Forest fires and climate change gci (ws2011)

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How recent forest fires has been influenced by the changing climate change.

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  • How big is the phenomenon and seasonal variations in the forest fires .South Asia, summer months having more fire incidents in comparison of rainy season months ( july onwards ) Mediteranian .. Spain and Italy ... Dry and hot summer contriburing the fire risk .. African and south amareica continent is as temeperature remains more or less same but the dry seasons are contributing to the forest fires .. circum boreal forest in canada etc . March april may june ( hot months and dry ones )
  • The above is an inaccurate portrayal of the true cause for the2007 California wildfires. However, it is an accurate portrayal of the fallacious picture global warming fearmongering propagandists are trying to paint.California’s wildfires are blamed by some on global warming. Yes, the ‘official’ increase of barely 0.6 degrees is blamed for starting massive fires (actual increase in recorded temperature 0.1 degrees, added-on politicized science amount of 0.5 degrees; see The Sun: Fuzzy Facts on the Climate for more).
  • Climate change canincrease global timber production through location changes of forests and higher growth rates, especially when positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration are taken into consideration (Irlandet al., 2001; Sohngen et al., 2001;Alig et al., 2002; Solberg et al.,2003; Sohngen and Sedjo, 2005)
  • Land cover and vegetation composition is also likely to change in the future with the climate. Which will have a direct impact on the Fuel quality, Ignition source, and fuel moisture which are a major ingredents of fires. Some plant species depend on the effects of fire for growth and reproduction. Stephen J. Pyne et al. How Plants Use Fire (And Are Used By It)  2009
  • Following a stand replacing disturbance, biomass C accumulatesslowly at first then more rapidly before reaching amaximum, after which C accumulation slows (Fig. 1). Thistype of growth dynamics has been observed over a widerange of forest ecosystems (Wardle et al. 2004) and issupported by several C dynamics studies in boreal (e.g.,
  • El Niño and La Niña events in the last century. Sea surface temperatures (SST) are routinely measured by buoys and satellites across the equatorial Pacific in order observe conditions and to try to predict ENSO events. Below is a graph of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the South American coast. Positive numbers mean the water is warmer than usual; negative numbers mean the water is colder than usual. On the figure below circle the El Niño and La Niña events (any anomaly less than or greater than 0.4oC) and put a star next to the events that are especially strong. ENSO and Its Impact on Forest Fires in the SW United States The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) uses local temperature and rainfall information to determine dryness. Numbers are calculated to represent long term (months) drought conditions. Negative numbers are considered drought conditions, positive numbers are considered excessive rainfall conditions, and zero is normal. So a –4 means severe drought, -2 means moderate drought, 2 means moderate rainfall, 4 means heavy rainfall. Below is a graph of PDSI values and hectares burned by forest fire for the SW United States in the last century. What is the correlation between drought and fire occurrence? (Do the peaks on the fire-acerage graph match with the valleys on the PDSI graph?) If so, what does this suggest? The correlation between La Niña events and drought/fire in the SW United States? On the figure for Q. 3 circle the years when there are both drought and widespread fires. Now compare these years to the La Niña years in Q. 2. What is the relationship between La Niña events and fires in the American Southwest.
  • The upward trend has occurred despite an increase in areas under fire suppression and more efficient fire suppression techniques, including the use of water bombersThe black line shows total area burnedanomalies over Canada for each five year period from1920 to 1999 [Van Wagner, 1988], in units of 105 km2. Thered line shows five year mean observed May–Augusttemperature anomalies [Jones and Moberg, 2003] weightedby area burned, in K. The green line shows ensemble-meanfive-year-mean May–August area-burned-weighted temperatureanomalies from integrations of the CGCM2 modelforced with anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulfateaerosol. Gray dashed lines indicate the 5–95% range ofinternal variability in area burned, estimated from interannualvariability. All anomalies are calculated relative tothe 1920–1999 mean
  • Fig. 1. (A) Annual frequencyof large (9400 ha)western U.S. forest wildfires(bars) and meanMarch through Augusttemperature for the westernUnited States (line)(26, 30). Spearman’s rankcorrelation between thetwo series is 0.76 (P G0.001). Wilcoxon test forchange in mean large–forest fire frequency after1987 was significant (W 042; P G 0.001). (B) Firstprinciple component ofcenter timing of streamflowin snowmelt dominatedstreams (line).Low (pink shading), middle(no shading), andhigh (light blue shading)tercile values indicateearly, mid-, and late timingof spring snowmelt,respectively. (C) Annualtime between first and last large-fire ignition, and last large-fire control.
