0
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd	



Future of Supply Chain
Management and Logistics
!
!
Complexity and
scale create risks
!
Strategies often
overtaken by
events
!
World can change faster
than you can hold a
board meeting
Every	
  sudden	
  event	
  is	
  opportunity	
  and	
  challenge
85,000 combinations of door
parts alone on a single model
!
Agility also
requires
Simplicity
Mexico	
  Retail	
  Growth	
  
Manufacturing	
  in	
  Mexico	
  will	
  
grow	
  for	
  US	
  market	
  
Nearshoring	
  Boom
 11%	
  wage	
  inflaAon	
  in	
  China	
  
in	
  2013	
  -­‐	
  expect	
  similar	
  in	
  2014	
  
Bank	
  of	
  America
 Impact	
  of	
  stronger	
  Chinese	
  currency	
  	
  
and	
  tougher	
  polluAon	
  controls
$3.4	
  trillion	
  
!
$2	
  	
  trillion
WGP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  (%,constant	
  prices)
Diversity	
  to	
  seize	
  
global	
  markets
US	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
EU	
  GDP	
  1980-­‐2013	
  	
  
(%,constant	
  prices)	
  
Vietnam	
  GDP	
  1985-­‐2011	
  
>40% WDP by 2015
— IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
300 million move to cities in China and!
475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Growth of Middle Class in Africa
250m people - $2 trillion by 2040
!
!
Middle	
  Class	
  
!
LaAn	
  America	
  -­‐	
  50	
  million	
  more	
  people	
  in	
  last	
  10	
  years	
  
!
Mexic...
• Soriana, Cencosud, Casino (CBD, Exito), Carrefour and Wal-Mart
The future is about
EMOTION
!
Gold standard:

10am orders for 3pm Delivery

Anywhere in same country
10am	
  orders	
  for	
  3pm	
  
Delivery
70m	
  people	
  online	
  in	
  Mexico	
  (58%)	
  
88m	
  in	
  Brazil	
  (46%)	
  
28m	
  in	
  ArgenAna	
  (67%)	
  
1...
Most	
  people	
  in	
  LaAn	
  America	
  are	
  not	
  BUYING	
  online	
  yet,	
  BUT....	
  
Global	
  e-­‐commerce	
 ...
!
Online Sales per user
!
Latin America: $578
Mexico: $854
Brazil: $717
Argentina $380
!
!
Pay-Pal survey
52%	
  of	
  onl...
Mobile6m	
  new	
  mobile	
  users	
  in	
  Mexico	
  in	
  2014	
  
28%	
  populaAon	
  -­‐	
  highest	
  in	
  LaAn	
  A...
Mobile RetailMobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013
50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
Online / physical
worlds become one in
Brazil
!
50% research online - buy in store
40% research in store - buy online
89% ...
Over 4000 road hauliers in
EU
1.3bn	
  home	
  delivered	
  e-­‐com	
  
items	
  in	
  UK	
  a	
  year	
  (+12%	
  pa)
53
3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months
Chosen by up to 50% customers for
deliveries
Internet
of Things
90% all global data
generated in
last 2 years
!
Sales of canned food
in Mexico store =
demand for more
steel tins in China...
Global	
  Warming	
  -­‐	
  factsDoing	
  More	
  with	
  Less
150kms by road can cost more than 10,000kms by sea
59
Rail up to 10 times energy
efficient than road
$226bn on Mexico rail,
road, ports since 2006
SUPER HUBS
>30%	
  energy	
  savings	
  with	
  green	
  tech
63
Tyres	
  –	
  4.3%	
  	
  	
  	
  Streamlining	
  –	
  12%	
  	
  	
  1.5	
  metres	
  longer	
  –	
  5%	
  
Hybrid	
  ...
30% EU trucks run empty
“We	
  waste	
  	
  
25	
  million	
  
	
  miles	
  a	
  year	
  	
  
driving	
  empty	
  
trucks”...
!
Future Supply Chains in Mexico
!
Uncertainty and complexity will
mean shorter supply chains
China / Asia costs will rise...
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd	

Future of Supply Chain
Management and Logistics
!
!
Slides and Videos
global...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futuris...
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Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futurist Speaker - keynote by Patrick Dixon

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Future of logistics and supply chain management in Mexico, Latin America, global trends. Future of manufacturing, wholesale, retail trends. Distribution and disruptions in supply chain, managing supply chain risks. Onshoring, offshoring, outsourcing. Future of manufacturing in Mexico and China. Future global economic outlook, GDP growth in Mexico, US, European Union, China and Vietnam. Future of road haulage and trucking, tranportation by rail, air and sea. Future of container ports, shipping and transport hubs. Future of freight management, couriers, Fedex, DHL, packaging. Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon giving keynote to Logistic Summit and Expo 2014 in Mexico. L exposicion mas importante de logistica en Mexico. Enfassis.

