Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
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Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker

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Future of banking and financial services - keynote by Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon for Nordea / London Business School. Future of retail banking, future of corporate banking for SMEs and ...

Future of banking and financial services - keynote by Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon for Nordea / London Business School. Future of retail banking, future of corporate banking for SMEs and multinational companies, future of institutional banking, future of mobile banking and mobile payments, future of retail, future of banking regulation and banking compliance. Banking ethics, and leadership of banks.

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Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker Presentation Transcript

  • Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 Accelerate Your Future
  • ! Keynote  for  Nordea  senior  leaders  -­‐  change   management,  strategy  and  key  trends.  This   presenta:on  contains  many  video  clips.   ! ! 100s  more  presenta:ons,  videos  and  ar:cles:   ! h?p://www.globalchange.com   ! h?p://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon  
  • Future  Trends   Impact  on  Nordea   Strategic  Opportuni:es   60  second  pitches   ! -­‐  As  if  you  are  the  board  of  the  bank  with  an  external  advisor  -­‐    
  • ! ALL      BIG      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED   ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What  will  Nordea  (and  your  compe:tors)  look  like  in    2020  ?  
  • EU20,000  Challenge   “4  word  phrase  is  basis     of  all  marke:ng,   mo:va:on,  change   management   and  leadership”
  • do  things  you  believe  in Life  Ma?ers
  • “Great  leadership  is  the   ability  to  engage  and   mo:vate  people  to  reach   out  for  our  vision  and  the   ability  to  create  the  right   team  to  make  it  happen.”
  • All  leadership   comes  from   VISION  of  a   be?er  future
  • Most debates about future strategy are about timing and focus ! What if global recovery / mobile payments / retail spending / bank regulation / inflation / life expectancy, the EU and rise of Asian markets all change faster than expected?
  • !16
  • • Click  to  edit  Master  text   styles 20
  • Further Shocks? ! EU / Euro Russia / Iran / US / Israel China / Japan Mutant virus Libor lawsuits ! (Asbestos: 730,000 claimants - 8500 defendents - $250bn already)
  • ! Strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  • ! Agility requires Simplicity
  • WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
  • US  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  • EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  • Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  • ONE  WORD   will  drive  the   future  
  • !30 Future is about...
  • • £  375bn ! ! ! $2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month  
  • $3.4  trillion   ! Reserves  
  • ! 2% inflation target likely to be discarded
  • !37
  • !38
  • The future is about EMOTION
  • “Each  customer  must  know  they  can  trust  our  advice   and  that  we  will  be  there  when  they  need  us  most”  
  • 42 “Great  customer  experiences”    
  • 80%  lost  in  seconds  
  • !?!
  •                
  • ! Bank Customer / Client : ! Simple, elegant solutions to complex problems Anticipate, instinct, smart Thought-leadership, common sense, reliable advice Superb backup in crisis
  • >40%  WDP  by  2015 —IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  • 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • ! 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
  • Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
  • Can we stop ageing ?
  • •Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats   •Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum Grow New Teeth
  • Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
  • • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay !58 Monkeys on diet live longer
  • Slow  or  no  ageing  is  a  reality  in  animals Japan  women  gain  15  minutes  of  life  expectancy  every  hour • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! • No signs of getting old
  • lPeople like to belong lSense of identity lCommunity lFamily lPersonal advisor “Relationship Banking” 2.3 million customer meetings a year with over 10 million customers
  • !62 “Gender  diversity  is  key  lever      to  realise  leadership  poten:al”
  • 85%  of  leaders  of  largest  US   corpora:ons  say  diversity  is   key  to  innova:on Forbes  study
  • 1  trillion   pages  a   month   !
  • Would recommend you to a friend ? !
  • 1  trillion  pages                  a  month  
  • "Perfection!,Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“! Telford UK, May 20, 2012
 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. 
 “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“  Paris April, 2012
 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
  • “Universal Banking” Scale - Innovation Speed Is the bank large enough for the future ? Eat or be Eaten or more Strategic Mergers
  • Why “old” outsourcing story in India nearly over
  • CUSTOMER  CHOICE   200  million  payments  globally !
  • ! Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers   $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP   Tanzania  9m  people   35  na:on  links  via  HomeSend  Hub  
  • 75 1.7bn  phone   users  are   unbanked
  • 76 • In UK alone.... • Transactions >EU600 billion pa • Credit card debt >EU60bn • Average card interest rate 16% • 2% commissions worth >£EU12bn Payments Doorway
  • Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                     TelcoBanks
  • • Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes
 Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes
 Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes
 Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes BIG Data
  • • Home • Work • Online • Offline • Sales • Entertain • Phone • Mobile • Chat • Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc ! ONE CUSTOMER
  • Regulatory Swings ! eg Capital Adequacy / ROI ! Public pressure v Reality
  • ! Benchmarking Risk
  • $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  • Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 ! 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  • Boom Bust
  • 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawa5s  wind   Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China 57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  
  • 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total power use QUEBEC  from  ARIZONA   MOSCOW  from  SAHARA
  • Solar  cell  genera:on  parity  
  • Falling  solar  cell  prices  
  • 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert “40% EU power = wind by 2050” Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
  • Smart  Power  Regula:on     U:lity  Co  controls  consump:on  in  homes  /  factories   10%  Australian  power  genera:on  only  used  for  72  hours  a  year   Energy  prices  can  soar  from  $50/Mw  hour  to  $10,000/  Mw  hour
  • Germany  Power  Surplus ! • In  June  2013   • Electricity  prices  became  nega:ve     • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!
  • •Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids •500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project ! ! ! ! •China planning to power Moscow
  • Enough salt caverns planned to power Germany for a week Power  Storage    
  • —30 million acres lost ! —EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food 25% of 2010 US grain à fuel
 30% US grain burnt in cars
  • do things you believe in sell things you believe in
  • Beyond Compliance ! Perfect compliance will keep bankers out of prison but cannot protect brand, because public expectations change rapidly - with severe judgment on those who justify past “unethical” behaviour on grounds that it was 100% compliant.
  • Truth about Retail Funds —Next miss-selling scandal? —Most actively managed funds fail to beat tracker funds, when all charges deducted —Most fund managers I have surveyed (total > $1 trillion under management) are reluctant to invest own money in own retail funds unless they are required to, and reluctant to recommend own funds to family / friends —“50% of us sell funds of funds but only 5% of us invest in them” —Ethical questions since whole purpose of active management is to protect wealth, not erode it (as is most likely outcome under current business models)
  • All sales based on a promise Purpose of business is to deliver on the promise Profit is your reward for doing so Purpose of Business
  • Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profit   Founda:ons   ! Connect  with  all  the  passions   people  have  and  they  will  follow   you  to  the  ends  of  the  earth,   promote  what  you  do  with  pride,   and  may  even  be  willing  to  work  for   you  for  next  to  nothing  
  • EU20,000  Challenge   “4  word  phrase  is  basis     of  all  marke:ng,   mo:va:on,  change   management   and  leadership”
  • Build a Better World !individual family community world
  • RESOURCES ! >500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon ! ! Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com !