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Future of Hotels
and Irish Hospitality Industry

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
ALL	
  	
  	
  BIG	
  	
  	
  TRENDS	
  	
  	
  ARE	
  	
  	
  RELATED

What	
  will	
  Irish	
  Hotel	
  Industry	
  look...
Tourism in Ireland EU 7bn

Around 200,000 jobs - 4.5% of GDP
50,000 in hotels and guest houses
11% of all workers in Irela...
Visitors to Ireland The Gathering 2013
Overseas visitors up 7%
US visitors up 15%
265,000 extra visitors was huge
achievem...
6,000 extra hotel beds in boom
- only 1500 lost in last 3-4 years
- 70% bed nights are Irish customers
Hotel Occupancy and Rates will
continue to recover
Hotel Occupancy and Rates will
continue to recover
Experiences Matter Most
Strategies often
overtaken by events
World can change faster than
you can hold a board meeting
You need
more than
one strategy
to grow your
hotel business
22
GLOBAL
ECONOMY
WILL GROW
2014-2020
WGP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  (%,constant	
  prices)	
  
US	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
EU	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
Vietnam	
  GDP	
  1985-­‐2011	
  
Republic of Ireland boom was
fed by low Euro interest rates

Low borrowing costs, high
inflation, fixed exchange rate
2% inflation
target likely to
be discarded
£	
  375bn
•

$2.3	
  trillion	
  US	
  +	
  $65bn	
  per	
  month
Euro	
  to	
  Pound	
  -­‐	
  managing	
  risk	
  
>40%	
  WDP	
  by	
  2015
— IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
$3.4	
  trillion	
  
Reserves	
  
300	
  million	
  move	
  to	
  ciSes	
  in	
  China
Rapidly	
  growing	
  middle	
  class	
  =	
  travellers
FUTURE of
TRAVEL will
be DRIVEN by
EMOTION and desire for EXPERIENCE
“Great	
  hotel	
  guest	
  experiences”	
  	
  

Mystery	
  Shopping	
  	
  
39
80%	
  lost	
  in	
  seconds	
  
Online	
  travel	
  revoluSon

Hotels,	
  conference	
  centres	
  and	
  travel	
  agents	
  
need	
  to	
  respond	
  in...
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

What	
  can	
  hotel	
  call-­‐centre	
  see	
  ?
LEISURE
GROWTH
MARKETS
People	
  Eat	
  Out	
  More	
  
Breaks	
  –	
  Stress-­‐Busters
•
•
•
•

Luxury and pleasure
Impulse buying
Special treats
Many more short citybreaks – at...
5%	
  in	
  UK	
  will	
  take	
  an	
  
adventure	
  break	
  in	
  2014	
  	
  
Tailor	
  made	
  holidays	
  /	
  
mulS-­‐desSnaSon	
  luxury
City	
  breaks	
  now	
  as	
  popular	
  as	
  beach	
  
holidays	
  for	
  UK	
  residents
Stag	
  weekend	
  /	
  Hen	
  weekend
Average	
  UK	
  15-­‐24	
  year	
  old	
  took	
  5	
  breaks	
  last	
  year
21,000 marriages a year in Ireland
and global trend is more elaborate
EU 600 million

• 5000 brides confetti.co.uk
Desire	
  to	
  be	
  Different	
  	
  
Memories	
  and	
  Moments
BUSINESS
GROWTH
MARKETS
68,000 overseas visitors to
Dublin conferences in 2013
Ireland events market EU100m a year
Making	
  it	
  more	
  Personal	
  
Demand	
  for	
  unusual	
  venues	
  is	
  growing
Business mixed with Leisure
• 33%	
  of	
  tourism	
  spending	
  
in	
  London	
  is	
  by	
  business	
  
travellers
OLDER
GUESTS
GROWTH
MARKET
1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
Europe Dying
4 couples to
produce single
great-grand child
in some nations
75%	
  of	
  all	
  US	
  and	
  UK	
  wealth	
  owned	
  by	
  
those	
  over	
  65	
  -­‐	
  mostly	
  women
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Rest	
  -­‐	
  Reading	
  
