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Future of Retail
How customers are changing

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Global	
  Outlook	
  -­‐	
  	
  and	
  Bulgaria	
  Retail
WGP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  (%,constant	
  prices)
•

Global economy never stopped growing
Bulgaria	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013+	
  
• Click	
  to	
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  styles
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  to	
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  styles
Vietnam	
  GDP	
  1985-­‐2011	
  
>40% WDP by 2015
Asia powering growth
— IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
$2.3	
  trillion	
  US	
  +	
  $85bn	
  per	
  month

•

Expect	
  
INFLATION	
  
$3.4	
  trillion	
  
Reserves	
  
One word will drive Future

Text
Future retail is about

EMOTION
Customer

Focus
Time	
  
Savers
22
SMART
Call-­‐Centres
Most	
  call-­‐centres
slow,	
  blind	
  and	
  
deaf
(single	
  screen	
  -­‐	
  no	
  social	
  media)

	
  
Mega	
  
Chains
Expect	
  rapid	
  growth	
  of	
  large	
  retail	
  
chains	
  in	
  Bulgaria	
  -­‐	
  new	
  outlets
Expect	
  35%	
  growth	
  in	
  consumer	
  
electronics	
  2013-­‐2017	
  in	
  Bulgaria
HUGE
MALLS
Expect	
  rapid	
  growth	
  of	
  large	
  
Shopping	
  Malls	
  in	
  Bulgaria
Ultra	
  
Premium
And	
  decline	
  of	
  smaller	
  shops	
  in	
  
tradi]onal	
  streets
Leisure
Retailing
Retail	
  Theatre	
  
Niche	
  
Trader
Brand
Busters
Brands
in	
  Brands	
  
RETAIL
Journeys
Guide	
  the	
  Experience
SELF
SERVICE
Older
Buyers	
  
Europe Dying
4 couples to
produce single
great-grand
child
1 in 3 Bulgarians over 65 by 2050
Only 50% population working a...
75%	
  of	
  all	
  US	
  and	
  UK	
  wealth	
  owned	
  by	
  
those	
  over	
  65	
  -­‐	
  mostly	
  women
Older
Money
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Rest	
  -­‐	
  Reading	
  
Online
Boom
e-­‐commerce	
  hit	
  
$1	
  trillion	
  in	
  2012	
  

e-­‐marketer

	
  
Bulgaria	
  Greece	
  Romania
Internet	
  Use
1990-­‐2012
81% of 16-24 year olds use web >2 times a week
8% of 65-74 year ...
What	
  people	
  in	
  Bulgaria	
  buy	
  online
1. Clothes/sports goods:
64%
2. Travel and holiday accommodation:
31%
3....
Price	
  

Comparison
Italy:	
  58%	
  increase	
  in	
  
aggregator	
  sales	
  of	
  
policies	
  in	
  first	
  6	
  
months	
  of	
  2013	
  ...
Mobile
Marke]ng
Tablets
Boom
•
Mobile
MORE THAN A CHANNEL
Bulgaria Smartphone sales up 24% in 2012
1 billion smartphone sales in 2013 globally
87
Loca]on	
  
Marke]ng
is	
  next
BIG	
  THING
From	
  Invasive	
  
to	
  Insight	
  
Hype	
  to
Revela]on
Mobile
“On-time, anyhow, anywhere”
Reduce customer support costs
Boost cross-sell / up-sell (works well)
Easier policy cha...
33%	
  in	
  UK	
  don’t	
  watch	
  live	
  TV
Information
Revelation
1	
  trillion
pages	
  
a	
  month
Most	
  web	
  
buyers	
  now	
  
influenced	
  by	
  
social	
  media
74	
  million	
  users	
  a	
  month
"Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value,
beautiful views.“
Madrid May 20, 2013
This...
Mobile
Payment
Wireless	
  Payment	
  
