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How Convergence will Change Our World     Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of    15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most  influential ...
Wild CardsLow probability, high impact events
10% Cleveland homes repossessed1 in 146 homes new action in Nevada744,000 homeless in July 2008 – Las Vegas Bus Tour
Korea government action
Recovery also after 2008-9 Crisis
1 billion children  in Africa and  Asia became       adults
China – 300m cities by 2020Growth of meat-eating middle class
Commodities demand will return
Operators making own handsets• Vodafone
Nokia  Ovi• Music + e-mail + navigation  services
Future will be shaped by      emotion
Nintendo Wii•   Games•   Web browsing•   Social networking•   Video streaming
Blackberry phone  services
Messaging Convergence•   SMS•   E-mail•   Twitter•   Communities•   Voice mail•   Skype•   Landline•   Mobile
Communication Convergence• Broadband internet, television, telephone,  and mobile phone
Impact of Video on Demand
2 hour video = 200,000 text e-mails1 gig / hour per person
Olympics Opening (US views)• 2008 – 8m  20m 2012
Total global bandwidth• 250 tbps in 2016 (250m video plays)• Energy: 1.3 trillion KwHs 2010
Future Demand for Satellites
O3B            Other 3 billion• Cheap, low latency (160 msecs v  700)• 8000km height – 5 hour orbit• Satellite  phone com...
Mobile phone becomes bank card• All retail cards  mobile• Ticketing  mobile
Vodafone Amex Nokia Google
UK Card market in 2010•   Transactions $1 trillion pa•   Credit card debt $85bn•   Average card interest rate 18%•   2% co...
Monthly Bill v Fees(replace cards with mobile device) 2010                      2013
Monthly Bill v Fees(replace cards with mobile device) 2010                      2013      2015
Monthly Bill v Fees(replace cards with mobile device)Free devices / web / video 2010                      2013      2015
ConvergenceMore features, identical productsand services, economy of scale,        DivergenceDoing things different to ser...
Handies got larger - again
MOST peoplein 2015 will stilluse most multi-     functiondevices mainly for one or two      things
Intel Surfboard with laptop
Still convergence chaos at home
“Robot Fatique”Client (still) wants a human
RFID Innovation Impact   Radio Frequency Identification Devices• 1 trillion  online  addresses  by 2016
Instant information  peace of mind    online tracking, accurate, detailed• Stress from untraceable shipment of books  – U...
Read Human Genome in an Hour•   Fluidics•   Biochemistry•   Genetics•   Mathematics•   Immunology•   Robotics
Negligible senescence is a reality• Rockfish,  Turtles,  some  Whales• No signs of  getting old
Making  it work
Global Warming - facts
Wind Power in      US• Potential sales  small turbines  > 100,000 a  year• Marketing  budget
Costs will fall fast towards 10c /               KwH
Heat Pumps•   70% new buildings in Sweden•   45% new buildings in New Zealand•   Up to 50% energy savings•   Payback 15 ye...
ElectricCars
Why Biofuels Are No Answer
18% of 2008 US grain  fuel• 20  million  acres  lost
33 nations threatened with instability – World bank
Nuclear energy• Expect rapid growth of new reactors• Wild card will be dirty terror bomb or a meltdown
Large atoms splitSmall atoms fuse
Fusion Power from Seawater and Lithium• First reactor 2031• Power plant 2048• US, EU, Japan, China,  Russia, S Korea• $5.5...
Government Actions• Subsidies• Regulations• Will impact global energy markets for 50 years• Expect irrational and chaotic ...
Carbon Neutral  100% by 2012• Offset energy in  manufacturing• Offset lifetime  power• Eco-Partners
Summary• Industries converge  – Retailers and banking  – Phones and banking  – Entertainment and communications  – Manufac...
Future Success•   Collaboration•   Partnership•   Multi-disciplinary teams•   Radical thinking•   Dynamic leadership•   Bi...
Slogan for 2020• For individuals• For family• For community• For whole earth
Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of    15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most  influential ...
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker
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Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker

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http://www.globalchange.com - Divergence or convergence? Better and different -- convergence and divergence Consumer focus, IT systems,nanotech, biotech, software and mobile phones. Multiple devices and systems. Multiple capabilities and features. Innovation, divergence, new products and services. Customer choices and consumer satisfaction. How multiple features can win market share but also confuse customers. Innovation is about being different. Convergence in broadcasting, entertainment platforms, multimedia devices, mobile wireless organisers, and in business communication tools. Why convergence and divergence happen at same time. Future of convergence in product design. Limits to convergence in retail sector

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Transcript of "Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker"

