SIx Face of the Future - Megatrends impact on Latvia / Estonia / Lithuania - Futurist Speaker at Riga World Trends Forum
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SIx Face of the Future - Megatrends impact on Latvia / Estonia / Lithuania - Futurist Speaker at Riga World Trends Forum

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Future trends and impact on Baltic States: technology, big data, informatics, health care, biotech, demographics, global economy predictions, future of manufacturing, offshoring, reshoring, ...

Future trends and impact on Baltic States: technology, big data, informatics, health care, biotech, demographics, global economy predictions, future of manufacturing, offshoring, reshoring, nearshoring, future of supply chain, future of retail, e-commerce, m-commerce, cyberattacks and hacking threats, future of banking, mobile payments and financial services. Future of energy, sustainability, culture and corporate ethics.

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    SIx Face of the Future - Megatrends impact on Latvia / Estonia / Lithuania - Futurist Speaker at Riga World Trends Forum SIx Face of the Future - Megatrends impact on Latvia / Estonia / Lithuania - Futurist Speaker at Riga World Trends Forum Presentation Transcript

    • Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 Take Hold of the Future
    • Why  all  leaders  are  Futurists  
    • ! ALL      BIG      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED   ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
    • Most debates about future strategy are about timing and focus ! What if global recovery / Turkey economy / mobile payments / retail spending / bank regulation / inflation / demographics, the EU, Middle East and rise of Asian markets all change faster than expected?
    • !12
    • • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles 14
    • ! Strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
    • ! Agility requires Simplicity ! Small = Fast
    • WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
    • US  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
    • !21
    • EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
    • Latvia  and  Estonia  2005-­‐2013  GDP  %
    • • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
    • • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
    • ! 2% inflation target likely to be discarded
    • • $2.3  trillion  US  +  $85bn  per  month   ! ! ! Expect   INFLATION    
    • $3.4  trillion   ! Reserves  
    • Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
    • Digital Control
    • The future is about EMOTION
    • 36
    • 80%  lost  in  seconds  
    •                
    • >40%  WDP  by  2015 —IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
    • 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
    • ! 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
    • Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child ! 1 in 3 Bulgarians over 65 by 2050 Only 50% population working age Fastest rate of ageing in the world
    • 75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by   those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women
    • Can we stop ageing ?
    • Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries, improves heart failure – and helps wrinkled skin.
    • •Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats   •Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum Grow New Teeth
    • Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
    • Confidential HSV1  causes  cold  sores.  When   engineered  as  Seprehvir,  it  is   harmless  to  healthy  ;ssue. ! • Infect and kill cancer tumour cells • No damage to healthy tissue Viruses to cure cancer ?
    • • Harvard Bioscience • Bioreactor • Bone marrow stem cells • Polymer scaffold
    • • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay 54 Monkeys on diet live longer
    • Slow  or  no  ageing  is  a  reality  in  animals Japan  women  gain  15  minutes  of  life  expectancy  every  hour • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! • No signs of getting old
    • lPeople like to belong lSense of identity lCommunity lFamily lPersonal advisor “Relationship Retailing” !
    • !58
    • 95%  EU  bandwidth  soon  video  
    • 1  trillion  pages  a  month   21%  of  Latvians  use  Facebook  
    • Would recommend you to a friend ? !
    • "Perfection!,Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“! Telford UK, May 20, 2013
 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. 
 “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“  Paris April, 2013
 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
    • ! Scale - Innovation Speed Large enough for the future ? Eat or be Eaten, Strategic Mergers, Techno-Partnerships
    • Mega     Chains
    • In  many  EU  naNons,  up  to  70%  of   retail  spending  is  in  <8  companies
    • Expect  rapid  growth  of  large  retail  chains  in   BalNc  -­‐  e.g.  Maxima  Latvija  SIA  and  Rimi  Latvia  
    • Latvia  Retail  Sales  (year  on  year)    
    • Latvia  Retail  Sales  (year  on  year)    
    • e-­‐commerce  hits  $1.5  trillion  2014   12%  all  UK  retail
    • Expect  35%  growth  in  consumer   electronics  2013-­‐2017  in  Latvia
    • HUGE   MALLS  
    • UK RetailMobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
