOMER
  67. 67. Regulatory Swings eg Capital Adequacy / ROI Public pressure v Reality
  68. 68. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  69. 69. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  70. 70. Boom Bust
  71. 71. 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawa5s  wind   Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China 57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  
  72. 72. 120,000 terawatts of ARIZONA sunlight /day QUEBEC  from   7,000 times total power use MOSCOW  from  SAHARA
  73. 73. Solar  cell  genera8on  parity  
  74. 74. Falling  solar  cell  prices  
  75. 75. 120,000 terawatts wind by 2050” “40% EU power = of sunlight /day Surplus wind to total global to methane ? 7,000 times hydrogen - power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
  76. 76. Smart  Power  Regula8on   10%  Australian  power  genera:on  only  used  for  72  hours  a  year Energy  prices  can  soar  from  $50/Mw  hour  to  $10,000/  Mw  hour
  77. 77. Germany  Power  Surplus • In  June  2013 • Electricity  prices  became  nega:ve   • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!
  78. 78. • Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids • 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project • China planning to power Moscow
  79. 79. Power +
  80. 80. DOING GOOD • What would you like to be known for – if you had the talent? • Top of list: Doing good / being kind / great person Live today how you want to remember tomorrow
  81. 81. Beyond Compliance Perfect compliance will keep bankers out of prison but cannot protect brand, because public expectations change rapidly - with severe judgment on those who justify past “unethical” behaviour on grounds that it was 100% compliant.
  82. 82. The  only  corporate  value  worth  having   Only sell what you believe in and would sell to your family and friends
  83. 83. — 10 million surveyed by Gallup Teams  in  top  half  of  Engagement 86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable
  84. 84. Go further than you have to
  85. 85.  Innova,on:  Intel  +  Chandler  City  -­‐  US —1.5m gallons a day into $19m desalination plant à —Pumped into sandstone acquifer —Replaces 75% of water used by factory —Good relationship with local government planners / image / morale
  86. 86. Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profit   Founda8ons Connect  with  all  the  passions   people  have  and  they  will  follow   you  to  the  ends  of  the  earth,   promote  what  you  do  with  pride,   and  may  even  be  willing  to  work   for  you  for  next  to  nothing
  87. 87. EU20,000  Challenge “4  word  phrase  is  basis   of  all  leadership,   innova:on,  marke:ng,   mo:va:on  and  is  THE  key   to  strong  corporate  image:
  88. 88. Building  a  Beler  World
  89. 89. Building  a  Beler  World • • • • • • • • Basis of all advertising Every marketing campaign Every mission statement All leadership All change management All government Every business activity Every human passion • EU 20,000 if you can find a business exception to this universal rule
  90. 90. RESOURCES >500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com
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