SustainAgility	

how green tech, smart innovation and agile
leadership will help protect our world and
impact commodity ma...
“80-95% carbon reduction” Fantasy or Future?
!
ALL BIG TRENDS ARE RELATED!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Need to forecast energy / commodities in context of pan-global framework!
Wild	
  Cards:	
  Risk	
  Management
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
15
!
Strategies often
overtaken by
events
!
World can change faster
than you can hold a
board meeting
Oil >$100 a barrel accelerates innovation
Even strong climate sceptics “go green”
WGP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  (%,constant	
  prices)	
  
US	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
EU	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
>40% WDP by 2015!
• IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
Vietnam	
  GDP	
  1985-­‐2011	
  
$3.4	
  trillion	
  	
  
!
$2.4	
  trillion	
  	
  
!
Reserves	
  
Complexity and scale
create extra risks
!
You need
more than
one strategy
or scenario
The future of energy is about
EMOTION
Growth	
  of	
  Middle	
  Class	
  in	
  Africa	
  
250m	
  people	
  -­‐	
  $2	
  trillion	
  by	
  2040	
  
!
Commodities: 300 million move to cities in China!
475 million to cities in Africa by 2030!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
 11%	
  wage	
  inflaRon	
  in	
  China	
  in	
  2013	
  -­‐	
  similar	
  in	
  2014	
  
Nearshoring	
  Boom	
  
1	
  billion	
  over	
  60s	
  in	
  10	
  years
Europe Dying !
!
4 couples to !
produce single!
great-grand child!
!
!
1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years ti...
Future of Health will be shaped by emotion
1	
  week	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  every...
 11%	
  wage	
  inflaRon	
  in	
  China	
  in	
  2013	
  -­‐	
  similar	
  in	
  2014	
  
Nearshoring	
  Boom	
  
Slow or no ageing is a reality
•Rockfish, Turtles,
some Whales
!
•No signs of getting
old
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom
driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
!
!
“EU	
  emissions	
  of	
  CO2	
  
equivalent	
  to	
  a	
  carpet	
  of	
  	
  
CO2	
  =	
  28cms	
  thick	
  each	
  ...
!
Lessons from Shale
Gas and where next
for global energy
industry
Shale gas 33%
US supplies
!
200 years global supply
Up from 60 years in 5 years - US oil production > Saudi Arabia by 2017
Future of Gas ?
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
53
These forecasts
also likely to
be wrong
5	
  coal	
  plants	
  replace	
  with	
  gas	
  =	
  9000	
  megawa@s	
  wind
!
57	
  closed	
  in	
  US	
  in	
  2012-­‐...
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day

7,000 times total global power use
Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
Why China will domi...
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day

7,000 times total power useFuture of Desert Power
Solar cell generation parity
Long	
  term	
  future	
  for	
  solar	
  cells
•Future for next-generation Super-Grids
Enough salt caverns to power germany for a week
!60
!
•10% capacity used 4 days a year in Australia
•Average $50 à peak $10,000 per MWhr
Managing	
  Peak	
  Power	
  	
  
Lessons	
  from	
  Germany	
  Power	
  Surplus
!
• June	
  2013	
  electricity	
  prices	
  became	
  negaRve	
  -­‐EU150	...
Future of Smart Power Regulation
Utility Co controls consumption in homes / factories
—Russia pressure on Ukraine gas
—US national security worries
—Energy = Economic Power
Tribal Energy - Russia - US
—Subsidies
—58% for fossil fuels
—29% for nuclear
—Regulations
—Will impact energy markets for 50 years
Government Ac...
Nuclear	
  energy	
  -­‐	
  expect	
  global	
  growth….
—Challenge to achieve carbon reductionAND cut nuclear
—Wild car...
—30 million acres lost
!
—EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food
25% of 2010 US grain ! fuel

!67
40% US corn burnt in vehi...
!68
!69
Biofuel impact on food prices
Smart heating or cooling
Save 30-50% energy - payback 4 years
—5% to 2% of US / EU energy
—120 million EU street lamps
—75% replace in 15 years at unit
cost of $750 including labour...
•70% new buildings in Sweden
•45% new buildings in New Zealand
•Payback 15 years but boosts electricity demand
Heat Pumps ...
30% + of lifetime energy use = build and demolish
Construction: build offices to last
Problem	
  of	
  Old	
  Tires	
  –	
  gassificaPon	
  
Recycling: save up to 70% energy
Tyres to clean gas + steel in 5 min...
>30%	
  energy	
  savings	
  with	
  green	
  tech
76
Tyres	
  –	
  4.3%	
  	
