BRAZIL'S REDUX:The Long-Awaited Emergence22 July 2010Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade<br />Patrick Carvalho<br />MA...
Sections<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Aff...
Sections<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Aff...
Basic Facts<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign ...
Basic Facts<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign ...
Racial Composition: 48.4% White / 50.6 % Black&Mulatto / 0.9% Others
Age Demographics: 25.7% Children / 64.3% Adults / 10.0% Elderly (over 60 years)
Life Expectancy: 72.7 years
Population Growth Rate: 0.98% per year
Human Development Index: 0.813
GINI Coefficient: 0.552</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 201...
BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade...
BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade...
BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade...
Sections<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Aff...
The Change of Paradigm<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department ...
Flexible Exchange Rate (1999)
Fiscal Responsibility Act (2000)</li></ul>The China Effect<br />
The Change of Paradigm<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department ...
BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade...
The Change of Paradigm<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department ...
BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade...
Tamed prices through inflation targeting</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                     ...
Lower interest rates & expansion of credit</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                   ...
Current Account under control
Composition of Curr.Acc.: </li></ul>-Higher trade balances<br />-Lower debt services<br />-Higher profit & dividends  remi...
BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade...
Current FDI inflows rely on market stability and growth</li></ul>Source: The Economist, Nov 12, 2009<br />
BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade...
Net External Creditor since 2007</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22...
Nominal Fiscal Surplus expected from 2013 onwards
Fiscal adjustment came mainly through an increase in taxation</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence...
Currency appreciation + domestic boom + fiscal adjustment led to a Net External Creditor position since 2007</li></li></ul...
Highest level of purchasing power since 1979</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                 ...
BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade...
Irresponsible expansion of credit-Housing bubble-High leverage of financial and banking system
 Strong economic fundamentals reduced the impact of the World Crisis</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Em...
Although the rapid credit expansion over the previous years…</li></ul>…the credit ratio is still modest for international ...
BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade...
Brazil presents one of the lowest percentage shares of household income committed to mortgage and private debt
Historically high levels of Interest Rate + economic instability prevented the accumulation of mortgages</li></li></ul><li...
Healthy banking system with high relation between capital and risk weighted assets
Balanced mix of credit portfolio among State, Domestic Private and Foreign Lenders.</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The ...
Resulting in faster recovery of the market values of Brazilian banks
Three Brazilian banks      (2 Privates, 1 Public) are ranked among the largest in the world</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S RED...
Brazil at the onset of the current World Crisis: better prepared than in the past…</li></ul>…less turbulence in the presen...
BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence                           22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade...
Recovery of exports relies on the demand of foreign countries and on the international price of commodities</li></ul>Expor...
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Brazil Redux

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  • 12 milhoes de familias sob Bolsa Familia
  • Brazil Redux

    1. 1. BRAZIL'S REDUX:The Long-Awaited Emergence22 July 2010Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade<br />Patrick Carvalho<br />MA International Relations – University of Wollongong<br />MSc Economics – Getulio Vargas Foundation<br />PhD Candidate in Economics – ANU<br />Brazilian Licensed Lawyer<br />Former Head of Economic Studies Division at the <br />Federation of Industries of Rio de Janeiro<br />
