1
Tindak Malaysia:
Together we can make a difference
2
An assessment of the electoral &
financial outlook for Malaysia.
What the numbers tell us and what
conclusions to draw f...
3
6 POINTS:
1. BN cannot lose,
2. They know they are in trouble.
3. Their solution: push Malaysia
into bankruptcy,
4. IMF ...
4
Questions:
1. Where are we?
2. How did we get here?
3. Where are we headed?
4. How can we make it better?
RATIONALE BEHI...
Tindak Malaysia supports the reason why the
Election Commission was formed - to ensure
elections in Malaysia are free and ...
Our training is based on the election laws
and is politically-neutral.
We are pro-Rakyat and accept any party
that is vote...
7
• Mobile phone to silent mode,
• Introduction,
• Stickers,
• Outline of Programme and duration,
• Expected results.
8
Tindak Malaysia strategy:
• Understand the principles of
psychological warfare,
• How is it used against us?
• Develop s...
Their goal is to amass fortunes through all means,
legal and illegal, live a life of luxury, and preserve their
dynasty in...
10
Politics
Economics
Social
11
BN CANNOT LOSE,
ALTHOUGH BN WANTS THE
PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THEY CAN
LOSE!
Politics
Economics
Social
12
WE NEED TO STUDY HISTORY !
Year
Alliance Party/BN* Opposition Total
seatsSeats % seats % vote Seats % seats % vote
1959...
BN
 140 MPs (63.1%)
 8 states
 50.27 % of votes
PR
 82 MPs (36.9%)
 5 states
 46.75 % of votes
http://en.wikipedia.o...
Putra Jaya (BN)
Smallest
6608 voters
Kapar (PKR)
Largest
112,224 voters
Voters ratio = 1:17
Even the 2nd smallest seat, La...
1515
Selangor Constituencies
Same DUN but
separated by land
and sea
16
N45 SELAT KELANG
Same DUN but
separated by land
and sea
17
Four evenly matched districts
Redrawing of boundaries to give
three-district advantage to Party 2
All districts produce...
18
One Voter One Vote ?
Question: Do the
Chinese & Indians
decide for a
simple majority?
Courtesy of the famous retiree: N...
19
DESIGN: 1st 112 seats: 1.85 million.
2008, BN contested 139 seats to win
112 seats. 2.08 million votes required
(19%).
...
21
The smallest 112 seats come from:
Sabah, incl Labuan: 26,
Sarawak: 25,
Johor: 13,
Perak: 12,
Pahang: 8,
(Peninsular Mal...
22
Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 1 - 28
13 =
Sarawak
12 =
Sabah
Majority
Sabah &
Sarawak
23
Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 29 - 56
24
Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 57 - 84
25
Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 85 - 112
26
Point No. 1: BN cannot lose.
Is that the reason we have such blatant
corruption and inequality?
Is it a coincidence tha...
27
It’s good to
belong to the
Ruling Class!
States with the highest incidence
of poverty: Sabah & Sarawak
28
Results of not paying attention:
Ruling Party enjoyed 2/3 majority for
more than 50 years since 1957.
Consequences: 700...
29
21-06-1962, Constitutional Amendment:
Article 116: Safeguard to maintain voter
difference to less than 15% removed.
Cla...
36
37
Politics
Economics
Social
38
Politics
Economics
Social
They start looking
for alternatives!
CIVIL UNREST: When the poor are hungry
and angry, they have nothing left to lose !
39
EGYPT
40
41
42
43
Do we want this?
No!
44
WE GO BANKRUPT BY
2013!
45
BONDS: Thompson Reuters Eikon
DOMESTIC DEBT: Treasury Report
GLC’s: Annual Accounts
CAUTION: There may be some double-c...
46
NATIONAL
DEBT –
Govt Bonds
USD 179.8 B
13.01.2011
USD 44B rolled
over last year!
47
Screenshot of Thomson Reuters Eikon
48
NATIONAL DEBT – GLC’s
USD 19.5
Billion
GLC: Govt-
linked cos
USD Million
49
DOMESTIC DEBT
USD 125.9 Billion
USD 136 B :
57% Debt/GDP
31st Dec
In 3 ½ years,
domestic debt has
gone up by 70%!
50
TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B
Countries
that
collapsed at
Debt/GDP:
Ireland, Dec
2010: 96%
Greece, May
2010: 134%
Malaysia
1...
51
TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B
WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM?
53
CAN IT GET WORSE?
Debt/GDP: 139%, annual deficit: 4 – 5%
Operating expenditure eats up all revenue & pensions depend on...
54
RM 200 vouchers for 1.3 million students:
RM 260 million,
One-off RM 100 aid each to 5.3 million
students: RM 530 milli...
55
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
Bureaucracy as % of Population
1.4 M Civil Servants,
3 M RELA...
56
WHAT ARE THE PIIGS ?
P: Portugal
I: Ireland
I: Italy
G: Greece
S: Spain
57
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PIIGS DEFAULT ?
• THEY GET SLAUGHTERED !
• Bond yields shoot sky-high
• Is that Malaysia’s fate ?
58
GREECE
• Bond-buyers have to take a hair-cut !
In late October 2011, euro-zone
governments called on Greece to secure
a...
59
• We have oil palm!
• We have oil & gas!
• We have electronics & electricals!
• We have high savings rate – EPF!
BUT MA...
60
In 2009, Robert Kuok was forced to sell
off his sugar monopoly to some
“businessmen”.
Don’t mess with Robert !Kuok.
