0
Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd


Accelerate Your Future
!
Keynote	
  for	
  Nordea	
  senior	
  leaders	
  -­‐	
  change	
  
management,	
  strategy	
  and	
  key	
  trends.	
  T...
Future	
  Trends	
  
Impact	
  on	
  Nordea	
  
Strategic	
  Opportuni:es	
  
60	
  second	
  pitches	
  
!
-­‐	
  As	
  i...
!
ALL	
  	
  	
  BIG	
  	
  	
  TRENDS	
  	
  	
  ARE	
  	
  	
  RELATED	
  
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
What	
  will	
  Nordea	
  (and	...
EU20,000	
  Challenge	
  
“4	
  word	
  phrase	
  is	
  basis	
  	
  
of	
  all	
  marke:ng,	
  
mo:va:on,	
  change	
  
m...
do	
  things	
  you	
  believe	
  in
Life	
  Ma?ers
“Great	
  leadership	
  is	
  the	
  
ability	
  to	
  engage	
  and	
  
mo:vate	
  people	
  to	
  reach	
  
out	
  for	
...
All	
  leadership	
  
comes	
  from	
  
VISION	
  of	
  a	
  
be?er	
  future
Most debates about future
strategy are about timing
and focus
!
What if global recovery / mobile payments
/ retail spendin...
!16
• Click	
  to	
  edit	
  Master	
  text	
  
styles
20
Further Shocks?
!
EU / Euro
Russia / Iran / US / Israel
China / Japan
Mutant virus
Libor lawsuits
!
(Asbestos: 730,000 cla...
!
Strategies often
overtaken by events
!
World can change faster than
you can hold a board meeting
!
Agility
requires
Simplicity
WGP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  (%,constant	
  prices)	
  
US	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
EU	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
Vietnam	
  GDP	
  1985-­‐2011	
  
ONE	
  WORD	
  
will	
  drive	
  the	
  
future	
  
!30
Future is about...
•
£	
  375bn
!
!
!
$2.3	
  trillion	
  US	
  +	
  $65bn	
  per	
  month	
  
$3.4	
  trillion	
  
!
Reserves	
  
!
2% inflation
target likely to
be discarded
!37
!38
The future is about
EMOTION
“Each	
  customer	
  must	
  know	
  they	
  can	
  trust	
  our	
  advice	
  
and	
  that	
  we	
  will	
  be	
  there	
 ...
42
“Great	
  customer	
  experiences”	
  	
  
80%	
  lost	
  in	
  seconds	
  
!?!
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
!
Bank Customer / Client :
!
Simple, elegant solutions to
complex problems
Anticipate, instinct, smart
Thought-leadership,...
>40%	
  WDP	
  by	
  2015
—IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
300 million move to cities in China and
475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
Europe Dying
!
4 couples to
produce single
great-grand child
Can we stop ageing ?
•Pigs	
  teeth	
  grown	
  inside	
  rats	
  
•Mice	
  grow	
  new	
  teeth	
  from	
  nerve	
  cells	
  /	
  gum
Grow New...
Repair Heart / Brain
with stem cells
• After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories
• Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay
!58
Mon...
Slow	
  or	
  no	
  ageing	
  is	
  a	
  reality	
  in	
  animals
Japan	
  women	
  gain	
  15	
  minutes	
  of	
  life	
 ...
lPeople like to belong
lSense of identity
lCommunity
lFamily
lPersonal advisor
“Relationship Banking”
2.3 million cus...
!62
“Gender	
  diversity	
  is	
  key	
  lever	
  
	
  	
  to	
  realise	
  leadership	
  poten:al”
85%	
  of	
  leaders	
  of	
  largest	
  US	
  
corpora:ons	
  say	
  diversity	
  is	
  
key	
  to	
  innova:on
Forbes	
 ...
1	
  trillion	
  
pages	
  a	
  
month	
  
!
Would recommend
you to a friend ?
!
1	
  trillion	
  pages	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  a	
  month	
  
"Perfection!,Wonderful hotel. Good value,
beautiful views.“!
Telford UK, May 20, 2012

This was the most beautiful hotel. ...
“Universal Banking”
Scale - Innovation Speed
Is the bank large enough for the future ?
Eat or be Eaten or more Strategic M...
Why “old” outsourcing story in India
nearly over
CUSTOMER	
  CHOICE	
  
200	
  million	
  payments	
  globally
!
!
Kenya	
  -­‐	
  17m	
  customers	
  
$9bn	
  pa	
  -­‐	
  >33%	
  GDP	
  
Tanzania	
  9m	
  people	
  
35	
  na:on	
  li...
75
1.7bn	
  phone	
  
users	
  are	
  
unbanked
76
• In UK alone....
• Transactions >EU600 billion pa
• Credit card debt >EU60bn
• Average card interest rate 16%
• 2% com...
Free mobile devices	

calls / web / TV / games / pay	

Higher income model
2010	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
 ...
• Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes

Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes

Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes

Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes
BIG
Data
• Home
• Work
• Online
• Offline
• Sales
• Entertain
• Phone
• Mobile
• Chat
• Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc
!
O...
Regulatory
Swings
!
eg Capital Adequacy / ROI
!
Public pressure v Reality
!
Benchmarking
Risk
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom
driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33%
US supplies
3.3m US jobs
$468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
!
200 years global supply
Up from ...
Boom
Bust
5	
  coal	
  plants	
  replace	
  with	
  gas	
  =	
  9000	
  megawa5s	
  wind	
  
Coal	
  prices	
  fall	
  =	
  more	
  ...
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day

7,000 times total power use
QUEBEC	
  from	
  ARIZONA	
  
MOSCOW	
  from	
  SAHARA
Solar	
  cell	
  genera:on	
  parity	
  
Falling	
  solar	
  cell	
  prices	
  
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day

7,000 times total global power use
Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
“40% EU power = win...
Smart	
  Power	
  Regula:on	
  	
  
U:lity	
  Co	
  controls	
  consump:on	
  in	
  homes	
  /	
  factories	
  
10%	
  Aus...
Germany	
  Power	
  Surplus
!
• In	
  June	
  2013	
  
• Electricity	
  prices	
  became	
  nega:ve	
  	
  
• -­‐	
  minus...
•Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids	

•500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project	

!
!
!
!
•China planning to power Mosc...
Enough salt caverns
planned to power
Germany for a week
Power	
  Storage	
  	
  
—30 million acres lost
!
—EU 5% gasoline and diesel
from food
25% of 2010 US grain à fuel

30% US grain burnt in cars
do things you believe in
sell things you believe in
Beyond
Compliance
!
Perfect compliance will keep bankers
out of prison but cannot protect brand,
because public expectatio...
Truth about Retail Funds
—Next miss-selling scandal?
—Most actively managed funds fail to beat tracker funds,
when all c...
All sales based on a promise
Purpose of business is to deliver
on the promise
Profit is your reward for doing so
Purpose o...
Lesson	
  from	
  Non-­‐Profit	
  
Founda:ons	
  
!
Connect	
  with	
  all	
  the	
  passions	
  
people	
  have	
  and	
  ...
EU20,000	
  Challenge	
  
“4	
  word	
  phrase	
  is	
  basis	
  	
  
of	
  all	
  marke:ng,	
  
mo:va:on,	
  change	
  
m...
Build a Better World
!individual family community world
RESOURCES
!
>500 videos of Keynotes
http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon
!
!
Global Trends Website:
http://www.globalchange.com...
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker
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Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker

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Future of banking and financial services - keynote by Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon for Nordea / London Business School. Future of retail banking, future of corporate banking for SMEs and multinational companies, future of institutional banking, future of mobile banking and mobile payments, future of retail, future of banking regulation and banking compliance. Banking ethics, and leadership of banks.

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Transcript of "Future of Banking and Financial Services - lecture for Nordea Bank - Banking Keynote Speaker"

