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Global Trends - 6 Faces of Future for Mitsui - by Patrick Dixon

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Global trends and impact on wider world of business, family and personal life. Investor trends. Keynote by Patrick Dixon for Mitsui.

Global trends and impact on wider world of business, family and personal life. Investor trends. Keynote by Patrick Dixon for Mitsui.

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    Global Trends - 6 Faces of Future for Mitsui - by Patrick Dixon Global Trends - 6 Faces of Future for Mitsui - by Patrick Dixon Presentation Transcript

    • • Body Level One • Body Level Two • Body Level Three • Body Level Four • Body Level Five          Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 Take  Hold  of  the  Future   Six  Faces  of  Global  Change  
    • ! One word will dominate ALL FUTURE !
    • Complexity and scale create risks
    • ! Strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
    • ! Leaders! with ! Agility
    • AGILE  CAREERS   ! Rota-ng  high  fliers  through   variety  of  stretching  jobs  in   different  sectors  and  regions  to   create  agile,  empowered   leaders  for  tomorrow  
    • AGILE  TRAINING   ! ! ! ! ! ! fast-­‐track  for  flexible,  agile  roles
    • WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
    • US  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
    • EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
    • Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
    • >40%  WDP  in  Asia  by  2015 —IMF  -­‐  adjusted  for  Purchasing  Power  Parity   —50%  popula-on  in  India  under  25  years  old
    • $3.4  trillion     !
    • $2.4  trillion     ! Reserves  
    • The future is about EMOTION
    •                
    • Why  need  to  look  beyond  market  research
    • Growth of Middle Class in Africa 250m people - $2 trillion by 2040 !
    • Middle Class! ! ! ! ! La-n  America  -­‐  50  million  more  people  in  last  10  years   ! Brazil:    113  million  -­‐  56%  popula-on   !
    • 300 million move to cities in China (66% of all seabourne trade in iron ore) 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
    • ! ! Science,   technology   engineering,  
    • Most  STEM  graduates  in  emerging  markets  
    • China  and  India  dominate   STEM  degrees     including  post-­‐graduate  /  PhDs
    • China  travel  bookings  >$100bn  2013   $15bn  online  -­‐  500%  growth  2008-­‐13   ! ! ! ! ! !
    • 33 High  Speed  Rail  -­‐  compe-ng  with  Air  
    • •Click to edit Master text styles 34
    • • Body Level One • Body Level Two • Body Level Three • Body Level Four • Body Level Five 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years !
    • 1  week                                                      every  4  
    • ! Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child ! 1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time !
    • Older Customers Huge New Markets
    • Chronic Conditions – Multiple Needs • 100 million Americans have chronic conditions • 80% of health spending • 88% of all prescriptions • 70% of physician visits • 66% Medicare cost = people with 5+ conditions Almost all caused by one single factor
    • 65% health spend on those over 65 Most over 65 year olds in US are women - 23m : 17m AGE
    • • $75bn endoscopy market by 2022 ($23bn 2010)
    • Tele-Monitoring Ecosystem
    • • Fluidics • Biochemistry • Semiconductors • Genetics • Mathematics • Immunology • Robotics Read genome in 2 hours for $5,000
    • 90% all global data generated in last 2 years ! Sales of canned food in Mexico store = demand for more steel tins in China Big Data
    • Performance Shift in retail health care from health treatment to life enhancement
    • Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boost
 
 R-alpha-lipoic acid Acetyl-L-carnitine
    • •Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats   •Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum Grow New Teeth
    • following coronary / stroke using adult stem cells
 