Cash	
  costs	
  EU60bn	
  pa

106
>	
  200	
  million	
  mobile	
  payments
>	
  70%	
  in	
  Africa	
  	
  
>	
  $160bn	
  
2m	
  businesses	
  use	
  
SQUARE	
  
in	
  US

108
Square	
  Daily	
  Volumes

	
  	
  soon	
  handling	
  7000	
  Starbucks	
  outlets	
  
Kenya	
  -­‐	
  17m	
  customers
$9bn	
  pa	
  -­‐	
  >33%	
  GDP
1.7bn	
  users	
  
unbanked
Payments
Doorway
• In UK alone....
• Transactions >$1trillion pa
• Credit card debt >$100bn
• Average card interest rate
1...
TelcoBanks
Free mobile devices
calls / web / TV / games / pay
Higher income model

2010	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
 ...
Fusion

On-­‐Off	
  line
SALES
Online / physical
worlds become one
Buy online - deliver to store.
Buy store - deliver at home. Go
to store, researc...
Home	
  	
  

Delivery
Over	
  4000	
  road	
  hauliers	
  in	
  EU
SPEED
to	
  Market	
  
30	
  minutes	
  to	
  pick,	
  pack	
  and	
  send

30	
  minutes	
  to	
  pick,	
  pack	
  and	
  send
Wireless
Warehousing
Gold	
  standard:
10am	
  orders	
  for	
  3pm	
  Delivery

10am orders for 3pm Delivery
Internet of Things
A6	
  –	
  85	
  door	
  components
50,000	
  product	
  combinaCons
1.5m components in supply chain
BIG
DATA
Big	
  Data
90% all global data
generated in
last 2 years
Big Data means
shift from
Marketing to
Creative Advice
• Home
• Work
• Online
• Offline
• Sales
• Entertain
• Phone
• Mobile
• Chat

ONE
CUSTOMER
Bejer	
  Retail	
  Future
•Individuals
•Family
•Community
•Wide World

Working	
  Together
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker
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Future of Retail Industry and online / mobile marketing - in Bulgaria - keynote speaker

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Future retail trends in Bulgaria and Europe - client event for BNP Paribas. By Dr Patrick Dixon. Keynote lecture covers wide range of retail trends including future of shopping malls and large retail stores, department stores, global retail chains and niche outlets, clothing, food, fast moving consumer goods, white goods, furniture and future of automotive sales. Future of e-commerce, m-commerce and mobile payment systems - impact on retail spending. Growth of home delivery and drop-off points for online sales purchases. Future of online spending. Multichannel marketing to mobile consumers. Impact of all these trends on retailing in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Turkey, Greece, Poland, Ukraine, Russia and Belarus.

