How your future world will change - for Mitsui - keynote on global trends by Futurist Patrick Dixon

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Global trends presentation for Mitsui group. Keynote speaker on Futurist investment trends.

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How your future world will change - for Mitsui - keynote on global trends by Futurist Patrick Dixon

  1. 1. • Body Level One • Body Level Two • Body Level Three • Body Level Four • Body Level Five          Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 Take  Hold  of  the  Future   Six  Faces  of  Global  Change  
  2. 2. ! One word will dominate ALL FUTURE !
  3. 3. Complexity and scale create risks
  4. 4. ! Strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  5. 5. ! Leaders! with ! Agility
  6. 6. AGILE  CAREERS   ! Rota-ng  high  fliers  through   variety  of  stretching  jobs  in   different  sectors  and  regions  to   create  agile,  empowered   leaders  for  tomorrow  
  7. 7. AGILE  TRAINING   ! ! ! ! ! ! fast-­‐track  for  flexible,  agile  roles
  8. 8. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
  9. 9. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  10. 10. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  11. 11. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  12. 12. >40%  WDP  in  Asia  by  2015 —IMF  -­‐  adjusted  for  Purchasing  Power  Parity   —50%  popula-on  in  India  under  25  years  old
  13. 13. $3.4  trillion     !
  14. 14. $2.4  trillion     ! Reserves  
  15. 15. The future is about EMOTION
  16. 16.                
  17. 17. Why  need  to  look  beyond  market  research
  18. 18. Growth of Middle Class in Africa 250m people - $2 trillion by 2040 !
  19. 19. Middle Class! ! ! ! ! La-n  America  -­‐  50  million  more  people  in  last  10  years   ! Brazil:    113  million  -­‐  56%  popula-on   !
  20. 20. 300 million move to cities in China (66% of all seabourne trade in iron ore) 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  21. 21. ! ! Science,   technology   engineering,  
  22. 22. Most  STEM  graduates  in  emerging  markets  
  23. 23. China  and  India  dominate   STEM  degrees     including  post-­‐graduate  /  PhDs
  24. 24. China  travel  bookings  >$100bn  2013   $15bn  online  -­‐  500%  growth  2008-­‐13   ! ! ! ! ! !
  25. 25. 33 High  Speed  Rail  -­‐  compe-ng  with  Air  
  26. 26. •Click to edit Master text styles 34
  27. 27. • Body Level One • Body Level Two • Body Level Three • Body Level Four • Body Level Five 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years !
  28. 28. 1  week                                                      every  4  
  29. 29. ! Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child ! 1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time !
  30. 30. Older Customers Huge New Markets
  31. 31. Chronic Conditions – Multiple Needs • 100 million Americans have chronic conditions • 80% of health spending • 88% of all prescriptions • 70% of physician visits • 66% Medicare cost = people with 5+ conditions Almost all caused by one single factor
  32. 32. 65% health spend on those over 65 Most over 65 year olds in US are women - 23m : 17m AGE
  33. 33. • $75bn endoscopy market by 2022 ($23bn 2010)
  34. 34. Tele-Monitoring Ecosystem
  35. 35. • Fluidics • Biochemistry • Semiconductors • Genetics • Mathematics • Immunology • Robotics Read genome in 2 hours for $5,000
  36. 36. 90% all global data generated in last 2 years ! Sales of canned food in Mexico store = demand for more steel tins in China Big Data
  37. 37. Performance Shift in retail health care from health treatment to life enhancement
  38. 38. Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boost
 
 R-alpha-lipoic acid Acetyl-L-carnitine
  39. 39. •Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats   •Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum Grow New Teeth
  40. 40. following coronary / stroke using adult stem cells
 