  	
  	
  Streamlining	
  –	
  12%	
  	
  	
  1.5	
  metres	
  longer	
  –	
  5%	
  
Hybrid	
  ...
30% EU trucks run empty
“We	
  waste	
  25	
  million	
  
	
  miles	
  a	
  year	
  driving	
  empty	
  trucks”	
  	
  
!
...
150kms by road can cost more than 10,000kms by sea
Fuel Cell shipments up 200%
!81
Burn in pure oxygen - Bury pure CO2
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Carbon capture - Carbon sequestration
—World’s largest derivative market ?
Future of Carbon Trading
Fusion of Water and Energy
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Power use = 4x Industry in UK
—1 billion have no safe drinking water
—2.3 billion at risk of drought
—4.5 billion at risk by 2050
— Tomato                   13 litre
— Slice of bread          50 litre
— Egg                        146 litre
— Pint b...
—48,000 major dams world-wide
—400,000 square kilometres
—78,000 small dams in US alone – many need repair
Huge future ...
—1.5m gallons a day into $19m desalination plant à
—Pumped into sandstone acquifer under Chandler City,Arizona
—Replac...
—55 million cubic metres water capacity a day from sea water
—Expect energy use / cubic metre to fall by 50% in 20 years...
800 billion cubic metres of water traded
virtually every year = 10 river Niles
—1 kg wheat – 1 cubic metre of water
—40k...
—For individuals
—For family
—For community
—For whole earth
Making Life Better
Green tech will help our world in a pr...
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd	

Slides and Videos - globalchange.com
13.5 million unique visitors - 4 millio...
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon
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Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon

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Future trends keynote for Koch on SustainAgility book - green tech, sustainability, commodities demand in future. Trends in oil, gas, coal, nuclear, wind and solar power, energy industry, steel mining, copper mining, precious metals, uranium. Futurist keynote by Patrick Dixon

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Sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for Koch by Patrick Dixon