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  1. 1. Future of Retail How customers are changing Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
  2. 2. Global  Outlook  -­‐    and  Bulgaria  Retail
  3. 3. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices) • Global economy never stopped growing
  4. 4. Bulgaria  GDP  1980-­‐2013+  
  5. 5. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  6. 6. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  7. 7. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  8. 8. >40% WDP by 2015 Asia powering growth — IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  9. 9. $2.3  trillion  US  +  $85bn  per  month • Expect   INFLATION  
  10. 10. $3.4  trillion   Reserves  
  11. 11. One word will drive Future Text
  12. 12. Future retail is about EMOTION
  13. 13. Customer Focus
  14. 14. Time   Savers
  15. 15. 22
  16. 16. SMART Call-­‐Centres
  17. 17. Most  call-­‐centres slow,  blind  and   deaf (single  screen  -­‐  no  social  media)  
  18. 18. Mega   Chains
  19. 19. Expect  rapid  growth  of  large  retail   chains  in  Bulgaria  -­‐  new  outlets
  20. 20. Expect  35%  growth  in  consumer   electronics  2013-­‐2017  in  Bulgaria
  21. 21. HUGE MALLS
  22. 22. Expect  rapid  growth  of  large   Shopping  Malls  in  Bulgaria
  23. 23. Ultra   Premium
  24. 24. And  decline  of  smaller  shops  in   tradi]onal  streets
  25. 25. Leisure Retailing
  26. 26. Retail  Theatre  
  27. 27. Niche   Trader
  28. 28. Brand Busters
  29. 29. Brands in  Brands  
  30. 30. RETAIL Journeys
  31. 31. Guide  the  Experience
  32. 32. SELF SERVICE
  33. 33. Older Buyers  
  34. 34. Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child 1 in 3 Bulgarians over 65 by 2050 Only 50% population working age Fastest rate of ageing in the world
  35. 35. 75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by   those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women
  36. 36. Older Money
  37. 37.              Rest  -­‐  Reading  
  38. 38. Online Boom
  39. 39. e-­‐commerce  hit   $1  trillion  in  2012   e-­‐marketer  
  40. 40. Bulgaria  Greece  Romania Internet  Use 1990-­‐2012 81% of 16-24 year olds use web >2 times a week 8% of 65-74 year olds use the web 9% population made internet purchases in 2012 Increase of 2.5% in 12 months
  41. 41. What  people  in  Bulgaria  buy  online 1. Clothes/sports goods: 64% 2. Travel and holiday accommodation: 31% 3. Books/magazines/newspapers or e-learning material: 26% 4. Household goods: 21% 5. Tickets for events: 15% 6. Food or groceries: 11% 7. Electronic equipment: 11% 8. Computer/software and upgrades (including games): 7% 9. Films/music: 7% 10. Computer hardware: 4% 11. Shares/financial services/insurance: 1%
  42. 42. Price   Comparison
  43. 43. Italy:  58%  increase  in   aggregator  sales  of   policies  in  first  6   months  of  2013  v  2012
  44. 44. Mobile Marke]ng
  45. 45. Tablets Boom •
  46. 46. Mobile MORE THAN A CHANNEL Bulgaria Smartphone sales up 24% in 2012 1 billion smartphone sales in 2013 globally
  47. 47. 87
  48. 48. Loca]on   Marke]ng is  next BIG  THING
  49. 49. From  Invasive   to  Insight  
  50. 50. Hype  to Revela]on
  51. 51. Mobile “On-time, anyhow, anywhere” Reduce customer support costs Boost cross-sell / up-sell (works well) Easier policy changes and renewals Policy alerts / progress on claims Integrated product offers Fusion with social media
  52. 52. 33%  in  UK  don’t  watch  live  TV
  53. 53. Information Revelation
  54. 54. 1  trillion pages   a  month Most  web   buyers  now   influenced  by   social  media
  55. 55. 74  million  users  a  month "Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“ Madrid May 20, 2013 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“ Paris April 11, 2013 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
  56. 56. Mobile Payment
  57. 57. Wireless  Payment   Cash  costs  EU60bn  pa 106
  58. 58. >  200  million  mobile  payments >  70%  in  Africa     >  $160bn  
  59. 59. 2m  businesses  use   SQUARE   in  US 108
  60. 60. Square  Daily  Volumes    soon  handling  7000  Starbucks  outlets  
  61. 61. Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP
  62. 62. 1.7bn  users   unbanked
  63. 63. Payments Doorway • In UK alone.... • Transactions >$1trillion pa • Credit card debt >$100bn • Average card interest rate 16% • 2% commissions worth $18bn 113
  64. 64. TelcoBanks Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                              
  65. 65. Fusion On-­‐Off  line
  66. 66. SALES Online / physical worlds become one Buy online - deliver to store. Buy store - deliver at home. Go to store, research and order online etc.
  67. 67. Home     Delivery
  68. 68. Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU
  69. 69. SPEED to  Market  
  70. 70. 30  minutes  to  pick,  pack  and  send 30  minutes  to  pick,  pack  and  send
  71. 71. Wireless Warehousing
  72. 72. Gold  standard: 10am  orders  for  3pm  Delivery 10am orders for 3pm Delivery
  73. 73. Internet of Things
  74. 74. A6  –  85  door  components 50,000  product  combinaCons
  75. 75. 1.5m components in supply chain
  76. 76. BIG DATA
  77. 77. Big  Data 90% all global data generated in last 2 years
  78. 78. Big Data means shift from Marketing to Creative Advice
  79. 79. • Home • Work • Online • Offline • Sales • Entertain • Phone • Mobile • Chat ONE CUSTOMER
  80. 80. Bejer  Retail  Future •Individuals •Family •Community •Wide World Working  Together
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