 
 Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
    • Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales? Low blood pressure and total body lift ! ! ! ! ! ! Alteon
    • •Harvard Bioscience •Bioreactor •Bone marrow stem cells •Polymer scaffold
    • Confidential HSV1  causes  cold  sores.   When  engineered  as   Seprehvir  (HSV-­‐1716),  it  is   harmless  to  healthy  @ssue. •Oncolytic viruses •Infect and kill cancer tumour cells •No damage to healthy tissue •Evidence of impact in clinical trials •Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells •Micro-dose chemo, micro-dose radiotherapy Viruses to cure cancer ?
    • 52 • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay Monkeys on diet live longer
    • Slow or no ageing is a reality • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! • No signs of getting old Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) — 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise — 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam — 405 years Some animals do not seem to “age” in normal way
    • 1  trillion  pages  a  month   !
    • "Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“ 
 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. 
 “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“ NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick. 74  million  users  a  month   33%  business  travellers     post  comments
    • People love Cities and Offices
    • TeleworkingOnly 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based 60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)
    • Diversity  in   workplace  leads  to   diversity  in   marketplace  
    • 85%  of  leaders  of  largest  US  corpora-ons   say  diversity  is  key  to  innova-on Forbes  study
    • Diversity  linked  to  higher  sales,  market   share  and  profits,  talent  recruitment
    • Women  Outperform  Men   ! • Most  sales  to  women   • 60%  US  graduates   • 40%  primary  earners   • Most  women  leave   corporaEons  early   • Solve  talent  shortage UrbanTribal
    • Reproduce  own  image   ! Tend  to  recruit  people  with  familiar  name,  voice,  accent,  personality,  culture,   appearance  
    • ! Scale - Innovation Speed ! Eat  or  be  Eaten
    • How  commodity  wealth  can  strangle  economies UN study: exchange rate rises so other business uncompetitive, military spending rises, corruption rises, instability rises
    •  11%  wage  infla-on  in  China  in  2013  and  2014  
    •  Impact  of  stronger  Chinese  currency     and  tougher  pollu-on  controls
    • Nearshoring  Boom  
    • Manufacturing  in  Mexico  will   grow  for  US  market  
    • In  many  EU  na-ons,  up  to  70%  of  retail     spending  is  in  <8  companies
    • e-­‐commerce  hits  $1.5  trillion  2014   12%  all  UK  retail
    • Mobile6m  new  mobile  users  in  Mexico  in  2014   28%  popula-on  -­‐  highest  in  La-n  America   30m  smartphones  -­‐  up  49%  last  year   60%  of  25-­‐34  year  olds  using  smartphones  
    • MOBILEMobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
    • Loca-on  Marke-ng   ! ! ! ! is  next  BIG  THING
    • ! Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil ! 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store ! Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
    • Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com  items  in   UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
    • 80 3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for
    • Gold standard:
 10am orders for 3pm Delivery
 Anywhere in same country 10am  orders  for  3pm   Delivery
    • Internet of Things
    • 1.5m components tracked perfectly in Airbus supply chain
    • >  200  million  mobile  payments     >  $160bn     ! !
    • ! 1.7bn  mobile  users  -­‐  no  bank  account   Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers  use  mPesa   $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP  
    • 87 2m  businesses  use     SQUARE     in  US
    • Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                     TelcoBanks
    • Talking to customers on journey of life Death of traditional marketing
    • $5bn home automation market
    • Rio Tinto driverless trucks - 130 million tons of material 2.3m kms, >57 trips around the equator.
    • Digital Control
    • $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
    • Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 ! 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
    • 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawaPs  wind ! 57  closed  in  US  in  2012-­‐14 Cheaper  coal  means  more  coal  will  be  burnt  in  Asia  
    • Solar cell generation parity
    • 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert Why China will dominate wind power industry “40% EU power = wind by 2050” Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
    • ! •10% capacity used 4 days a year in Australia •Average $50 à peak $10,000 per MWhr Managing  Peak  Power    
    • Germany  Power  Surplus ! • In  June  2013  electricity  prices  became  negaAve  -­‐EU150  /  MWhr
    • •Future for next-generation Super-Grids
    • Nuclear  energy  -­‐  expect  global  growth…. —Challenge to achieve carbon reductionAND cut nuclear —Wild card = dirty terror bomb or another meltdown —Mining uranium in future from sea water using today’s technology
    • Future of Smart Power Regulation Utility Co controls consumption in homes / factories
    • Smart heating or cooling Save 30-50% energy - payback 4 years
    • —5% to 2% of US / EU energy —120 million EU street lamps —75% replace in 15 years at unit cost of $750 including labour New Street Lamps save 3% national energy
    • 110 Tyres  –  4.3%        Streamlining  –  12%      1.5  metres  longer  –  5%   Hybrid  engine  –  30%      Heat  power  air  con  ec  –  5%   Shocks    power  –  4%          Slow  from  65  to  55mph    -­‐  20%   SAVE  ENERGY  ON  EVERY  TRUCK   !
    • 30% EU trucks run empty “We  waste     25  million    miles  a  year     driving  empty   trucks”     ! US  major  retailer  
    • $226bn on Mexico rail, road, ports since 2006 SUPER HUBS
    • —30 million acres lost ! —EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food 25% of 2010 US grain ! fuel
 !113 40% US corn burnt in vehicles Using 100% US corn would only drive 25% of vehicle miles
    • !114 Biofuel impact on food prices
    • do things you really believe in Life  is  Short    
    • SUSTAINABILITY and ETHICS
    • Double cotton production per acre since 1960s Impact of transgenic cotton on yields ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
    • •In  the  UK,  sales  of  Fairtrade  products  in  2012  reached  £1 •78  per  cent  of  consumers  recognise  the  FAIRTRADE  Mark •One  in  every  three  bananas  sold   •44  per  cent  of  bagged  sugar  sold   •25  per  cent  of  all  roast  and  ground  retail  coffee     •Fairtrade  products  are  now  sold  in  more  than  125  countr •FAIRTRADE  logo  most  widely-­‐recognised  ethical  label  glob Fair Trade Food Sales up 18% pa !
    • Organic v Fair Trade Bananas !
    • Teams  in  top  half  of  Engagement   86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable • Gallup meta-survey > 10 million people
    • Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profits  and  AcAvists   ! Connect  with  all  the  passions  people   have  and  they  will  follow  you  to  the   ends  of  the  earth,  promote  what  you  do   with  pride,  and  may  even  be  willing  to   work  for  you  for  next  to  nothing   ! ….  and  the  four  word  phrase  is  ….  
    • ! ! Building  a  Be`er  World The  Magic  of  every  great  Business
    • • Body Level One • Body Level Two • Body Level Three • Body Level Four • Body Level Five          Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 globalchange.com   15  million  visitors   5  million  video  views