How...
61
SUGAR PRICE
International sugar
price goes down
World price dropped but
domestic price went up by 40%!
Why ?
62
Oil palm: Najib asked China to increase oil palm
import from Malaysia but no deal.
• Why?
• Robert Kuok’s Arowana Cooki...
63
• We become net importer by 2014,
2015!
• Govt demanding more and more
money from Petronas.
• Petronas tried to stop th...
64
• This depends on foreign countries.
• Europe is in serious trouble.
• So’s the US.
• Even China is having a housing bu...
65
NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO CHINA !
Property crashing - Chinese ghost town:
http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/1928...
 The soft landing view foresees Chinese
central technocrats responding timely
with well-calibrated fiscal and monetary
po...
 The hard landing scenario predicts that an
uncontrolled implosion of the property
market will unleash waves of wealth
de...
68
• Malaysia cannot borrow cheaply from
international market as we are in the
same situation as Greece.
• So they tap int...
69
IMPLICATIONS: INTERNATIONAL BAILOUT
Greece outlook: Look at Greece’s situation
• Expulsion from EU,
• New currency with...
70
• Petronas, banks and insurance cos
forced to buy low interest Govt bonds,
• Equivalent loans from international
market...
71
DO THE BUSINESS PEOPLE KNOW?
RM 39,000/person!
Highest in the world per capita!
GFI reports that
Malaysia lost USD 338
...
72
How much is RM 1.08 Trillion?
RM 100 notes
stacked all the way
from Singapore to
Phuket!
For the smallest 112 seats,
ea...
73
Equal to RM 100
notes stacked all
the way from
Singapore to
Phuket!
Capital flight
RM 150 B in 2009,
24% of GDP !
Where...
74
75
An Amah in 1970 earned
more than a Graduate
today?!!0.39
0.4
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.48
1970 Amah 2010 Gradua...
CASHING OUT !
PUSHING MALAYSIA TO
BANKRUPTCY !
DO OUR LEADERS KNOW ?
78
Never mind, they will find some suckers in the KLSE
to buy their shares during listing.
Lim Teck Ghee warning.
FELDA:
D...
79
KL MRT 12 times cost of
Beijing – Shanghai High Speed Train.
Not economical – sure bankrupt.
80
KLIA2: COST JUMPED FROM RM 1.6 B
TO RM 3.9 B WITH 1 YEAR DELAY !
81
• Sg Besi Airport
land, worth RM
5.2 B but sold for
only RM 1.6 B !
82
• Regain 2/3 majority to shore up power,
• Put all the laws in place to control
dissent,
• Push country to bankruptcy.
...
84
• Public Assembly Bill passed to prepare for
repression by the police
PREPARING FOR UNREST !
As law-abiding citizens, i...
85
1st JAN 2012: START OF POLICE STATE ?
UPSI 01.01.12: The president of undergraduate movement Bebas, Muhammad
Safwan Ana...
86
EVENTS OUTSIDE OUR CONTROL
• SOVEREIGN DEFAULT:
• Italy,
• Greece,
• Spain,
• France,
• UK,
• US,
• China
87
WHAT ARE THE DANGERS ?
• Banks or bank holidays,
• Capital control,
• Commercial property & housing,
• Borrowings and h...
88
Bank Runs
89
NEW
MALAYSIAN
EXPORT:
MAIDS &
LABOUR
Maybe to
Indonesia!
90
HYPER-
INFLATION
Zimbabwe, Nov
2007: USD 1 =
Zimbabwe Dollars
1 million.
1 year later, it was
ZDR 250 billion!
Where Will We End Up??
1. Uneven development along group lines,
2. Criminalization &/or delegitimisation of the State,
3. ...
92
30 STAGES OF COLLAPSE
Public Assembly Bill
IMF
93
IS THERE HOPE ?
1. When nearing bankruptcy...
• A country’s best chance of survival is for
foreign investors to bring m...
94For simplification: Use mental models!
1ST UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEM
Study tindakmalaysia.com:
• History
• Religion
• Psycho...
95
(Shrinking)
(expanding)
96
UMNO
Rebels
97
 ATTORNEY GENERAL’S OFFICE
 ELECTION COMMISSION (EC/SPR)
 IMMIGRATION DEPT
 INLAND REVENUE BOARD (IRB)
 JAKIM/MUIS
 ...
 SYSTEM DEPENDS ON CASH-FLOW
 LOYALTY ISTO MONEY
 SYSTEM BREAKS DOWNWHEN CASH-FLOW
STOPS
99
100
HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN ?
Leverage 100x
4 million foreigners
Are banks safe?
Are jobs safe?
http://www.imi.gov.my/index.p...
101
POLITICS
SOCIAL
ECONOMICS
X
STARVE
THE
BEAST
?
?
102
SYSTEM RESTS ON CONFIDENCE !
CONFIDENCE
&TRUST
103
WHAT WE NEED !
The US: A depression does a lot of good.
It wipes out bad investments and eliminates bad speculators.
I...
104
2013 - Economic cycle: 50 – 60 years !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kondratieff_Wave.svg
HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?
• Bank savings: Convert to gold bullion,
• Pensions: Withdraw if possible,
• Stocks and mutual f...
106
HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?
• Stock up on essentials & dried-food,
• Food-growing land –
move to the countryside!
• Hous...
107
PREPARING FOR A HARSH FUTURE
• Don’t accept whatever is said today.
• Do you own due diligence.
• Monitor future event...
