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The Impact of Innovation

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Innovation is driven by hope and fear. By humans dreaming of a better place. …

Innovation is driven by hope and fear. By humans dreaming of a better place.

Emerging technologies are maintaining scale and deflation, accelerating the pace of change, having a profound impact on how societies, institutions, businesses and individuals interact.

Emerging societal, economical and political realities are reshaping how we perceive the future, mapping dynamics closer to those of emerging markets.

Emerging values of trust, openness and nodal relationships are re-structuring the agora, the marketplace of ideas and goods.

The emergence of new identities, facilitated by technologies and enabled by new values, is the new revolution. A peer-to-peer revolution.

Talk given at the Europe Venture Summit, Startup AddVenture, in Kiev, Ukraine, on December 2013.

On a personal note, this is the fourth time I've given a similar presentation, surrounded by an atmosphere of uprising, after Athens, Rio de Janeiro and Bangkok.

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  • 1. THE IMPACT OF INNOVATION ! ! ! PAUL PAPADIMITRIOU — STARTUP ADDVENTURE — KIEV, UKRAINE — DECEMBER 2013
  • 2. INNOVATION http://www.flickr.com/photos/sudhamshu/3202963823/sizes/l/
  • 3. DISRUPTION http://www.flickr.com/photos/sudhamshu/3202963823/sizes/l/
  • 4. HOW INNOVATION IS BORN http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6240575050/sizes/l/
  • 5. HOW DISRUPTION HAPPENS http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6240575050/sizes/l/
  • 6. 1994 WEB http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6243039829/sizes/l/
  • 7. 1999 MOBILE http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6243039829/sizes/l/
  • 8. 2008 SMARTPHONES http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6243039829/sizes/l/
  • 9. 2013 THE TIPPING POINT http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6243039829/sizes/l/
  • 10. WHAT DRIVES HUMANS? HOPE & FEAR http://www.flickr.com/photos/tamaar/419205093/sizes/l/
  • 11. WHAT DRIVES BUSINESSES? HOPE & FEAR (AT A SLOWER PACE) http://www.flickr.com/photos/tamaar/419205093/sizes/l/
  • 12. INNOVATION IS CREATED BY HOPE & FEAR http://www.flickr.com/photos/tamaar/419205093/sizes/l/
  • 13. HOPE & FEAR AUGMENTED BY MASS NETWORKS http://www.flickr.com/photos/tamaar/419205093/sizes/l/
  • 14. MASS NETWORKS ALLOW FOR VELOCITY & REACH OF HOPE & FEAR http://www.flickr.com/photos/tamaar/419205093/sizes/l/
  • 15. INNOVATION IS A DISAPPEARANCE GAME http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 16. INNOVATION BECOMES OBSOLETE http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 17. INNOVATION DISAPPEARS IN THE BACKGROUND http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 18. DISRUPTION IS A DELFATION GAME http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 19. DISRUPTION THROUGH FALLING PRICES http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 20. INCUMBENTS ARE ADDICTED TO LARGE MARGINS http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 21. NEW ENTRANTS ARE DRAMATICALLY LOWERING PRICE http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 22. THINK YOUTUBE V. TELEVISION http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 23. YOUTUBE PROVIDES MASS SCALE DRAMATICALLY LOWER PRICE http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 24. TV IS ADDICTED TO LARGE MARGINS http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 25. NEW ENTRANTS ARE DRAMATICALLY LOWERING PRICE AT MASS SCALE http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 26. TIPPING POINT DRIVER #1: THE MASS SCALE OF SOCIAL NETWORKS http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
  • 27. PEOPLE ONLINE 5000000000 2029000000 4400000 1995 http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilest/78207447/sizes/l/ Source: World Bank 41100000 200 101900000 201900000 2005 2010 2012 2020
  • 28. 1/3 OF THE WORLD http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilest/78207447/sizes/l/
  • 29. FACEBOOK >1,000,000,000 USERS http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilest/78207447/sizes/l/
  • 30. YOUTUBE >1,000,000,000 UNIQUES/MONTH http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilest/78207447/sizes/l/
  • 31. GLOBALIZATION US World Google MS FB Yahoo 0 http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilest/78207447/sizes/l/ Source: Comscore Global 2013 350 700 1050 1400
  • 32. TIPPING POINT DRIVER #2: THE MASS GLOBALIZATION OF SOCIAL NETWORKS http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
  • 33. #REVOLUTIONS http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
  • 34. NETWORKS ENABLE COMMUNITIES http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
  • 35. NETWORKS ENABLE TRUST http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
  • 36. NETWORKS ENABLE TRANSPARENCY http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
  • 37. NETWORKS ARE UTILITIES http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
  • 38. TIPPING POINT DRIVER #3: THE MATURITY OF TRUSTENABLING SOCIAL NETWORKS http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