  1. 1. Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 Accelerate Your Future
  2. 2. ! Keynote  for  Nordea  senior  leaders  -­‐  change   management,  strategy  and  key  trends.  This   presenta:on  contains  many  video  clips.   ! ! 100s  more  presenta:ons,  videos  and  ar:cles:   ! h?p://www.globalchange.com   ! h?p://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon  
  3. 3. Future  Trends   Impact  on  Nordea   Strategic  Opportuni:es   60  second  pitches   ! -­‐  As  if  you  are  the  board  of  the  bank  with  an  external  advisor  -­‐    
  4. 4. ! ALL      BIG      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED   ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What  will  Nordea  (and  your  compe:tors)  look  like  in    2020  ?  
  5. 5. EU20,000  Challenge   “4  word  phrase  is  basis     of  all  marke:ng,   mo:va:on,  change   management   and  leadership”
  6. 6. do  things  you  believe  in Life  Ma?ers
  7. 7. “Great  leadership  is  the   ability  to  engage  and   mo:vate  people  to  reach   out  for  our  vision  and  the   ability  to  create  the  right   team  to  make  it  happen.”
  8. 8. All  leadership   comes  from   VISION  of  a   be?er  future
  9. 9. Most debates about future strategy are about timing and focus ! What if global recovery / mobile payments / retail spending / bank regulation / inflation / life expectancy, the EU and rise of Asian markets all change faster than expected?
  10. 10. !16
  11. 11. • Click  to  edit  Master  text   styles 20
  12. 12. Further Shocks? ! EU / Euro Russia / Iran / US / Israel China / Japan Mutant virus Libor lawsuits ! (Asbestos: 730,000 claimants - 8500 defendents - $250bn already)
  13. 13. ! Strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  14. 14. ! Agility requires Simplicity
  15. 15. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
  16. 16. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  17. 17. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  18. 18. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  19. 19. ONE  WORD   will  drive  the   future  
  20. 20. !30 Future is about...
  21. 21. • £  375bn ! ! ! $2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month  
  22. 22. $3.4  trillion   ! Reserves  
  23. 23. ! 2% inflation target likely to be discarded
  24. 24. !37
  25. 25. !38
  26. 26. The future is about EMOTION
  27. 27. “Each  customer  must  know  they  can  trust  our  advice   and  that  we  will  be  there  when  they  need  us  most”  
  28. 28. 42 “Great  customer  experiences”    
  29. 29. 80%  lost  in  seconds  
  30. 30. !?!
  31. 31.                
  32. 32. ! Bank Customer / Client : ! Simple, elegant solutions to complex problems Anticipate, instinct, smart Thought-leadership, common sense, reliable advice Superb backup in crisis
  33. 33. >40%  WDP  by  2015 —IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  34. 34. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  35. 35. ! 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
  36. 36. Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
  37. 37. Can we stop ageing ?
  38. 38. •Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats   •Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum Grow New Teeth
  39. 39. Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
  40. 40. • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay !58 Monkeys on diet live longer
  41. 41. Slow  or  no  ageing  is  a  reality  in  animals Japan  women  gain  15  minutes  of  life  expectancy  every  hour • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! • No signs of getting old
  42. 42. lPeople like to belong lSense of identity lCommunity lFamily lPersonal advisor “Relationship Banking” 2.3 million customer meetings a year with over 10 million customers
  43. 43. !62 “Gender  diversity  is  key  lever      to  realise  leadership  poten:al”
  44. 44. 85%  of  leaders  of  largest  US   corpora:ons  say  diversity  is   key  to  innova:on Forbes  study
  45. 45. 1  trillion   pages  a   month   !
  46. 46. Would recommend you to a friend ? !
  47. 47. 1  trillion  pages                  a  month  
  48. 48. "Perfection!,Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“! Telford UK, May 20, 2012
 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. 
 “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“  Paris April, 2012
 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
  49. 49. “Universal Banking” Scale - Innovation Speed Is the bank large enough for the future ? Eat or be Eaten or more Strategic Mergers
  50. 50. Why “old” outsourcing story in India nearly over
  51. 51. CUSTOMER  CHOICE   200  million  payments  globally !
  52. 52. ! Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers   $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP   Tanzania  9m  people   35  na:on  links  via  HomeSend  Hub  
  53. 53. 75 1.7bn  phone   users  are   unbanked
  54. 54. 76 • In UK alone.... • Transactions >EU600 billion pa • Credit card debt >EU60bn • Average card interest rate 16% • 2% commissions worth >£EU12bn Payments Doorway
  55. 55. Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                     TelcoBanks
  56. 56. • Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes
 Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes
 Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes
 Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes BIG Data
  57. 57. • Home • Work • Online • Offline • Sales • Entertain • Phone • Mobile • Chat • Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc ! ONE CUSTOMER
  58. 58. Regulatory Swings ! eg Capital Adequacy / ROI ! Public pressure v Reality
  59. 59. ! Benchmarking Risk
  60. 60. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  61. 61. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 ! 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  62. 62. Boom Bust
  63. 63. 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawa5s  wind   Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China 57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  
  64. 64. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total power use QUEBEC  from  ARIZONA   MOSCOW  from  SAHARA
  65. 65. Solar  cell  genera:on  parity  
  66. 66. Falling  solar  cell  prices  
  67. 67. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert “40% EU power = wind by 2050” Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
  68. 68. Smart  Power  Regula:on     U:lity  Co  controls  consump:on  in  homes  /  factories   10%  Australian  power  genera:on  only  used  for  72  hours  a  year   Energy  prices  can  soar  from  $50/Mw  hour  to  $10,000/  Mw  hour
  69. 69. Germany  Power  Surplus ! • In  June  2013   • Electricity  prices  became  nega:ve     • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!
  70. 70. •Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids •500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project ! ! ! ! •China planning to power Moscow
  71. 71. Enough salt caverns planned to power Germany for a week Power  Storage    
  72. 72. —30 million acres lost ! —EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food 25% of 2010 US grain à fuel
 30% US grain burnt in cars
  73. 73. do things you believe in sell things you believe in
  74. 74. Beyond Compliance ! Perfect compliance will keep bankers out of prison but cannot protect brand, because public expectations change rapidly - with severe judgment on those who justify past “unethical” behaviour on grounds that it was 100% compliant.
  75. 75. Truth about Retail Funds —Next miss-selling scandal? —Most actively managed funds fail to beat tracker funds, when all charges deducted —Most fund managers I have surveyed (total > $1 trillion under management) are reluctant to invest own money in own retail funds unless they are required to, and reluctant to recommend own funds to family / friends —“50% of us sell funds of funds but only 5% of us invest in them” —Ethical questions since whole purpose of active management is to protect wealth, not erode it (as is most likely outcome under current business models)
  76. 76. All sales based on a promise Purpose of business is to deliver on the promise Profit is your reward for doing so Purpose of Business
  77. 77. Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profit   Founda:ons   ! Connect  with  all  the  passions   people  have  and  they  will  follow   you  to  the  ends  of  the  earth,   promote  what  you  do  with  pride,   and  may  even  be  willing  to  work  for   you  for  next  to  nothing  
  78. 78. EU20,000  Challenge   “4  word  phrase  is  basis     of  all  marke:ng,   mo:va:on,  change   management   and  leadership”
  79. 79. Build a Better World !individual family community world
  80. 80. RESOURCES ! >500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon ! ! Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com !
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