How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon at Global Trends Forum in Latvia
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How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States. Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon at Global Trends Forum in Latvia

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Future trends and impact on Baltic States with special emphasis on Latvia: technology, big data, informatics, health care, biotech, demographics, global economy predictions, future of manufacturing, ...

Future trends and impact on Baltic States with special emphasis on Latvia: technology, big data, informatics, health care, biotech, demographics, global economy predictions, future of manufacturing, offshoring, reshoring, nearshoring, future of supply chain, future of retail, e-commerce, m-commerce, cyberattacks and hacking threats, future of banking, mobile payments and financial services. Future of energy, sustainability, culture and corporate ethics.
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How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States. Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon at Global Trends Forum in Latvia Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 Take Hold of the Future
  • 2. ! ALL      BIG      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED   ! ! ! ! ! ! ! MOST    DEBATES    ABOUT    TIMING  
  • 3. ! One thing will dominate ALL FUTURE
  • 4. The future is about EMOTION
  • 5. !15
  • 6. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles 19
  • 7. 21
  • 8. 22
  • 9. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles 23
  • 10. ! Strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  • 11. ! Agility requires Simplicity ! Small = Fast
  • 12. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
  • 13. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  • 14. !30
  • 15. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  • 16. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  • 17. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  • 18. Latvia  and  Estonia  2005-­‐2013  GDP  %
  • 19. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  • 20. >40%  WDP  in  Asia  by  2015 —IMF  -­‐  adjusted  for  Purchasing  Power  Parity   —50%  populaXon  in  India  under  25  years  old
  • 21. $3.4  trillion   !
  • 22. $2.4  trillion   ! Reserves  
  • 23. • ! $2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month   ! ! Expect  relaxed   views  about   INFLATION    
  • 24. 42
  • 25. 80%  lost  in  seconds  
  • 26.                
  • 27. Growth of Middle Class in Africa 250m people - $2 trillion by 2040 !
  • 28. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • 29. ! 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
  • 30. Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child ! 13% loss of population in Latvia in 10 years Mainly younger people in “brain drain”
  • 31. 75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by   those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women
  • 32. Can we stop ageing ?
  • 33. Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries, improves heart failure – and helps wrinkled skin.
  • 34. •Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats   •Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum Grow New Teeth
  • 35. Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
  • 36. Confidential HSV1  causes  cold  sores.  When   engineered  as  Seprehvir,  it  is   harmless  to  healthy  ;ssue. ! • Infect and kill cancer tumour cells • No damage to healthy tissue Viruses to cure cancer ?
  • 37. • Harvard Bioscience • Bioreactor • Bone marrow stem cells • Polymer scaffold
  • 38. • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay 60 Monkeys on diet live longer
  • 39. Slow  or  no  ageing  is  a  reality  in  animals Japan  women  gain  15  minutes  of  life  expectancy  every  hour • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! • No signs of getting old
  • 40. lPeople like to belong lSense of identity lCommunity lFamily lPersonal advisor “Relationship Retailing” !
  • 41. !64
  • 42. 95%  EU  bandwidth  soon  video  
  • 43. 1  trillion  pages  a  month   21%  of  Latvians  use  Facebook  
  • 44. Would recommend you to a friend ? !
  • 45. "Perfection!,Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“! Telford UK, May 20, 2013
 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. 
 “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“  Paris April, 2013
 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
  • 46. ! Scale - Innovation Speed Large enough for the future ? Eat or be Eaten, Strategic Mergers, Techno-Partnerships
  • 47. Nearshoring  Boom  
  • 48.  11%  wage  inflaGon  in  China   in  2013  -­‐  expect  similar  in  2014   Bank  of  America
  • 49.  Impact  of  stronger  Chinese  currency     and  tougher  polluGon  controls
  • 50. Mega     Chains
  • 51. In  many  EU  naGons,  up  to  70%  of   retail  spending  is  in  <8  companies
  • 52. Expect  huge  growth  of  large  chains  in  Latvia
  • 53. HUGE   MALLS  
  • 54. — Click to edit Master text styles
  • 55. e-­‐commerce  hits  $1.5  trillion  2014   12%  all  UK  retail
  • 56. MOBILEMobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile 44% Latvians using smartphones (LG Electronics / Mindshare Survey)
  • 57. LocaGon   MarkeGng   is  next   BIG  THING
  • 58. ! Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil ! 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store ! Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
  • 59. Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com   items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
  • 60. Home  delivery  when  no  one  at  home?
  • 61. 92 3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries
  • 62. CUSTOMER  CHOICE   200  million  payments  globally !
  • 63. ! Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers   $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP   Tanzania  9m  people   35  naGon  links  via  HomeSend  Hub  
  • 64. 96 1.7bn  phone   users  are   unbanked
  • 65. Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                     TelcoBanks
  • 66. 98 2m  businesses  use     SQUARE     in  US
  • 67. bitcoin 99 Bitcoin  
  • 68. Internet of Things
  • 69. 1.5m components in supply chain
  • 70. 90% all global data generated in last 2 years Big  Data  
  • 71. • 90%  Microsoe  R&D   CLOUD
  • 72. Aramco - 30,000 computers hit - files lost
  • 73. 5.5  billion  cyberagacks   42%  increase  /  year   ! >160Gbps  in  denial  of  service   1000  major  agacks  /  hr  in  UK   Worries  about  US  Prism  /  security  services  
  • 74. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  • 75. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 ! 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  • 76. Boom Bust
  • 77. 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawaGs  wind   Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China 57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  
  • 78. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total power use QUEBEC  from  ARIZONA   MOSCOW  from  SAHARA
  • 79. Solar  cell  generaGon  parity  
  • 80. Falling  solar  cell  prices  
  • 81. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert “40% EU power = wind by 2050” Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
  • 82. Germany  Power  Surplus ! • In  June  2013   • Electricity  prices  became  negaGve     • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!
  • 83. •Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids •500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project ! ! ! ! •China planning to power Moscow
  • 84. Only sell what you believe in and would sell to your family and friends The  only  corporate  value  worth  having  
  • 85. Teams  in  top  half  of  Engagement   86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable — 10 million surveyed by Gallup

  • 86. ! Beyond Compliance ! Perfect compliance will keep leaders out of prison but cannot protect brands, because public expectations change
  • 87. Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profits  and   AcGvist  Movements   ! Connect  with  all  the  passions   people  have  and  they  will  follow   you  to  the  ends  of  the  earth,   promote  what  you  do  with  pride,   and  may  even  be  willing  to  work  for   you  for  next  to  nothing  
  • 88. Building  a  Beger  World
  • 89. RESOURCES ! >500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon ! ! Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com !