IMPACT
OF ONLINE
ON HOTELS
IN 2014
Would recommend
you to a friend ?
"Perfection!,"  TripAdvisor
Member, FEb 17, 2014 This was a
most beautiful Paris hotel. Delightful,
all perfect. We will s...
1	
  trillion	
  pages	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  a	
  month
1 Billion
accounts
e-­‐commerce	
  hits	
  $1.5	
  trillion	
  2014
12%	
  all	
  UK	
  retail
Huge growth aggregators
Price
Transparency
Italy:	
  58%	
  increase	
  in	
  
aggregator	
  sales	
  of	
  
insurance	
  in	
  first	
  6	
  
months	
  of	
  2013	
 ...
2014	
  ruling	
  by	
  Office	
  
of	
  Fair	
  Trading	
  allows	
  
Online	
  Travel	
  Agents	
  
to	
  discount	
  hote...
Hotel	
  booked
on	
  arrival	
  
in	
  city
Why	
  can’t	
  I	
  find	
  a	
  place	
  to	
  stay?
LocaSon	
  
MarkeSng
is	
  next
BIG	
  THING
•

Zettabyte
Exabyte
Petabyte
Terabytes

= 1024 Exabytes
= 1024 Petabytes
= 1024 Terabytes
= 1024 Gigabytes

BIG
Data
• Home
• Work
• Online
• Offline
• Sales
• Entertain
• Phone
• Mobile
• Chat
• Mobile

KNOW YOUR
CUSTOMER
Travel and Room
...
HOW TO
AMAZE
YOUR
GUESTS
Night Flight or Day Flight
Going out or coming home? – work, food, drink,
chat, party, unwind, dark, quiet, sleep, leave

...
100
Room
Key
Junk but no iron
108
The	
  only	
  hotel	
  value	
  worth	
  having	
  

Treat every customer as if a
member of your own family or a
friend e...
Wonderful	
  Memories
RESOURCES
>500 videos of Keynotes

http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon

Global Trends Website:
http://www.globalchange.com
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker
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Future of hotel industry in Ireland - keynote speaker and Futurist Patrick Dixon, slides of keynote given at Irish Hotels Federation event in Dublin 2014.

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Transcript of "Future of Hotels and Travel Industry - Hotel trends in Ireland - Keynote Speaker"