108
FURTHER READING
Banking & debt, simply-explained.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM&featur
e=player_embedded
...
109
JoinTindak Malaysia
Spread the word !
To be free:
Understand psychological warfare,
Mental revolution needed to take a...
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Tindak Malaysia: The Die Is Cast

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  • While waiting for people to come in, play M4C Part 1.Preamble for audience: Good news. Unexpected outcome but the best one possible out of many bad ones.
  • Started a forum to put my ideas down. Build the information database.
  • Life Cycles. We must learn to recognize attempts at cultural genocide as part of psychological warfare and be brave enough to verbalize it to create a mass consciousness to resist it. Otherwise, we end up with the Boiled Frog Syndrome.
  • This is in the middle-east. But it could just as well be here. From the perspective of psychological warfare, it is necessary to understand that UMNO was founded on a lie and they have been lying to the people from day 1.
  • We think the solution is in politics. That is what politicians want you to think. Look at what is happening around the world. You may get a different answer.
  • That is psychological warfare. Similarly, all politicians on both sides of the political divide want you to think that change is only possible through politics. That way they control you.
  • After gerrymanderring, Party 2 win 3 seats while party 1 win 1 seat.
  • Top right box: Story - We have minority ethnic groups demanding special consideration due to the perceived importance of their votes. Are they a factor in these 139 seats? Do the Bumis need to worry about losing power?
  • Was this by accident?
  • The people who designed this are brilliant.
  • Once they have a 2/3 majority, is the BN capable of creating 200 Putrajaya’s? Look at their past record and judge for yourself.
  • When we look at the 112 smallest parliamentary seats, Putrajaya is sitting on top of the pyramid. Most of the remainder fall in the lower-income group. Is that a coincidence or by design? Dark blue and light blue are Sarawak and Sabah respectively.
  • Is poverty in Sabah and Sarawak by accident? Are poor roads, communications, education, healthcare, water, electricity by accident? No! It’s to keep the people poor so they are easier to control. It’s to give the incumbent an advantage during elections as they control the media and by extension, the minds of the people. They use greed and fear to intimidate the people – TuaiRumah, vote buying, threats about the secrecy of their votes. Contrast Putrajaya with the rural areas in Sabah/Sarawak.
  • There are 2 primary sources of exploitation.Exploit the Rats by stealing their time in the Rat Race (the Economic System),Steal the resources of the land.
  • This is the power structure in our country. A small group at the top controls everything, eating the meat and leaving the bones to us. The states with the highest incidence of poverty have the largest no. of small Parliamentary seats. Keep them poor so it is easier to control and to buy their votes.Compare with Singapore: 5 million. Did you know that more than half of Singapore's population (of nearly 5 million people) falls within the world's top 8.8% wealth bracket? The country's average wealth per adult is nearly $300,000 (USD) and rising. http://www.sovereignman.com/expat/three-countries-where-youll-want-to-have-exposure/
  • Our Constitution has become unrecognizable. When did the change come about?
  • England has started rationalising their seats to make it more even.
  • The aim is for 99% of the seats to fall within 5% of the national limit by 2015. If we are aiming for Wawasan 2020, should we not upgrade our electoral systems to First World standard as well?
  • Let’s look at the Social segment
  • Let’s look around for examples.
  • Do we want this? No!What’s next?
  • Caution: We don’t have all the numbers. There may be some double-counting. And we are happy if we can be proven wrong.
  • USD 44.6 Bllion was rolled over last year. That’s 86% of 2010 Federal revenue.
  • Just to show that the numbers are not a figment of our imagination.Screenshot from Bloomberg report. Need subscription to access.
  • Let’s have more fun. Only 10 GLC’s (Govt-linked cos). USD 19.5 B.
  • By Jun 2011 domestic debt has increased from RM 390 B to RM 421 B (increase by RM 31 B = USD 10 B). Debt increase 20% per year! Very high!
  • We have gone past Greece. They collapsed in May 2010 at 134% Debt/GDP. What is GDP? Gross domestic product. We go bankrupt by 2013
  • At the rate operating expenditure is growing, we run out of money very soon. So pensions and civil service jobs will need to be chopped.
  • Are these the actions of a responsible Govt? Spending money that we don’t have and throwing the burden to future generations.
  • People will start to look for scape-goats. Politicians, civil service, pensioners. Black hands will try to trigger civil unrest. Remember Indonesia in 1998.
  • Let’s look elsewhere for answers.
  • Countries get into trouble when their bonds interest exceed 7%. That is why Italy is shaky. Greece bond yields very unstable. Previously 21%. Is that the reason why Malaysia dare not go to the international market, preferring to take from EPF and the banks? How long can this last?
  • Bond-buyers will lump Malaysia in the same category.
  • International sugar price went up and came down. But local price went up and never came down. Point at the international sugar price going down and contrast with domestic price going up over same period.
  • And Indonesia is a much lower-cost producer than us. Is Robert Kuok trying to send us a message?
  • Who was the CEO? HasanMerican
  • In China, it’s not an issue of whether it’s going to crash. The question is whether it is going to be soft or hard?
  • Do you want to wait and find out?
  • The US owns the largest gold holding in the world – 8,800 tonnes. It is supposed to be kept in Fort Knox. What we have lost through illicit outflow is equivalent to ¾ of the Fort Knox gold.Take 112 smallest seats. 3.698 million voters. RM 540 billion loss over 5 years. Take 50%. RM 270 billion. Loss per voter RM 73,000! What about the money still in the country? Now, do you understand why you are so poor?For some people, it seems their decision is based on the last incentive given to them just before they reach the ballot box.