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Transcript of "Future Logistics, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Retail, e-Commerce, offshoring, inshoring, outsourcing - Futurist Speaker - keynote by Patrick Dixon"

  1. 1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 Future of Supply Chain Management and Logistics ! !
  2. 2. Complexity and scale create risks
  3. 3. ! Strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  4. 4. Every  sudden  event  is  opportunity  and  challenge
  5. 5. 85,000 combinations of door parts alone on a single model
  6. 6. ! Agility also requires Simplicity
  7. 7. Mexico  Retail  Growth  
  8. 8. Manufacturing  in  Mexico  will   grow  for  US  market  
  9. 9. Nearshoring  Boom
  10. 10.  11%  wage  inflaAon  in  China   in  2013  -­‐  expect  similar  in  2014   Bank  of  America
  11. 11.  Impact  of  stronger  Chinese  currency     and  tougher  polluAon  controls
  12. 12. $3.4  trillion   ! $2    trillion
  13. 13. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices) Diversity  to  seize   global  markets
  14. 14. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  15. 15. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  16. 16. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  17. 17. >40% WDP by 2015 — IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
  18. 18. 300 million move to cities in China and! 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  19. 19. Growth of Middle Class in Africa 250m people - $2 trillion by 2040 !
  20. 20. ! Middle  Class   ! LaAn  America  -­‐  50  million  more  people  in  last  10  years   ! Mexico:      44  million  -­‐  39%  populaAon   ! Brazil:    113  million  -­‐  56%  populaAon   ! !  
  21. 21. • Soriana, Cencosud, Casino (CBD, Exito), Carrefour and Wal-Mart
  22. 22. The future is about EMOTION
  23. 23. !
  24. 24. Gold standard:
 10am orders for 3pm Delivery
 Anywhere in same country 10am  orders  for  3pm   Delivery
  25. 25. 70m  people  online  in  Mexico  (58%)   88m  in  Brazil  (46%)   28m  in  ArgenAna  (67%)   10m  in  Chile  (59%)   10m  in  Peru  (34%)  
  26. 26. Most  people  in  LaAn  America  are  not  BUYING  online  yet,  BUT....   Global  e-­‐commerce  $1.5  trillion  in  2014      -­‐    $100bn  in  LaAn  America     $6.2bn  in  Mexico  led  by  tradiAonal  retailers  -­‐  40%  growth  in  2012   12%  of  all  retail  is  online  in  UK
  27. 27. ! Online Sales per user ! Latin America: $578 Mexico: $854 Brazil: $717 Argentina $380 ! ! Pay-Pal survey 52%  of  online  users  in     Mexico  have  bought  with  Pay-­‐Pal  
  28. 28. Mobile6m  new  mobile  users  in  Mexico  in  2014   28%  populaAon  -­‐  highest  in  LaAn  America   30m  smartphones  -­‐  up  49%  last  year   60%  of  25-­‐34  year  olds  using  smartphones  
  29. 29. Mobile RetailMobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
  30. 30. Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil ! 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store ! Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
  31. 31. Over 4000 road hauliers in EU 1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com   items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)
  32. 32. 53 3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries
  33. 33. Internet of Things
  34. 34. 90% all global data generated in last 2 years ! Sales of canned food in Mexico store = demand for more steel tins in China Big Data
  35. 35. Global  Warming  -­‐  factsDoing  More  with  Less
  36. 36. 150kms by road can cost more than 10,000kms by sea
  37. 37. 59
  38. 38. Rail up to 10 times energy efficient than road
  39. 39. $226bn on Mexico rail, road, ports since 2006 SUPER HUBS
  40. 40. >30%  energy  savings  with  green  tech
  41. 41. 63 Tyres  –  4.3%        Streamlining  –  12%      1.5  metres  longer  –  5%   Hybrid  engine  –  30%      Heat  power  air  con  ec  –  5%   Shocks    power  –  4%          Slow  from  65  to  55mph    -­‐  20%   SAVE  ENERGY  ON  EVERY  TRUCK   !
  42. 42. 30% EU trucks run empty “We  waste     25  million    miles  a  year     driving  empty   trucks”     ! US  major  retailer  
  43. 43. ! Future Supply Chains in Mexico ! Uncertainty and complexity will mean shorter supply chains China / Asia costs will rise fast Huge benefit for Mexico supplying US Future of retail will change in Mexico E-commerce will impact supply chains Internet of Things and Big Data Huge opportunities to save energy / cost !
  44. 44. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Future of Supply Chain Management and Logistics ! ! Slides and Videos globalchange.com
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