Leadership in a rapidly changing worldDr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of    15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most  influential ...
F astU rbanT ribalU niversalR adicalE thical      Huge Opportunities
Wild Cards: Risk ManagementLow probability, high impact events
Wild Cards: Risk ManagementLow probability, high impact events
Future of Iran nuclear     programme
Military Challenges in• Towns, cities, forests, jungle, mountains,  valleys
Bird Flu – could kill 100 million
10% Cleveland homes repossessed    1 in 146 homes new action in                Nevada – Las Vegas 744,000 homeless in July...
Chance of 2 in 24 people sharing same birthday
Chance of 2 in 24 people sharing same birthday
Chance of 2 in 30 people sharing same birthday
Chance of 2 in 50 people sharing same birthday
Absurd Valuations• “Unknown trillions of dollars being traded  in non-regulated derivatives” US govt• Marking to current v...
Washington Mutual Shares
HBOS v RBS
UBS v Credit Suisse
Financial Crises• 18 banking crises in US since 2nd WW  – Low interest rates  property and stocks boom  – Current a/c def...
“Nationalisation” of Banking• Put capital into banks  – Buy new shares  – Reduce value of other people’s shares• Take “ris...
What will happen to all the cash?• Money out of shares• Money out of propertyEvery month cash grows  from NEW pension  fun...
More to Life than FinancialService Companies / Banks
1 billion  childrenMost peoplelive in cities
China – 300m move to cities by 2020   748m in African cities by 2020 Growth of meat-eating middle class
Growth of Middle Class        • 100m  600m          in India alone          over 20 years         > $6,000 a year income
The race to secure commodities
Energy as US National Security Issue       Engineering shortages
66% of over 50s in Asia by 2050• 81 million now  over 60 in  India• Big impact on  China growth
EuropeDying 4 couples needed toproduce just one great- grandchild
75% of all US and UK wealth  owned by those over 65
Ethics         Feminisation of Marketing Women will drive  70% of retail  purchasing decisions  in next decade 70% of on...
1 millionvoters over90 years old in Italy by    2026
When Will You Feel Old ?YOUTH   FIRST LIFER   SECOND LIFER   SENIOR
Can we stop ageing ?
Urban        Obesity – Growing Challenge• Pressure on  airlines to  charge  differently• Seat design• Bed design
Genetic Prophecy – Are We Ready?
Genes for speech, memory, criminality, depression, obesity and stable marriage• FOXP2 gene is vital to language and speech...
Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boostalphalipoic acid and acetyl-carnitine improves energy levels             in rats, as w...
Permanent Hair Colour• Adenovirus• Infected mouse hair cells• Permanent colour change
Treatment which restores andmaintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries – and helps  wrinkled skin. Global sales?
Grow New Teeth• Pigs teeth  grown inside  rats• Mice grow new  teeth from nerve  cells / gum  tissue
Urban        Successful Heart repair • Inject bone   marrow stem   cells after   bypass • Improves heart   function
Near-perfect repair ofheart or brain damage following coronary /        strokeusing adult stem cells
YourBrain CanRepair ItselfDaily
Negligible senescence is a reality• Rockfish,  Turtles,  some  Whales• No signs of  getting old
Tribal         Positive Tribalism = Values People need to  belong Sense of identity Community Family
Every strong brand creates a tribe
Global instability from growing gap between rich and poor
Africa growth in oil production• Already supplies  12% of world’s oil• Libya 22%• Nigeria 8th largest  oil nation
How many people would it take tostop all oil production in Nigeria?
SMSRevolution
"Perfection!, Wonderful hotel.Good value, beautiful views.“Faro Sept 20, 2008This was the most beautiful hotel... “Worst h...
To discuss – general groups•   Most important issues raised – for you•   Most important issues left out•   Disagreements ?...
One Bank   or justBreak It Up!
Unipolar to Multipolar
Emerging Economies  China
$24bn corporation. One of world’s most cost-     efficient aluminium and copper producers.    Hindalco = Fortune 500 Compa...
