Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Insurance Trends
Future World, Future Opportunities
Fellow, Centre for Managem...
do things you really believe in
doing the right thing
Life	
  is	
  Short	
  	
  
Why	
  I	
  believe	
  
in	
  insurance	
  	
  
Poor	
  image	
  with	
  customers	
  and	
  graduates
—Marke&ng:	
  We	
  are	
  here	
  to	
  protect	
  you	
  and	
  ...
6	
  words	
  spell	
  	
  	
  F	
  U	
  T	
  U	
  R	
  E	
  
F ast
U rban
T ribal
U niversal
R adical
E thical
ALL	
  	
  	
  BIG	
  	
  	
  RISKS	
  	
  	
  ARE	
  	
  	
  RELATED
ReputaGon	
  -­‐	
  Events	
  -­‐	
  Focus	
  -­‐	
 ...
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
AGILE
leaders have more
than one strategy
and learn rapidly
from each other
WGP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  (%,constant	
  prices)
Diversity	
  to	
  seize
global	
  markets
EU	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
Vietnam	
  GDP	
  1985-­‐2011	
  
>40% WDP by 2015
— IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  styles
RISK
benchmarking over
same investment
cliff as everyone else
•
£	
  375bn
$2.3	
  trillion	
  US	
  +	
  $85bn	
  per	
  month
$3.4	
  trillion	
  
Reserves	
  
The future is about
EMOTION
80%	
  lost	
  in	
  seconds	
  
aggregators	
  win
with	
  only	
  one	
  form
Most	
  call-­‐centres
slow,	
  blind	
  and	
  
deaf
(single	
  screen	
  -­‐	
  no	
  social	
  media)
	
  
300 million move to cities in China and
475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
Personal	
  Financial	
  Services	
  in	
  Asia
$300bn	
  growth	
  expected:	
  2011-­‐	
  2020	
  
China / Brazil
32% retail
insurance
growth pa
Europe Dying
4 couples to
produce single
great-grand
child
Hyper-competive + regulation
75%	
  of	
  all	
  US	
  and	
  UK	
  wealth	
  owned	
  by	
  
those	
  over	
  65	
  -­‐	
  mostly	
  women
Falling	
  Family	
  Size	
  link	
  means	
  
Insurance
• Average	
  family	
  size	
  in	
  developing	
  naCons	
  fell...
Can we stop ageing ?
• Adenovirus
• Infected mouse hair cells
• Permanent colour change
Permanent Hair Colour
Treatment which restores and
maintains the youthful elasticity of
hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled
skin. Global sale...
• Pigs teeth grown
inside rats
• Mice grow new
teeth from nerve
cells / gum tissue
Grow New Teeth
Repair of heart or brain
damage following
coronary / stroke
using adult stem cells
Repair Heart / Brain
• Harvard Bioscience
• Bioreactor
• Bone marrow stem cells
• Polymer scaffold
Print New Skin (Lexmar)
Build Nanotech Robots
• Adenovirus contains Math1 gene
• Turns young ear cells into hair cells
• Inject virus particles into inner ear
• New hai...
Confidential
HSV1	
  causes	
  cold	
  sores.	
  When	
  
engineered	
  as	
  Seprehvir	
  
(HSV-­‐1716),	
  it	
  is	
  h...
Monkeys on diet live longer
• After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories
• Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, ...
Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boost
R-alpha-lipoic acid
Acetyl-L-carnitine
Slow	
  or	
  no	
  ageing	
  is	
  a	
  reality	
  in	
  animals
Japan	
  women	
  gain	
  15	
  minutes	
  of	
  life	
 ...
lPeople	
  like	
  to	
  belong
lSense	
  of	
  idenCty
lCommunity	
  
lFamily
lInsurance	
  oTen	
  personal	
  	
  ...
700,000	
  agents:	
  relaGonship
Reasons
people
choose
non-life
insurers
—Click to edit Master text styles
—Click to edit Master text styles
Huge Opportunity: customer experience
1	
  trillion
pages	
  a	
  
month
"Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value,
beautiful views.“
Madrid May 20, 2013
This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean,...
SCALE	
  +	
  FOCUS
Survival	
  issues:	
  	
  country	
  
region	
  /	
  specialty	
  /	
  
channel	
  /	
  technology	
 ...
e-­‐commerce	
  hit	
  
$1	
  trillion	
  in	
  2012	
  e-­‐marketer	
  
Italy:	
  58%	
  increase	
  in	
  
aggregator	
  sales	
  of	
  
policies	
  in	
  first	
  6	
  
months	
  of	
  2013	
  ...
56%	
  all	
  private	
  motor	
  insurance	
  sales
Growth	
  1-­‐2%	
  pa	
  -­‐	
  reaching	
  saturaGon
30%	
  of	
  c...
Weakness of all
Aggregators
33%	
  in	
  UK	
  don’t	
  watch	
  live	
  TV
>	
  200	
  million	
  mobile	
  payments	
  	