  • 39. MASS SCALE PCs Smartphones & tablets 2004 2006 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 2000 http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/ Source: Benedict Evans, Mobile is Eating the World 2002 2008 2010 2012
  • 40. 2014 SCALE 2 BILLION SMARTPHONES http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
  • 41. 2014 SCALE 2 BILLION SMARTPHONES 1 BILLION MOBILE ONLY http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
  • 42. MASS SCALE 2012 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/ Source: Benedict Evans, Mobile is Eating the World Population Mobile 2017 Smartphone PC Tablets
  • 43. MASS SCALE GLOBAL REVENUE 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/ Source: Benedict Evans, Mobile is Eating the World FB E-ADS APPLE PCs ADS MOBILE N.
  • 44. DISRUPTIVE SCALE SMS 20BN/DAY WHAT’S APP 14BN/DAY http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
  • 45. DISRUPTIVE SCALE 2013: 5TR MESSAGES 2014: 25TR MESSAGES http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
  • 46. DISRUPTIVE SCALE MAU 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/ Source: Benedict Evans, Mobile is Eating the World INSTAGRAM LINE TWITTER WECHAT WHATSAPP FB
  • 47. DISRUPTIVE SCALE FACEBOOK 350M PICS/DAY WHAT’S APP 400M PICS/DAY http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
  • 48. DISRUPTIVE SCALE WHAT’S APP IS 45 PEOPLE http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
  • 49. DISRUPTIVE SCALE MOBILE FIRST PLAYERS LINE, WHAT’S APP, WECHAT, KAKAOTALK, … http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
  • 50. Devices/Users (MM, log scale) 1950 PLATFORM SHIFT WEB PC 1960 1970 MINICOMPUTER MAINFRAME Source: Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield and Buyers 1980 MOBILE 10B+ 1B 100M 1990 10M 1M BIGGEST EVER 2000 2010
  • 51. 71% LITERATE PEOPLE WILL HAVE A SMARTPHONE IN 2017 http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/ Source: Benedict Evans, Mobile is Eating the World
  • 52. TIPPING POINT DRIVER #4: THE UNPRECEDENTED EXPLOSION OF MOBILE http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
  • 53. JOBS #FAIL UNEMPLOYMENT UNDER-EMPLOYMENT
 http://www.flickr.com/photos/yo_tuco/3873775866/sizes/o/
  • 54. JOBS #FAIL POST-CRISIS GDP RECOVERY
 NOT JOBS RECOVERY
 http://www.flickr.com/photos/yo_tuco/3873775866/sizes/o/
  • 55. YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT GREECE: 55% 
 SPAIN: 53%
 EU: 22.7% UKRAINE: 18.6% http://www.flickr.com/photos/yo_tuco/3873775866/sizes/o/ Source: OECD, ILO
  • 56. WOMEN WORKFORCE 1,000,000,000 IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS http://www.flickr.com/photos/yo_tuco/3873775866/sizes/o/ Source: OECD, ILO
  • 57. TIPPING POINT DRIVER #5: THE NEW RULES OF GLOBAL WORKFORCE ECONOMICS http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
  • 58. OLD GATE KEEPERS GOVERNMENTS UNIVERSITIES LOBBIES, UNIONS CORPORATIONS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS http://www.flickr.com/photos/somerandomdude/430135303/sizes/l/
  • 59. UNSUSTAINABLE PROTECTIONISM http://www.flickr.com/photos/somerandomdude/430135303/sizes/l/
  • 60. THE OLD GATEKEEPERS CAN’T PROVIDE FOR THE PEOPLE ANYMORE http://www.flickr.com/photos/somerandomdude/430135303/sizes/l/
  • 61. TOP DOWN ORGANIZATIONS CAN’T KEEP UP http://www.flickr.com/photos/somerandomdude/430135303/sizes/l/
  • 62. THE PEOPLE SEE IT BLATANTLY THROUGH NETWORKS http://www.flickr.com/photos/somerandomdude/430135303/sizes/l/
  • 63. TIPPING POINT DRIVER #6: THE INADEQUACY OF TOPDOWN ORGANIZATIONS http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
  • 64. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 65. #1 EMERGING IDENTITIES http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 66. NEW SELF http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 67. FROM TOP-DOWN TO P2P IDENTITIES http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 68. TRIBALISM DIFFERENTIATED LIVING
 NEW GROUPS DETERMINATION
 SHARED ACTUALIZATION http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 69. NOMADISM MOBILITY AUGMENTED LIVING
 http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 70. SINGULARISM SELF-CONSTRUCT NODAL LIVING
 http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 71. NEW IDENTITIES http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 72. NEW CONSUMERS http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 73. EMPOWERED AWARE http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 74. LOOKING FOR http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 75. MEANING ENGAGEMENT CONVENIENCE PERSONALIZATION http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 76. NOT DEFINED BY THINGS http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 77. NOT BUYING THINGS http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 78. DEFINED BY ACCESS TO EXPERIENCES http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 79. BUYING EXPERIENCES http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 80. SHARING EXPERIENCES http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
  • 81. #2 EMERGING MODELS http://www.flickr.com/photos/12184548@N02/1428798524/sizes/l/