    2. 2. Sections<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Basic Facts<br />The Change of Paradigm<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br />Back to the Future<br />Political Scenario: The 2010 Presidential Election<br />Appendix: Brazilian Macroeconomic Time-series<br />
    3. 3. Sections<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Basic Facts<br />The Change of Paradigm<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br />Back to the Future<br />Political Scenario: The 2010 Presidential Election<br />Appendix: Brazilian Macroeconomic Time-series<br />
    4. 4. Basic Facts<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Federative Republic of Brazil<br />Extension Area: 8.5 Mil. km2<br />Urban Rate: 86.1%<br />Bicameral Presidential System<br />Federation of 26 States <br />(5,564 Municipalities over 5 regions)<br />Official Language: Portuguese<br />Magna Carta: Constitution of 1988<br />Currency: REAL (R$)<br />GDP: US$ 1.6 Tril.<br />Population: 194 Mil.<br />GDP per capita: US$ 8,108<br />
    5. 5. Basic Facts<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Population:<br /><ul><li>Gender Distribution: 48.7% Men / 51.3% Women
    6. 6. Racial Composition: 48.4% White / 50.6 % Black&Mulatto / 0.9% Others
    7. 7. Age Demographics: 25.7% Children / 64.3% Adults / 10.0% Elderly (over 60 years)
    8. 8. Life Expectancy: 72.7 years
    9. 9. Population Growth Rate: 0.98% per year
    10. 10. Human Development Index: 0.813
    11. 11. GINI Coefficient: 0.552</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Basic Facts<br />Composition of the Gross Domestic Product<br />Demand Side of GDP<br />Supply Side of GDP<br />Source: IBGE – GDP in 2009<br />
    12. 12. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Basic Facts<br />Position of Selected Goods in World Production & Trade<br />
    13. 13. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Basic Facts<br />Main Exports & Destinations in 2009(share over aggregate exports)<br />
    14. 14. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Basic Facts<br />Energy Supply Matrix<br />Source: Ministry of Energy of Brazil<br />
    15. 15. Sections<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Basic Facts<br />The Change of Paradigm<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br />Back to the Future<br />Political Scenario: The 2010 Presidential Election<br />Appendix: Brazilian Macroeconomic Time-series<br />
    16. 16. The Change of Paradigm<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Prelude: The Real Plan (1994)<br />The Macroeconomic Stability Tripod:<br /><ul><li>Inflation Targeting (1999)
    17. 17. Flexible Exchange Rate (1999)
    18. 18. Fiscal Responsibility Act (2000)</li></ul>The China Effect<br />
    19. 19. The Change of Paradigm<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The China Effect<br />Source: Economist Inteligence Unit<br />
    20. 20. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Change of Paradigm<br />Old Dynamics:<br />External Crisis -> Devaluation -> (Dollarized) Debt Explosion & Inflation -> Fiscal & Monetary Contraction -> RECESSION (The Hen's Flight Business Cycle)<br />Current Dynamics:<br />External Crisis -> Devaluation -> Net External Debt Creditor & Anchored Inflation Expectations -> Fiscal & Monetary Expansion -> Short Slowdown <br />
    21. 21. The Change of Paradigm<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Business Cycles in Brazil<br />
    22. 22. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Change of Paradigm<br /><ul><li>Steady currency appreciation since 2003
    23. 23. Tamed prices through inflation targeting</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Source: The Economist, Nov 12, 2009<br />The Change of Paradigm<br /><ul><li>Better performance of monetary stimulus
    24. 24. Lower interest rates & expansion of credit</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Change of Paradigm<br /><ul><li>The China Effect on Brazil`s terms of trade boosted exports, mitigating external vulnerability
    25. 25. Current Account under control
    26. 26. Composition of Curr.Acc.: </li></ul>-Higher trade balances<br />-Lower debt services<br />-Higher profit & dividends remittances<br />
    27. 27. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Change of Paradigm<br /><ul><li>First boom of FDI led by privatisations
    28. 28. Current FDI inflows rely on market stability and growth</li></ul>Source: The Economist, Nov 12, 2009<br />
    29. 29. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Change of Paradigm<br /><ul><li>FDI + Export boost fueled the accumulation of extensive International Reserves, eliminating external vulnerability
    30. 30. Net External Creditor since 2007</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Change of Paradigm<br /><ul><li>Primary Fiscal Surplus (ex-debt interest services) since 2000
