Future of Energy Industry - Green tech innovation - Conference keynote speaker

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http://www.globalchange.com Future trends relating to energy prices and oil price per barrel. Impact on global economic growth of rising oil prices. Balance between oil production and oil consumption. Peak oil and proven global oil reserves -- why they are rising. Oil from coal -- future trends in coal industry. Petroleum based products and petrochemical industry -- growing demand for all kinds of commodities including steel, copper, oil, coal, gas, all part of the growth of emerging economies such as China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore and so on. Impact on utility companies. Deep sea drilling, oilfields, engineering and environmental challenges including global warming / climate change. Impact of rising fuel costs on transport and transportation industry, aviation, rail travel, shipping, vehicle sales, car use, heating and air conditioning systems, building design and manufacturing. OPEC production quotas and their impact on global economic growth. Instability and revolution, impact of popular protests across Middle East oil producing nations. Government policy changes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia. Link between oil wealth and local unemployment. Inequalities of wealth and wealth distribution in future by governments keen to maintain political power. Impact of alternative energy production on oil consumption. Predictions for future energy costs.

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Future of Energy Industry - Green tech innovation - Conference keynote speaker

  1. 1. in a rapidly changing and uncertain world Dr Patrick DixonChairman Global Change Ltd for Vattenfall
  2. 2. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50) Future of Energy Industry - Green tech innovation for Vattenfall (2008) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.
  3. 3. A Four Word Phrase• Number one for the customer• Number one for the environment• Benchmark for the industry• Profitable growth• Employer of choice
  4. 4. Wild Cards: Risk ManagementLow probability, high impact events
  5. 5. Wild Cards: Risk ManagementLow probability, high impact events
  6. 6. Leaders need to act faster
  7. 7. The future isFast about emotion
  8. 8. Global Warming - facts
  9. 9. Radical New Shape of Politics Old Party Politics New Issues World view Narrow agenda Systematic Campaign History New causes Tradition Radical Left / Right Sometimes irrational
  10. 10. Government Action• Subsidies• Regulations• Will impact energy market for 50 years
  11. 11. Unstable Oil Prices Will Create Chaos
  12. 12. Why Biofuels Are No Answer
  13. 13. CO2 and Earth Temperature Future? Dip equivalent to 1 mile of ice over xsome of northern hemisphere 15,000 years ago Source: „Vostok“ (Antarctica) ice cores, World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA
  14. 14. 1 ton of carbon =• 556 square metres carbon dioxide• 1 ton of cement• short haul return flight• executive car driven 6,500 kilometres• gas heating bill of $1000• electricity bill of $2600
  15. 15. Stern Report $400-500bn pa• Gas supply and distribution 25%• Refined petroleum 24%• Electricity produce / distribute 16%• Cement production 19%• Fertilisers production and use 5%• Fishing 5%
  16. 16. Reduce carbon use + increase electricity demand (switch from local burning for travel + heat)
  17. 17. Impact of $40 Trillion CarbonBoom on Electricity Demand
  18. 18. Australia Peak Power Shortage• 40% energy = heat, cool, light buildings• Air conditioning  7% green-house gases• Peak electricity jumps 57%• 10% capacity used 4 days a year• Average $50  peak $10,000 per MWhr• Automatic meter readings – vary prices
  19. 19. Carbon WedgesPrinceton professors, Rob Socolow and Stephen Pacala
  20. 20. e
  21. 21. Renewable Power• Good for image• Marketing budget• Wind turbine roof• Small wind farm• Solar cells
  22. 22. Wind Power• $4m to build - 20 years• Payback 5 years• US sales of small turbines likely to exceed 100,000 a year
  23. 23. Wind Farms Making Money• $1m profit per year per land turbine (UK)• 2 megawatt (2MW) turbine can generate power worth $400,000 wholesale markets - plus another £300,000 of subsidy from taxpayers