  1. 1. How Convergence will Change Our World Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
  2. 2. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - For South Korea government (2008) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.
  3. 3. Wild CardsLow probability, high impact events
  4. 4. 10% Cleveland homes repossessed1 in 146 homes new action in Nevada744,000 homeless in July 2008 – Las Vegas Bus Tour
  5. 5. Korea government action
  6. 6. Recovery also after 2008-9 Crisis
  7. 7. 1 billion children in Africa and Asia became adults
  8. 8. China – 300m cities by 2020Growth of meat-eating middle class
  9. 9. Commodities demand will return
  10. 10. Operators making own handsets• Vodafone
  11. 11. Nokia  Ovi• Music + e-mail + navigation services
  12. 12. Future will be shaped by emotion
  13. 13. Nintendo Wii• Games• Web browsing• Social networking• Video streaming
  14. 14. Blackberry phone  services
  15. 15. Messaging Convergence• SMS• E-mail• Twitter• Communities• Voice mail• Skype• Landline• Mobile
  16. 16. Communication Convergence• Broadband internet, television, telephone, and mobile phone
  17. 17. Impact of Video on Demand
  18. 18. 2 hour video = 200,000 text e-mails1 gig / hour per person
  19. 19. Olympics Opening (US views)• 2008 – 8m  20m 2012
  20. 20. Total global bandwidth• 250 tbps in 2016 (250m video plays)• Energy: 1.3 trillion KwHs 2010
  21. 21. Future Demand for Satellites
  22. 22. O3B Other 3 billion• Cheap, low latency (160 msecs v 700)• 8000km height – 5 hour orbit• Satellite  phone company• Ka-band: 16 satellites over Africa
  23. 23. Mobile phone becomes bank card• All retail cards  mobile• Ticketing  mobile
  24. 24. Vodafone Amex Nokia Google
  25. 25. UK Card market in 2010• Transactions $1 trillion pa• Credit card debt $85bn• Average card interest rate 18%• 2% commissions worth £20bn
  26. 26. Monthly Bill v Fees(replace cards with mobile device) 2010 2013
  27. 27. Monthly Bill v Fees(replace cards with mobile device) 2010 2013 2015
  28. 28. Monthly Bill v Fees(replace cards with mobile device)Free devices / web / video 2010 2013 2015
  29. 29. ConvergenceMore features, identical productsand services, economy of scale, DivergenceDoing things different to serveconsumers better - INNOVATION
  30. 30. Handies got larger - again
  31. 31. MOST peoplein 2015 will stilluse most multi- functiondevices mainly for one or two things
  32. 32. Intel Surfboard with laptop
  33. 33. Still convergence chaos at home
  34. 34. “Robot Fatique”Client (still) wants a human
  35. 35. RFID Innovation Impact Radio Frequency Identification Devices• 1 trillion online addresses by 2016
  36. 36. Instant information  peace of mind online tracking, accurate, detailed• Stress from untraceable shipment of books – Unknown shipment reference number
  37. 37. Read Human Genome in an Hour• Fluidics• Biochemistry• Genetics• Mathematics• Immunology• Robotics
  38. 38. Negligible senescence is a reality• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales• No signs of getting old
  39. 39. Making it work
  40. 40. Global Warming - facts
  41. 41. Wind Power in US• Potential sales small turbines > 100,000 a year• Marketing budget
  42. 42. Costs will fall fast towards 10c / KwH
  43. 43. Heat Pumps• 70% new buildings in Sweden• 45% new buildings in New Zealand• Up to 50% energy savings• Payback 15 years
  44. 44. ElectricCars
  45. 45. Why Biofuels Are No Answer
  46. 46. 18% of 2008 US grain  fuel• 20 million acres lost
  47. 47. 33 nations threatened with instability – World bank
  48. 48. Nuclear energy• Expect rapid growth of new reactors• Wild card will be dirty terror bomb or a meltdown
  49. 49. Large atoms splitSmall atoms fuse
  50. 50. Fusion Power from Seawater and Lithium• First reactor 2031• Power plant 2048• US, EU, Japan, China, Russia, S Korea• $5.5bn for prototype in France
  51. 51. Government Actions• Subsidies• Regulations• Will impact global energy markets for 50 years• Expect irrational and chaotic policy shifts
  52. 52. Carbon Neutral  100% by 2012• Offset energy in manufacturing• Offset lifetime power• Eco-Partners
  53. 53. Summary• Industries converge – Retailers and banking – Phones and banking – Entertainment and communications – Manufacturing and farming• Technologies converge – Nanotech and biotech – Genetics and robotics – Biodigital devices
  54. 54. Future Success• Collaboration• Partnership• Multi-disciplinary teams• Radical thinking• Dynamic leadership• Big vision• Customer focus
  55. 55. Slogan for 2020• For individuals• For family• For community• For whole earth
  56. 56. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - For South Korea government (2008) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.

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