Expect 150,000 branded stores    in India alone by 2025
•   $4bn turnover•   $1bn profit•   40% growth in 2007•   Training 25,000 new IT graduates a year
WHY “OLD” OUTSOURCINGSTORY IN INDIA NEARLY OVER
All innovation is divergent
Don’t (always) believe market          research !
Vodafone Amex Nokia Google
Mobile phone becomes bank card• All retail cards  mobile• Ticketing  mobile• Remittances  mobile
Card market for 60 million people•   UK cards $1.3 billion pa by 2010•   Credit card debt $100bn•   Average interest rate ...
European Democracy?• Should EU have right to impose decisions  on an EU nation?• Votes in proportion to size?  – 83 millio...
Nato Democracy?
India: another religious conflict• Dec 2007: 100 churches destoyed in  Orissa• Expect ongoing religious violence – mainly ...
India: 160-200m Dalits -        Uprising            • Expect unrest and              government              changes      ...
Indonesia: Islamic radicalisation       88% of 200 million• Expect struggle for political power by  radical groups in Indo...
• Civilian armies in cities• Young children carrying weapons• Passionate fighters who really want to  die• People movements
Asymmetric Threats• 1 ton car bomb  $2bn damage  – Nat West Tower – London 1993• 1 computer virus  global disruption• 1 ...
Future is about Justice      • Patent breaking will increase      • Global supply from poorest        nations      • Publi...
Sustainability
Global Warming - facts
CO2 and Earth Temperature                                                                                    Future?Dip eq...
Bangladesh: climate threat• Expect blame for plight of millions to be  placed on worst polluters – flooding and  diaster
Carbon Neutral  100% by 2016• Offset energy in  manufacturing• Offset lifetime  power
Government Action (EU)• Subsidies  – 58% for fossil fuels  – 29% for nuclear• Regulations• Will impact energy markets for ...
Why Biofuels Are No Answer
18% of 2008 US grain  fuel• 20 million acres lost• 33% 2007 corn crop   fuel• EU also 5% gasoline and  diesel from food ...
33 nations threatened with instability – World bank
Morocco, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Mauritania, Niger, Uzbekistan,            Senegal, Haiti, Bolivia Indonesia• Cameroon 24 peopl...
“Crime against humanity”• “The United States and the European Union  have taken “criminal path” by contributing to  explos...
Rebalancing Air Conditioning• Energy saving 30-50%• More stable temperature• Intelligent
Geothermal                    Heat Pumps•   70% new buildings in Sweden•   45% new buildings in New Zealand•   30% new bui...
Street Lights• 5  2% of US energy• 120 million EU street  lamps• 75% replace in 15 years  at unit cost of $750  including...
Compliance with every regulation today could put you out of business   - Insider dealing was thought smart –- Bribes were ...
Future is about talent• Improve image• Win moral  arguments
Ethical          Crisis of Purpose at Work • 90% of 30-40 year olds want to leave   conventional business jobs • 60% of 25...
Employee Passion / Engagement• Gallup meta-survey > 10 million people• Businesses in top half of engagement  score  – 86% ...
Making a Difference
Ethics         Companies talk about • Growth • Profits • Shareholder value   ( + customers…)
Ethics         Individuals talk about…              • Their own personal                needs              • Their family ...
Ultimate business slogan•   For individuals – your own needs•   For family – people close to you•   For community – neighb...
To discuss – general groups•   Most important issues raised•   Most important issues left out•   Disagreements ?•   Clarif...
What kind of Leadership ?
Slides: globalchange.com/ppt          11 million different visitorsFast, Urban,And UniversalOrRadical, EthicalAnd Tribal ?
Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of    15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most  influential ...
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Leadership in a rapidly changing world  - Conference keynote speaker
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Leadership in a rapidly changing world - Conference keynote speaker

230
-1

Published on

"http://www.globalchange.com/leadership Leadership, managing rapid change in a globalized digital world. High velocity decision making with multiple strategies for growth in different circumstances. The world is changing faster than you can hold a board meeting. Shortened production cycles. Accelerating change and business transformation. Viral events, economic chaos and crisis. Managing multiple risks. How lucky are you in business? Being prepared for the unexpected. Contingency planning.