  24. 24. Solar Cells = $500 / ton savedbut costs will fall fast towards 10c / KwH in hot countries
  25. 25. Expect Huge Global Growth
  26. 26. Large atoms split Huge growthSmall atoms fuseHuge investment
  27. 27. Geothermal• 70% new buildings in Sweden• 45% new buildings in New Zealand• 30% new buildings in Switzerland• Plus better insulation• Up to 50% energy savings• Payback 15 years
  28. 28. Geothermal Boosts Power Demand• UK government: 0.5m new homes in 5 years• 50% new homes = 100,000 a year• 1% conversion old homes = 250,000 a year• Total 350,000 systems a year x EU20,000 = EU7bn pa• Impact on power consumption = additional EU1300 of electricity pa per home EACH YEAR  6,500 KWh addition  shortage• 2,000,000,000 extra KWh each year
  29. 29. Rebalancing Air Conditioning• Energy saving 30-50%• More stable temperature• Intelligent
  30. 30. Street Lights• 5  2% of EU energy• 38  16% of total EU lighting energy• 120 million UE street lamps• 75% replace in 15 years at unit cost of EU600 including labour
  31. 31. Electric Cars• 16m new cars a year in EU• Assume 10% smallest cars are electric cars within 10 years• 300,000 a year• 8kw hours a day “fuel”• 2.4m KWh a day extra needed each year for 20 years• Could increase power consumption by 20% - but low cost at night
  32. 32. EnergyConsulting• Expect 5% of all expenditure on reducing carbon, on consultants
  33. 33. Offsets 1bn tons by 2012 Many Offsets Will Be Small• Eg School boiler convert to wood chips
  34. 34. Offsets for Marketing - Eurostar
  35. 35. Cost of making every flight carbon neutral is v low EU 5 – 1 hour flight EU 45 – 9 hour flight
  36. 36. Winning Talent• Older workers• Women• Other nationalities• Responsible business
  37. 37. Older Workers4 couples needed to produce just one great- grandchild
  38. 38. UrbanTribal Female Crisis • Half best talent is female • Most women leave • Solve talent crisis
  39. 39. Expect huge impact of EU accession countries on labour markets• 650,000 new Polish workers already in UK• 1 million more people every 3 years?• £60 return flight
  40. 40. 1 billion children in Africa andAsia will enterlabour market
  41. 41. The Biggest Question of All
  42. 42. Success in future willmean doing great things in the right way
  43. 43. Cause- related Marketing •81% more likely to buy product linked tocause they care about – or apply for job?
  44. 44. Crisis of Purpose at Work• 90% of 30-40 year olds want to leave conventional business jobs• 60% of 25-35 year olds feel unfulfilled in careers• 90% are looking for a higher purpose at work• 59% say they seen no meaningful purpose in their work or organisation
  45. 45. Employee Passion / Engagement• Gallup meta-survey > 10 million people• Businesses in top half of engagement score – 86% more likely to have better customer metrics – 70% more likely to have low staff turnover – 70% more likely to be highly productive – 44% more likely to be profitable• Only 33% of US employees are engaged
  46. 46. Making a Difference
  47. 47. Ethical Companies talk about • Growth • Profits • Shareholder value ( + customers…)
  48. 48. Ethical Individuals talk about… • Own needs • Family + friends • Community • Wider world
  49. 49. Ultimate energy slogan• For individuals – your own needs• For family – people close to you• For community – neighbourhood or nation• For the whole earth – the good of all
  50. 50. www.globalchange.com/ppt Slides and Videos 10 million unique visitors 600,000 videos viewed
  51. 51. 1. Efficient vehicles2. Reduced use of vehicles3. Efficient buildings4. Efficient baseload coal plants
  52. 52. 5. Gas baseload power for coal baseload power
  53. 53. • 6. Capture CO2 at baseload power plant 7. Capture CO2 at H2 plant (same link as above)• 8. Capture CO2 at coal-to-synfuels plant (same link as above)
  54. 54. • And cold fusion 9. Nuclear power for coal power
  55. 55. 10. Wind power for coal power 11. PV power for coal power12. Wind H2 in fuel-cell car for gasoline in hybrid 13. Biomass fuel for fossil fuel
  56. 56. 14. Reduced deforestation, plus reforestation, afforestation and new plantations 15. Conservation tillage
  57. 57. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50) Future of Energy Industry - Green tech innovation for Vattenfall (2008) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.

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