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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Take Hold of the Future
Key trends in Textiles and Retail
Text
— Soriana, Cencosud, Casino (CBD, Exito), Carrefour and Wal-Mart
 
Future of textiles is about
SPEED
• Click
13
Shale gas 33%
US supplies
3.3m US jobs
$468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
200 years global supply
Up from 60...
—30 million acres lost
—EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food
16
30% US grain now burnt in vehicles
Biofuels link energy a...
18
WGP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  (%,constant	
  prices)	
  
US	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
EU	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
Vietnam	
  GDP	
  1985-­‐2011	
  
>40%	
  WDP	
  by	
  2015
—IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
25
Future of textiles is about
EMOTION
US consumers willing to pay
more for 100% cotton
Telling a simple 10,000 year old story: Grown from land and will
return to the land - absorbs moisture, breaths, feels goo...
Future of textiles is about
DEMOGRAPHICS
1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
Europe Dying
4 couples to
produce single
great-grand child
0-14 years old EU 15% : Turkey 26%
>65 years old EU 18% : Turke...
75%	
  of	
  all	
  US	
  and	
  UK	
  wealth	
  owned	
  by	
  
those	
  over	
  65	
  -­‐	
  mostly	
  women
Future of textiles is about
EMERGING MARKETS
300 million move to cities in China and
475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
Growth of Middle Class in Africa
250m people - $2 trillion by 2040
Emerging Middle Class Love Cotton
Cotton consumption (m of tons) will
be dominated by emerging markets
Cotton in emerging markets: 96% mill use, 97% imports,
81% production, 52% exports
Winding down of huge
China stocks of cotton
Future of textiles is about SCALE
In	
  many	
  EU	
  naOons,	
  up	
  to	
  70%	
  of	
  retail	
  
spending	
  is	
  in	
  <8	
  companies
Future of textiles is about INNOVATION
Future of textiles is about MOBILE
e-­‐commerce	
  will	
  hit	
  
$1.5	
  trillion	
  in	
  2014
12%	
  of	
  all	
  retail	
  in	
  UK
Mobile Retail50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013
Mobile infl...
1	
  trillion	
  pages	
  	
  a	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  month
>	
  200	
  million	
  mobile	
  payments
>	
  70%	
  in	
  Africa	
  	
  
>	
  $160bn	
  
Kenya	
  -­‐	
  17m	
  customers
$9bn	
  pa	
  -­‐	
  >33%	
  GDP
LocaOon	
  MarkeOng
is	
  next
BIG	
  THING
Future of textiles is about Internet of Things
90% all global data
generated in
last 2 years
Big
Data
Future of textiles is about
Fusion of Online / Offline
Over	
  4000	
  road	
  hauliers	
  in	
  EU
1.3bn	
  home	
  delivered	
  e-­‐com	
  items	
  in	
  UK	
  
a	
  year	
  (...
Big	
  Returns
home	
  delivery	
  -­‐	
  sample	
  dresses	
  in	
  
every	
  size	
  -­‐	
  up	
  to	
  6	
  out	
  of	
...
71
3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months
Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries
Gold	
  standard:
10am	
  orders	
  for	
  3pm	
  Delivery
10am orders for 3pm Delivery
Future of textiles is about
SUSTAINABILITY and ETHICS
What is Sustainable Cotton ?
•Be$er	
  use	
  of	
  land,	
  water,	
  transport,	
  energy,	
  labour	
  force
•Benefit	
 ...
Double cotton production per acre since 1960s
Impact of transgenic cotton on yields
Synthetic textiles - industrial oil-based product
•In	
  the	
  UK,	
  sales	
  of	
  Fairtrade	
  products	
  in	
  2012	
  reached	
  £1.5
•78	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  con...
Organic v Fair Trade Bananas
Supply Chain - Cotton Initiative - Cotton Made in Africa
Partnership
Great	
  industry	
  examples	
  of	
  NGO	
  acOvists	
  as	
  
senior	
  policy	
  advisors
Key	
  supply	
 ...
Future of textiles is about
EMOTION + SPEED
DEMOGRAPHICS
EMERGING MARKETS
INNOVATION
SCALE + MOBILE
FUSION OF ONLINE / OFF...
•Individuals
•Families
•Farmers
•Workers
•Shareholders
•Communi4es
•Wide	
  World
Clothing	
  for	
  a	
  Be`er	
  World
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com
5 MILLION VIDEO VIEWS
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends
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Transcript of "Future of Cotton Industry, Textiles, Clothing and Retail Trends "