  
>	
  $160bn	
  
Kenya	
  -­‐	
  17m	
  customers
$9bn	
  pa	
  -­‐	
  >33%	
  GDP
1.7bn	
  users	
  
unbanked
Mobile“On-time, anyhow, anywhere”
Reduce customer support costs
Boost cross-sell / up-sell (works well)
Easier policy chan...
1500% growth car insurance black boxes
Telematics
Scale
90% all global data
generated in
last 2 years
Big	
  Data
Sales,	
  underwriGng,	
  fraud	
  
Big Data means
shift from
Marketing to
Advice
• Home
• Work
• Online
• Offline
• Sales
• Entertain
• Phone
• Mobile
• Chat
• Social web
ONE
CUSTOMER
• 90%	
  Microsoh	
  R&D
CLOUD
5.5	
  billion	
  cyberajacks
42%	
  increase	
  /	
  year
>160Gbps	
  in	
  denial	
  of	
  service
1000	
  major	
  ajac...
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom
driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33%
US supplies
3.3m US jobs
$468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
200 years global supply
Up from 60...
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
7,000 times total global power use
Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
“40%	
  EU	
  power	...
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
7,000 times total power use
QUEBEC from ARIZONA
MOSCOW from SAHARA
Solar	
  cell	
  generaCon	
  for	
  same	
  price	
  
Only 5% EU power crosses borders
Enough salt caverns to power germany for a wee
96
Only sell what you believe in
and would sell to your family
and friends
The	
  only	
  corporate	
  value	
  worth	
  havi...
Truth	
  about	
  Retail	
  Funds
—Next miss-selling scandal? Expect regulation++
—65-75% of actively managed funds fail...
“Trust	
  and	
  Transparency...We	
  aim	
  to	
  delight	
  
our	
  customers	
  with	
  our	
  service	
  to	
  them	
 ...
•Individuals
•Families
•Teams
•Shareholders
•Communi&es
•Wide	
  World
CreaGng	
  a	
  Bejer	
  World
Bejer	
  value,	
  c...
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com
5 MILLION VIDEO VIEWS
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futu...
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Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon

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Keynote for Prudential / London Business School on future of insurance industry, financial services, future of life insurance, future of pension, fund management, compliance, regulation and related insurance industry trends. Future of insurance customers, mobile multichannel marketing, future of direct selling by insurance agents in Asia, future of insurance in emerging markets such as China, India, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon.

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Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management - insurance keynote by Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon

  1. 1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Insurance Trends Future World, Future Opportunities Fellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School Text
  2. 2. do things you really believe in doing the right thing Life  is  Short    
  3. 3. Why  I  believe   in  insurance    
  4. 4. Poor  image  with  customers  and  graduates —Marke&ng:  We  are  here  to  protect  you  and   family,  to  pay  out  generously  and  quickly  if   something  happens  to  you,  giving  you  peace   of  mind  at  a  fair  price.     —Investors:      We  make  shareholders  as  much   wealth  as  we  can  without  breaking  laws.  We   raise  premiums  as  o@en  as  we  can,  and  pay   out  as  liAle  as  possible  to  finance  dividends.
  5. 5. 6  words  spell      F  U  T  U  R  E   F ast U rban T ribal U niversal R adical E thical
  6. 6. ALL      BIG      RISKS      ARE      RELATED ReputaGon  -­‐  Events  -­‐  Focus  -­‐  Service
  7. 7. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  8. 8. AGILE leaders have more than one strategy and learn rapidly from each other
  9. 9. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices) Diversity  to  seize global  markets
  10. 10. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  11. 11. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  12. 12. >40% WDP by 2015 — IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  13. 13. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  14. 14. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  15. 15. RISK benchmarking over same investment cliff as everyone else
  16. 16. • £  375bn $2.3  trillion  US  +  $85bn  per  month
  17. 17. $3.4  trillion   Reserves  
  18. 18. The future is about EMOTION
  19. 19. 80%  lost  in  seconds  
  20. 20. aggregators  win with  only  one  form
  21. 21. Most  call-­‐centres slow,  blind  and   deaf (single  screen  -­‐  no  social  media)  
  22. 22. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
  23. 23. Personal  Financial  Services  in  Asia $300bn  growth  expected:  2011-­‐  2020  
  24. 24. China / Brazil 32% retail insurance growth pa
  25. 25. Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child Hyper-competive + regulation
  26. 26. 75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by   those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women
  27. 27. Falling  Family  Size  link  means   Insurance • Average  family  size  in  developing  naCons  fell   from  6  to  3  children  from  1950  to  2000       • Bangladesh  family  size  halved  in  20  years   • In  Iran  fell  from  7  in  1984  to  1.9  by  2006   • In  S  Korea  fell  from  6  to  <3  in  25  years • PopulaCon  falls  to  replacement  levels  at  $4000  -­‐   $10,000  a  year
  28. 28. Can we stop ageing ?
  29. 29. • Adenovirus • Infected mouse hair cells • Permanent colour change Permanent Hair Colour
  30. 30. Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales? Low blood pressure and total body lift Alteon
  31. 31. • Pigs teeth grown inside rats • Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum tissue Grow New Teeth
  32. 32. Repair of heart or brain damage following coronary / stroke using adult stem cells Repair Heart / Brain
  33. 33. • Harvard Bioscience • Bioreactor • Bone marrow stem cells • Polymer scaffold
  34. 34. Print New Skin (Lexmar)
  35. 35. Build Nanotech Robots
  36. 36. • Adenovirus contains Math1 gene • Turns young ear cells into hair cells • Inject virus particles into inner ear • New hair cells grow near Organ of Corti • Research in Guinea Pigs Cure for Deafness ? b
  37. 37. Confidential HSV1  causes  cold  sores.  When   engineered  as  Seprehvir   (HSV-­‐1716),  it  is  harmless  to   healthy  &ssue. • Oncolytic viruses • Infect and kill cancer tumour cells • No damage to healthy tissue • Evidence of impact in clinical trials • Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells • Micro-dose chemo, micro-dose radiotherapy Viruses to cure cancer ?
  38. 38. Monkeys on diet live longer • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay 55
  39. 39. Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boost R-alpha-lipoic acid Acetyl-L-carnitine
  40. 40. Slow  or  no  ageing  is  a  reality  in  animals Japan  women  gain  15  minutes  of  life  expectancy  every   • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales • No signs of getting old
  41. 41. lPeople  like  to  belong lSense  of  idenCty lCommunity   lFamily lInsurance  oTen  personal     Happy to Belong
  42. 42. 700,000  agents:  relaGonship
  43. 43. Reasons people choose non-life insurers
  44. 44. —Click to edit Master text styles —Click to edit Master text styles Huge Opportunity: customer experience
  45. 45. 1  trillion pages  a   month
  46. 46. "Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“ Madrid May 20, 2013 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“ Paris April 11, 2013 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick. 74  million  users  a  month
  47. 47. SCALE  +  FOCUS Survival  issues:    country   region  /  specialty  /   channel  /  technology  /   underwriGng  /  e-­‐sales
  48. 48. e-­‐commerce  hit   $1  trillion  in  2012  e-­‐marketer  
  49. 49. Italy:  58%  increase  in   aggregator  sales  of   policies  in  first  6   months  of  2013  v  2012
  50. 50. 56%  all  private  motor  insurance  sales Growth  1-­‐2%  pa  -­‐  reaching  saturaGon 30%  of  consumers  select  cheapest  policy   Further  58%  select  policy  in  top  five  cheapest ObjecGve  measure  of  brand  value UK  Aggregators  Threat
  51. 51. Weakness of all Aggregators
  52. 52. 33%  in  UK  don’t  watch  live  TV
  53. 53. >  200  million  mobile  payments     >  $160bn  
  54. 54. Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP
  55. 55. 1.7bn  users   unbanked
  56. 56. Mobile“On-time, anyhow, anywhere” Reduce customer support costs Boost cross-sell / up-sell (works well) Easier policy changes and renewals Policy alerts / progress on claims Integrated product offers Fusion with social media
  57. 57. 1500% growth car insurance black boxes Telematics Scale
  58. 58. 90% all global data generated in last 2 years Big  Data Sales,  underwriGng,  fraud  
  59. 59. Big Data means shift from Marketing to Advice
  60. 60. • Home • Work • Online • Offline • Sales • Entertain • Phone • Mobile • Chat • Social web ONE CUSTOMER
  61. 61. • 90%  Microsoh  R&D CLOUD
  62. 62. 5.5  billion  cyberajacks 42%  increase  /  year >160Gbps  in  denial  of  service 1000  major  ajacks  /  hr  in  UK Worries  about  US  Prism  /  security  services  
  63. 63. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  64. 64. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  65. 65. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert “40%  EU  power  =  wind  by  2050” Surplus  wind  to  hydrogen  -­‐  to  methane  ?
  66. 66. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power use QUEBEC from ARIZONA MOSCOW from SAHARA
  67. 67. Solar  cell  generaCon  for  same  price  
  68. 68. Only 5% EU power crosses borders
  69. 69. Enough salt caverns to power germany for a wee 96
  70. 70. Only sell what you believe in and would sell to your family and friends The  only  corporate  value  worth  having  
  71. 71. Truth  about  Retail  Funds —Next miss-selling scandal? Expect regulation++ —65-75% of actively managed funds fail to beat trackers - huge hidden charges —Most fund managers are reluctant to invest own money in own retail funds and do not recommend to their friends
  72. 72. “Trust  and  Transparency...We  aim  to  delight   our  customers  with  our  service  to  them  and   ensure  that  they  have  every  reason  to  renew   their  policy  every  year.”  Doing  the  Right  Thing. Big hidden penalties for loyal customers will be seen as unethical
  73. 73. •Individuals •Families •Teams •Shareholders •Communi&es •Wide  World CreaGng  a  Bejer  World Bejer  value,  customer  service,  underwriGng,   risk  management,  cost  control  and  profitability
  74. 74. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd globalchange.com 5 MILLION VIDEO VIEWS
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