  • The upward trend has occurred despite an increase in areas under fire suppression and more efficient fire suppression techniques, including the use of water bombers
  • Integrated fire research framework. The framework presents relationships between differentcompartments of the human-environment system involved in fire causes and effects. These areorganised into one control loop on fire regimes (FR, red box and arrows) and two feedback loops, thefirst one driving consequences of fire for biophysical and biochemical processes (F1, blue box andarrows), and the second one (F2, yellow box and arrows) consequences of fire for ecosystem servicesand land use. Full arrows indicate topics of direct concern to integrated fire research while dottedarrows represent other important, often indirect effects. Arrows representing different causes (C) andeffects (E) are numbered (Lavorel et al. 2005).
  • In this April 10, 2011, photo, a cow caught in a wildfire lies in a field between Marfa and Fort Davis, Texas. The fire danger remains high in West Texas where firefighters are battling a blaze that's destroyed dozens of homes in two communities, and crews are trying to contain fires elsewhere in the state. (AP Photo/bigbendnow.com, Alberto Tomas Halpern)A wildfire threatens a house near Possum Kingdom, Texas, Tuesday, April 19, 2011. (AP Photo/LM Otero) This fact sheet discusses: organisms and damage commonly seen during or immediately after a fire; and organisms and damage associated with fire-affected trees (including salvaged logs and firewood) within the first few years after a fire event.During the fire and “mop-up” operations, many firefighters report swarming insects. Collectively termed “fire bugs,” these insects are harmless to people and are most often some type of wood borer. The most common wood borers are longhorned beetles (Family Cerambycidae), metallic wood boring beetles (Family Buprestidae, with members of the genus Melanophila being the “fire bug”), and wood wasps (also called horntails, Family Siricidae). Many wood borers use smoke as a pathway to the recently-damaged or killed trees which they favor. This is their ecological role and they are instrumental in beginning the breakdown processes that prepare nutrients for reuse by subsequent plants.
  • Forest fires and climate change gci (ws2011)

    1. 1. Forest Fires and Climate Change Yara Ibrahim Aditya Parmar Global Change Issues – WS 2011-12 1 25/01/2012
    2. 2. Introduction Carbon Dynamics Recent StudiesImpact and Conclusion 2
    3. 3. Global Scale 3 Source: Modis Rapid Response, Web fire Mappers
    4. 4. Fire Activity Weather & Climate Human Fire Fuels Activities Activity Ignition Agent Source: http://scottthong.wordpress.comEvery year more than 50 million ha of forest is burnt down, from which more than 10million ha are boreal forest and 40 million tropical rain forest. 4
    5. 5. Global Warming 5 Source: IPCC 4th Assessment ( 2007)
    6. 6. Effects of GWSource: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/gccalbany1.jpg 6
    7. 7. InteractionsClimate change will interact with Fuel Type, Ignition Source and Topography. 7 Source: Natural Resources Canada Website
    8. 8. Feedback in the Earth Systems 8 Source: Dr. Allan Spessa, Reading University
    9. 9. Carbon Dynamics 1 Live vegetation Dead vegetation Carbon lost due Decompostion of Dynamics of to combustion Fire Killed vegetation (CO2) vegetation following the fire Organic soil horizons 2 Mineral soilsSource : (Pic 1 ) http://serc.carleton.edu/images/eyesinthesky2/week8/fire_storm_mirror_plateau.jpg 9Source: (Pic 2) http://www.nps.gov/fire/images/photos/timeline/37_nps_timelineimages_lff-1910a.jpg
    10. 10. Carbon Dynamics Conceptual C dynamics of above ground tree (dash-dot line) and root (fine dotted line) after fire and clearcut logging, for trees (solid line) and roots (broken line)Source: Meelis Seedre (2011) Conceptual under story C dynamics after fire (dotted line) and clearcut logging (solid line) Source: Meelis Seedre (2011) 10
