Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker

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Future of real estate industry – Futurist keynote speaker Patrick Dixon – lecture for The Crown Estate's annual Urban Portfolio Sustainability Conference. Future of global economy, and UK economic outlook. Future of megacities and urganisation, why people love cities and how cities can help protect rural areas and the environment. Future of offices and workplace, why teleworking is growing slowly and what next for virtual teams, virtual working and virtual organisations. Future of corporate HQs and large office construction. Future of retail shopping malls, shopping centres and construction of new retail outlets. Changing balance between out of town and centre of town retail development. Why real estate development will become more locally focused. Fusion of online and offline worlds - $1.5 trillion a year in 2014 on e-commerce. Impact of mobile and price comparison on future of mass-market retail. Rapid changes from patterns of home delivery to click and collect in store or from nearby retail outlet. Future of energy use in buildings and impact of solar, wind, fracking gas and other energy trends on construction industry and commercial developments. How the construction industry can save energy and resources by planning for longer term life of commercial buildings. It is a scandal that most commercial real estate, offices and factories, are designed to be demolished in no more than 30 years. Any construction company building homes designed to fall apart in 30 years would be considered to be socially evil, yet this is normal practice in, for example, high rise office development. Sustainable real estate industry requires a much longer view.

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Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker

  1. 1. Sustainable  Real  Estate Dr  Patrick  Dixon    Chairman  Global  Change  Ltd
  2. 2. Sustainable real estate means that we have to look far into the future
  3. 3. Wild  Cards:  Risk  Management
  4. 4. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  5. 5. Big strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  6. 6. 12
  7. 7. £  375bn • $2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month
  8. 8. AGILITY means  more  than   one  strategy  or  future   for  every  building
  9. 9. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices) • • Global economy never stopped growing Impact on real estate in London / UK
  10. 10. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  11. 11. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  12. 12. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  13. 13. >40%  WDP  by  2015 — IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  14. 14. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
  15. 15. Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
  16. 16. 1  week                              every  4
  17. 17. Future of real estate is about EMOTION
  18. 18. 29
  19. 19. 30
  20. 20.                
  21. 21. Future  of  Offices   Breathing   same  air
  22. 22. People love Cities
  23. 23. Cities keep crowds together so cities help protect countryside 34
  24. 24. 35
  25. 25. Commute for Community 36
  26. 26. Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based 60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)
  27. 27. Tele-­‐presence  20%  growth  pa      $4.5  billion  
  28. 28.  But  video  is  unpopular  at  work
  29. 29. Future  of  Retail   Shopping  Malls   Leisure  +  Experience
  30. 30. Local   Convenience   Boom  
  31. 31. 70%  customers   live  only  600   metres  away
  32. 32. Fusion On-­‐Off  line
  33. 33. Global  e-­‐commerce  $1.5  trillion  2014 12%  of  all  retail  is  online  in  UK
  34. 34. — Click to edit Master text styles
  35. 35. — Click to edit Master text styles
  36. 36. Mobile Retail Mobile influences $29bn of retail sales in UK 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
  37. 37. Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com   items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
  38. 38. Gold  standard: 10am  orders  for  3pm  Delivery 10am orders for 3pm Delivery
  39. 39. 3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries - help for local stores 54
  40. 40. Energy  impact   on  real  estate
  41. 41. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  42. 42. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  43. 43. • Click  to  edit  Master   text  styles
  44. 44. Boom Bust
  45. 45. 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawaPs  wind   Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China 57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  
  46. 46. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day QUEBEC  from  ARIZONA 7,000 times total power use MOSCOW  from  SAHARA
  47. 47. Solar  cell  generaon  cost  parity  
  48. 48. AVracWve  Solar  cell  cladding   on  every  building  
  49. 49. “40%  E terawatts of sunlight /day 120,000U  power  =  wind  by  2050” Surplus  wtimes total global  to  methane  ?   7,000 ind  to  hydrogen  -­‐ power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
  50. 50. Australia  Power  Shortage • 10%  capacity  used  4  days  a  year • Average  $50  to  peak  at  $10,000  per  MWhr  
  51. 51. Germany  Power  Surplus • In  June  2013 • Electricity  prices  became  negaVve   • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!
  52. 52. Managing  peak  demand —AutomaVc  meter  readings —Variable  pricing —Time  and  weather  sensiVve  discounVng
  53. 53. Power  Storage   Enough salt caverns planned to power Germany for a week
  54. 54. Electric  Cars —>10%  smallest  cars  electric   cars  within  10  years   —Increase  night  Vme  power   consumpVon  by  20% —Donate  power  at  peak  Vmes   to  balance  grid
  55. 55. • Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids • 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project • China planning to power Moscow
  56. 56. Low  energy  streetlights —Cost  replacing  all  120  m  EU  streetlights   £300bn  saving  £50bn  a  year —Market  £15bn  pa  over  15  years —4  year  payback
  57. 57. Smart  heaJng  or  cooling   Save  30-­‐50%  energy  -­‐  payback  4  years    
  58. 58. Heat Pumps save up to 50% • 70% new buildings in Sweden • 45% new buildings in New Zealand • Payback 15 years but boosts electricity demand
  59. 59.    Eat  or  be  Eaten  ! Living  unWl  next  merger  –  or  de-­‐merger
  60. 60. E-­‐Crete —Concrete  industry  =  5-­‐7%  global  CO2 —Geoplymers  such  as  E-­‐crete  (power  staVon  ash) — Jannie  Van  Deventer,  University  of  Melbourne,  Zeobond   —50%  world’s  concrete  producVon  saves  1bn  tons   C02  /10  years  in  real  estate  construcVon
  61. 61. Make  Buildings  Last 30%  +  of  lifeVme  energy  use  =  build  and  demolish
  62. 62. Building a Better World Sustainable Real Estate Industry is Vital to Future Build in quality Flexible design Better experience Enhance community Less energy 50 year timescale
  63. 63. Sustainable  Real  Estate Keynote  Slides 5  million  video  views GlobalChange.com Dr  Patrick  Dixon    Chairman  Global  Change  Ltd

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