  • What is the cause of currency flight?Illegal money,CorruptionPoor local investment climate,People lose confidence in the Govt and political stability,Fear of currency devaluation due to too high debts, Iran’s example - http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/4284-Economics-Iran-s-central-bank-faces-lost-rial-battle?p=11751#post11751Mispricing of MNC exports
  • Play the video M4C Part 2
  • Discussion of this topic will take 20 – 30 minutes. For the purpose of our discussion today, just take our figures that the extra cost isRM 1.1 Million per middle-class couple over 50 years. For a poor family, it’s RM 300,000. Not paying attention to elections can be very expensive.
  • FELDA should have RM 25 B but today owes EPF RM 6.5 B. Why is workers’ pension fund used to bail out FELDA?Follow FELDA saga here: http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/3974-FELDA-Harapkan-Pagar-Pagar-Makan-Padi
  • KL MRT: 25% of Federal Revenue. What about Agong’s Palace 800 M? RM 400 B wasted on unproductive projects. RM 889 B illegal transfer.
  • Original name of airport as proposed by Sime Darby was KLIA-East@Labu (http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/606-Sime-Darby-gets-OK-for-KLIA-East-Labu-KLIA2). In Jan 2009, the cost was estimated at RM 1.6B (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/search/results/3a6a3703002604f8ca4ec944b0513259/). This has now ballooned to RM 3.9 B with an increase of passenger traffic from 30 million to 45 million a year.
  • I believe the land should be worth more than 10B. Why are we giving it away at fire-sale price?
  • If we want to see the future, study the past and the present situation in other countries – Argentina, Brazil, Greece, Hungary, Weimar Germany.
  • If Parliament is dissolved before the BERSIH 2.0 8 Demands are met, let’s obey the Peaceful Assembly Law and stay home for 1 week.
  • Someone claimed that bank deposits are guaranteed up to RM 250K. It’s obvious such people have not seen a country going bankrupt!
  • It’s our turn
  • Personal story: Nov 2007.
  • We have achieved half of them.
  • Not long to go.
  • Famous phrases that has been proven over time and useful to remember constantly:Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely, (Lord Acton or First Baron Acton or John Emerich Edward Dalberg-Acton (1834-1902) http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/absolute-power-corrupts-absolutely.html)Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it, George Santayana (1863-1952) (http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Who_said_Those_who_do_not_learn_from_the_past_are_doomed_to_repeat_it)Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel, Samuel Johnson (http://www.samueljohnson.com/refuge.html)Watch the movie “The Matrix”. Instead of using a computer chip, the rulers use a software called “psychological warfare”.
  • This is the power structure in our country. A small group at the top controls everything, eating the meat and leaving the bones to us.
  • UMNO uses this model to suppress the people. This is just a model. You can create other models to explain what is happening.
  • This is a detailed chart of the various elements in UMNO’s Framework of Suppression. Every ministry, every govt body is involved to ensure UMNO’s continued rule. PERKASA – Is that a social or anti-social organisation? The most important of them all is the UMNO War Machine. What is that?
  • Where are these people? Jusa [JawatanUtamaSektorAwam]. They are the ones with the super-high salaries. If BN loses, will these people give way quietly? The red ones were the most active during the Perak power grab in Feb 2009.
  • Look beyond politics.
  • Foreign workers: Official 2.3 million. Estimated untracked 1.7 million. Total 4 million.Solution: The Rat Race System depends on cash-flow. Cash-flow depends on confidence of the Rats in the financial system. This finances corruption? Bank deposits, lottery tickets.When confidence is lost, Rats pull money out of the system and it collapses rapidly due to deleveraging.Foreign labour will leave when there are no more jobs.
  • What happens when cashflow is squeezed? There is not enough money to go round and the corrupt leaders will fight among themselves over the shrinking pie. The economy shrinks, increasing the people’s unhappiness with leaders they see are corrupt. The UMNO War Machine will slowly grind to a halt without money. This is a complicated slide. Explaining it will take a 1-hour video.
  • If trust in the system breaks, the Rat heads for the exits. Solution: The Rat Race System depends on cash-flow. Cash-flow depends on confidence of the Rats in the financial system. This finances corruption? Bank deposits, lottery tickets.When confidence is lost, Rats pull money out of the system and it collapses rapidly due to deleveraging.Foreign labour will leave when there are no more jobs.
  • Start exploring possibilities. Schumpeter: Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism,_Socialism_and_Democracy. Creative destruction - http://transcriptions.english.ucsb.edu/archive/courses/liu/english25/materials/schumpeter.htmlMaybe the solution is found outside Malaysia. A change of govt alone does not solve our problems. It needs a change of mindset and attitude.
  • Understand that life goes in cycles. We may be caught in an economic cycle outside our control. There is nothing in the holy books that says Malaysia is special and can behave outside the laws of economics.Don’t feel depressed. Malaysia will rise again once we are freed of the scourge eating up the nation.
  • Objections: It’s not safe to buy gold.Response: Show Nokia E90 phone, 2cmx5.7cmx13.3cm. Ask audience the value of equivalent gold bar – RM 600K.Can keep RM 600 k in the bra.Have you tried carrying cash RM 600 k in your pocket? (RM 50 notes, 1.2 m high.) Typical response is “No.”Tell audience: It’s all in your head. It’s only fear that stops your from acting in your best interests.Next point: Don’t put a sticker on your forehead saying: “I am carrying gold bars!”Objection: Giving up my insurance will cause me to lose a lot of money.Response: In Zimbabwe, the Central Bank chopped 5 zeros from the Zimbabwe dollar. What’s the point of having 1 million insurance if that happens. You pay money today for smaller money tomorrow.