What is leadership? Secrets of leadership, change management and turning strategy into reality. Leadership quotes and leadership styles. Small business leadership and multinationals. Team leadership, organograms and organizational structures. Leadership qualities, leadership development in crisis, and how to develop strong leadership. Leadership programmes and effective leadership. Motivational leadership, and why motivation matters. Leadership in a crisis. Leadership to command attention, win trust, connect with passion. Leadership ethics and values, leadership development. Business and not-for-profit leadership. Why all people can show leadership depending on situation Dealing with conflict in leadership teams. Integrity, ethics and values in leaders. "

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
230
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Leadership in a rapidly changing world - Conference keynote speaker

  1. 1. Leadership in a rapidly changing worldDr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
  2. 2. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50) Leadership in a rapidly changing world (2008) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.
  3. 3. F astU rbanT ribalU niversalR adicalE thical Huge Opportunities
  4. 4. Wild Cards: Risk ManagementLow probability, high impact events
  5. 5. Wild Cards: Risk ManagementLow probability, high impact events
  6. 6. Future of Iran nuclear programme
  7. 7. Military Challenges in• Towns, cities, forests, jungle, mountains, valleys
  8. 8. Bird Flu – could kill 100 million
  9. 9. 10% Cleveland homes repossessed 1 in 146 homes new action in Nevada – Las Vegas 744,000 homeless in July 2008 Bus Tour
  10. 10. Chance of 2 in 24 people sharing same birthday
  11. 11. Chance of 2 in 24 people sharing same birthday
  12. 12. Chance of 2 in 30 people sharing same birthday
  13. 13. Chance of 2 in 50 people sharing same birthday
  14. 14. Absurd Valuations• “Unknown trillions of dollars being traded in non-regulated derivatives” US govt• Marking to current value• Washington Mutual sold for $1.9bn – But has $310bn of “assets”
  15. 15. Washington Mutual Shares
  16. 16. HBOS v RBS
  17. 17. UBS v Credit Suisse
  18. 18. Financial Crises• 18 banking crises in US since 2nd WW – Low interest rates  property and stocks boom – Current a/c deficit – Capital inflows increase – Rising public debt – Often deregulation – Some see it coming but who wants to act alone?
  19. 19. “Nationalisation” of Banking• Put capital into banks – Buy new shares – Reduce value of other people’s shares• Take “risky” debt off their books – Swop loans secured against property for loans secured against government promise – Fair price per $1 million of debt • Assumes property prices partially recover • Assumes loans held for some years • Assumes stability in market reduces defaults
  20. 20. What will happen to all the cash?• Money out of shares• Money out of propertyEvery month cash grows from NEW pension fund savings  ????$23 trillion under management Jan 2007 in 11 major nations
  21. 21. More to Life than FinancialService Companies / Banks
  22. 22. 1 billion childrenMost peoplelive in cities
  23. 23. China – 300m move to cities by 2020 748m in African cities by 2020 Growth of meat-eating middle class
  24. 24. Growth of Middle Class • 100m  600m in India alone over 20 years > $6,000 a year income
  25. 25. The race to secure commodities
  26. 26. Energy as US National Security Issue Engineering shortages
  27. 27. 66% of over 50s in Asia by 2050• 81 million now over 60 in India• Big impact on China growth
  28. 28. EuropeDying 4 couples needed toproduce just one great- grandchild
  29. 29. 75% of all US and UK wealth owned by those over 65
  30. 30. Ethics Feminisation of Marketing Women will drive 70% of retail purchasing decisions in next decade 70% of online banking is by women In some countries – most of the vacation decisions
  31. 31. 1 millionvoters over90 years old in Italy by 2026
  32. 32. When Will You Feel Old ?YOUTH FIRST LIFER SECOND LIFER SENIOR
  33. 33. Can we stop ageing ?
  34. 34. Urban Obesity – Growing Challenge• Pressure on airlines to charge differently• Seat design• Bed design
  35. 35. Genetic Prophecy – Are We Ready?