  1. 1. SustainAgility how green tech, smart innovation and agile leadership will help protect our world and impact commodity markets Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
  2. 2. “80-95% carbon reduction” Fantasy or Future?
  3. 3. ! ALL BIG TRENDS ARE RELATED! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Need to forecast energy / commodities in context of pan-global framework!
  4. 4. Wild  Cards:  Risk  Management
  5. 5. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles 15
  6. 6. ! Strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  7. 7. Oil >$100 a barrel accelerates innovation Even strong climate sceptics “go green”
  8. 8. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
  9. 9. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  10. 10. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  11. 11. >40% WDP by 2015! • IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  12. 12. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  13. 13. $3.4  trillion     !
  14. 14. $2.4  trillion     ! Reserves  
  15. 15. Complexity and scale create extra risks
  16. 16. ! You need more than one strategy or scenario
  17. 17. The future of energy is about EMOTION
  18. 18. Growth  of  Middle  Class  in  Africa   250m  people  -­‐  $2  trillion  by  2040   !
  19. 19. Commodities: 300 million move to cities in China! 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  20. 20.  11%  wage  inflaRon  in  China  in  2013  -­‐  similar  in  2014  
  21. 21. Nearshoring  Boom  
  22. 22. 1  billion  over  60s  in  10  years
  23. 23. Europe Dying ! ! 4 couples to ! produce single! great-grand child! ! ! 1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time!
  24. 24. Future of Health will be shaped by emotion
  25. 25. 1  week                                                      every  4  
  26. 26.  11%  wage  inflaRon  in  China  in  2013  -­‐  similar  in  2014  
  27. 27. Nearshoring  Boom  
  28. 28. Slow or no ageing is a reality •Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! •No signs of getting old
  29. 29. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  30. 30. ! ! “EU  emissions  of  CO2   equivalent  to  a  carpet  of     CO2  =  28cms  thick  each  year   over  enRre  land  mass”   ! !
  31. 31. ! Lessons from Shale Gas and where next for global energy industry
  32. 32. Shale gas 33% US supplies ! 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years - US oil production > Saudi Arabia by 2017
  33. 33. Future of Gas ?
  34. 34. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles 53 These forecasts also likely to be wrong
  35. 35. 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawa@s  wind ! 57  closed  in  US  in  2012-­‐14 Cheaper  coal  means  more  coal  will  be  burnt  in  Asia  
  36. 36. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert Why China will dominate wind power industry “40% EU power = wind by 2050” Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
  37. 37. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total power useFuture of Desert Power
  38. 38. Solar cell generation parity
  39. 39. Long  term  future  for  solar  cells
  40. 40. •Future for next-generation Super-Grids
  41. 41. Enough salt caverns to power germany for a week !60
  42. 42. ! •10% capacity used 4 days a year in Australia •Average $50 à peak $10,000 per MWhr Managing  Peak  Power    
  43. 43. Lessons  from  Germany  Power  Surplus ! • June  2013  electricity  prices  became  negaRve  -­‐EU150  /  MWhr  !!
  44. 44. Future of Smart Power Regulation Utility Co controls consumption in homes / factories
  45. 45. —Russia pressure on Ukraine gas —US national security worries —Energy = Economic Power Tribal Energy - Russia - US
  46. 46. —Subsidies —58% for fossil fuels —29% for nuclear —Regulations —Will impact energy markets for 50 years Government Action will distort Energy Markets
  47. 47. Nuclear  energy  -­‐  expect  global  growth…. —Challenge to achieve carbon reductionAND cut nuclear —Wild card = dirty terror bomb or another meltdown
  48. 48. —30 million acres lost ! —EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food 25% of 2010 US grain ! fuel
 !67 40% US corn burnt in vehicles Using 100% US corn would only drive 25% of vehicle miles
  49. 49. !68
  50. 50. !69 Biofuel impact on food prices
  51. 51. Smart heating or cooling Save 30-50% energy - payback 4 years
  52. 52. —5% to 2% of US / EU energy —120 million EU street lamps —75% replace in 15 years at unit cost of $750 including labour New Street Lamps save 3% national energy
  53. 53. •70% new buildings in Sweden •45% new buildings in New Zealand •Payback 15 years but boosts electricity demand Heat Pumps save up to 50% energy
  54. 54. 30% + of lifetime energy use = build and demolish Construction: build offices to last
  55. 55. Problem  of  Old  Tires  –  gassificaPon   Recycling: save up to 70% energy Tyres to clean gas + steel in 5 minutes
  56. 56. >30%  energy  savings  with  green  tech
  57. 57. 76 Tyres  –  4.3%        Streamlining  –  12%      1.5  metres  longer  –  5%   Hybrid  engine  –  30%      Heat  power  air  con  ec  –  5%   Shocks    power  –  4%          Slow  from  65  to  55mph    -­‐  20%   SAVE  ENERGY  ON  EVERY  TRUCK   !
  58. 58. 30% EU trucks run empty “We  waste  25  million    miles  a  year  driving  empty  trucks”     ! US  major  retailer  
  59. 59. 150kms by road can cost more than 10,000kms by sea
  60. 60. Fuel Cell shipments up 200%
  61. 61. !81 Burn in pure oxygen - Bury pure CO2 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Carbon capture - Carbon sequestration
  62. 62. —World’s largest derivative market ? Future of Carbon Trading
  63. 63. Fusion of Water and Energy ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Power use = 4x Industry in UK
  64. 64. —1 billion have no safe drinking water —2.3 billion at risk of drought —4.5 billion at risk by 2050
  65. 65. — Tomato                   13 litre — Slice of bread          50 litre — Egg                        146 litre — Pint beer               170 litre — Burger               2,400 litres — Sheet of paper      13.6 litres — Cotton teashirt    4,000 litres — Leather shoes     9,600 litres — Pair of jeans      11,000 litres 150 litres a day of direct water use 4.6 tons water used a day / person in EU
  66. 66. —48,000 major dams world-wide —400,000 square kilometres —78,000 small dams in US alone – many need repair Huge future for Dams
  67. 67. —1.5m gallons a day into $19m desalination plant à —Pumped into sandstone acquifer under Chandler City,Arizona —Replaces 75% of water used by factory Intel saves water in Desert City
  68. 68. —55 million cubic metres water capacity a day from sea water —Expect energy use / cubic metre to fall by 50% in 20 years Desalination: Next Generation
  69. 69. 800 billion cubic metres of water traded virtually every year = 10 river Niles —1 kg wheat – 1 cubic metre of water —40kg wheat = 40 ton water tanker —40 ton lorry of wheat = 2,500 lorries of water (100,000 tons) ! —If food tarifs lifted,VirtualWaterTrade would double to 1,600 bn cubic metres a year Trading Virtual Water
  70. 70. —For individuals —For family —For community —For whole earth Making Life Better Green tech will help our world in a profitable way
  71. 71. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Slides and Videos - globalchange.com 13.5 million unique visitors - 4 million video views
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