Tindak Malaysia: The Die Is Cast

Tindak Malaysia:Together we can make a difference 1

An assessment of the electoral & financial outlook for Malaysia.What the numbers tell us and whatconclusions to draw from it. 2

6 POINTS:1. BN cannot lose,2. They know they are in trouble.3. Their solution: push Malaysia into bankruptcy,4. IMF come in to clean up the mess. Blame IMF for problems later,5. New Rat Race System starts.6. You don’t have to believe a word that is said! 3

RATIONALE BEHIND TINDAKMALAYSIA.COMQuestions:1. Where are we?2. How did we get here?3. Where are we headed?4. How can we make it better? 4

A group of caring Malaysians carrying out community service through voter education and PACABA Training.Tindak Malaysia supports the reason why theElection Commission was formed - to ensureelections in Malaysia are free and fair.(Elections Act S 5 (1a)) EC has to enjoy public confidence. (FederalConstitution Article 114)

Our training is based on the election lawsand is politically-neutral.We are pro-Rakyat and accept any partythat is voted in freely and fairly.We believe that “Power Corrupts, AndAbsolute Power Corrupts Absolutely”.We take the position that there must bechecks and balances and that no oneparty should hold too much power.

• Mobile phone to silent mode,• Introduction,• Stickers,• Outline of Programme and duration,• Expected results. 7

Tindak Malaysia strategy:• Understand the principles of psychological warfare,• How is it used against us?• Develop self-defense measures.Nations move in 50 to 60-year cycles!When politicians hold power for toolong, they become arrogant, bulliesand corrupt! The ABC’s of politics. 8

Their goal is to amass fortunes through all means,legal and illegal, live a life of luxury, and preserve theirdynasty in any way that they can (such as pamperedintelligence and military services, cadres of corruptcronies, discriminatory governance to divide thecitizenry, and costly foreign support).The result is that these countries have been financiallyplundered, with an inhospitable business climate, anunderdeveloped private sector and little economic andsocial progress.http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ML22Ak02.htmlWhere is this place?Middle –east! 9

Politics Economics Social 10

Politics Social Economics BN CANNOT LOSE, ALTHOUGH BN WANTS THEPEOPLE TO BELIEVE THEY CAN LOSE! 11

WE NEED TO STUDY HISTORY ! Alliance Party/BN* Opposition TotalYear Seats % seats % vote Seats % seats % vote seats1959 74 71.15 51.7 30 28.85 48.3 1041964 89 85.58 58.5 15 14.42 41.5 1041969 95 65.97 49.3 49 34.03 50.7 1441974 135 87.66 60.7 19 12.34 39.3 1541978 130 84.42 57.2 24 15.58 42.8 1541982 132 85.71 60.5 22 14.29 39.5 1541986 148 83.62 55.8 29 16.38 41.5 1771990 127 70.55 53.4 53 29.45 46.6 1801995 162 84.38 65.2 30 15.62 34.8 1921999 148 76.68 56.5 45 23.32 43.5 1932004 198 90.41 63.9 21 9.59 36.1 2192008 140 62.61 52.2 82 36.93 47.8 222 12

BN PR 140 MPs (63.1%)  82 MPs (36.9%) 8 states  5 states 50.27 % of votes  46.75 % of votes http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_general_election,_2008

Putra Jaya (BN) Kapar (PKR) Smallest Largest 6608 voters 112,224 voters Voters ratio = 1:17Even the 2nd smallest seat, Lawas, has 15,717, which is 2.4 times larger!

Selangor Constituencies Same DUN butseparated by land and sea 15 15

N45 SELAT KELANG Same DUN but separated by land and sea 16

Redrawing of boundaries to give Four evenly matched districts three-district advantage to Party 2 All districts produce an even voting District A,B,C votes 90% for Party 2 ratio for each party District D votes 90% for Party 1 Party 1 Party 2 17SOURCE: http://www.comprofessor.com/2010/10/gerrymandering-through-corporate.html

One Voter One Vote ?Question: Do theChinese & Indiansdecide for asimple majority? 18 Courtesy of the famous retiree: Ng CN

Total voter population: 10,922,140Total Parliament seats: 222Simple majority: 112 seatsDESIGN: 1st 112 seats: 1.85 million.2008, BN contested 139 seats to win112 seats. 2.08 million votes required(19%).Do you agree that 2 million can decidefor 28 million? 19

The smallest 112 seats come from:Sabah, incl Labuan: 26,Sarawak: 25,Johor: 13,Perak: 12,Pahang: 8,(Peninsular Malaysia: 61)For simple majority rule, rural Bumis decide. Only for2/3 majority, the non-Bumis have a say!(Show Sabah & Sarawak powerpoint)Seats can be increased after Mar 2011 butneed 2/3 majority. BN can even create 200Putrajayas! 21

Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 1 - 2813 =Sarawak Majority Sabah & Sarawak12 =Sabah 22

Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 29 - 56 23

Point No. 1: BN cannot lose.Is that the reason we have such blatantcorruption and inequality?Is it a coincidence that the poorestgroups with the worst infrastructure,education and health-care facilities,are the king-makers?Is it a coincidence that the natives aredriven off their land to join the urbanpoor? 26

It‟s good to belong to the Ruling Class!States with the highest incidenceof poverty: Sabah & Sarawak 27