    31. 31. Nominal Fiscal Surplus expected from 2013 onwards
    32. 32. Fiscal adjustment came mainly through an increase in taxation</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Change of Paradigm<br /><ul><li>As a result, Brazil significantly reduced its Public Debt since 2002
    33. 33. Currency appreciation + domestic boom + fiscal adjustment led to a Net External Creditor position since 2007</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Change of Paradigm<br /><ul><li>The improvement of macroeconomic fundamentals opened road to a higher average growth rate, with emphasis in investments</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Change of Paradigm<br /><ul><li>New job market dynamics
    34. 34. Highest level of purchasing power since 1979</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Source: The Economist, Nov 12, 2009<br />The Change of Paradigm<br /><ul><li>GDP growth followed by strong job creation & higher purchasing power reduces class inequality and enhances mass consumer market</li></li></ul><li>Sections<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Basic Facts<br />The Change of Paradigm<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br />Back to the Future<br />Political Scenario: The 2010 Presidential Election<br />Appendix: Brazilian Macroeconomic Time-series<br />
    35. 35. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br /><ul><li> The elements of the World Financial Crisis were not present in the Brazilian economy
    36. 36. Irresponsible expansion of credit-Housing bubble-High leverage of financial and banking system
    37. 37. Strong economic fundamentals reduced the impact of the World Crisis</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br /><ul><li> The elements of the World Financial Crisis were not present in the Brazilian economy
    38. 38. Although the rapid credit expansion over the previous years…</li></ul>…the credit ratio is still modest for international standards<br />
    39. 39. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br /><ul><li> The elements of the World Financial Crisis were not present in the Brazilian economy
    40. 40. Brazil presents one of the lowest percentage shares of household income committed to mortgage and private debt
    41. 41. Historically high levels of Interest Rate + economic instability prevented the accumulation of mortgages</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br /><ul><li> The elements of the World Financial Crisis were not present in the Brazilian economy
    42. 42. Healthy banking system with high relation between capital and risk weighted assets
    43. 43. Balanced mix of credit portfolio among State, Domestic Private and Foreign Lenders.</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br /><ul><li> The elements of the World Financial Crisis were not present in the Brazilian economy
    44. 44. Resulting in faster recovery of the market values of Brazilian banks
    45. 45. Three Brazilian banks (2 Privates, 1 Public) are ranked among the largest in the world</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br /><ul><li> Strong economic fundamentals reduced the impact of the World Crisis
    46. 46. Brazil at the onset of the current World Crisis: better prepared than in the past…</li></ul>…less turbulence in the present<br />
    47. 47. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br /><ul><li> Strong economic fundamentals reduced the impact of the World Crisis
    48. 48. Recovery of exports relies on the demand of foreign countries and on the international price of commodities</li></ul>Exports & Imports12 Month-moving average (US$ Bil.)<br />Exports<br />Imports<br />Source: FUNCEX<br />
    49. 49. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br /><ul><li> Strong economic fundamentals reduced the impact of the World Crisis
    50. 50. After strong adjustment, Industrial Output recovers to pre-crisis level</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br /><ul><li> Strong economic fundamentals reduced the impact of the World Crisis
    51. 51. Expansion of credit, jobs and wages pick up the retail trade market, after a slowdown period</li></li></ul><li>BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />IBOVESPA in points<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br /><ul><li> Strong economic fundamentals reduced the impact of the World Crisis
    52. 52. International confidence in the Brazilian economy boosts the Domestic Stock Market</li></li></ul><li>Sections<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Basic Facts<br />The Change of Paradigm<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br />Back to the Future<br />Political Scenario: The 2010 Presidential Election<br />Appendix: Brazilian Macroeconomic Time-series<br />
