Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

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Future of banking, future of retail banking, corporate banking, wholesale banking and private banking. Investment banking trends. Future of banking regulation and compliance in financial services. …

Future of banking, future of retail banking, corporate banking, wholesale banking and private banking. Investment banking trends. Future of banking regulation and compliance in financial services. Future of insurance, mobile marketing and customer expectations, choices and lifestyle trends. Future of alternative payment methods including PayPal, mPesa and Bitcoin. How banking customers are changing. Future of consolidation and mergers in global banking.

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  • 1. Global Trends and their Impact on Future of Banking Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd www.globalchange.com - 5 million video views
  • 2. ALL      BANKING      TRENDS      RELATED What  will  your  Bank  (and  your  compe6tors)  look  like  in  2020  ?
  • 3. SIX  FACES  of  a   spinning  CUBE  spell  the  word F  U  T  U  R  E
  • 4. Most debates about future banking and insurance strategy are about timing and focus What if global recovery / Turkey economy / mobile payments / retail spending / bank regulation / inflation / demographics, the EU, Middle East and rise of Asian markets all change faster than expected?
  • 5. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles 9
  • 6. Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  • 7. Further Shocks? EU / Euro Syria / Iran / US / Israel China / Japan Mutant virus Libor lawsuits (Asbestos: 730,000 claimants - 8500 defendents - $250bn already)
  • 8. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
  • 9. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  • 10. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013   (%,constant  prices)  
  • 11. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  • 12. Bank Agility requires Simplicity
  • 13. Future is about... 19
  • 14. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  • 15. • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles
  • 16. You need more than one banking strategy
  • 17. £  375bn • $2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month
  • 18. $3.4  trillion   Reserves  
  • 19. 2% inflation target likely to be discarded
  • 20. Future Banking is about EMOTION
  • 21. Yapı Kredi employees build relationships based on trust with all relevant parties utilising their banking knowledge, skills and commitment to corporate values; they trust those that they grant responsibility and authority. Consistent with the Bank’s corporate values, Yapı Kredi employees keep their promises in a timely and accurate manner. They take responsibility for their customers’ problems, find rapid solutions and follow up on the results.
  • 22. “Great  customer  experiences”     31
  • 23. 80%  lost  in  seconds  
  • 24.                
  • 25. Bank Customer / Client : Simple, elegant solutions to complex problems Anticipate, instinct, smart Thought-leadership, common sense, reliable advice Superb backup in crisis
  • 26. >40%  WDP  by  2015 — IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  • 27. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
  • 28. 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
  • 29. Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child 0-14 years old EU 15% : Turkey 26% >65 years old EU 18% : Turkey 7%
  • 30. 75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by   those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women
  • 31. Can we stop ageing ?
  • 32. Grow New Teeth • Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats • Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum
  • 33. Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
  • 34. Monkeys on diet live longer • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay 46
  • 35. Slow  or  no  ageing  is  a  reality  in  animals Japan  women  gain  15  minutes  of  life  expectancy  every  hour • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales • No signs of getting old
  • 36. “Relationship Banking” lPeople like to belong lSense of identity lCommunity lFamily lPersonal advisor
  • 37. 50
  • 38. 85%  of  leaders  of  largest  US   corpora6ons  say  diversity  is   key  to  innova6on Forbes  study
  • 39. 33%  in  UK  don’t  watch  live  TV
  • 40. 95%  EU  bandwidth  soon  video
  • 41. 1  trillion pages  a   month
  • 42. Would recommend you to a friend ?
  • 43. 1  trillion  pages                  a  month
  • 44. "Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“ Telford UK, May 20, 2012 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“  Paris April, 2012 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
  • 45. Italy:  58%  increase  in   aggregator  sales  of   insurance  policies  in   first  6  months  of  2013   v  2012
  • 46. UK  Aggregators  Threat 56%  all  private  motor  insurance  sales Growth  1-­‐2%  pa  -­‐  reaching  saturaYon 30%  of  consumers  select  cheapest  policy   Further  58%  select  policy  in  top  five  cheapest ObjecYve  measure  of  brand  value
  • 47. Weakness of all Aggregators
  • 48. Nationalism Attempts to skew markets with government policy Exchange rate wars Corporation tax spiral Turning blind eye to ....
  • 49. “Universal Banking” Scale - Innovation Speed Is the bank large enough for the future ? Eat or be Eaten or more Strategic Mergers
  • 50. Why “old” outsourcing story in India nearly over