  36. 36. Genes for speech, memory, criminality, depression, obesity and stable marriage• FOXP2 gene is vital to language and speech development• 17CREB genes are all needed for learning and memory• Vasopressin receptor gene on chromosme 12 – huge effect on mating and pair binding in prairie voles.• Low monoamine oxidase A activity on X chromosome strongly linked to violent, antisocial or criminal behaviour• Gene for obesity: 6% have MC4R gene• Gene linked to serotonin production strongly linked to depression. CREB1 carries 80% risk of depression – in women
  37. 37. Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boostalphalipoic acid and acetyl-carnitine improves energy levels in rats, as well as mental capability
  38. 38. Permanent Hair Colour• Adenovirus• Infected mouse hair cells• Permanent colour change
  39. 39. Treatment which restores andmaintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales?
  40. 40. Grow New Teeth• Pigs teeth grown inside rats• Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum tissue
  41. 41. Urban Successful Heart repair • Inject bone marrow stem cells after bypass • Improves heart function
  42. 42. Near-perfect repair ofheart or brain damage following coronary / strokeusing adult stem cells
  43. 43. YourBrain CanRepair ItselfDaily
  44. 44. Negligible senescence is a reality• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales• No signs of getting old
  45. 45. Tribal Positive Tribalism = Values People need to belong Sense of identity Community Family
  46. 46. Every strong brand creates a tribe
  47. 47. Global instability from growing gap between rich and poor
  48. 48. Africa growth in oil production• Already supplies 12% of world’s oil• Libya 22%• Nigeria 8th largest oil nation
  49. 49. How many people would it take tostop all oil production in Nigeria?
  50. 50. SMSRevolution
  51. 51. "Perfection!, Wonderful hotel.Good value, beautiful views.“Faro Sept 20, 2008This was the most beautiful hotel... “Worst hotel I have ever been in.Should be closed down.“Paris Sept 18, 2008NEVER stay in this terrible place...
  52. 52. To discuss – general groups• Most important issues raised – for you• Most important issues left out• Disagreements ?• Clarification ?• Specific industries / regions / issues
  53. 53. One Bank or justBreak It Up!
  54. 54. Unipolar to Multipolar
  55. 55. Emerging Economies  China
  56. 56. $24bn corporation. One of world’s most cost- efficient aluminium and copper producers. Hindalco = Fortune 500 Company. Largestaluminium rolling company No. 1 in viscose staple fibre. • The 3rd largest producer of insulators. • The 4th largest producer of carbon black. • The 11th largest cement producer globally
  57. 57. Expect 150,000 branded stores in India alone by 2025
  58. 58. • $4bn turnover• $1bn profit• 40% growth in 2007• Training 25,000 new IT graduates a year
  59. 59. WHY “OLD” OUTSOURCINGSTORY IN INDIA NEARLY OVER
  60. 60. All innovation is divergent
  61. 61. Don’t (always) believe market research !
  62. 62. Vodafone Amex Nokia Google
  63. 63. Mobile phone becomes bank card• All retail cards  mobile• Ticketing  mobile• Remittances  mobile
  64. 64. Card market for 60 million people• UK cards $1.3 billion pa by 2010• Credit card debt $100bn• Average interest rate 16% (March 07)• 1% of $400bn is $4bn of incentives
  65. 65. European Democracy?• Should EU have right to impose decisions on an EU nation?• Votes in proportion to size? – 83 million Germany – 300,000 Malta
  66. 66. Nato Democracy?
