Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon

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Cash will continue to grow in use despite boom in e-commerce, cash handling costs, and mobile payments. Future of Banking and Financial services. Keynote by Futurist Patrick Dixon for Glory Global.

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Future of Money - cash in an e-commerce, mobile world - keynote speaker Patrick Dixon

  1. 1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd ! 
 The  Future  of  Money
  2. 2. ! ALL      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED   ! ! ! MOST    DEBATES    ABOUT    TIMING   !
  3. 3. ! FUTURE of NOTES and COINS !
  4. 4. Value  of  Euro  notes     ! !                                  in  circula@on  2002-­‐13  CASH BOOM
  5. 5. !5 $ Trillions in circulation 2006-2012 Cash handling costs continue to be significant ! ! Young people use cash more
  6. 6. UK Cash 52% all payments in 2013 £21.4bn - £19.9bn from 2009-13
  7. 7. ! How far into the future will it be before cash use falls significantly ? !
  8. 8. ! One word will dominate ALL FUTURE
  9. 9. The future is about EMOTION
  10. 10. 13
  11. 11. 14
  12. 12. ! Why market research is an unreliable guide to the future
  13. 13. !  FUTURE  of  RETAIL !
  14. 14. In  many  EU  na@ons,  up  to  70%  of  retail    spending  is  in  <8  companies
  15. 15. —Soriana, Cencosud, Casino (CBD, Exito), Carrefour and Wal-Mart
  16. 16. ! Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil ! 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store ! Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
  17. 17. ! Instant Price Comparison
  18. 18. ! FUTURE eCOMMERCE ! Global  e-­‐commerce  $1.5  trillion  2014   12%  of  all  retail  is  online  in  UK
  19. 19. ! Mobile Magic ! ! ! Mobile influences $29bn of retail sales in UK 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
  20. 20. Loca@on  Marke@ng   ! ! ! ! is  next  BIG  THING
  21. 21. Talking  to  customers     on  journey  of  life   Death  of  tradi:onal     marke:ng
  22. 22. 1.3bn  home   delivered  e-­‐ com  items  in   UK  a  year   (+12%  pa)
  23. 23. 10am  orders  for  3pm  Delivery
  24. 24. 34
  25. 25. ! MOBILE PAYMENTS ! ! $325bn  globally  in  2015 !
  26. 26. ! • Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers   • $9bn  pa  -­‐  >35%  GDP   • Cashless  bus  ?ckets  etc  etc  
  27. 27. ! 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 — Huge growth in remittances ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  28. 28. 39 1.7bn  mobile  phone  users  have  no  bank  account   400m  will  be  newly  banked  by  2017  -­‐  by  MOBILE  only
  29. 29. Google Mobile Wallet Monetise (mobile payments for banks) Square startup ! 100  mobile  payment  plaCorms   launched  in  last  5  years  but  how   many  met  real  CUSTOMER  needs  ?
  30. 30. 41
  31. 31. 43 •In  UK  alone....   •Transac:ons  >£600  billion  pa     •Credit  card  debt  >£60bn   •Average  card  interest  rate  16%   •2%  commissions  worth  £12bn Payments Doorway
  32. 32. 28m  already  use  online  banking  in  UK     Expect  1  billion  Paym  payments  by  end  2018  
  33. 33. Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                     Telco             Banks Bank   Telcos
  34. 34. BIG  DATA   BANKS   ! ! •Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes
 Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes
 Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes
 Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes NO  DATA   BITCOINS   ! !
  35. 35. ! How far into the future will it be before cash use falls significantly ?
  36. 36. ! Cash will continue to be used very widely over the next decade, with huge emotional pull, but expect mobile payments to grow dramatically from 2018
  37. 37. Slides andVideos: globalchange.com ! Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd The  Future  of  Money

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