  • 82. GLOBAL COMMUNITIES TWITTER FACEBOOK DEVIANTART http://www.flickr.com/photos/12184548@N02/1428798524/sizes/l/
  • 83. COMMUNITIES TAUGHT US TRUST http://www.flickr.com/photos/ishmaelo/38778306/sizes/l/
  • 84. TRANSPARENCY OPENNESS http://www.flickr.com/photos/ishmaelo/38778306/sizes/l/
  • 85. WE’RE NOW USING THIS TRUST TO PROVIDE FOR OURSELVES http://www.flickr.com/photos/ishmaelo/38778306/sizes/l/
  • 86. GLOBAL HUMAN CAPITAL ODESK ELANCE http://www.flickr.com/photos/12184548@N02/1428798524/sizes/l/
  • 87. GLOBAL P2P MARKETPLACES AIRBNB RELAYRIDES LENDINGCLUB ANGELIST
 UDEMY COOKISTO http://www.flickr.com/photos/12184548@N02/1428798524/sizes/l/
  • 88. #3 EMERGING NODES http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
  • 89. CITIES ARE AT THE CENTER OF INNOVATION http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
  • 90. SUPER-LINEARITY http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/ Source: MIT
  • 91. THE INTERNET IS A CITY http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
  • 92. A GLOCAL CITY http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
  • 93. THE INTERNET AT THE CENTER OF INNOVATION http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
  • 94. #4 EMERGING MARKETS http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 95. INCUMBENTS ARE ADDICTED TO LARGE MARGINS http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 96. THINK EMERGING V. INDUSTRIALIZED http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 97. EMERGING MARKETS PROVIDE MASS SCALE DRAMATICALLY LOWER PRICE http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 98. EMERGING MARKETS PROVIDE MASS WORKFORCE DRAMATICALLY LOWER PRICE http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 99. THE “WEST” IS ADDICTED TO LARGE MARGINS http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 100. WE HAD IT TOO GOOD http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 101. BUILT ON ABUNDANCE OF RESOURCES http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 102. ABUNDANCE OF JOBS MONEY, RAW MATERIALS,… http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 103. THIS IS GONE http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 104. WE ARE BEING DISRUPTED http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 105. WE ARE BEING DISRUPTED BY EMERGING MARKETS http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
  • 106. EMERGING MARKETS ALWAYS DEALT WITH LIMITED RESOURCES http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 107. JOBS WERE HARDER TO GET AND PEOPLE DEALT WITH LIMITED RESOURCES http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 108. WITH LIMITED RESOURCES COMES NO CHOICE BUT TO ACCELERATE http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 109. ACCELERATE BREAKING CONVENTIONS http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 110. ACCELERATE IDEAS http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 111. IDEAS REPLICATION http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 112. ORIGINAL? http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/ and http://www.flickr.com/photos/koreanet/8559421022/sizes/l
  • 113. HATING COPY IS INSANITY http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 114. IDEAS V. EXECUTION http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 115. ADAPT TO LIMITED RESOURCES http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 116. EMERGING CHARACTERISTICS Attributes Performance Characteristics Low-low-end Low-end Mid-end High-end Simplicity Simple Complex Robustness Robust/maintenance-friendly Fragile/laborious to maintain Economies of scale High volume Pricing Low price http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/ Source: Roland Berger High to medium volume Medium to low volume Medium price High price Low volume Premium price
  • 117. NOT RICH? NOT ALWAYS ON? NOT TECH SAVVY? http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 118. DIFFERENT MODEL http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 119. CONSTRAINED MODEL http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 120. EFFICIENT MODEL http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 121. INNOVATION OUTPUT INDUS EMERGING 80 75 69 60 40 25 20 0 http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/ 31 2008 2012
  • 122. REPLICABLE MODEL ACROSS CULTURES http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 123. RADICAL MODEL http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
  • 124. THE INTERNET IS A GLOBAL AND FREE AGORA http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
  • 125. IT LIBERATES A NEW SUPPLY OF IDEAS, PEOPLE, GOODS & SERVICES http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
  • 126. A GLOBAL, NODAL, FREE & DEMOCRATIC AGORA http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
  • 127. CONSTANTLY MAINTAINING DEFLATION & SCALE http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
  • 128. A DISRUPTIVE AGORA http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
  • 129. IT’S UP TO YOU TO LIBERATE AND DISRUPT YOURSELVES http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
  • 130. THANK YOU @PAPADIMITRIOU PAPADIMITRIOU.CO http://www.flickr.com/photos/casawood/2337512390/sizes/l/