  • Observe how people in other countries take pro-active action to protect themselves. This is what I am doing. I am not telling you what to do. You have to decide for yourselves.
  • Basically, I am optimistic. People will only change when they are in pain, massive pain but it is necessary for us to go through this process to become a normal nation. This is a reset. Then we start catching up with Singapore and the rest. We have been held back for too long.
  • Read and understand. Don’t accept blindly. It’s your future. You will pay the price for your mistakes and enjoy the benefits of the right decisions.
  • The path to freedom requires us to understand what is psychological warfare, develop self defense techniques and a change in our mindset to put it in motion. Join Tindak Malaysia to learn more.May you be Free and Happy. Thank you for listening
  • Tindak Malaysia: The Die Is Cast

    1. 1. 1 Tindak Malaysia: Together we can make a difference
    2. 2. 2 An assessment of the electoral & financial outlook for Malaysia. What the numbers tell us and what conclusions to draw from it.
    3. 3. 3 6 POINTS: 1. BN cannot lose, 2. They know they are in trouble. 3. Their solution: push Malaysia into bankruptcy, 4. IMF come in to clean up the mess. Blame IMF for problems later, 5. New Rat Race System starts. 6. You don’t have to believe a word that is said!
    4. 4. 4 Questions: 1. Where are we? 2. How did we get here? 3. Where are we headed? 4. How can we make it better? RATIONALE BEHIND TINDAKMALAYSIA.COM
    5. 5. Tindak Malaysia supports the reason why the Election Commission was formed - to ensure elections in Malaysia are free and fair. (Elections Act S 5 (1a)) EC has to enjoy public confidence. (Federal Constitution Article 114) A group of caring Malaysians carrying out community service through voter education and PACABA Training.
    6. 6. Our training is based on the election laws and is politically-neutral. We are pro-Rakyat and accept any party that is voted in freely and fairly. We believe that “Power Corrupts, And Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely”. We take the position that there must be checks and balances and that no one party should hold too much power.
    7. 7. 7 • Mobile phone to silent mode, • Introduction, • Stickers, • Outline of Programme and duration, • Expected results.
    8. 8. 8 Tindak Malaysia strategy: • Understand the principles of psychological warfare, • How is it used against us? • Develop self-defense measures. Nations move in 50 to 60-year cycles! When politicians hold power for too long, they become arrogant, bullies and corrupt! The ABC’s of politics.
    9. 9. Their goal is to amass fortunes through all means, legal and illegal, live a life of luxury, and preserve their dynasty in any way that they can (such as pampered intelligence and military services, cadres of corrupt cronies, discriminatory governance to divide the citizenry, and costly foreign support). The result is that these countries have been financially plundered, with an inhospitable business climate, an underdeveloped private sector and little economic and social progress. http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ML22Ak02.html Where is this place? Middle –east! 9
    10. 10. 10 Politics Economics Social
    11. 11. 11 BN CANNOT LOSE, ALTHOUGH BN WANTS THE PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THEY CAN LOSE! Politics Economics Social
    12. 12. 12 WE NEED TO STUDY HISTORY ! Year Alliance Party/BN* Opposition Total seatsSeats % seats % vote Seats % seats % vote 1959 74 71.15 51.7 30 28.85 48.3 104 1964 89 85.58 58.5 15 14.42 41.5 104 1969 95 65.97 49.3 49 34.03 50.7 144 1974 135 87.66 60.7 19 12.34 39.3 154 1978 130 84.42 57.2 24 15.58 42.8 154 1982 132 85.71 60.5 22 14.29 39.5 154 1986 148 83.62 55.8 29 16.38 41.5 177 1990 127 70.55 53.4 53 29.45 46.6 180 1995 162 84.38 65.2 30 15.62 34.8 192 1999 148 76.68 56.5 45 23.32 43.5 193 2004 198 90.41 63.9 21 9.59 36.1 219 2008 140 62.61 52.2 82 36.93 47.8 222
    13. 13. BN  140 MPs (63.1%)  8 states  50.27 % of votes PR  82 MPs (36.9%)  5 states  46.75 % of votes http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_general_election,_2008
    14. 14. Putra Jaya (BN) Smallest 6608 voters Kapar (PKR) Largest 112,224 voters Voters ratio = 1:17 Even the 2nd smallest seat, Lawas, has 15,717, which is 2.4 times larger!
    15. 15. 1515 Selangor Constituencies Same DUN but separated by land and sea
    16. 16. 16 N45 SELAT KELANG Same DUN but separated by land and sea
    17. 17. 17 Four evenly matched districts Redrawing of boundaries to give three-district advantage to Party 2 All districts produce an even voting ratio for each party District A,B,C votes 90% for Party 2 District D votes 90% for Party 1 Party 1 Party 2 SOURCE: http://www.comprofessor.com/2010/10/gerrymandering-through-corporate.html
    18. 18. 18 One Voter One Vote ? Question: Do the Chinese & Indians decide for a simple majority? Courtesy of the famous retiree: Ng CN
    19. 19. 19 DESIGN: 1st 112 seats: 1.85 million. 2008, BN contested 139 seats to win 112 seats. 2.08 million votes required (19%). Total voter population: 10,922,140 Total Parliament seats: 222 Simple majority: 112 seats Do you agree that 2 million can decide for 28 million?
