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Future of telecoms - Conference keynote speaker

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globalchange.com - Future of Telecom and Consumers. Future of communications, marketing, management, leadership, virtual teams and virtual organisations. Virtual meetings and distance learning. Future …

globalchange.com - Future of Telecom and Consumers. Future of communications, marketing, management, leadership, virtual teams and virtual organisations. Virtual meetings and distance learning. Future bandwidth, video streaming demand, convergence and divergence of technology. Future innovations in communication. Strategy for emerging markets and developed markets. Banks will become phone companies and telecom companies will become banks. Mobile payment systems, micropayments, mobile phone credit card transactions and loans. All innovation is divergent - doing things different and better. But most companies focus on convergence on price, quality, features. Image, branding, winning customers, online marketing and building trust. Consumer changes, preferences and lifestyles. Video conferencing and virtual teams. Winning the war for talent - motivation and leadership styles.

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  • 1. Patrick DixonChairman Global Change Ltd
  • 2. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50) Future of telecoms - For AMDOCS (2009) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.
  • 3. 2009 Economic Outlook US house prices must stabilise in 2009/10 before recovery in 2010 Lending will remain frozen in many nations Expact massive increase in “money” (easing) $55 trn credit defaults next big challenge Re-valuation bank assets will take >6-12 months Expect more bank nationalisations
  • 4. What will happen to all the cash? Money out of shares Money out of propertyEvery month cash grows from NEW pension fund savings  ????$23 trillion under management Jan 2007 in 11 major nations
  • 5. Government Fear of Deflation Over-reaction Delayed impact of fiscal measures Big cycles of boom and bust likely to follow Economic instability  flexible strategy
  • 6. 30 years ago100 gig of freestorage wouldhave costEU 800m each
  • 7.  Voice , TV, data Skype, Vonage, and Yahoo Cable offering phone, tv and mobile TIVO, Wi-Max, RFID Mobile payment systems Local networks eg homes Voice recognition and cloud phones
  • 8. ConvergenceMore features, identical products and services, economy of scale Divergence Doing things different to serve consumers better - INNOVATION
  • 9. All innovation is divergent
  • 10. Add Features
  • 11. Handies got larger - again
  • 12. Blackberry phone  services
  • 13. Nokia  Ovi  Music + e-mail + navigation services
  • 14. Operators making own handsets  Vodafone
  • 15. Nintendo WiiGamesWeb browsingSocial networkingVideo streaming
  • 16. Messaging Convergence SMS E-mail Twitter Communities Voice mail Skype Landline Mobile
  • 17. RFID Innovation Impact Radio Frequency Identification Devices 1 trillion online addresses by 2016
  • 18. Intel Surfboard with laptop
  • 19. Still convergence chaos at home
  • 20. not be enough to succeed
  • 21.  Unlimited bandwidth Everywhere, online, all the time No interest in HOW bandwidth arrives Simple, personal, reliable and FAST Low cost
  • 22. WiMax 70 km radius of tower Max 70kbps slower takeup than forecasts 800k users in US end 2007 Sprint $5bn investment
  • 23. 3G slower takeoff than forecasts
  • 24. HDTV by satellite3x increase in next 4 years
  • 25. Mobile Satellite Services: 60% data  80%
  • 26. Satellite TV and Digital Radio75% of total satellite services  50% by ?
  • 27. Global bandwidthGrew 43% pa 2003-2007Two 27 year oldsresponsible for 10% of allweb traffic this year
  • 28. "Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Goodvalue, beautiful views.“ Telford UK, May20, 2015This was the most beautiful hotel“Worst hotel I have ever been in. Shouldbe closed down.“Paris May 12, 2015NEVER stay in this terrible place.
  • 29. Impact of Video on Demand
  • 30. 2 hour video = 200,000 text e-mails 1 gig / hour per person
  • 31. Olympics Opening (US views)2008 – 8m  20m 2012
  • 32. Total global bandwidth 160 tbps by 2010 250 tbps in 2016 (250m video plays) Energy: 2.7 trillion KwHs 2015 (1.3 trillion KwHs 2010)
  • 33.  75% European – Asia capacity lost – 3 weeks 35 large ships constantly repairing cables 65 Atlantic repairs alone in 2014
  • 34. Future Demand for Satellites
  • 35. Spam volume 2011 – 95% e-mails
  • 36. Maps andSocial Linkmake mostmoney out of mobile Web 2.0
  • 37. Vodafone Amex Nokia Google
  • 38. Mobile phone becomes bank cardAll retail cards  mobileTicketing  mobileRemittances  mobile
  • 39. UK Card market Transactions £700 billion pa Credit card debt £55bn
  • 40. Monthly Bill v Fees(replace cards with mobile device)Free devices / web / video 2010 2013 2015
  • 41. Ultimate slogan for 2020 For individuals For family For community For whole world
  • 42. Patrick Dixon www.globalchange.com - slides11 million visitors – 1 million video views
  • 43. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50) Future of telecoms - For AMDOCS (2009) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.