Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon
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Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon

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Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows on global trends, leadership, business transformation, future of governments and regulations.

Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows on global trends, leadership, business transformation, future of governments and regulations.

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    Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon Take Hold of the Future - Improve the State of the World - Keynote for World Economic Forum Fellows by Futurist Patrick Dixon Presentation Transcript

    • Take Hold of the Future Improve the State of the World Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Presentation for World Economic Forum Fellows
    • ALL      BIG      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED
    • EU20,000  Challenge “4  word  phrase  is  basis   of  all  leadership,   innova:on,  marke:ng,   mo:va:on  and  is  THE  key   to  strong  corporate  image”
    • Life  is  too  Short to waste on things you do not believe in
    • Who  cares  about   the  new  strategy?   teams  and  customers  need  to  feel  it  maFers
    • Why  should  they  grow  ?
    • All  leadership   comes  from   VISION  of  a   beFer  future
    • Most debates about future strategy are about timing and focus What if global recovery / Turkey economy / mobile payments / retail spending / bank regulation / inflation / demographics, the EU, Middle East and rise of Asian markets all change faster than expected?
    • 17
    • • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles 19
    • Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
    • Agility requires Simplicity
    • WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
    • US  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
    • 26
    • EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
    • • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
    • • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
    • 2% inflation target likely to be discarded
    • £  375bn • $2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month
    • Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
    • $3.4  trillion   Reserves  
    • Text
    • Digital Control
    • The future is about EMOTION
    • “Great  customer  experiences”     Mystery  Shopping     42
    • 80%  lost  in  seconds  
    •                 Fast  answer  -­‐  know  me  well   Fast  solu8on  -­‐  100%  reliable Outgoing  calls  Solu8on  Line
    • >40%  WDP  by  2015 — IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
    • 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
    • 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
    • Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child 0-14 years old EU 15% : Turkey 26% >65 years old EU 18% : Turkey 7%
    • 75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by   those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women
    • Can we stop ageing ?
    • Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries, improves heart failure – and helps wrinkled skin.
    • Grow New Teeth • Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats • Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum
    • Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
    • Monkeys on diet live longer • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay 58
    • Slow  or  no  ageing  is  a  reality  in  animals Japan  women  gain  15  minutes  of  life  expectancy  every  hour • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales • No signs of getting old
    • “Relationship Marketing” lPeople like to belong lSense of identity lCommunity lFamily lPersonal advisor
    • 33%  in  UK  don’t  watch  live  TV
    • 95%  EU  bandwidth  soon  video
    • 1  trillion  pages                  a  month
    • Would recommend you to a friend ?
    • "Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“ Telford UK, May 20, 2013 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“  Paris April, 2013 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
    • Scale - Innovation Speed Is your corporation large enough ? Eat or be Eaten, Strategic Mergers, Techno-Partnerships
    • e-­‐commerce  hits  $1.5  trillion  2014 12%  all  UK  retail
    • Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
    • Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com   items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
    • Italy:  58%  increase  in   aggregator  sales  of   policies  in  first  6   months  of  2013  v  2012
    • UK Retail Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
    • Loca8on   Marke8ng is  next BIG  THING
    • 1500% growth car insurance black boxes Telematics Scale
    • 2m  businesses  use   SQUARE   in  US 83
    • CUSTOMER  CHOICE   200  million  payments  globally
    • Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP Tanzania  9m  people 35  na8on  links  via  HomeSend  Hub
    • 1.7bn  phone   users  are   unbanked 86
    • Global  RemiFances $550bn in 2012 - 214m transfers 150m immigrants globally World’s poorest 48 nations = double FDI value 33% of Liberia economy $55bn remittances by mobile in 2016 •
    • Paypal  Mobile   PayPal      $141m  -­‐  $4bn              2009-­‐11  
    • Bitcoin  Bubble  and  Bust?   Secret and untraceable
    • Payments Doorway • • • • • In UK alone.... Transactions >EU600 billion pa Credit card debt >EU60bn Average card interest rate 16% 2% commissions worth >£EU12bn 90
    • TelcoBanks Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                          
    • • 90%  Microsog  R&D CLOUD
    • 5.5  billion  cyberaFacks 42%  increase  /  year >160Gbps  in  denial  of  service 1000  major  aFacks  /  hr  in  UK Worries  about  US  Prism  /  security  services  
    • • Zettabyte Exabyte Petabyte Terabytes = 1024 Exabytes = 1024 Petabytes = 1024 Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes BIG Data
    • • Home • Work • Online • Offline • Sales • Entertain • Phone • Mobile • Chat • Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc UNIVERSAL VIEW of ONE CUSTOMER
    • Regulatory Swings eg Capital Adequacy / ROI Public pressure v Reality
    • $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
    • Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
    • Boom Bust
    • 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawa5s  wind   Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China 57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  
    • 120,000 terawatts of ARIZONA sunlight /day QUEBEC  from   7,000 times total power use MOSCOW  from  SAHARA
    • Solar  cell  genera8on  parity  
    • Falling  solar  cell  prices  
    • 120,000 terawatts wind by 2050” “40% EU power = of sunlight /day Surplus wind to total global to methane ? 7,000 times hydrogen - power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
    • Smart  Power  Regula8on   10%  Australian  power  genera:on  only  used  for  72  hours  a  year Energy  prices  can  soar  from  $50/Mw  hour  to  $10,000/  Mw  hour
    • Germany  Power  Surplus • In  June  2013 • Electricity  prices  became  nega:ve   • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!
    • • Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids • 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project • China planning to power Moscow
    • Power +
    • DOING GOOD • What would you like to be known for – if you had the talent? • Top of list: Doing good / being kind / great person Live today how you want to remember tomorrow
    • Beyond Compliance Perfect compliance will keep bankers out of prison but cannot protect brand, because public expectations change rapidly - with severe judgment on those who justify past “unethical” behaviour on grounds that it was 100% compliant.
    • The  only  corporate  value  worth  having   Only sell what you believe in and would sell to your family and friends
    • — 10 million surveyed by Gallup Teams  in  top  half  of  Engagement 86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable
    • Go further than you have to
    •  Innova,on:  Intel  +  Chandler  City  -­‐  US —1.5m gallons a day into $19m desalination plant à —Pumped into sandstone acquifer —Replaces 75% of water used by factory —Good relationship with local government planners / image / morale
    • Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profit   Founda8ons Connect  with  all  the  passions   people  have  and  they  will  follow   you  to  the  ends  of  the  earth,   promote  what  you  do  with  pride,   and  may  even  be  willing  to  work   for  you  for  next  to  nothing
    • EU20,000  Challenge “4  word  phrase  is  basis   of  all  leadership,   innova:on,  marke:ng,   mo:va:on  and  is  THE  key   to  strong  corporate  image:
    • Building  a  Beler  World
    • Building  a  Beler  World • • • • • • • • Basis of all advertising Every marketing campaign Every mission statement All leadership All change management All government Every business activity Every human passion • EU 20,000 if you can find a business exception to this universal rule
    • RESOURCES >500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com