    20. 20. 21 The smallest 112 seats come from: Sabah, incl Labuan: 26, Sarawak: 25, Johor: 13, Perak: 12, Pahang: 8, (Peninsular Malaysia: 61) For simple majority rule, rural Bumis decide. Only for 2/3 majority, the non-Bumis have a say! (Show Sabah & Sarawak powerpoint) Seats can be increased after Mar 2011 but need 2/3 majority. BN can even create 200 Putrajayas!
    21. 21. 22 Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 1 - 28 13 = Sarawak 12 = Sabah Majority Sabah & Sarawak
    22. 22. 23 Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 29 - 56
    23. 23. 24 Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 57 - 84
    24. 24. 25 Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 85 - 112
    25. 25. 26 Point No. 1: BN cannot lose. Is that the reason we have such blatant corruption and inequality? Is it a coincidence that the poorest groups with the worst infrastructure, education and health-care facilities, are the king-makers? Is it a coincidence that the natives are driven off their land to join the urban poor?
    26. 26. 27 It’s good to belong to the Ruling Class! States with the highest incidence of poverty: Sabah & Sarawak
    27. 27. 28 Results of not paying attention: Ruling Party enjoyed 2/3 majority for more than 50 years since 1957. Consequences: 700 Constitutional amendments since 1957. Compare with US, 234 years old: Only 27 Constitutional amendments. Answer: You have to avoid a 2/3 majority to prevent too much power in the hands of the Ruling Party.
    28. 28. 29 21-06-1962, Constitutional Amendment: Article 116: Safeguard to maintain voter difference to less than 15% removed. Clauses (3), (4) and (5): Clauses were repealed by Act 14/1962, sub-section 22 (c) Source: (page 197) http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/--- ilo_aids/documents/legaldocument/wcms_125966.pdf
    29. 29. 36
    30. 30. 37 Politics Economics Social
    31. 31. 38 Politics Economics Social They start looking for alternatives!
    32. 32. CIVIL UNREST: When the poor are hungry and angry, they have nothing left to lose ! 39
    33. 33. EGYPT 40
    34. 34. 41
    35. 35. 42
    36. 36. 43 Do we want this? No!
    37. 37. 44 WE GO BANKRUPT BY 2013!
    38. 38. 45 BONDS: Thompson Reuters Eikon DOMESTIC DEBT: Treasury Report GLC’s: Annual Accounts CAUTION: There may be some double-counting due to obscurity of some of the figures in the Treasury Report. GLC & Domestic Debt Analysis: Credit to Lee Wee Tak
    39. 39. 46 NATIONAL DEBT – Govt Bonds USD 179.8 B 13.01.2011 USD 44B rolled over last year!
    40. 40. 47 Screenshot of Thomson Reuters Eikon
    41. 41. 48 NATIONAL DEBT – GLC’s USD 19.5 Billion GLC: Govt- linked cos USD Million
    42. 42. 49 DOMESTIC DEBT USD 125.9 Billion USD 136 B : 57% Debt/GDP 31st Dec In 3 ½ years, domestic debt has gone up by 70%!
    43. 43. 50 TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B Countries that collapsed at Debt/GDP: Ireland, Dec 2010: 96% Greece, May 2010: 134% Malaysia 144% Jun 2011: 144%!
    44. 44. 51 TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM?
    45. 45. 53 CAN IT GET WORSE? Debt/GDP: 139%, annual deficit: 4 – 5% Operating expenditure eats up all revenue & pensions depend on current income. How can the Govt afford giving out RM 500 per head? What’s the source?
    46. 46. 54 RM 200 vouchers for 1.3 million students: RM 260 million, One-off RM 100 aid each to 5.3 million students: RM 530 million. RM 500 for 3.4 million households: RM 1.8 billion, Civil servants increment 7% - 13%, Money given today will be taken back via GST tomorrow – Anil Netto: Atimes
    47. 47. 55 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% Bureaucracy as % of Population 1.4 M Civil Servants, 3 M RELA = 4.4 M How long can this go on? Problem: Low productivity, poor work attitude, corrupt, entitlement-mentality. Does a change of govt solve these problems?
    48. 48. 56 WHAT ARE THE PIIGS ? P: Portugal I: Ireland I: Italy G: Greece S: Spain
    49. 49. 57 WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PIIGS DEFAULT ? • THEY GET SLAUGHTERED ! • Bond yields shoot sky-high • Is that Malaysia’s fate ?
    50. 50. 58 GREECE • Bond-buyers have to take a hair-cut ! In late October 2011, euro-zone governments called on Greece to secure a 50% write-down on the debt held by private creditors. Greece offered 25% only. Must charge very high interest to compensate – more than 100%! Source: Wallstreet Journal
    51. 51. 59 • We have oil palm! • We have oil & gas! • We have electronics & electricals! • We have high savings rate – EPF! BUT MALAYSIA IS DIFFERENT !
    52. 52. 60 In 2009, Robert Kuok was forced to sell off his sugar monopoly to some “businessmen”. Don’t mess with Robert !Kuok. How has it hurt us? • Robert Kuok invested in the world’s largest sugar mill in Australia. Our international sugar price went up.
    53. 53. 61 SUGAR PRICE International sugar price goes down World price dropped but domestic price went up by 40%! Why ?
