Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - Conference keynote speaker

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http://www.globalchange.com - Divergence or convergence? Better and different -- convergence and divergence Consumer focus, IT systems,nanotech, biotech, software and mobile phones. Multiple devices …

http://www.globalchange.com - Divergence or convergence? Better and different -- convergence and divergence Consumer focus, IT systems,nanotech, biotech, software and mobile phones. Multiple devices and systems. Multiple capabilities and features. Innovation, divergence, new products and services. Customer choices and consumer satisfaction. How multiple features can win market share but also confuse customers. Innovation is about being different. Convergence in broadcasting, entertainment platforms, multimedia devices, mobile wireless organisers, and in business communication tools. Why convergence and divergence happen at same time. Future of convergence in product design. Limits to convergence in retail sector

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  • 1. How Convergence will Change Our World Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
  • 2. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - For South Korea government (2008) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.
  • 3. Wild CardsLow probability, high impact events
  • 4. 10% Cleveland homes repossessed1 in 146 homes new action in Nevada744,000 homeless in July 2008 – Las Vegas Bus Tour
  • 5. Korea government action
  • 6. Recovery also after 2008-9 Crisis
  • 7. 1 billion children in Africa and Asia became adults
  • 8. China – 300m cities by 2020Growth of meat-eating middle class
  • 9. Commodities demand will return
  • 10. Operators making own handsets• Vodafone
  • 11. Nokia  Ovi• Music + e-mail + navigation services
  • 12. Future will be shaped by emotion
  • 13. Nintendo Wii• Games• Web browsing• Social networking• Video streaming
  • 14. Blackberry phone  services
  • 15. Messaging Convergence• SMS• E-mail• Twitter• Communities• Voice mail• Skype• Landline• Mobile
  • 16. Communication Convergence• Broadband internet, television, telephone, and mobile phone
  • 17. Impact of Video on Demand
  • 18. 2 hour video = 200,000 text e-mails1 gig / hour per person
  • 19. Olympics Opening (US views)• 2008 – 8m  20m 2012
  • 20. Total global bandwidth• 250 tbps in 2016 (250m video plays)• Energy: 1.3 trillion KwHs 2010
  • 21. Future Demand for Satellites
  • 22. O3B Other 3 billion• Cheap, low latency (160 msecs v 700)• 8000km height – 5 hour orbit• Satellite  phone company• Ka-band: 16 satellites over Africa
  • 23. Mobile phone becomes bank card• All retail cards  mobile• Ticketing  mobile
  • 24. Vodafone Amex Nokia Google
  • 25. UK Card market in 2010• Transactions $1 trillion pa• Credit card debt $85bn• Average card interest rate 18%• 2% commissions worth £20bn
  • 26. Monthly Bill v Fees(replace cards with mobile device) 2010 2013
  • 27. Monthly Bill v Fees(replace cards with mobile device) 2010 2013 2015
  • 28. Monthly Bill v Fees(replace cards with mobile device)Free devices / web / video 2010 2013 2015
  • 29. ConvergenceMore features, identical productsand services, economy of scale, DivergenceDoing things different to serveconsumers better - INNOVATION
  • 30. Handies got larger - again
  • 31. MOST peoplein 2015 will stilluse most multi- functiondevices mainly for one or two things
  • 32. Intel Surfboard with laptop
  • 33. Still convergence chaos at home
  • 34. “Robot Fatique”Client (still) wants a human
  • 35. RFID Innovation Impact Radio Frequency Identification Devices• 1 trillion online addresses by 2016
  • 36. Instant information  peace of mind online tracking, accurate, detailed• Stress from untraceable shipment of books – Unknown shipment reference number
  • 37. Read Human Genome in an Hour• Fluidics• Biochemistry• Genetics• Mathematics• Immunology• Robotics
  • 38. Negligible senescence is a reality• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales• No signs of getting old
  • 39. Making it work
  • 40. Global Warming - facts
  • 41. Wind Power in US• Potential sales small turbines > 100,000 a year• Marketing budget
  • 42. Costs will fall fast towards 10c / KwH
  • 43. Heat Pumps• 70% new buildings in Sweden• 45% new buildings in New Zealand• Up to 50% energy savings• Payback 15 years
  • 44. ElectricCars
  • 45. Why Biofuels Are No Answer
  • 46. 18% of 2008 US grain  fuel• 20 million acres lost
  • 47. 33 nations threatened with instability – World bank
  • 48. Nuclear energy• Expect rapid growth of new reactors• Wild card will be dirty terror bomb or a meltdown
  • 49. Large atoms splitSmall atoms fuse
  • 50. Fusion Power from Seawater and Lithium• First reactor 2031• Power plant 2048• US, EU, Japan, China, Russia, S Korea• $5.5bn for prototype in France
  • 51. Government Actions• Subsidies• Regulations• Will impact global energy markets for 50 years• Expect irrational and chaotic policy shifts
  • 52. Carbon Neutral  100% by 2012• Offset energy in manufacturing• Offset lifetime power• Eco-Partners
  • 53. Summary• Industries converge – Retailers and banking – Phones and banking – Entertainment and communications – Manufacturing and farming• Technologies converge – Nanotech and biotech – Genetics and robotics – Biodigital devices
  • 54. Future Success• Collaboration• Partnership• Multi-disciplinary teams• Radical thinking• Dynamic leadership• Big vision• Customer focus
  • 55. Slogan for 2020• For individuals• For family• For community• For whole earth
  • 56. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)Convergent technologies - Future of nanotech, biotech and digital innovation - For South Korea government (2008) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.