Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd


Take Hold of the Future
!
ALL	
  	
  	
  BIG	
  	
  	
  TRENDS	
  	
  	
  ARE	
  	
  	
  RELATED	
  
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
MOST	
  	
  DEBATES	
  	
  ABOU...
!
One thing will
dominate ALL
FUTURE
The future is about
EMOTION
!15
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
19
21
22
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
23
!
Strategies often
overtaken by events
!
World can change faster than
you can hold a board meeting
!
Agility
requires
Simplicity
!
Small = Fast
WGP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  (%,constant	
  prices)	
  
US	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
!30
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
EU	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
Latvia	
  and	
  Estonia	
  2005-­‐2013	
  GDP	
  %
Vietnam	
  GDP	
  1985-­‐2011	
  
>40%	
  WDP	
  in	
  Asia	
  by	
  2015
—IMF	
  -­‐	
  adjusted	
  for	
  Purchasing	
  Power	
  Parity	
  
—50%	
  popu...
$3.4	
  trillion	
  
!
$2.4	
  trillion	
  
!
Reserves	
  
•
!
$2.3	
  trillion	
  US	
  +	
  $65bn	
  per	
  month	
  
!
!
Expect	
  relaxed	
  
views	
  about	
  
INFLATION	
  	
  
42
80%	
  lost	
  in	
  seconds	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
Growth of Middle Class in Africa
250m people - $2 trillion by 2040
!
300 million move to cities in China and
475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
Europe Dying
!
4 couples to
produce single
great-grand
child
!
13% loss of population in Latvia in 10 years
Mainly younger...
75%	
  of	
  all	
  US	
  and	
  UK	
  wealth	
  owned	
  by	
  
those	
  over	
  65	
  -­‐	
  mostly	
  women
Can we stop ageing ?
Treatment which restores and
maintains the youthful elasticity of
hardened arteries, improves heart
failure – and helps wr...
•Pigs	
  teeth	
  grown	
  inside	
  rats	
  
•Mice	
  grow	
  new	
  teeth	
  from	
  nerve	
  cells	
  /	
  gum
Grow New...
Repair Heart / Brain
with stem cells
Confidential
HSV1	
  causes	
  cold	
  sores.	
  When	
  
engineered	
  as	
  Seprehvir,	
  it	
  is	
  
harmless	
  to	
 ...
• Harvard Bioscience	

• Bioreactor 	

• Bone marrow stem cells	

• Polymer scaffold
• After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories
• Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay
60
Monk...
Slow	
  or	
  no	
  ageing	
  is	
  a	
  reality	
  in	
  animals
Japan	
  women	
  gain	
  15	
  minutes	
  of	
  life	
 ...
lPeople like to belong
lSense of identity
lCommunity
lFamily
lPersonal advisor
“Relationship Retailing”
!
!64
95%	
  EU	
  bandwidth	
  soon	
  video	
  
1	
  trillion	
  pages	
  a	
  month	
  
21%	
  of	
  Latvians	
  use	
  Facebook	
  
Would recommend
you to a friend ?
!
"Perfection!,Wonderful hotel. Good value,
beautiful views.“!
Telford UK, May 20, 2013

This was the most beautiful hotel. ...
!
Scale - Innovation Speed
Large enough for the future ?
Eat or be Eaten, Strategic Mergers, Techno-Partnerships
Nearshoring	
  Boom	
  
 11%	
  wage	
  inflaGon	
  in	
  China	
  
in	
  2013	
  -­‐	
  expect	
  similar	
  in	
  2014	
  
Bank	
  of	
  America
 Impact	
  of	
  stronger	
  Chinese	
  currency	
  	
  
and	
  tougher	
  polluGon	
  controls
Mega	
  	
  
Chains
In	
  many	
  EU	
  naGons,	
  up	
  to	
  70%	
  of	
  
retail	
  spending	
  is	
  in	
  <8	
  companies
Expect	
  huge	
  growth	
  of	
  large	
  chains	
  in	
  Latvia
HUGE	
  
MALLS	
  
— Click to edit Master text styles
e-­‐commerce	
  hits	
  $1.5	
  trillion	
  2014	
  
12%	
  all	
  UK	
  retail
MOBILEMobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013
50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
44% Latvians using...
LocaGon	
  
MarkeGng	
  
is	
  next	
  
BIG	
  THING
!
Online / physical
worlds become one in Brazil
!
50% research online - buy in store
40% research in store - buy online
89...
Over	
  4000	
  road	
  hauliers	
  in	
  EU
1.3bn	
  home	
  delivered	
  e-­‐com	
  
items	
  in	
  UK	
  a	
  year	
  (...
Home	
  delivery	
  when	
  no	
  one	
  at	
  home?
92
3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months
Chosen by up to 50% customers for
deliveries
CUSTOMER	
  CHOICE	
  