    54. 54. 62 Oil palm: Najib asked China to increase oil palm import from Malaysia but no deal. • Why? • Robert Kuok’s Arowana Cooking Oil controls 40% of China domestic oil palm refining • Then Robert Kuok decided to invest USD 10 B in Indonesia oil palm. That’s our lowest-cost competitor! Will it hurt us? Blowback from grab of Robert Kuok’s sugar business in Malaysia (click to see link)
    55. 55. 63 • We become net importer by 2014, 2015! • Govt demanding more and more money from Petronas. • Petronas tried to stop the outflow. • So previous CEO forced out & replaced with Najib nominee. • Ex-CEO now working for Singapore. BUT WE STILL HAVE OIL & GAS.
    56. 56. 64 • This depends on foreign countries. • Europe is in serious trouble. • So’s the US. • Even China is having a housing bubble and if her exports are hit for her biggest market (Europe), she will import less from Malaysia. • Outlook does not look good. WHAT ABOUT ELECTRONICS & ELECTRICALS?
    57. 57. 65 NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO CHINA ! Property crashing - Chinese ghost town: http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/1928-China-Crash-Coming-China-That-Urban-Empty- Feeling?highlight=china+ghost+cities
    58. 58.  The soft landing view foresees Chinese central technocrats responding timely with well-calibrated fiscal and monetary policies that maintain GDP growth of around 8%, the annual rate Beijing must achieve to absorb new graduates into the work force and keep unemployment manageable. 66
    59. 59.  The hard landing scenario predicts that an uncontrolled implosion of the property market will unleash waves of wealth destruction, a credit crunch and consumption collapse that no amount of government intervention will be able to meaningfully forestall.  Southeast Asia will inevitably be among the worst hit by a soft or hard landing in China. http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/ML 22Ae02.html 67
    60. 60. 68 • Malaysia cannot borrow cheaply from international market as we are in the same situation as Greece. • So they tap into EPF for cheap funding. • By now 60% is gone! • That’s our retirement savings! OUR GOOD OLD EPF WILL SAVE US ! Don’t feel bad. Govts do this as a matter of routine when they get into trouble. http://malaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/EPF-in- Trouble2.pdf
    61. 61. 69 IMPLICATIONS: INTERNATIONAL BAILOUT Greece outlook: Look at Greece’s situation • Expulsion from EU, • New currency with massive devaluation, • Job loss, • Drop in wages, • Sale of state assets, • Cost-cutting – pensions, subsidies, civil service, welfare aid, govt services,
    62. 62. 70 • Petronas, banks and insurance cos forced to buy low interest Govt bonds, • Equivalent loans from international market will exceed 10% interest, LOCAL IMPLICATIONS http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/civil- servants-fear-losing-jobs-in-iwk-restructure/ Restructuring and down-sizing Govt, slash pensions, subsidies, govt services.
    63. 63. 71 DO THE BUSINESS PEOPLE KNOW? RM 39,000/person! Highest in the world per capita! GFI reports that Malaysia lost USD 338 Billion (RM 1.08 trillion) from year 2000 – 2009. 5th largest in the world!
    64. 64. 72 How much is RM 1.08 Trillion? RM 100 notes stacked all the way from Singapore to Phuket! For the smallest 112 seats, each voter lost RM 73,000 Equal 75% of US Govt’s gold in Fort Knox!
    65. 65. 73 Equal to RM 100 notes stacked all the way from Singapore to Phuket! Capital flight RM 150 B in 2009, 24% of GDP ! Where did this money come from ? 3 x KL MRT RM 250,000/family ! Watch out for a currency crash!
    66. 66. 74
    67. 67. 75
    68. 68. An Amah in 1970 earned more than a Graduate today?!!0.39 0.4 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 1970 Amah 2010 Graduate Monthly Salary (oz of gold) 1970 Amah 2010 Graduate 0.426 0.476 oz
    69. 69. CASHING OUT ! PUSHING MALAYSIA TO BANKRUPTCY ! DO OUR LEADERS KNOW ?
    70. 70. 78 Never mind, they will find some suckers in the KLSE to buy their shares during listing. Lim Teck Ghee warning. FELDA: Dr. Tan Kee Kwong, ex-Dep Min of Primary Industries: In 2001, FELDA had RM 4.5B cash. They should make RM 2 B per year. By 2011 they should have RM 25B cash. Instead, they owe EPF RM 6.5 B. Why ?
    71. 71. 79 KL MRT 12 times cost of Beijing – Shanghai High Speed Train. Not economical – sure bankrupt.
    72. 72. 80 KLIA2: COST JUMPED FROM RM 1.6 B TO RM 3.9 B WITH 1 YEAR DELAY !
    73. 73. 81 • Sg Besi Airport land, worth RM 5.2 B but sold for only RM 1.6 B !
    74. 74. 82 • Regain 2/3 majority to shore up power, • Put all the laws in place to control dissent, • Push country to bankruptcy. • Bring IMF in to do the dirty work, • Millions lose their jobs, • Civil servants chopped by 2/3, WHAT’S THE PLAN?
    75. 75. 84 • Public Assembly Bill passed to prepare for repression by the police PREPARING FOR UNREST ! As law-abiding citizens, it is our duty to obey the law. Let all Malaysians stay home for 1 week!