 
 Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
  41. 41. Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales? Low blood pressure and total body lift ! ! ! ! ! ! Alteon
  42. 42. •Harvard Bioscience •Bioreactor •Bone marrow stem cells •Polymer scaffold
  43. 43. Confidential HSV1  causes  cold  sores.   When  engineered  as   Seprehvir  (HSV-­‐1716),  it  is   harmless  to  healthy  @ssue. •Oncolytic viruses •Infect and kill cancer tumour cells •No damage to healthy tissue •Evidence of impact in clinical trials •Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells •Micro-dose chemo, micro-dose radiotherapy Viruses to cure cancer ?
  44. 44. 52 • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay Monkeys on diet live longer
  45. 45. Slow or no ageing is a reality • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! • No signs of getting old Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) — 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise — 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam — 405 years Some animals do not seem to “age” in normal way
  46. 46. 1  trillion  pages  a  month   !
  47. 47. "Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“ 
 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. 
 “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“ NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick. 74  million  users  a  month   33%  business  travellers     post  comments
  48. 48. People love Cities and Offices
  49. 49. TeleworkingOnly 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based 60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)
  50. 50. Diversity  in   workplace  leads  to   diversity  in   marketplace  
  51. 51. 85%  of  leaders  of  largest  US  corpora-ons   say  diversity  is  key  to  innova-on Forbes  study
  52. 52. Diversity  linked  to  higher  sales,  market   share  and  profits,  talent  recruitment
  53. 53. Women  Outperform  Men   ! • Most  sales  to  women   • 60%  US  graduates   • 40%  primary  earners   • Most  women  leave   corporaEons  early   • Solve  talent  shortage UrbanTribal
  54. 54. Reproduce  own  image   ! Tend  to  recruit  people  with  familiar  name,  voice,  accent,  personality,  culture,   appearance  
  55. 55. ! Scale - Innovation Speed ! Eat  or  be  Eaten
  56. 56. How  commodity  wealth  can  strangle  economies UN study: exchange rate rises so other business uncompetitive, military spending rises, corruption rises, instability rises
  57. 57.  11%  wage  infla-on  in  China  in  2013  and  2014  
  58. 58.  Impact  of  stronger  Chinese  currency     and  tougher  pollu-on  controls
  59. 59. Nearshoring  Boom  
  60. 60. Manufacturing  in  Mexico  will   grow  for  US  market  
  61. 61. In  many  EU  na-ons,  up  to  70%  of  retail     spending  is  in  <8  companies
  62. 62. e-­‐commerce  hits  $1.5  trillion  2014   12%  all  UK  retail
  63. 63. Mobile6m  new  mobile  users  in  Mexico  in  2014   28%  popula-on  -­‐  highest  in  La-n  America   30m  smartphones  -­‐  up  49%  last  year   60%  of  25-­‐34  year  olds  using  smartphones  
  64. 64. MOBILEMobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
  65. 65. Loca-on  Marke-ng   ! ! ! ! is  next  BIG  THING
  66. 66. ! Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil ! 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store ! Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
  67. 67. Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com  items  in   UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
  68. 68. 80 3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for
  69. 69. Gold standard:
 10am orders for 3pm Delivery
 Anywhere in same country 10am  orders  for  3pm   Delivery
  70. 70. Internet of Things
  71. 71. 1.5m components tracked perfectly in Airbus supply chain
  72. 72. >  200  million  mobile  payments     >  $160bn     ! !
  73. 73. ! 1.7bn  mobile  users  -­‐  no  bank  account   Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers  use  mPesa   $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP  
  74. 74. 87 2m  businesses  use     SQUARE     in  US
  75. 75. Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                     TelcoBanks
  76. 76. Talking to customers on journey of life Death of traditional marketing
  77. 77. $5bn home automation market
  78. 78. Rio Tinto driverless trucks - 130 million tons of material 2.3m kms, >57 trips around the equator.
  79. 79. Digital Control
  80. 80. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  81. 81. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 ! 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  82. 82. 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawaPs  wind ! 57  closed  in  US  in  2012-­‐14 Cheaper  coal  means  more  coal  will  be  burnt  in  Asia  
  83. 83. Solar cell generation parity
  84. 84. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert Why China will dominate wind power industry “40% EU power = wind by 2050” Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
  85. 85. ! •10% capacity used 4 days a year in Australia •Average $50 à peak $10,000 per MWhr Managing  Peak  Power    
  86. 86. Germany  Power  Surplus ! • In  June  2013  electricity  prices  became  negaAve  -­‐EU150  /  MWhr
  87. 87. •Future for next-generation Super-Grids
  88. 88. Nuclear  energy  -­‐  expect  global  growth…. —Challenge to achieve carbon reductionAND cut nuclear —Wild card = dirty terror bomb or another meltdown —Mining uranium in future from sea water using today’s technology
  89. 89. Future of Smart Power Regulation Utility Co controls consumption in homes / factories
  90. 90. Smart heating or cooling Save 30-50% energy - payback 4 years
  91. 91. —5% to 2% of US / EU energy —120 million EU street lamps —75% replace in 15 years at unit cost of $750 including labour New Street Lamps save 3% national energy
  92. 92. 110 Tyres  –  4.3%        Streamlining  –  12%      1.5  metres  longer  –  5%   Hybrid  engine  –  30%      Heat  power  air  con  ec  –  5%   Shocks    power  –  4%          Slow  from  65  to  55mph    -­‐  20%   SAVE  ENERGY  ON  EVERY  TRUCK   !
  93. 93. 30% EU trucks run empty “We  waste     25  million    miles  a  year     driving  empty   trucks”     ! US  major  retailer  
  94. 94. $226bn on Mexico rail, road, ports since 2006 SUPER HUBS
  95. 95. —30 million acres lost ! —EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food 25% of 2010 US grain ! fuel
 !113 40% US corn burnt in vehicles Using 100% US corn would only drive 25% of vehicle miles
  96. 96. !114 Biofuel impact on food prices
  97. 97. do things you really believe in Life  is  Short    
  98. 98. SUSTAINABILITY and ETHICS
  99. 99. Double cotton production per acre since 1960s Impact of transgenic cotton on yields ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  100. 100. •In  the  UK,  sales  of  Fairtrade  products  in  2012  reached  £1 •78  per  cent  of  consumers  recognise  the  FAIRTRADE  Mark •One  in  every  three  bananas  sold   •44  per  cent  of  bagged  sugar  sold   •25  per  cent  of  all  roast  and  ground  retail  coffee     •Fairtrade  products  are  now  sold  in  more  than  125  countr •FAIRTRADE  logo  most  widely-­‐recognised  ethical  label  glob Fair Trade Food Sales up 18% pa !
  101. 101. Organic v Fair Trade Bananas !
  102. 102. Teams  in  top  half  of  Engagement   86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable • Gallup meta-survey > 10 million people
  103. 103. Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profits  and  AcAvists   ! Connect  with  all  the  passions  people   have  and  they  will  follow  you  to  the   ends  of  the  earth,  promote  what  you  do   with  pride,  and  may  even  be  willing  to   work  for  you  for  next  to  nothing   ! ….  and  the  four  word  phrase  is  ….  
  104. 104. ! ! Building  a  Be`er  World The  Magic  of  every  great  Business
  105. 105. • Body Level One • Body Level Two • Body Level Three • Body Level Four • Body Level Five          Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 globalchange.com   15  million  visitors   5  million  video  views

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