200	
  million	
  payments	
  globally
!
!
Kenya	
  -­‐	
  17m	
  customers	
  
$9bn	
  pa	
  -­‐	
  >33%	
  GDP	
  
Tanzania	
  9m	
  people	
  
35	
  naGon	
  li...
96
1.7bn	
  phone	
  
users	
  are	
  
unbanked
Free mobile devices	

calls / web / TV / games / pay	

Higher income model
2010	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
 ...
98
2m	
  businesses	
  use	
  	
  
SQUARE	
  	
  
in	
  US
bitcoin
99
Bitcoin	
  
Internet of Things
1.5m components in supply chain
90% all global data
generated in
last 2 years
Big	
  Data	
  
• 90%	
  Microsoe	
  R&D	
  
CLOUD
Aramco - 30,000 computers hit - files lost
5.5	
  billion	
  cyberagacks	
  
42%	
  increase	
  /	
  year	
  
!
>160Gbps	
  in	
  denial	
  of	
  service	
  
1000	
 ...
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom
driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33%
US supplies
3.3m US jobs
$468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
!
200 years global supply
Up from ...
Boom
Bust
5	
  coal	
  plants	
  replace	
  with	
  gas	
  =	
  9000	
  megawaGs	
  wind	
  
Coal	
  prices	
  fall	
  =	
  more	
  ...
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day

7,000 times total power use
QUEBEC	
  from	
  ARIZONA	
  
MOSCOW	
  from	
  SAHARA
Solar	
  cell	
  generaGon	
  parity	
  
Falling	
  solar	
  cell	
  prices	
  
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day

7,000 times total global power use
Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
“40% EU power = win...
Germany	
  Power	
  Surplus
!
• In	
  June	
  2013	
  
• Electricity	
  prices	
  became	
  negaGve	
  	
  
• -­‐	
  minus...
•Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids	

•500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project	

!
!
!
!
•China planning to power Mosc...
Only sell what you believe in
and would sell to your family
and friends
The	
  only	
  corporate	
  value	
  worth	
  havi...
Teams	
  in	
  top	
  half	
  of	
  Engagement	
  
86% more likely to have better customer metrics	

70% more likely to ha...
!
Beyond
Compliance
!
Perfect compliance will keep leaders
out of prison but cannot protect brands,
because public expecta...
Lesson	
  from	
  Non-­‐Profits	
  and	
  
AcGvist	
  Movements	
  
!
Connect	
  with	
  all	
  the	
  passions	
  
people	...
Building	
  a	
  Beger	
  World
RESOURCES
!
>500 videos of Keynotes
http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon
!
!
Global Trends Website:
http://www.globalchange.com...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States.  Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon...
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How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States. Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon at Global Trends Forum in Latvia

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Future trends and impact on Baltic States with special emphasis on Latvia: technology, big data, informatics, health care, biotech, demographics, global economy predictions, future of manufacturing, offshoring, reshoring, nearshoring, future of supply chain, future of retail, e-commerce, m-commerce, cyberattacks and hacking threats, future of banking, mobile payments and financial services. Future of energy, sustainability, culture and corporate ethics.
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How your world will change: future of consumers, business and government in Baltic States. Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon at Global Trends Forum in Latvia