  1. 1. Future of Hotels and Irish Hospitality Industry Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
  2. 2. ALL      BIG      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED What  will  Irish  Hotel  Industry  look  like  in  2020  ? Downturn  is  (almost)  history  but  customers  have  CHANGED
  3. 3. Tourism in Ireland EU 7bn Around 200,000 jobs - 4.5% of GDP 50,000 in hotels and guest houses 11% of all workers in Ireland
  4. 4. Visitors to Ireland The Gathering 2013 Overseas visitors up 7% US visitors up 15% 265,000 extra visitors was huge achievement in difficult economic situation
  5. 5. 6,000 extra hotel beds in boom - only 1500 lost in last 3-4 years - 70% bed nights are Irish customers
  6. 6. Hotel Occupancy and Rates will continue to recover
  7. 7. Hotel Occupancy and Rates will continue to recover
  8. 8. Experiences Matter Most
  9. 9. Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  10. 10. You need more than one strategy to grow your hotel business
  11. 11. 22
  12. 12. GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL GROW 2014-2020
  13. 13. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
  14. 14. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  15. 15. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  16. 16. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  17. 17. Republic of Ireland boom was fed by low Euro interest rates Low borrowing costs, high inflation, fixed exchange rate
  18. 18. 2% inflation target likely to be discarded
  19. 19. £  375bn • $2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month
  20. 20. Euro  to  Pound  -­‐  managing  risk  
  21. 21. >40%  WDP  by  2015 — IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  22. 22. $3.4  trillion   Reserves  
  23. 23. 300  million  move  to  ciSes  in  China Rapidly  growing  middle  class  =  travellers
  24. 24. FUTURE of TRAVEL will be DRIVEN by
  25. 25. EMOTION and desire for EXPERIENCE
  26. 26. “Great  hotel  guest  experiences”     Mystery  Shopping     39
  27. 27. 80%  lost  in  seconds  
  28. 28. Online  travel  revoluSon Hotels,  conference  centres  and  travel  agents   need  to  respond  instantly  to  e-­‐mail
  29. 29.                 What  can  hotel  call-­‐centre  see  ?
  30. 30. LEISURE GROWTH MARKETS
  31. 31. People  Eat  Out  More  
  32. 32. Breaks  –  Stress-­‐Busters • • • • Luxury and pleasure Impulse buying Special treats Many more short citybreaks – at all times of year • Second main holidays / adventure / activity eg winter sun
  33. 33. 5%  in  UK  will  take  an   adventure  break  in  2014    
  34. 34. Tailor  made  holidays  /   mulS-­‐desSnaSon  luxury
  35. 35. City  breaks  now  as  popular  as  beach   holidays  for  UK  residents
  36. 36. Stag  weekend  /  Hen  weekend Average  UK  15-­‐24  year  old  took  5  breaks  last  year
  37. 37. 21,000 marriages a year in Ireland and global trend is more elaborate
  38. 38. EU 600 million • 5000 brides confetti.co.uk
  39. 39. Desire  to  be  Different    
  40. 40. Memories  and  Moments
  41. 41. BUSINESS GROWTH MARKETS
  42. 42. 68,000 overseas visitors to Dublin conferences in 2013 Ireland events market EU100m a year
  43. 43. Making  it  more  Personal  
  44. 44. Demand  for  unusual  venues  is  growing
  45. 45. Business mixed with Leisure • 33%  of  tourism  spending   in  London  is  by  business   travellers
  46. 46. OLDER GUESTS GROWTH MARKET
  47. 47. 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
  48. 48. Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child in some nations
  49. 49. 75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by   those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women
  50. 50.              Rest  -­‐  Reading  
  51. 51. IMPACT OF ONLINE ON HOTELS IN 2014
  52. 52. Would recommend you to a friend ?
  53. 53. "Perfection!,"  TripAdvisor Member, FEb 17, 2014 This was a most beautiful Paris hotel. Delightful, all perfect. We will stay again v soon. "Terrible! TripAdvisor Member, Jan 23, 2014 Terrible place, rats, dirty, noisy - sick with food poisoning for 2 weeks. Nearly died.
  54. 54. 1  trillion  pages                  a  month
  55. 55. 1 Billion accounts
  56. 56. e-­‐commerce  hits  $1.5  trillion  2014 12%  all  UK  retail
  57. 57. Huge growth aggregators
  58. 58. Price Transparency
  59. 59. Italy:  58%  increase  in   aggregator  sales  of   insurance  in  first  6   months  of  2013  v  2012
  60. 60. 2014  ruling  by  Office   of  Fair  Trading  allows   Online  Travel  Agents   to  discount  hotel   rooms,  paid  out  of   their  own  margins
  61. 61. Hotel  booked on  arrival   in  city
  62. 62. Why  can’t  I  find  a  place  to  stay?
  63. 63. LocaSon   MarkeSng is  next BIG  THING
  64. 64. • Zettabyte Exabyte Petabyte Terabytes = 1024 Exabytes = 1024 Petabytes = 1024 Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes BIG Data
  65. 65. • Home • Work • Online • Offline • Sales • Entertain • Phone • Mobile • Chat • Mobile KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER Travel and Room Preferences
  66. 66. HOW TO AMAZE YOUR GUESTS
  67. 67. Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? – work, food, drink, chat, party, unwind, dark, quiet, sleep, leave Best  for  Business Out  /  Back  
  68. 68. 100
  69. 69. Room Key
  70. 70. Junk but no iron
  71. 71. 108
  72. 72. The  only  hotel  value  worth  having   Treat every customer as if a member of your own family or a friend eg web / phone
  73. 73. Wonderful  Memories
  74. 74. RESOURCES >500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com
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