    76. 76. 85 1st JAN 2012: START OF POLICE STATE ? UPSI 01.01.12: The president of undergraduate movement Bebas, Muhammad Safwan Anang taken to Slim River hospital in critical condition
    77. 77. 86 EVENTS OUTSIDE OUR CONTROL • SOVEREIGN DEFAULT: • Italy, • Greece, • Spain, • France, • UK, • US, • China
    78. 78. 87 WHAT ARE THE DANGERS ? • Banks or bank holidays, • Capital control, • Commercial property & housing, • Borrowings and high-gearing for businesses, • Mortgages for speculative investments, • Shares, • Mutual funds, • EPF. • Police State
    79. 79. 88 Bank Runs
    80. 80. 89 NEW MALAYSIAN EXPORT: MAIDS & LABOUR Maybe to Indonesia!
    81. 81. 90 HYPER- INFLATION Zimbabwe, Nov 2007: USD 1 = Zimbabwe Dollars 1 million. 1 year later, it was ZDR 250 billion!
    82. 82. Where Will We End Up?? 1. Uneven development along group lines, 2. Criminalization &/or delegitimisation of the State, 3. Progressive deterioration of public services, 4. Widespread violation of human rights, 5. Security apparatus as “state within a state”, 6. Rise of factionalised elites 7. Demographic pressures, 8. Massive amount of refugees, 9. Legacy of vengeance-seeking groups over past grievances, 10. Chronic & sustained human flight, 11. Sharp & severe economic decline, 12. Intervention of other states or external factors. 12 FACTORS OF A FAILED STATE. WE ARE HALF-WAY THERE
    83. 83. 92 30 STAGES OF COLLAPSE Public Assembly Bill IMF
    84. 84. 93 IS THERE HOPE ? 1. When nearing bankruptcy... • A country’s best chance of survival is for foreign investors to bring money in. • Will they come in if its management is corrupt? 2. Do you want to hold corrupt leaders to account? 3. There are 198 non-violent methods – http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations/org/ 198_methods-1.pdf
    85. 85. 94For simplification: Use mental models! 1ST UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEM Study tindakmalaysia.com: • History • Religion • Psychology • Social • Trends • Finance & economics • Politics • Strategies of non-violent self-defense
    86. 86. 95 (Shrinking) (expanding)
    87. 87. 96 UMNO Rebels
    88. 88. 97
    89. 89.  ATTORNEY GENERAL’S OFFICE  ELECTION COMMISSION (EC/SPR)  IMMIGRATION DEPT  INLAND REVENUE BOARD (IRB)  JAKIM/MUIS  JUDICIARY  MACC  MILITARY INTELLIGENCE/UNIT TINDAKAN KHAS (UTK)  POLICE/SPECIAL BRANCH  RELA  ROS 98
    90. 90.  SYSTEM DEPENDS ON CASH-FLOW  LOYALTY ISTO MONEY  SYSTEM BREAKS DOWNWHEN CASH-FLOW STOPS 99
    91. 91. 100 HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN ? Leverage 100x 4 million foreigners Are banks safe? Are jobs safe? http://www.imi.gov.my/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=524%3Ajumlah-statistik-pekerja-asing-sah-dan-pati- yang-telah-didaftarkan-menerusi-program-6p-sehingga-18-ogos-2011&catid=1%3Aberita-terkini&lang=bm
    92. 92. 101 POLITICS SOCIAL ECONOMICS X STARVE THE BEAST ? ?
    93. 93. 102 SYSTEM RESTS ON CONFIDENCE ! CONFIDENCE &TRUST
    94. 94. 103 WHAT WE NEED ! The US: A depression does a lot of good. It wipes out bad investments and eliminates bad speculators. It forces capital into more productive, more profitable uses. It kills off zombie industries. It retires worn-out industries and reduces costs so that new industries can arise. It’s the ‘destruction’ that Schumpeter’s ‘creative destruction’ needs. Solution for US Debt: http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/4259-NIANswers- FAQ?p=11708#post11708 Same for Malaysia. We cannot ignore the laws of economics for too long.
    95. 95. 104 2013 - Economic cycle: 50 – 60 years ! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kondratieff_Wave.svg
    96. 96. HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ? • Bank savings: Convert to gold bullion, • Pensions: Withdraw if possible, • Stocks and mutual funds: Sell all, • Insurance: Give it up, • Taxes: Minimize exposure through incorporation, • Commercial property: Sell, 105
    97. 97. 106 HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ? • Stock up on essentials & dried-food, • Food-growing land – move to the countryside! • Housing: Sell. Keep only 1 to stay, • Businesses: Minimize loans, • Life-style: Cut down on expenditure, • Financial: Reduce debt, • Barter trade
    98. 98. 107 PREPARING FOR A HARSH FUTURE • Don’t accept whatever is said today. • Do you own due diligence. • Monitor future events carefully and compare with what is said today to see if it makes sense. • Use the knowledge wisely to protect yourselves, your family & your friends. • Help one another. • Our best protection is National Unity.
    99. 99. 108 FURTHER READING Banking & debt, simply-explained. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM&featur e=player_embedded Teh Chi Chang’s analysis: The Budget & it’s Shadow. High Alert! http://thedailybell.com/Public/Files/High%20Alert%20- %203rd%20Edition(1).pdf 198 Ways To Bring Down A Dictatorship. **** PACABA 0 Thread & Tindakmalaysia.com ****
    100. 100. 109 JoinTindak Malaysia Spread the word ! To be free: Understand psychological warfare, Mental revolution needed to take action. Join us. Learn self-defense techniques, Click the top yellow banner at tindakmalaysia.com, or email: pywong.tindakmalaysia@gmail.com
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