    • Price     Comparison
    • ! Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil ! 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store ! Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
    • Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com   items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
    • Home  delivery  when  no  one  at  home?
    • 80 3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries
    • ! •Latvia Online • >70% online • 12% smartphones - 44% of 15-24 year olds • 26% mobile subscribers use smartphonesTele2
    • Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com   items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
    • Italy:  58%  increase  in   aggregator  sales  of   policies  in  first  6   months  of  2013  v  2012
    • 56%  all  private  motor  insurance  sales   Growth  1-­‐2%  pa  -­‐  reaching  saturaNon   30%  of  consumers  select  cheapest  policy     Further  58%  select  policy  in  top  five  cheapest   ObjecNve  measure  of  brand  value   UK  Aggregators  Threat
    • • Maxima Latvija SIA and Rimi Latvia SIA dominated Latvian grocery retailing in 2013 ! • LatviaWith the news of Latvia's successful eurozone bid, rising ratings and improving business environment, we are sure that we leave Latvia in the best shape it has been in years – possibly ever. Still, 2014 is to bring some key moments which will have a significant impact on Latvia's future.
    • Mobile   MarkeNng
    • LocaNon   MarkeNng   is  next   BIG  THING
    • 1500% growth car insurance black boxes ! Telematics Scale ! ! !
    • 94 2m  businesses  use     SQUARE     in  US
    • CUSTOMER  CHOICE   200  million  payments  globally !
    • ! Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers   $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP   Tanzania  9m  people   35  naNon  links  via  HomeSend  Hub  
    • 97 1.7bn  phone   users  are   unbanked
    • Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                     TelcoBanks
    • Internet of Things
    • 1.5m components in supply chain
    • 90% all global data generated in last 2 years Big  Data  
    • • 90%  Microsoj  R&D   CLOUD
    • Aramco - 30,000 computers hit - files lost
    • 5.5  billion  cyberalacks   42%  increase  /  year   ! >160Gbps  in  denial  of  service   1000  major  alacks  /  hr  in  UK   Worries  about  US  Prism  /  security  services  
    • • Home • Work • Online • Offline • Sales • Entertain • Phone • Mobile • Chat • Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc ! UNIVERSAL VIEW of ONE CUSTOMER
    • Regulatory Swings ! eg Capital Adequacy / ROI ! Public pressure v Reality
    • $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
    • Oil >$100 a barrel accelerates innovation Even strong climate sceptics “go green”
    • “US emissions of CO2 equivalent to a carpet of CO2 = 33cms thick each year over entire land mass”
    • Source: „Vostok“ (Antarctica) ice cores, World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA 350-393ppm in 30 years
 x ! ! x 420,000 Years - CO2 and Earth Temperature ”Dip equivalent to 0.5 mile of ice over some of northern hemisphere 15,000 years ago”
    • Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 ! 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
    • Boom Bust
    • 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawaGs  wind   Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China 57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  
    • 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total power use QUEBEC  from  ARIZONA   MOSCOW  from  SAHARA
    • Solar  cell  generaNon  parity  
    • Falling  solar  cell  prices  
    • 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert “40% EU power = wind by 2050” Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
    • Smart  Power  RegulaNon     10%  Australian  power  generaNon  only  used  for  72  hours  a  year   Energy  prices  can  soar  from  $50/Mw  hour  to  $10,000/  Mw  hour
    • Germany  Power  Surplus ! • In  June  2013   • Electricity  prices  became  negaNve     • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!
    • •Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids •500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project ! ! ! ! •China planning to power Moscow
    • Only sell what you believe in and would sell to your family and friends The  only  corporate  value  worth  having  
    • Teams  in  top  half  of  Engagement   86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable — 10 million surveyed by Gallup

    • Beyond Compliance ! Perfect compliance will keep bankers out of prison but cannot protect brand, because public expectations change rapidly - with severe judgment on those who justify past “unethical” behaviour on grounds that it was 100% compliant.
    • Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profit   FoundaNons   ! Connect  with  all  the  passions   people  have  and  they  will  follow   you  to  the  ends  of  the  earth,   promote  what  you  do  with  pride,   and  may  even  be  willing  to  work  for   you  for  next  to  nothing  
    • Building  a  Beler  World
    • RESOURCES ! >500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon ! ! Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com !