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Why Won't My Car Start?

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Slides for the session run at Systems Thinking Sheffied 2 in February 2010.

Slides for the session run at Systems Thinking Sheffied 2 in February 2010.


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  • Transcript

    • 1. Systems Thinking Sheffield February 2011Why Won’t My Car Start? Exploring cause-and-effect in systems and organisations Ashley Moran Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales License PatchSpace Ltd
    • 2. A warm-up exercise
    • 3. Task: Using “because”Take and index cardWrite a complete sentence that includesthe word “because” It could be a generic statement Maybe something that happened to you recently
    • 4. Task: Using “because”Form groups of 2 or 3Take each sentence in turn and ask theauthor questions about the reasoningRemember: do ask questions don’t jump to conclusions don’t tell the other person they’re “wrong”
    • 5. Task: Using “because”What did you learn?Were any of the original statementsless watertight that you thought?
    • 6. Task: Using “because”(This task was inspired by one I readabout Goldratt doing at the start of ameeting)
    • 7. Types of logic
    • 8. Sufficiency vs Necessity Necessity logic IN ORDER TO stay alive WE MUST drink water IF WE DO NOT drink water WE CANNOT stay alive What are the assumptions (the tacit “because”)?
    • 9. Sufficiency vs Necessity Sufficiency logic IF I drink water now THEN I will not be thirsty for a while IF I am thirsty THEN I cannot have drunk water recently What are the assumptions (the tacit “because”)?
    • 10. Sufficiency with “ and”
    • 11. Sufficiency with “ and” Read as:
    • 12. Sufficiency with “ and” Read as: IF there is a lightbulb in the circuit
    • 13. Sufficiency with “ and” Read as: IF there is a lightbulb in the circuit AND there is a battery in the circuit
    • 14. Sufficiency with “ and” Read as: IF there is a lightbulb in the circuit AND there is a battery in the circuit AND the circuit is unbroken
    • 15. Sufficiency with “ and” Read as: IF there is a lightbulb in the circuit AND there is a battery in the circuit AND the circuit is unbroken THEN the lightbulb is on
    • 16. Sufficiency with “or”
    • 17. Sufficiency with “or” Read as:
    • 18. Sufficiency with “or” Read as: IF I am standing in the rain
    • 19. Sufficiency with “or” Read as: IF I am standing in the rain AND I have no protection from the elements
    • 20. Sufficiency with “or” Read as: IF I am standing in the rain AND I have no protection from the elements ... OR I fell in a swimming pool
    • 21. Sufficiency with “or” Read as: IF I am standing in the rain AND I have no protection from the elements ... OR I fell in a swimming pool THEN I am wet
    • 22. Expressingreservations about cause-effect logic trees
    • 23. Expressing reservations People are emotionally attached to things they have worked on People can take criticism of their work as a personal affront It’s very important to tackle cause-and- effect logic problems as “you and me versus the tree” not as a matter of personal opinion
    • 24. The Prime Directive"Regardless of what we discover, weunderstand and truly believe thateveryone did the best job they could,given what they knew at the time,their skills and abilities, the resourcesavailable, and the situation at hand." Norm Kerth, Project Retrospectives: A Handbook for Team Reviews Often used by “Agile” soft ware teams
    • 25. Expressing reservations
    • 26. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
    • 27. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Clarity
    • 28. Expressing reservations
    • 29. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
    • 30. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Entity Existence
    • 31. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Entity Existence Incomplete statement
    • 32. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Entity Existence Incomplete statement Compound statement
    • 33. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Entity Existence Incomplete statement Compound statement Non-existent fact
    • 34. Expressing reservations
    • 35. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
    • 36. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Causality Existence
    • 37. Expressing reservations
    • 38. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
    • 39. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Cause Insufficiency
    • 40. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Cause Insufficiency What about day/ night?
    • 41. Expressing reservations
    • 42. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
    • 43. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Additional Cause
    • 44. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Additional Cause What about the windows?
    • 45. Expressing reservations
    • 46. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
    • 47. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Cause- Effect Reversal
    • 48. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Cause- Effect Reversal Watch out! These can be very subtle
    • 49. Expressing reservations
    • 50. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with these statements?
    • 51. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with these statements? Reser vation: Predicted Effect Existence
    • 52. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with these statements? Reser vation: Predicted Effect Existence What else would the proposed causes imply?
    • 53. Expressing reservations
    • 54. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
    • 55. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Tautology
    • 56. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Tautology How do you know the rock is tiger- repellant?
    • 57. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Tautology How do you know the rock is tiger- repellant? Dues owed to Lisa Simpson for this one
    • 58. Categories of reservation Clarity Entity Existence (atomic, valid) Causality Existence (logic doesn’t follow) Cause Insufficiency (something missing) Additional Cause (alternative explanation) Cause-Effect Reversal Predicted Effect Existence Tautology (circular reasoning)
    • 59. Current Reality Trees
    • 60. Current Reality TreesPart of the Theory of Constraints (TOC)body of knowledgeTheory of Constraints enabled people tooptimise a system around a processbottleneck (as in the novel The Goal)Production capability increasedEventually the constraint became notproduction, but (management) policiesand assumptions
    • 61. Current Reality TreesCurrent Reality Trees use cause-effect logic trees to explain the current reality of a system
    • 62. Current Reality TreesIf you have a goal in mind for thesystem, you can identify UndesirableEffects (UDES) with respect to that goalWe’re glossing over the (moreimportant?) stage of defining the goaland its necessary conditions
    • 63. An example CRT
    • 64. An example CRT Note:
    • 65. An example CRT Note: UDEs are determined relative to a goal
    • 66. An example CRT Note: UDEs are determined relative to a goal Is low quality actually undesirable? Says who?
    • 67. An example CRT Note: UDEs are determined relative to a goal Is low quality actually undesirable? Says who? Watch for the feedback loop
    • 68. An interactive exercise Why are the monkeys hungry?
    • 69. WarningThis is a trial run of the sessionYou’re the experiment, not the monkeysHide any bananas you may have on yourperson
    • 70. The situationYou’ve been brought in to manage a roomfull of monkeysYour assume the monkeys want to behappy, and that to be happy they mustbe well fedLet’s look at some facts availableLet’s ask “why?” and “what happensif?” to explore the situation (I know the answers)
    • 71. Drawing a treeThis slide is a placeholder for the timewe spend drawing a Current RealityTree for the “monkey story”
    • 72. RetrospectiveWhat did we learn?
    • 73. Further readingIt’s Not Luck - Eliyahu M GoldrattThe Logical Thinking Process - H WilliamDettmerThinking Processes Including Strategy &Tactics Trees (ebook) - Lisa J ScheinkopfFlying Logic (tree soft ware) - developedby Sciral