    11. 11. Carbon Dynamics Conceptual dead wood C dynamics after fire (solid line) and clearcut logging (dotted line)Source: Meelis Seedre (2011)Conceptual soil C dynamics inorganic layer (FF) after fire(solid line) and after clearcut logging(broken line) and in mineral soil(dotted line for both disturbances) Source: Meelis Seedre (2011) 11
    12. 12. Recent Studies ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies at eastern equatorial Pacific El Nino-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- La Nina Source: Kaplan, A. et al.(1998). Drought Fires in SW US Source: Hughes (2000); Cook, E.R. et al.(1999) 12
    13. 13. Recent Studies Percentage increase (above baseline period 2000) in the total number of fires occurring in Ontario. Source: Gillett et. Al. (2004) Area burned in Canada has increased sincethe 1960s, correlated with temp. increase. Source: Climate Change and future fire environment in Ontario: Fire Occurance and Fire management impacts ( 2005) 13
    14. 14. Annual frequency of large (>400 ha) western U.S. forest wildfires (bars) and mean March through August temperature for the western United States . Recent Studies Source: A L Westerling et al. (2006)14
    15. 15. Recent StudiesSource: Steven W. Running ( 2006) Too close for comfort. Wildfire is seen approaching Old Faithful Village, Yellowstone National Park, in 1988. Source: NPS PHOTO .Less moisture—more fires. Between 1970 and 2003, spring and summer moistureavailability declined in many forests in the western United States (left). During the sametime span, most wildfires exceeding 1000 ha in burned area occurred in these regions ofreduced moisture availability (right) 15
    16. 16. Cause of Effect framework Source: Lavorel et al. (2005) 16
    17. 17. ImpactsImpact of the forest fires :• Degradation Soil Water• Deforestation Regime and Floods• Soil erosion• Appearance of insects• Decrease of biodiversity Source:AP Photo/bigbendnow.com, Alberto Tomas Halpern• Human health• Economy• Carbon’s (CO2,CO) and other gas emission• Landscape recreational value Source: AP Photo/LM Otero 17
    18. 18. Conclusion More Black Global Areas and Warming CO2 More Wild Higher Fires Temperature‘’ In response to global change (interaction of climate change, socio-economic changes, and land-use change) and taking into account thatglobal warming is a reality and will lead to an increasing occurrence andseverity of wild land fires globally, and increasing impacts of society’’ .(Source: 5th International Wild land Fire Conference‘’Statement’’ -2011) 18
    19. 19. Source: http://paranoidnews.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/182568_TlUxH7Lu6sbbjyfjmq098D2mc.jpg Thank you 19
    20. 20. Reference1. M.D. Flanningan, B.D. Amiro, K.A. Logan, B.J. Stocks and B.M. Wotton. Forest Fires and ClimateChange in the 21st Century ( 2005)2. N. P. Gillett and A. J. Weaver . Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires(2004)3. Westerling, A.L., H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, and T.W. Swetnam. Warming and ealier springincrease western US forest wildfire activity (2006)4. Meelis Seedre ,Bharat M. Shrestha,Han Y. H. Chen,Steve Colombo ,Kalev Jo˜giste. Carbondynamics of North American boreal forest after standreplacing wildfire and clearcut logging. (2011)5. Steven W. Running .Is Global Warming Causing More, Larger Wildfires?(Science 313, 927(2006))6. Andy Rowell and Dr. Peter F. Moore. Global Review of Forest Fires.7. IPCC 4th Assessment report (2007)8. 5th International Wildland Fire Conference - ‘Wildfire 2011’Conference Statement9. National Centre for Atmosphere Science, Department of MeteorologyReading University10. Mike Wotton, Kim Logon and Rob McAlpine. Climate Change and future fire environment inOntario: Fire Occurance and Fire management impacts ( 2005) 20

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