0
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd	

http://www.globalchange.com 	



Future Telecom	

how to create magic for yo...
!
One word will
dominate ALL
FUTURE
The future is about
EMOTION
!
ALL	
  	
  	
  BIG	
  	
  	
  TRENDS	
  	
  	
  ARE	
  	
  	
  RELATED	
  
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
MOST	
  	
  DEBATES	
  	
  ABOU...
300 million move to cities in China and
475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Growth of Middle Class in Africa
250m people - $2 trillion by 2040
!
• Global economy never stopped growing	

• Impact on real estate in London / UK
WGP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  (%,constant	
  price...
Vietnam	
  GDP	
  1985-­‐2011	
  
>40%	
  WDP	
  by	
  2015
— IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
$3.4	
  trillion	
  
!
$2.4	
  trillion	
  
!
Reserves	
  
!
Big strategies often
overtaken by events
!
World can change faster than
you can hold a board meeting
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
17
20
22
What	
  does	
  she	
  know?	
  
What	
  can	
  she	
  see?	
  
SoWware	
  bugs	
  
Roaming	
  ?!	
  
Data	
  charges	
  ?!
!25
!
CONVERGENCE OR
DIVERGENCE
!
All real innovation is about
doing things differently
to serve customers better
Innovation Magic is Hard to Find
!
“It may be smart,
innovative,
astonishing,
but does it really
create magic for
the customer?”
!
!
Creating magic for
clients often costs
NOTHING
!
Many	
  in	
  UK	
  no	
  longer	
  watch	
  live	
  TV
95%	
  EU	
  bandwidth	
  soon	
  video	
  
Days	
  of	
  charging	
  for	
  calls	
  /	
  SMS	
  nearly	
  over	
  
Tele-­‐presence	
  20%	
  growth	
  pa	
  	
  	
  $4.5	
  billion	
  	
  
 BUT	
  video	
  is	
  unpopular	
  at	
  work
Impact	
  on	
  bandwidth
•Global	
  demand	
  à	
  250	
  tbps	
  2016	
  
•40-­‐100	
  Jmes	
  growth	
  in	
  next	
  ...
How mobile will
transform how
people think
and feel about
YOU
Internet of Things
!
!
!
!
where is real benefit ?
1.5m components tracked perfectly
in Airbus supply chain
!
Impact of retail
and payments
revolution on
vodafone future
!
Global	
  e-­‐commerce	
  $1.5	
  trillion	
  2014	
  
12%	
  of	
  all	
  retail	
  is	
  online	
  in	
  UK
Mobile Magic
Mobile influences $29bn of retail sales in UK
50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
!59
Fusion	
  
On-­‐Off	
  line	
  	
  
social	
  media	
  
physical	
  friends
—Click to edit Master text
styles
!61
!
Online / physical
worlds become one in Brazil
!
50% research online - buy in store
40% research in store - buy onlin...
1	
  trillion	
  pages	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  a	
  month	
  
	
  	
  	
  >50%	
  revenues	...
Why Google is under
pressure and what it
means for Vodafone
"Perfection!,"  TripAdvisor Member,
March 13, 2014 This was the most
beautiful hotel. Delightful, perfect.We
will stay aga...
Over	
  4000	
  road	
  hauliers	
  in	
  EU
1.3bn	
  home	
  delivered	
  e-­‐com	
  
items	
  in	
  UK	
  a	
  year	
  (...
Gold	
  standard:

10am	
  orders	
  for	
  3pm	
  Delivery

10am orders for 3pm Delivery
67
3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months
Chosen by up to 50% customers for
deliveries - help for local stores
69
2m	
  businesses	
  use	
  	
  
SQUARE	
  	
  
in	
  US
bitcoin
70
Bitcoin	
  
Google Mobile Wallet Monetise (mobile payments for banks) Square startup $3bn valuation	

100	
  mobile	
  payment	
  plab...
CUSTOMER	
  CHOICE	
  
200	
  million	
  payments	
  globally
!
73
!
Kenya	
  -­‐	
  17m	
  customers	
  
$9bn	
  pa	
  -­‐	
  >33%	
  GDP	
  
Tanzania	
  9m	
  people	
  
35	
  nagon	
  li...
75
1.7bn	
  phone	
  
users	
  are	
  
unbanked
Savings,	
  payments,	
  loans,	
  insurance
400m	
  will	
  be	
  newly	
  banked	
  by	
  2015
76
77
33%	
  of	
  US	
  smartphone	
  users	
  will	
  use	
  
mobile	
  banking	
  in	
  2014
!
90% check balances
42% tran...
78
• In	
  UK	
  alone....	
  
• TransacCons	
  >£600	
  billion	
  pa	
  	
  
• Credit	
  card	
  debt	
  >£60bn	
  
• Av...
Free mobile devices	

calls / web / TV / games / pay	

Higher income model
2010	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
 ...
• Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes

Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes

Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes

Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes
BIG
Data
!
ha...
• Home	

• Work	

• Online	

• Offline	

• Sales	

• Entertain	

• Phone	

• Mobile	

• Chat	

• Social web	

• Mobile	

ON...
• 90%	
  MicrosoW	
  R&D	
  
CLOUD
• When	
  all	
  life	
  in	
  
cloud,	
  then	
  
device	
  and	
  
connector	
  
don’...
Aramco - 30,000 computers hit - files lost
So how does
Vodafone make
money in future?
!
Start with amazing customer
experience today - partner to
create new models t...
•Individuals	

•Family	

•Clients	

•Investors	

•Community	

Making	
  Life	
  Bejer	
  	
  
!
Create	
  magic	
  for	
  ...
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd	

http://www.globalchange.com 	



Future Telecom	

how to create magic for yo...
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken
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Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken

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Future of telecom, telcos, customer service, mobile, retail trends and related mobile payments technologies. Keynote by futurist Patrick Dixon

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Transcript of "Future of Telecom - how to create customer magic and why telco business models are broken"

  1. 1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd http://www.globalchange.com 
 Future Telecom how to create magic for your customers why existing business models are broken
  2. 2. ! One word will dominate ALL FUTURE
  3. 3. The future is about EMOTION
  4. 4. ! ALL      BIG      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED   ! ! ! ! ! ! ! MOST    DEBATES    ABOUT    TIMING  
  5. 5. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  6. 6. Growth of Middle Class in Africa 250m people - $2 trillion by 2040 !
  7. 7. • Global economy never stopped growing • Impact on real estate in London / UK WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)
  8. 8. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  9. 9. >40%  WDP  by  2015 — IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  10. 10. $3.4  trillion   !
  11. 11. $2.4  trillion   ! Reserves  
  12. 12. ! Big strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  13. 13. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles 17
  14. 14. 20
  15. 15. 22
  16. 16. What  does  she  know?   What  can  she  see?   SoWware  bugs   Roaming  ?!   Data  charges  ?!
  17. 17. !25
  18. 18. ! CONVERGENCE OR DIVERGENCE ! All real innovation is about doing things differently to serve customers better
  19. 19. Innovation Magic is Hard to Find
  20. 20. ! “It may be smart, innovative, astonishing, but does it really create magic for the customer?” !
  21. 21. ! Creating magic for clients often costs NOTHING !
  22. 22. Many  in  UK  no  longer  watch  live  TV
  23. 23. 95%  EU  bandwidth  soon  video   Days  of  charging  for  calls  /  SMS  nearly  over  
  24. 24. Tele-­‐presence  20%  growth  pa      $4.5  billion    
  25. 25.  BUT  video  is  unpopular  at  work
  26. 26. Impact  on  bandwidth •Global  demand  à  250  tbps  2016   •40-­‐100  Jmes  growth  in  next  10  years   •More  than  5%  global  power  >1  trn  KwHs   •=  1  billion  kw  heaters  for  an  hour
  27. 27. How mobile will transform how people think and feel about YOU
  28. 28. Internet of Things ! ! ! ! where is real benefit ?
  29. 29. 1.5m components tracked perfectly in Airbus supply chain
  30. 30. ! Impact of retail and payments revolution on vodafone future
  31. 31. ! Global  e-­‐commerce  $1.5  trillion  2014   12%  of  all  retail  is  online  in  UK
  32. 32. Mobile Magic Mobile influences $29bn of retail sales in UK 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
  33. 33. !59 Fusion   On-­‐Off  line     social  media   physical  friends
  34. 34. —Click to edit Master text styles
  35. 35. !61 ! Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil ! 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store ! Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
  36. 36. 1  trillion  pages                            a  month        >50%  revenues  from  mobile   !
  37. 37. Why Google is under pressure and what it means for Vodafone
  38. 38. "Perfection!,"  TripAdvisor Member, March 13, 2014 This was the most beautiful hotel. Delightful, perfect.We will stay again soon. 
 
 "Terrible! TripAdvisor Member, Sept 10, 2013 Terrible place, rats, dirty, noisy - sick with food poisoning.
  39. 39. Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com   items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
  40. 40. Gold  standard:
 10am  orders  for  3pm  Delivery
 10am orders for 3pm Delivery
  41. 41. 67 3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries - help for local stores
  42. 42. 69 2m  businesses  use     SQUARE     in  US
  43. 43. bitcoin 70 Bitcoin  
  44. 44. Google Mobile Wallet Monetise (mobile payments for banks) Square startup $3bn valuation 100  mobile  payment  plaborms   launched  in  last  5  years  but  how   many  met  real  CUSTOMER  needs  ?
  45. 45. CUSTOMER  CHOICE   200  million  payments  globally !
  46. 46. 73
  47. 47. ! Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers   $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP   Tanzania  9m  people   35  nagon  links  via  HomeSend  Hub  
  48. 48. 75 1.7bn  phone   users  are   unbanked
  49. 49. Savings,  payments,  loans,  insurance 400m  will  be  newly  banked  by  2015 76
  50. 50. 77 33%  of  US  smartphone  users  will  use   mobile  banking  in  2014 ! 90% check balances 42% transfer between accounts 26% pay bills 49% users download bank apps
  51. 51. 78 • In  UK  alone....   • TransacCons  >£600  billion  pa     • Credit  card  debt  >£60bn   • Average  card  interest  rate  16%   • 2%  commissions  worth  £12bn Payments Doorway
  52. 52. Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                     TelcoBank Magic
  53. 53. • Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes
 Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes
 Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes
 Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes BIG Data ! has only one purpose which is to create “invisible” magic for customers
  54. 54. • Home • Work • Online • Offline • Sales • Entertain • Phone • Mobile • Chat • Social web • Mobile ONE CUSTOMER MAGIC
  55. 55. • 90%  MicrosoW  R&D   CLOUD • When  all  life  in   cloud,  then   device  and   connector   don’t  majer  
  56. 56. Aramco - 30,000 computers hit - files lost
  57. 57. So how does Vodafone make money in future? ! Start with amazing customer experience today - partner to create new models tomorrow
  58. 58. •Individuals •Family •Clients •Investors •Community Making  Life  Bejer     ! Create  magic  for  your  customers
  59. 59. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd http://www.globalchange.com 
 Future Telecom how to create magic for your customers why existing business models are broken
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