Sustainable	
  Real	
  Estate

Dr	
  Patrick	
  Dixon	
  	
  Chairman	
  Global	
  Change	
  Ltd
Sustainable real
estate means that
we have to look
far into the future
Wild	
  Cards:	
  Risk	
  Management
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
Big strategies often
overtaken by events
World can change faster than
you can hold a board meeting
12
£	
  375bn
•

$2.3	
  trillion	
  US	
  +	
  $65bn	
  per	
  month
AGILITY
means	
  more	
  than	
  
one	
  strategy	
  or	
  future	
  
for	
  every	
  building
WGP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  (%,constant	
  prices)
•
•

Global economy never stopped growing
Impact on real estate in London / U...
US	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
EU	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
Vietnam	
  GDP	
  1985-­‐2011	
  
>40%	
  WDP	
  by	
  2015
— IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
300 million move to cities in China and
475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
Europe Dying
4 couples to
produce single
great-grand
child
1	
  week	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  every	
  4
Future of real estate is about

EMOTION
29
30
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
Future	
  of	
  Offices	
  

Breathing	
  
same	
  air
People love Cities
Cities keep crowds together
so cities help protect countryside

34
35
Commute for Community

36
Teleworking
Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based
60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from
home re...
Tele-­‐presence	
  20%	
  growth	
  pa	
  	
  	
  $4.5	
  billion	
  
 But	
  video	
  is	
  unpopular	
  at	
  work
Future	
  of	
  Retail	
  
Shopping	
  Malls	
  
Leisure	
  +	
  Experience
Local	
  
Convenience	
  

Boom	
  
70%	
  customers	
  
live	
  only	
  600	
  
metres	
  away
Fusion

On-­‐Off	
  line
Global	
  e-­‐commerce	
  $1.5	
  trillion	
  2014
12%	
  of	
  all	
  retail	
  is	
  online	
  in	
  UK
— Click to edit Master text

styles
— Click to edit Master text

styles
Mobile Retail
Mobile influences $29bn of retail sales in UK
50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
Over	
  4000	
  road	
  hauliers	
  in	
  EU

1.3bn	
  home	
  delivered	
  e-­‐com	
  
items	
  in	
  UK	
  a	
  year	
  ...
Gold	
  standard:
10am	
  orders	
  for	
  3pm	
  Delivery

10am orders for 3pm Delivery
3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months
Chosen by up to 50% customers for
deliveries - help for local stores

54
Energy	
  impact	
  
on	
  real	
  estate
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom
driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33%
US supplies
3.3m US jobs
$468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020

200 years global supply
Up from 6...
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  
text	
  styles
Boom

Bust
5	
  coal	
  plants	
  replace	
  with	
  gas	
  =	
  9000	
  megawaPs	
  wind	
  
Coal	
  prices	
  fall	
  =	
  more	
  ...
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
QUEBEC	
  from	
  ARIZONA
7,000 times total power use

MOSCOW	
  from	
  SAHARA
Solar	
  cell	
  generaon	
  cost	
  parity	
  
AVracWve	
  Solar	
  cell	
  cladding	
  
on	
  every	
  building	
  
“40%	
  E terawatts of sunlight /day
120,000U	
  power	
  =	
  wind	
  by	
  2050”
Surplus	
  wtimes total global	
  to	
 ...
Australia	
  Power	
  Shortage

• 10%	
  capacity	
  used	
  4	
  days	
  a	
  year
• Average	
  $50	
  to	
  peak	
  at	
...
Germany	
  Power	
  Surplus

• In	
  June	
  2013
• Electricity	
  prices	
  became	
  negaVve	
  
• -­‐	
  minus	
  EU150...
Managing	
  peak	
  demand
—AutomaVc	
  meter	
  readings
—Variable	
  pricing
—Time	
  and	
  weather	
  sensiVve	
  d...
Power	
  Storage	
  

Enough salt caverns
planned to power
Germany for a week
Electric	
  Cars
—>10%	
  smallest	
  cars	
  electric	
  

cars	
  within	
  10	
  years	
  
—Increase	
  night	
  Vme	...
•

Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids

• 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project

•

China planning to power Moscow
Low	
  energy	
  streetlights

—Cost	
  replacing	
  all	
  120	
  m	
  EU	
  streetlights	
  

£300bn	
  saving	
  £50bn...
Smart	
  heaJng	
  or	
  cooling	
  
Save	
  30-­‐50%	
  energy	
  -­‐	
  payback	
  4	
  years	
  	
  
Heat Pumps save up to 50%

• 70% new buildings in Sweden
• 45% new buildings in New Zealand
• Payback 15 years but boosts ...
 	
  Eat	
  or	
  be	
  Eaten	
  !
Living	
  unWl	
  next	
  merger	
  –	
  or	
  de-­‐merger
E-­‐Crete
—Concrete	
  industry	
  =	
  5-­‐7%	
  global	
  CO2
—Geoplymers	
  such	
  as	
  E-­‐crete	
  (power	
  staV...
Make	
  Buildings	
  Last
30%	
  +	
  of	
  lifeVme	
  energy	
  use	
  =	
  build	
  and	
  demolish
Building a Better World
Sustainable Real Estate Industry is Vital to Future

Build in quality
Flexible design
Better exper...
Sustainable	
  Real	
  Estate
Keynote	
  Slides
5	
  million	
  video	
  views
GlobalChange.com
Dr	
  Patrick	
  Dixon	
  ...
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker
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Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker

