Missoula Market Update 1-23-2012

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Missoula Market Update 1-23-2012

  1. 1. Monday January 23, 2012 Market Trends MISSOULA, MT Executive Summary Single Family Homes This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend Median List Price $ 239,450 ±+ Asking Price Per Square Foot $ 136 == The median list price in MISSOULA, MT this week is $239,450. Average Days on Market (DOM) 214 == Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 23 % Percent Relisted (reset DOM) n/a Inventory has been tightening and days-on-market increasing recently. The Market Action Index has been basically flat, not Percent Flip (price increased) 2% providing strong indication for market conditions. Median House Size (sq ft) 1749 Median Lot Size 8,001 - 10,000 sqft Median Number of Bedrooms 3.0 Median Number of Bathrooms 2.0 Supply and Demand Market Action Index Strong Buyers 17.2 ±+ The market has shown some evidence of slowing recently. Both ±+ No change == Strong upward trend ≠≠ Strong downward trend prices and inventory levels are relatively unchanged in recent weeks. Watch the Market Action Index for changes as it can be a leading = Slight upward trend ≠ Slight downward trend indicator for price changes. Price Market Action Index The market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability of this trend. Price Trends 7-Day Rolling Average 90-Day Rolling Average Buyer/Seller Cutoff The Market Action Index answers the question "Hows the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Sellers Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer. Quartiles 7-Day Rolling Average 90-Day Rolling Average Characteristics per Quartile Investigate the market in quartiles - where each quartile is 25% of homes ordered by price. Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM 1.0 - 2.5 Top/First $ 499,000 2999 acres 4.0 3.0 13 113 4 7 274 Most expensive 25% of properties 0.25 - 0.50Upper/Second $ 289,900 2249 acre 3.0 2.0 20 113 3 4 231 Upper-middle 25% of properties 6,501 - Lower/Third $ 210,000 1749 8,000 sqft 3.0 2.0 30 113 7 6 168 Lower-middle 25% of properties 4,501 -Bottom/Fourth $ 169,000 1249 6,500 sqft 3.0 2.0 33 113 6 7 184 Least expensive 25% of properties Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 Powered by Altos Research LLC | www.altosresearch.com | Copyright ©2005-2010 Altos Research LLC
  2. 2. City Overview Single Family Homes in Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 MISSOULA, MT This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in MISSOULA, Median List Price $ 239,450 ±+ MT this week is $239,450. The 452 Average List Price $ 323,586 properties have been on the market Asking Price Per Square Foot $ 136 == for an average of 214 days. Average Days on Market (DoM) 214 == Inventory of Properties Listed 452 ≠≠ Most Expensive Listing $ 3,985,000 Inventory has been tightening and Least Expensive Listing $ 45,900 days-on-market increasing recently. Average Age of Listing 30 The Market Action Index has been Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 23 % basically flat, not providing strong Percent Relisted (reset DOM) n/a indication for market conditions. Percent Flip (price increased) 2% Median House Size (sq ft) 1749 Median Lot Size 8,001 - 10,000 sqft Median Number of Bedrooms 3.0 Supply and Demand Median Number of Bathrooms 2.0 Altos Research Value Statistics The market has shown some Market Action Index Strong Buyers 17.2 ±+ evidence of slowing recently. Both The Market Action Index answers the question "Hows the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 prices and inventory levels are implies a sellers advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to the relatively unchanged in recent buyer. weeks. Watch the Market Action Index for changes as it can be a Trend Key: == Strong upward trend ≠≠ Strong downward trend leading indicator for price changes. ±+ No change = Slight upward trend ≠ Slight downward trend Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM 1.0 - 2.5 Top/First $ 499,000 2999 acres 4.0 3.0 13 113 4 7 274 Most expensive 25% of properties 0.25 - 0.50Upper/Second $ 289,900 2249 acre 3.0 2.0 20 113 3 4 231 Upper-middle 25% of properties 6,501 - Lower/Third $ 210,000 1749 8,000 sqft 3.0 2.0 30 113 7 6 168 Lower-middle 25% of properties 4,501 -Bottom/Fourth $ 169,000 1249 6,500 sqft 3.0 2.0 33 113 6 7 184 Least expensive 25% of propertiesPage 2 of 31 Monday January 23, 2012
  3. 3. Single Family Homes in City Overview Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 MISSOULA, MT Median Price The market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability of this trend. 7-day Average 90-day Average Quartile Prices Prices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels. First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/BottomPage 3 of 31 Monday January 23, 2012
  4. 4. Single Family Homes in City Overview Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 MISSOULA, MT Price per Square Foot The value placed on homes continues to increase, despite the fact that prices in general have been basically flat recently. These conditions can arise when inventory is light and more, smaller homes have more influence on overall prices. 7-day Average 90-day Average Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply. 7-day Average 90-day AveragePage 4 of 31 Monday January 23, 2012
  5. 5. Single Family Homes in City Overview Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 MISSOULA, MT Market Action Index The MISSOULA market is currently quite strongly in the Buyers Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 17.19. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice. 90-day Average Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Market Action Index per Quartile Not surprisingly given the overall Market Action Index, all quartiles are in the Buyers Market zone with several months of inventory given the current rate of demand for homes in the quartile. Watch the quartile for changes before the overall market shifts. Often one end of the market (e.g. the low end) will improve and signal a strengthening market before the whole group changes. First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’s Advantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.Page 5 of 31 Monday January 23, 2012
  6. 6. Single Family Homes in City Overview Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 MISSOULA, MT Days on Market The properties have been on the market for an average of 214 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 152 or so days. 7-day Average 90-day Average Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/BottomPage 6 of 31 Monday January 23, 2012
