0
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd	

!


The	
  Future	
  of	
  Money
!
ALL	
  	
  	
  TRENDS	
  	
  	
  ARE	
  	
  	
  RELATED	
  
!
!
!
MOST	
  	
  DEBATES	
  	
  ABOUT	
  	
  TIMING	
  
!
!
FUTURE of NOTES and COINS
!
Value	
  of	
  Euro	
  notes	
  	
  
!
!
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  in	
  circula...
!5
$ Trillions in circulation 2006-2012
Cash handling costs continue to be significant
!
!
Young people
use cash more
UK Cash
52% all
payments
in 2013
£21.4bn
- £19.9bn
from
2009-13
!
How far into the future will it be
before cash use falls significantly ?
!
!
One word will
dominate ALL
FUTURE
The future is about
EMOTION
13
14
!
Why market research is an
unreliable guide to the future
!
	
  FUTURE	
  of	
  RETAIL
!
In	
  many	
  EU	
  na@ons,	
  up	
  to	
  70%	
  of	
  retail	
  	
  spending	
  is	
  in	
  <8	
  companies
—Soriana, Cencosud, Casino (CBD, Exito), Carrefour and Wal-Mart
!
Online / physical
worlds become one in Brazil
!
50% research online - buy in store
40% research in store - buy online
89...
!
Instant Price
Comparison
!
FUTURE
eCOMMERCE
!
Global	
  e-­‐commerce	
  $1.5	
  trillion	
  2014	
  
12%	
  of	
  all	
  retail	
  is	
  online	
  ...
!
Mobile
Magic
!
!
!
Mobile influences $29bn
of retail sales in UK
50% of all UK online
sales are using mobile
Loca@on	
  Marke@ng	
  
!
!
!
!
is	
  next	
  BIG	
  THING
Talking	
  to	
  customers	
  	
  
on	
  journey	
  of	
  life	
  
Death	
  of	
  tradi:onal	
  	
  
marke:ng
1.3bn	
  home	
  
delivered	
  e-­‐
com	
  items	
  in	
  
UK	
  a	
  year	
  
(+12%	
  pa)
10am	
  orders	
  for	
  3pm	
  Delivery
34
!
MOBILE
PAYMENTS
!
!
$325bn	
  globally	
  in	
  2015
!
!
• Kenya	
  -­‐	
  17m	
  customers	
  
• $9bn	
  pa	
  -­‐	
  >35%	
  GDP	
  
• Cashless	
  bus	
  ?ckets	
  etc	
  etc	...
!
475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 — Huge growth in remittances
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
39
1.7bn	
  mobile	
  phone	
  users	
  have	
  no	
  bank	
  account	
  
400m	
  will	
  be	
  newly	
  banked	
  by	
  2...
Google Mobile Wallet Monetise (mobile payments for banks) Square startup 	

!
100	
  mobile	
  payment	
  plaCorms	
  
lau...
41
43
•In	
  UK	
  alone....	
  
•Transac:ons	
  >£600	
  billion	
  pa	
  	
  
•Credit	
  card	
  debt	
  >£60bn	
  
•Averag...
28m	
  already	
  use	
  online	
  banking	
  in	
  UK	
  	
  
Expect	
  1	
  billion	
  Paym	
  payments	
  by	
  end	
  ...
Free mobile devices	

calls / web / TV / games / pay	

Higher income model
2010	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
 ...
BIG	
  DATA	
  
BANKS	
  
!
!
•Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes

Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes

Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes

Terabytes =...
!
How far into the future will it be
before cash use falls significantly ?
!
Cash will continue to be used very widely over the
next decade, with huge emotional pull, but expect
mobile payments to ...
Slides andVideos: globalchange.com	

!
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd	

The	
  Future	
  of	
  Money
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon
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Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon

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Cash will continue to grow in use despite boom in e-commerce, cash handling costs, and mobile payments. Future of Banking and Financial services. Keynote by Futurist Patrick Dixon for Glory Global.

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Transcript of "Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon"

  1. 1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd ! 
 The  Future  of  Money
  2. 2. ! ALL      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED   ! ! ! MOST    DEBATES    ABOUT    TIMING   !
  3. 3. ! FUTURE of NOTES and COINS !
  4. 4. Value  of  Euro  notes     ! !                                  in  circula@on  2002-­‐13  CASH BOOM
  5. 5. !5 $ Trillions in circulation 2006-2012 Cash handling costs continue to be significant ! ! Young people use cash more
  6. 6. UK Cash 52% all payments in 2013 £21.4bn - £19.9bn from 2009-13
  7. 7. ! How far into the future will it be before cash use falls significantly ? !
  8. 8. ! One word will dominate ALL FUTURE
  9. 9. The future is about EMOTION
  10. 10. 13
  11. 11. 14
  12. 12. ! Why market research is an unreliable guide to the future
  13. 13. !  FUTURE  of  RETAIL !
  14. 14. In  many  EU  na@ons,  up  to  70%  of  retail    spending  is  in  <8  companies
  15. 15. —Soriana, Cencosud, Casino (CBD, Exito), Carrefour and Wal-Mart
  16. 16. ! Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil ! 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store ! Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
  17. 17. ! Instant Price Comparison
  18. 18. ! FUTURE eCOMMERCE ! Global  e-­‐commerce  $1.5  trillion  2014   12%  of  all  retail  is  online  in  UK
  19. 19. ! Mobile Magic ! ! ! Mobile influences $29bn of retail sales in UK 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
  20. 20. Loca@on  Marke@ng   ! ! ! ! is  next  BIG  THING
  21. 21. Talking  to  customers     on  journey  of  life   Death  of  tradi:onal     marke:ng
  22. 22. 1.3bn  home   delivered  e-­‐ com  items  in   UK  a  year   (+12%  pa)
  23. 23. 10am  orders  for  3pm  Delivery
  24. 24. 34
  25. 25. ! MOBILE PAYMENTS ! ! $325bn  globally  in  2015 !
  26. 26. ! • Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers   • $9bn  pa  -­‐  >35%  GDP   • Cashless  bus  ?ckets  etc  etc  
  27. 27. ! 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 — Huge growth in remittances ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  28. 28. 39 1.7bn  mobile  phone  users  have  no  bank  account   400m  will  be  newly  banked  by  2017  -­‐  by  MOBILE  only
  29. 29. Google Mobile Wallet Monetise (mobile payments for banks) Square startup ! 100  mobile  payment  plaCorms   launched  in  last  5  years  but  how   many  met  real  CUSTOMER  needs  ?
  30. 30. 41
  31. 31. 43 •In  UK  alone....   •Transac:ons  >£600  billion  pa     •Credit  card  debt  >£60bn   •Average  card  interest  rate  16%   •2%  commissions  worth  £12bn Payments Doorway
  32. 32. 28m  already  use  online  banking  in  UK     Expect  1  billion  Paym  payments  by  end  2018  
  33. 33. Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                     Telco             Banks Bank   Telcos
  34. 34. BIG  DATA   BANKS   ! ! •Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes
 Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes
 Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes
 Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes NO  DATA   BITCOINS   ! !
  35. 35. ! How far into the future will it be before cash use falls significantly ?
  36. 36. ! Cash will continue to be used very widely over the next decade, with huge emotional pull, but expect mobile payments to grow dramatically from 2018
  37. 37. Slides andVideos: globalchange.com ! Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd The  Future  of  Money
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