  • 51. — Training 25,000 IT graduates pa
  • 52. Location based mobile marketing
  • 53. 1500% growth car insurance black boxes Telematics Scale
  • 54. e-­‐commerce  hits   $1.5  trillion  in  2014
  • 55. CUSTOMER  CHOICE   200  million  payments  globally
  • 56. Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP Tanzania  9m  people 35  naYon  links  via  HomeSend  Hub
  • 57. 1.7bn  phone   users  are   unbanked 74
  • 58. Global  Remibances $550bn in 2012 - 214m transfers 150m immigrants globally World’s poorest 48 nations = double FDI value 33% of Liberia economy $55bn remittances by mobile in 2016 •
  • 59. Western  Union $76bn a year 20% charge in Africa
  • 60. Tablets Boom •
  • 61. Paypal  Mobile   PayPal      $141m  -­‐  $4bn              2009-­‐11  
  • 62. 2m  businesses  use   SQUARE   in  US 79
  • 63. Square  Daily  Volumes    soon  handling  7000  Starbucks  outlets  
  • 64. Bitcoin  Bubble  and  Bust?   Secret and untraceable
  • 65. Mobile Banking Payments Doorway • • • • • In UK alone.... Transactions >EU600 billion pa Credit card debt >EU60bn Average card interest rate 16% 2% commissions worth >£EU12bn 82
  • 66. TelcoBanks Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                          
  • 67. • Zettabyte Exabyte Petabyte Terabytes = 1024 Exabytes = 1024 Petabytes = 1024 Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes BIG Data
  • 68. • 90%  Microso+  R&D CLOUD
  • 69. Aramco - 30,000 computers hit - files lost
  • 70. 5.5  billion  cybera;acks 42%  increase  /  year >160Gbps  in  denial  of  service 1000  major  abacks  /  hr  in  UK Worries  about  US  Prism  /  security  services  
  • 71. • Home • Work • Online • Offline • Sales • Entertain • Phone • Mobile • Chat • Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc ONE CUSTOMER
  • 72. Regulatory Swings eg Capital Adequacy / ROI Public pressure v Reality
  • 73. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  • 74. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  • 75. Boom Bust
  • 76. 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawaDs  wind   Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China 57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  
  • 77. 120,000 terawatts of ARIZONA sunlight /day QUEBEC  from   7,000 times total power use MOSCOW  from  SAHARA
  • 78. Falling  solar  cell  prices  
  • 79. 120,000 terawatts wind by 2050” “40% EU power = of sunlight /day Surplus wind to total global to methane ? 7,000 times hydrogen - power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
  • 80. Smart  Power  Regula6on   UBlity  Co  controls  consumpBon  in  homes  /  factories 10%  Australian  power  genera6on  only  used  for  72  hours  a  year Energy  prices  can  soar  from  $50/Mw  hour  to  $10,000/  Mw  hour
  • 81. Germany  Power  Surplus • In  June  2013 • Electricity  prices  became  nega6ve   • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!
  • 82. • Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids • 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project • China planning to power Moscow
  • 83. Power  Storage   Enough salt caverns planned to power Germany for a week
  • 84. The  only  corporate  value  worth  having   Only sell what you believe in and would sell to your family and friends
  • 85. Beyond Compliance Perfect compliance will keep bankers out of prison but cannot protect brand, because public expectations change rapidly - with severe judgment on those who justify past “unethical” behaviour on grounds that it was 100% compliant.
  • 86. Poor  insurance  image  with  customers   —Marke&ng:  We  are  here  to  protect  you  and   family,  to  pay  out  generously  and  quickly  if   something  happens  to  you,  giving  you  peace   of  mind  at  a  fair  price.     —Investors:      We  make  shareholders  as  much   wealth  as  we  can  without  breaking  laws.  We   raise  premiums  as  o@en  as  we  can,  and  pay   out  as  liAle  as  possible  to  finance  dividends.
  • 87. Hidden penalties for loyal customers will be seen as unethical
  • 88. Truth about Retail Funds — Next miss-selling scandal? — Most actively managed funds fail to beat tracker funds, when all charges deducted — Most fund managers I have surveyed (total > $1 trillion under management) are reluctant to invest own money in own retail funds unless they are required to, and reluctant to recommend own funds to family / friends — “50% of us sell funds of funds but only 5% of us invest in them” — Ethical questions since whole purpose of active management is to protect wealth, not erode it (as is most likely outcome under current business models)
  • 89. Purpose of Business All sales based on a promise Purpose of business is to deliver on the promise Profit is your reward for doing so
  • 90. Profit   -­‐  Purpose  -­‐ Passion
  • 91. COST CUTTING Can be demoralising
  • 92. All  leadership  and   innovaYon  comes   from  vision  of  a   beher  future
  • 93. Idea   -­‐  Genius  -­‐ SoluYon
  • 94. Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profit   FoundaYons Connect  with  all  the  passions   people  have  and  they  will  follow   you  to  the  ends  of  the  earth,   promote  what  you  do  with  pride,   and  may  even  be  willing  to  work   for  you  for  next  to  nothing
  • 95. EU20,000  Challenge “4  word  phrase  is  basis   of  all  markeYng,   moYvaYon,  change   management and  leadership”
  • 96. Build a Better World individual family community world
  • 97. RESOURCES >500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com