  1. 1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Take Hold of the Future Key trends in Textiles and Retail Text
  2. 2. — Soriana, Cencosud, Casino (CBD, Exito), Carrefour and Wal-Mart
  3. 3.  
  4. 4. Future of textiles is about SPEED
  5. 5. • Click 13
  6. 6. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  7. 7. —30 million acres lost —EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food 16 30% US grain now burnt in vehicles Biofuels link energy and land / food prices
  8. 8. 18
  9. 9. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
  10. 10. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  11. 11. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  12. 12. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  13. 13. >40%  WDP  by  2015 —IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  14. 14. 25
  15. 15. Future of textiles is about EMOTION
  16. 16. US consumers willing to pay more for 100% cotton
  17. 17. Telling a simple 10,000 year old story: Grown from land and will return to the land - absorbs moisture, breaths, feels good. 100% renewable, natural, biodegradeable. Huge improvements in land use, less water, less pesticides. 100 million farming families depend on cotton - in 80 nations
  18. 18. Future of textiles is about DEMOGRAPHICS
  19. 19. 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
  20. 20. Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child 0-14 years old EU 15% : Turkey 26% >65 years old EU 18% : Turkey 7%
  21. 21. 75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by   those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women
  22. 22. Future of textiles is about EMERGING MARKETS
  23. 23. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
  24. 24. Growth of Middle Class in Africa 250m people - $2 trillion by 2040
  25. 25. Emerging Middle Class Love Cotton
  26. 26. Cotton consumption (m of tons) will be dominated by emerging markets
  27. 27. Cotton in emerging markets: 96% mill use, 97% imports, 81% production, 52% exports
  28. 28. Winding down of huge China stocks of cotton
  29. 29. Future of textiles is about SCALE
  30. 30. In  many  EU  naOons,  up  to  70%  of  retail   spending  is  in  <8  companies
  31. 31. Future of textiles is about INNOVATION
  32. 32. Future of textiles is about MOBILE
  33. 33. e-­‐commerce  will  hit   $1.5  trillion  in  2014 12%  of  all  retail  in  UK
  34. 34. Mobile Retail50% of all UK online sales are using mobile Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013 Mobile influenced 72% of retail sales in Brazil in 2013
  35. 35. 1  trillion  pages    a                            month
  36. 36. >  200  million  mobile  payments >  70%  in  Africa     >  $160bn  
  37. 37. Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP
  38. 38. LocaOon  MarkeOng is  next BIG  THING
  39. 39. Future of textiles is about Internet of Things
  40. 40. 90% all global data generated in last 2 years Big Data
  41. 41. Future of textiles is about Fusion of Online / Offline
  42. 42. Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com  items  in  UK   a  year  (+12%  pa)
  43. 43. Big  Returns home  delivery  -­‐  sample  dresses  in   every  size  -­‐  up  to  6  out  of  7  clothing   items  returned
  44. 44. 71 3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries
  45. 45. Gold  standard: 10am  orders  for  3pm  Delivery 10am orders for 3pm Delivery
  46. 46. Future of textiles is about SUSTAINABILITY and ETHICS
  47. 47. What is Sustainable Cotton ? •Be$er  use  of  land,  water,  transport,  energy,  labour  force •Benefit  to  environment,  communi;es  and  future  world
  48. 48. Double cotton production per acre since 1960s Impact of transgenic cotton on yields
  49. 49. Synthetic textiles - industrial oil-based product
  50. 50. •In  the  UK,  sales  of  Fairtrade  products  in  2012  reached  £1.5 •78  per  cent  of  consumers  recognise  the  FAIRTRADE  Mark •One  in  every  three  bananas  sold •44  per  cent  of  bagged  sugar  sold •25  per  cent  of  all  roast  and  ground  retail  coffee   •Fairtrade  products  are  now  sold  in  more  than  125  countries •FAIRTRADE  logo  most  widely-­‐recognised  ethical  label  globally Fair Trade Food Sales up 18% pa
  51. 51. Organic v Fair Trade Bananas
  52. 52. Supply Chain - Cotton Initiative - Cotton Made in Africa
  53. 53. Partnership Great  industry  examples  of  NGO  acOvists  as   senior  policy  advisors Key  supply  chain  partnerships Delivery  Timing  -­‐  AdapaOon  -­‐  InnovaOon   IntegraOon  -­‐  CollaboraOon  -­‐  Accountability     Transparency  -­‐  Sustainability
  54. 54. Future of textiles is about EMOTION + SPEED DEMOGRAPHICS EMERGING MARKETS INNOVATION SCALE + MOBILE FUSION OF ONLINE / OFFLINE INTERNET OF THINGS SUSTAINABILITY and ETHICS
  55. 55. •Individuals •Families •Farmers •Workers •Shareholders •Communi4es •Wide  World Clothing  for  a  Be`er  World
  56. 56. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd globalchange.com 5 MILLION VIDEO VIEWS
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