  1. 1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 Take Hold of the Future
  2. 2. ! ALL      BIG      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED   ! ! ! ! ! ! ! MOST    DEBATES    ABOUT    TIMING  
  3. 3. ! One thing will dominate ALL FUTURE
  4. 4. The future is about EMOTION
  5. 5. !15
  6. 6. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles 19
  7. 7. 21
  8. 8. 22
  9. 9. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles 23
  10. 10. ! Strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  11. 11. ! Agility requires Simplicity ! Small = Fast
  12. 12. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
  13. 13. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  14. 14. !30
  15. 15. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  16. 16. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  17. 17. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  18. 18. Latvia  and  Estonia  2005-­‐2013  GDP  %
  19. 19. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  20. 20. >40%  WDP  in  Asia  by  2015 —IMF  -­‐  adjusted  for  Purchasing  Power  Parity   —50%  populaXon  in  India  under  25  years  old
  21. 21. $3.4  trillion   !
  22. 22. $2.4  trillion   ! Reserves  
  23. 23. • ! $2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month   ! ! Expect  relaxed   views  about   INFLATION    
  24. 24. 42
  25. 25. 80%  lost  in  seconds  
  26. 26.                
  27. 27. Growth of Middle Class in Africa 250m people - $2 trillion by 2040 !
  28. 28. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  29. 29. ! 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
  30. 30. Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child ! 13% loss of population in Latvia in 10 years Mainly younger people in “brain drain”
  31. 31. 75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by   those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women
  32. 32. Can we stop ageing ?
  33. 33. Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries, improves heart failure – and helps wrinkled skin.
  34. 34. •Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats   •Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum Grow New Teeth
  35. 35. Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
  36. 36. Confidential HSV1  causes  cold  sores.  When   engineered  as  Seprehvir,  it  is   harmless  to  healthy  ;ssue. ! • Infect and kill cancer tumour cells • No damage to healthy tissue Viruses to cure cancer ?
  37. 37. • Harvard Bioscience • Bioreactor • Bone marrow stem cells • Polymer scaffold
  38. 38. • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay 60 Monkeys on diet live longer
  39. 39. Slow  or  no  ageing  is  a  reality  in  animals Japan  women  gain  15  minutes  of  life  expectancy  every  hour • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! • No signs of getting old
  40. 40. lPeople like to belong lSense of identity lCommunity lFamily lPersonal advisor “Relationship Retailing” !
  41. 41. !64
  42. 42. 95%  EU  bandwidth  soon  video  
  43. 43. 1  trillion  pages  a  month   21%  of  Latvians  use  Facebook  
  44. 44. Would recommend you to a friend ? !
  45. 45. "Perfection!,Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“! Telford UK, May 20, 2013
 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. 
 “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“  Paris April, 2013
 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
  46. 46. ! Scale - Innovation Speed Large enough for the future ? Eat or be Eaten, Strategic Mergers, Techno-Partnerships
  47. 47. Nearshoring  Boom  
  48. 48.  11%  wage  inflaGon  in  China   in  2013  -­‐  expect  similar  in  2014   Bank  of  America
  49. 49.  Impact  of  stronger  Chinese  currency     and  tougher  polluGon  controls
  50. 50. Mega     Chains
  51. 51. In  many  EU  naGons,  up  to  70%  of   retail  spending  is  in  <8  companies
  52. 52. Expect  huge  growth  of  large  chains  in  Latvia
  53. 53. HUGE   MALLS  
  54. 54. — Click to edit Master text styles
  55. 55. e-­‐commerce  hits  $1.5  trillion  2014   12%  all  UK  retail
  56. 56. MOBILEMobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile 44% Latvians using smartphones (LG Electronics / Mindshare Survey)
  57. 57. LocaGon   MarkeGng   is  next   BIG  THING
  58. 58. ! Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil ! 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store ! Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
  59. 59. Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com   items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
  60. 60. Home  delivery  when  no  one  at  home?
  61. 61. 92 3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries
  62. 62. CUSTOMER  CHOICE   200  million  payments  globally !
  63. 63. ! Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers   $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP   Tanzania  9m  people   35  naGon  links  via  HomeSend  Hub  
  64. 64. 96 1.7bn  phone   users  are   unbanked
  65. 65. Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                     TelcoBanks
  66. 66. 98 2m  businesses  use     SQUARE     in  US
  67. 67. bitcoin 99 Bitcoin  
  68. 68. Internet of Things
  69. 69. 1.5m components in supply chain
  70. 70. 90% all global data generated in last 2 years Big  Data  
  71. 71. • 90%  Microsoe  R&D   CLOUD
  72. 72. Aramco - 30,000 computers hit - files lost
  73. 73. 5.5  billion  cyberagacks   42%  increase  /  year   ! >160Gbps  in  denial  of  service   1000  major  agacks  /  hr  in  UK   Worries  about  US  Prism  /  security  services  
  74. 74. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  75. 75. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 ! 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  76. 76. Boom Bust
  77. 77. 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawaGs  wind   Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China 57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  
  78. 78. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total power use QUEBEC  from  ARIZONA   MOSCOW  from  SAHARA
  79. 79. Solar  cell  generaGon  parity  
  80. 80. Falling  solar  cell  prices  
  81. 81. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert “40% EU power = wind by 2050” Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
  82. 82. Germany  Power  Surplus ! • In  June  2013   • Electricity  prices  became  negaGve     • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!
  83. 83. •Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids •500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project ! ! ! ! •China planning to power Moscow
  84. 84. Only sell what you believe in and would sell to your family and friends The  only  corporate  value  worth  having  
  85. 85. Teams  in  top  half  of  Engagement   86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable — 10 million surveyed by Gallup

  86. 86. ! Beyond Compliance ! Perfect compliance will keep leaders out of prison but cannot protect brands, because public expectations change
  87. 87. Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profits  and   AcGvist  Movements   ! Connect  with  all  the  passions   people  have  and  they  will  follow   you  to  the  ends  of  the  earth,   promote  what  you  do  with  pride,   and  may  even  be  willing  to  work  for   you  for  next  to  nothing  
  88. 88. Building  a  Beger  World
  89. 89. RESOURCES ! >500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon ! ! Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com !
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