    53. 53. Back to the Future<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Sound Macroeconomic Fundamentals<br /><ul><li>Low Inflation
    54. 54. Unprecedented low level of Interest Rates
    55. 55. Rising Mass Consumption Class based on low unemployment rate and higher salaries
    56. 56. Better Terms of Trade
    57. 57. Strong and flexible currency
    58. 58. Positive fiscal budgets
    59. 59. Net External Creditor with robust International Reserves
    60. 60. Big recipient of FDI
    61. 61. Solvent and transparent financial and banking system
    62. 62. Investment Grade and lower country-risk premiums</li></ul>Young and large Population<br />Stable and nonviolent Democracy<br />Big Natural Reserves (including water basins)<br />Pre-salt Oil & Gas Reserves<br />Potential to consolidate as the main food supplier to the world (increasing productivity, large unexploited/cheap lands and Doha Round)<br />2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics<br />High housing deficit<br />Increasing levels of investments at macro and micro level<br />
    63. 63. Back to the Future<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br /><ul><li>According to the Brazilian Development Bank, the total amount of major investments announced for 2010-2013 is US$ 700 Bil.</li></li></ul><li>Back to the Future<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br /><ul><li>The Country Housing Deficit is estimated at 8 million units</li></li></ul><li>Back to the Future<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Challenges<br />Oversized and convoluted tax system<br />Distorted labour market<br />Poor educational system<br />Slow judicial system and bureaucracy<br />Weak infrastructure<br />Environmental issues<br />
    64. 64. Sections<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Basic Facts<br />The Change of Paradigm<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br />Back to the Future<br />Political Scenario: The 2010 Presidential Election<br />Appendix: Brazilian Macroeconomic Time-series<br />
    65. 65. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Political Scenario: The 2010 Presidential Election<br />President is elected directly to a four-year term, with a limit of two terms. Lula is not eligible, since he was elected in 2002 and re-elected in 2006.<br />Two Ballot Rounds: October 3rd & 31st<br />Two Main Parties: PSDB (Jose Serra) vs PT (Dilma Roussef)<br />All candidates are commited to maintain the macroeconomic stability tripod<br />Source: IBOPE – July 3rd, 2010<br />
    66. 66. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Political Scenario: The 2010 Presidential Election<br />Lula`s appointee (who plans to return in 2014…) <br />PT (Labour Party) since 2001<br />63 years old<br />Former Marxist / Economist<br />Political Prisoner in 1970-1972<br />Minister of Energy, 2003-2005<br />Chief of Staff (highest-ranking member of the Executive Office of Brazil, senior aide to the President) 2005-2010<br />
    67. 67. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Political Scenario: The 2010 Presidential Election<br />President of the National Student Union in1964<br />Exiled from 1964-1978 in Chile, Argentina and US<br />Member of Parliament 1986–1994<br />Elected Senator for Sao Paulo in 1995–2002<br />Minister of Planning 1995–1996<br />Minister of Health 1998–2002 (pioneer of generic drugs policy)<br />Mayor of Sao Paulo City 2005–2006<br />Governor of Sao Paulo State 2007–2010<br />FHC’s political heir<br />Runner-up for Presidential election against Lula in 2002<br />67 years old<br />PhD in Economics at Cornell University<br />Founder of PSDB (Party of Social Democracy of Brazil) in 1988<br />
    68. 68. Sections<br />BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Basic Facts<br />The Change of Paradigm<br />The Grand Test: The Current World Crisis<br />Back to the Future<br />Political Scenario: The 2010 Presidential Election<br />Appendix: Brazilian Macroeconomic Time-series<br />
    69. 69. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Appendix: Brazilian Macroeconomic Time-series<br />Source: Moody’s Statistical Handbook, May/2010<br />
    70. 70. BRAZIL'S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence 22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Patrick Carvalho<br />Appendix: Brazilian Macroeconomic Time-series<br />Source: Moody’s Statistical Handbook, May/2010<br />
    71. 71. BRAZIL’S REDUX: The Long-Awaited Emergence22 July 2010, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade<br />THANK YOU<br />Patrick Carvalho<br />MA International Relations – University of Wollongong<br />MSc Economics – Getulio Vargas Foundation<br />PhD Candidate in Economics – ANU<br />Brazilian Licensed Lawyer<br />Former Head of Economic Studies Division at the <br />Federation of Industries of Rio de Janeiro<br />

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