  7. 7. Monday January 23, 2012 Market Trends MISSOULA, MT Executive Summary Condos - Townhomes This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend Median List Price $ 179,900 == Asking Price Per Square Foot $ 139 == The median list price in MISSOULA, MT this week is $179,900. Average Days on Market (DOM) 255 == Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 18 % Percent Relisted (reset DOM) n/a Inventory has been decreasing lately but the Market Action Index is falling also. With days-on-market climbing, these are relatively Percent Flip (price increased) 0% negative implications for the market. Median House Size (sq ft) 1249 Median Number of Bedrooms 2.0 Median Number of Bathrooms 2.0 Market Action Index Strong Buyers 10.9 ≠≠ Supply and Demand In terms of supply and demand, the market is getting cooler - more ±+ No change == Strong upward trend ≠≠ Strong downward trend supply is coming on the market relative to the sales demand. However, in recent weeks prices have been moving higher. Since it is = Slight upward trend ≠ Slight downward trend technically a Buyers market, this price trend may be a result of improved quality (newer, larger homes) of the homes being listed. Look at the descriptive statistics where you may notice the homes being listed are larger and younger than they have been in the past. Price Market Action Index Price trends continued their recent uptrend this week. While still below the markets price high-point, weve seen a nice run recently. Price Trends 7-Day Rolling Average 90-Day Rolling Average Buyer/Seller Cutoff The Market Action Index answers the question "Hows the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Sellers Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer. Quartiles 7-Day Rolling Average 90-Day Rolling Average Characteristics per Quartile Investigate the market in quartiles - where each quartile is 25% of homes ordered by price. Quartile Median Price Square Feet Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $ 375,000 2249 3.0 2.2 4 29 0 0 488 Most expensive 25% of propertiesUpper/Second $ 210,000 1249 2.0 2.0 18 30 3 0 187 Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 161,950 1249 2.0 1.8 4 30 0 0 180 Lower-middle 25% of propertiesBottom/Fourth $ 125,750 999 2.0 1.0 10 30 0 2 174 Least expensive 25% of properties Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 Powered by Altos Research LLC | www.altosresearch.com | Copyright ©2005-2010 Altos Research LLC
  8. 8. City Overview Condos & Townhomes in Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 MISSOULA, MT This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in MISSOULA, Median List Price $ 179,900 == MT this week is $179,900. The 119 Average List Price $ 226,840 properties have been on the market Asking Price Per Square Foot $ 139 == for an average of 255 days. Average Days on Market (DoM) 255 == Inventory of Properties Listed 119 ≠≠ Most Expensive Listing $ 667,500 Inventory has been decreasing lately Least Expensive Listing $ 77,500 but the Market Action Index is falling Average Age of Listing 21 also. With days-on-market climbing, Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 18 % these are relatively negative Percent Relisted (reset DOM) n/a implications for the market. Percent Flip (price increased) 0% Median House Size (sq ft) 1249 Median Number of Bedrooms 2.0 Median Number of Bathrooms 2.0 Supply and Demand Altos Research Value Statistics Inventory levels have been relatively Market Action Index Strong Buyers 10.9 ≠≠ consistent relative to sales. Despite The Market Action Index answers the question "Hows the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 the fact that there is a relatively implies a sellers advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to the high amount of available inventory, buyer. this Buyers market is still seeing prices move higher. Given inventory Trend Key: == Strong upward trend ≠≠ Strong downward trend levels, these price conditions are ±+ No change = Slight upward trend ≠ Slight downward trend relatively fragile. If the market cools off further, the price trend is likely to reverse. Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $ 375,000 2249 3.0 2.2 4 29 0 0 488 Most expensive 25% of propertiesUpper/Second $ 210,000 1249 2.0 2.0 18 30 3 0 187 Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 161,950 1249 2.0 1.8 4 30 0 0 180 Lower-middle 25% of propertiesBottom/Fourth $ 125,750 999 2.0 1.0 10 30 0 2 174 Least expensive 25% of propertiesPage 2 of 26 Monday January 23, 2012
  9. 9. Condos & Townhomes in City Overview Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 MISSOULA, MT Median Price Price trends continued their recent uptrend this week. While still below the markets price high-point, weve seen a nice run recently. 7-day Average 90-day Average Quartile Prices Prices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels. First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/BottomPage 3 of 26 Monday January 23, 2012
  10. 10. Condos & Townhomes in City Overview Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 MISSOULA, MT Price per Square Foot The market appears to be placing an increasing premium on homes. When list prices and price per square foot consistently increase in tandem, as theyre doing now, you can often find short-term investment opportunities. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator for these trends to flatten or drop. 7-day Average 90-day Average Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply. 7-day Average 90-day AveragePage 4 of 26 Monday January 23, 2012
  11. 11. Condos & Townhomes in City Overview Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 MISSOULA, MT Market Action Index The MISSOULA market is currently quite strongly in the Buyers Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 10.94. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice. 90-day Average Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Market Action Index per Quartile Not surprisingly given the overall Market Action Index, all quartiles are in the Buyers Market zone with several months of inventory given the current rate of demand for homes in the quartile. Watch the quartile for changes before the overall market shifts. Often one end of the market (e.g. the low end) will improve and signal a strengthening market before the whole group changes. First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’s Advantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.Page 5 of 26 Monday January 23, 2012
  12. 12. Condos & Townhomes in City Overview Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141 MISSOULA, MT Days on Market The properties have been on the market for an average of 255 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 162 or so days. 7-day Average 90-day Average Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/BottomPage 6 of 26 Monday January 23, 2012

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