  67. 67. India: another religious conflict• Dec 2007: 100 churches destoyed in Orissa• Expect ongoing religious violence – mainly Hindu v Christian; Hindu v Muslim
  68. 68. India: 160-200m Dalits - Uprising • Expect unrest and government changes • Many millions quietly converting as way to exit the caste system
  69. 69. Indonesia: Islamic radicalisation 88% of 200 million• Expect struggle for political power by radical groups in Indonesia, Malaysia
  70. 70. • Civilian armies in cities• Young children carrying weapons• Passionate fighters who really want to die• People movements
  71. 71. Asymmetric Threats• 1 ton car bomb  $2bn damage – Nat West Tower – London 1993• 1 computer virus  global disruption• 1 YouTube video  global PR damage 80 : 20 rule becomes 99.9 : 0.00001
  72. 72. Future is about Justice • Patent breaking will increase • Global supply from poorest nations • Public-owned research  direct to generic production • Public ownership of knowledge
  73. 73. Sustainability
  74. 74. Global Warming - facts
  75. 75. CO2 and Earth Temperature Future?Dip equivalent to 0.5 mile of ice over xsome of northern hemisphere 15,000years ago Source: „Vostok“ (Antarctica) ice cores, World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA
  76. 76. Bangladesh: climate threat• Expect blame for plight of millions to be placed on worst polluters – flooding and diaster
  77. 77. Carbon Neutral  100% by 2016• Offset energy in manufacturing• Offset lifetime power
  78. 78. Government Action (EU)• Subsidies – 58% for fossil fuels – 29% for nuclear• Regulations• Will impact energy markets for 50 years
  79. 79. Why Biofuels Are No Answer
  80. 80. 18% of 2008 US grain  fuel• 20 million acres lost• 33% 2007 corn crop  fuel• EU also 5% gasoline and diesel from food by 2010
  81. 81. 33 nations threatened with instability – World bank
  82. 82. Morocco, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Mauritania, Niger, Uzbekistan, Senegal, Haiti, Bolivia Indonesia• Cameroon 24 people killed, 1,600 arrested• Indonesia 10,000 outside presidential palace - soya bean prices rose >50% in a month• Egypt 7 people die in fights or of exhaustion queuing for subsidised bread• Burkina Faso Riots in three towns• Guinea Five anti-government riots last 18mths• Pakistan 1000s of troops guard food trucks
  83. 83. “Crime against humanity”• “The United States and the European Union have taken “criminal path” by contributing to explosive rise in global food prices through using food crops to produce biofuels”• UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food• UN Press Release: 28 April 2008
  84. 84. Rebalancing Air Conditioning• Energy saving 30-50%• More stable temperature• Intelligent
  85. 85. Geothermal Heat Pumps• 70% new buildings in Sweden• 45% new buildings in New Zealand• 30% new buildings in Switzerland• Plus better insulation• Up to 50% energy savings• Payback 15 years
  86. 86. Street Lights• 5  2% of US energy• 120 million EU street lamps• 75% replace in 15 years at unit cost of $750 including labour
  87. 87. Compliance with every regulation today could put you out of business - Insider dealing was thought smart –- Bribes were set against corporation tax -
  88. 88. Future is about talent• Improve image• Win moral arguments
  89. 89. Ethical Crisis of Purpose at Work • 90% of 30-40 year olds want to leave conventional business jobs • 60% of 25-35 year olds feel unfulfilled in careers • 83% say they are having a “quarter-life crisis” • 90% are looking for a higher purpose at work • 59% say they seen no meaningful purpose in their work or organisation Connect with passion to win war for talent
  90. 90. Employee Passion / Engagement• Gallup meta-survey > 10 million people• Businesses in top half of engagement score – 86% more likely to have better customer metrics – 70% more likely to have low staff turnover – 70% more likely to be highly productive – 44% more likely to be profitable• Only 33% of US employees are engaged
  91. 91. Making a Difference
  92. 92. Ethics Companies talk about • Growth • Profits • Shareholder value ( + customers…)
  93. 93. Ethics Individuals talk about… • Their own personal needs • Their family and friends • Their community • The world they live in …emotion
  94. 94. Ultimate business slogan• For individuals – your own needs• For family – people close to you• For community – neighbourhood or nation• For the whole earth – the good of all Leaders tell their own good news story
  95. 95. To discuss – general groups• Most important issues raised• Most important issues left out• Disagreements ?• Clarification ?• Specific industries / regions / issues
  96. 96. What kind of Leadership ?
  97. 97. Slides: globalchange.com/ppt 11 million different visitorsFast, Urban,And UniversalOrRadical, EthicalAnd Tribal ?
  98. 98. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50) Leadership in a rapidly changing world (2008) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.

×