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Future of real estate industry – Futurist keynote speaker Patrick Dixon – lecture for The Crown Estate's annual Urban Portfolio Sustainability Conference. Future of global economy, and UK economic outlook. Future of megacities and urganisation, why people love cities and how cities can help protect rural areas and the environment. Future of offices and workplace, why teleworking is growing slowly and what next for virtual teams, virtual working and virtual organisations. Future of corporate HQs and large office construction. Future of retail shopping malls, shopping centres and construction of new retail outlets. Changing balance between out of town and centre of town retail development. Why real estate development will become more locally focused. Fusion of online and offline worlds - $1.5 trillion a year in 2014 on e-commerce. Impact of mobile and price comparison on future of mass-market retail. Rapid changes from patterns of home delivery to click and collect in store or from nearby retail outlet. Future of energy use in buildings and impact of solar, wind, fracking gas and other energy trends on construction industry and commercial developments. How the construction industry can save energy and resources by planning for longer term life of commercial buildings. It is a scandal that most commercial real estate, offices and factories, are designed to be demolished in no more than 30 years. Any construction company building homes designed to fall apart in 30 years would be considered to be socially evil, yet this is normal practice in, for example, high rise office development. Sustainable real estate industry requires a much longer view.

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Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker

  1. 1. Sustainable  Real  Estate Dr  Patrick  Dixon    Chairman  Global  Change  Ltd
  2. 2. Sustainable real estate means that we have to look far into the future
  3. 3. Wild  Cards:  Risk  Management
  4. 4. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  5. 5. Big strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  6. 6. 12
  7. 7. £  375bn • $2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month
  8. 8. AGILITY means  more  than   one  strategy  or  future   for  every  building
  9. 9. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices) • • Global economy never stopped growing Impact on real estate in London / UK
  10. 10. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  11. 11. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  12. 12. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  13. 13. >40%  WDP  by  2015 — IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  14. 14. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
  15. 15. Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
  16. 16. 1  week                              every  4
  17. 17. Future of real estate is about EMOTION
  18. 18. 29
  19. 19. 30
  20. 20.                
  21. 21. Future  of  Offices   Breathing   same  air
  22. 22. People love Cities
  23. 23. Cities keep crowds together so cities help protect countryside 34
  24. 24. 35
  25. 25. Commute for Community 36
  26. 26. Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based 60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)
  27. 27. Tele-­‐presence  20%  growth  pa      $4.5  billion  
  28. 28.  But  video  is  unpopular  at  work
  29. 29. Future  of  Retail   Shopping  Malls   Leisure  +  Experience
  30. 30. Local   Convenience   Boom  
  31. 31. 70%  customers   live  only  600   metres  away
  32. 32. Fusion On-­‐Off  line
  33. 33. Global  e-­‐commerce  $1.5  trillion  2014 12%  of  all  retail  is  online  in  UK
  34. 34. — Click to edit Master text styles
  35. 35. — Click to edit Master text styles
  36. 36. Mobile Retail Mobile influences $29bn of retail sales in UK 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
  37. 37. Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com   items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
  38. 38. Gold  standard: 10am  orders  for  3pm  Delivery 10am orders for 3pm Delivery
  39. 39. 3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries - help for local stores 54
  40. 40. Energy  impact   on  real  estate
  41. 41. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  42. 42. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  43. 43. • Click  to  edit  Master   text  styles
  44. 44. Boom Bust
  45. 45. 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawaPs  wind   Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China 57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  
  46. 46. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day QUEBEC  from  ARIZONA 7,000 times total power use MOSCOW  from  SAHARA
  47. 47. Solar  cell  generaon  cost  parity  
  48. 48. AVracWve  Solar  cell  cladding   on  every  building  
  49. 49. “40%  E terawatts of sunlight /day 120,000U  power  =  wind  by  2050” Surplus  wtimes total global  to  methane  ?   7,000 ind  to  hydrogen  -­‐ power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
  50. 50. Australia  Power  Shortage • 10%  capacity  used  4  days  a  year • Average  $50  to  peak  at  $10,000  per  MWhr  
  51. 51. Germany  Power  Surplus • In  June  2013 • Electricity  prices  became  negaVve   • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!
  52. 52. Managing  peak  demand —AutomaVc  meter  readings —Variable  pricing —Time  and  weather  sensiVve  discounVng
  53. 53. Power  Storage   Enough salt caverns planned to power Germany for a week
  54. 54. Electric  Cars —>10%  smallest  cars  electric   cars  within  10  years   —Increase  night  Vme  power   consumpVon  by  20% —Donate  power  at  peak  Vmes   to  balance  grid
  55. 55. • Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids • 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project • China planning to power Moscow
  56. 56. Low  energy  streetlights —Cost  replacing  all  120  m  EU  streetlights   £300bn  saving  £50bn  a  year —Market  £15bn  pa  over  15  years —4  year  payback
  57. 57. Smart  heaJng  or  cooling   Save  30-­‐50%  energy  -­‐  payback  4  years    
  58. 58. Heat Pumps save up to 50% • 70% new buildings in Sweden • 45% new buildings in New Zealand • Payback 15 years but boosts electricity demand
  59. 59.    Eat  or  be  Eaten  ! Living  unWl  next  merger  –  or  de-­‐merger
  60. 60. E-­‐Crete —Concrete  industry  =  5-­‐7%  global  CO2 —Geoplymers  such  as  E-­‐crete  (power  staVon  ash) — Jannie  Van  Deventer,  University  of  Melbourne,  Zeobond   —50%  world’s  concrete  producVon  saves  1bn  tons   C02  /10  years  in  real  estate  construcVon
  61. 61. Make  Buildings  Last 30%  +  of  lifeVme  energy  use  =  build  and  demolish
  62. 62. Building a Better World Sustainable Real Estate Industry is Vital to Future Build in quality Flexible design Better experience Enhance community Less energy 50 year timescale
  63. 63. Sustainable  Real  Estate Keynote  Slides 5  million  video  views GlobalChange.com Dr  Patrick  Dixon    Chairman  Global  Change  Ltd
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