Results of not paying attention:Ruling Party enjoyed 2/3 majority formore than 50 years since 1957.Consequences: 700 Constitutionalamendments since 1957.Compare with US, 234 years old: Only 27Constitutional amendments.Answer: You have to avoid a 2/3 majorityto prevent too much power in the handsof the Ruling Party. 28

21-06-1962, Constitutional Amendment:Article 116: Safeguard to maintain voterdifference to less than 15% removed.Clauses (3), (4) and (5): Clauses wererepealed by Act 14/1962, sub-section 22(c)Source: (page 197)http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/---ilo_aids/documents/legaldocument/wcms_125966.pdf 29

Politics Economics Social 37

Politics Social They start looking Economics for alternatives! 38

CIVIL UNREST: When the poor are hungryand angry, they have nothing left to lose ! 39

EGYPT 40

Do we want this? No! 43

WE GO BANKRUPT BY 2013! 44

BONDS: Thompson Reuters Eikon GLC’s: Annual Accounts DOMESTIC DEBT: Treasury Report CAUTION: There may be some double-counting due to obscurity of some of the figures in the Treasury Report.GLC & Domestic Debt Analysis: Credit to Lee Wee Tak 45

NATIONAL 13.01.2011 DEBT – USD 44B rolled over last year!Govt BondsUSD 179.8 B 46

Screenshot of Thomson Reuters Eikon 47

NATIONAL DEBT – GLC’s USD MillionGLC: Govt-linked cos USD 19.5 Billion 48

DOMESTIC DEBT 31st Dec In 3 ½ years, domestic debt has gone up by 70%! USD 136 B :USD 125.9 Billion 57% Debt/GDP 49

TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 BCountriesthatcollapsed atDebt/GDP:Ireland, Dec2010: 96%Greece, May2010: 134%Malaysia144% Jun 2011: 144%! 50

TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 BWHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM? 51

CAN IT GET WORSE?Debt/GDP: 139%, annual deficit: 4 – 5%Operating expenditure eats up all revenue & pensions depend on current income.How can the Govt afford giving out RM 500 per head? What‟s the source? 53

RM 200 vouchers for 1.3 million students: RM 260 million,One-off RM 100 aid each to 5.3 millionstudents: RM 530 million.RM 500 for 3.4 million households: RM1.8 billion,Civil servants increment 7% - 13%,Money given today will be taken back viaGST tomorrow – Anil Netto: Atimes 54

Bureaucracy as % of Population How long can this go16.00%14.00% on?12.00% 1.4 M Civil Servants, Problem: Low10.00% 3 M RELA = 4.4 M productivity, poor work8.00% attitude, corrupt, entitle6.00% ment-mentality. Does a4.00% change of govt solve2.00%0.00% these problems? 55

WHAT ARE THE PIIGS ? P: Portugal I: Ireland I: Italy G: Greece S: Spain 56

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PIIGS DEFAULT ?• THEY GET SLAUGHTERED !• Bond yields shoot sky-high• Is that Malaysia’s fate ? 57

GREECE• Bond-buyers have to take a hair-cut !In late October 2011, euro-zonegovernments called on Greece to securea 50% write-down on the debt held byprivate creditors. Greece offered 25%only.Must charge very high interest tocompensate – more than 100%!Source: Wallstreet Journal 58

BUT MALAYSIA IS DIFFERENT !• We have oil palm!• We have oil & gas!• We have electronics & electricals!• We have high savings rate – EPF! 59

In 2009, Robert Kuok was forced to selloff his sugar monopoly to some“businessmen”. Don‟t mess with Robert !Kuok. How has it hurt us?• Robert Kuok invested in the world‟s largest sugar mill in Australia. Our international sugar price went up. 60

SUGAR PRICEWorld price dropped but Why ?domestic price went up by 40%! International sugar price goes down 61

Oil palm: Najib asked China to increase oil palmimport from Malaysia but no deal.• Why?• Robert Kuok‟s Arowana Cooking Oil controls 40% of China domestic oil palm refining• Then Robert Kuok decided to investUSD 10 B in Indonesia oil palm. That‟s ourlowest-cost competitor! Will it hurt us? Blowback from grab of Robert Kuok‟s sugar business in Malaysia (click to see link) 62

BUT WE STILL HAVE OIL & GAS.• We become net importer by 2014, 2015!• Govt demanding more and more money from Petronas.• Petronas tried to stop the outflow.• So previous CEO forced out & replaced with Najib nominee.• Ex-CEO now working for Singapore. 63

WHAT ABOUT ELECTRONICS & ELECTRICALS?• This depends on foreign countries.• Europe is in serious trouble.• So‟s the US.• Even China is having a housing bubble and if her exports are hit for her biggest market (Europe), she will import less from Malaysia.• Outlook does not look good. 64

NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO CHINA !Property crashing - Chinese ghost town:http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/1928-China-Crash-Coming-China-That-Urban-Empty-Feeling?highlight=china+ghost+cities 65

 The soft landing view foresees Chinese central technocrats responding timely with well-calibrated fiscal and monetary policies that maintain GDP growth of around 8%, the annual rate Beijing must achieve to absorb new graduates into the work force and keep unemployment manageable. 66

 The hard landing scenario predicts that an uncontrolled implosion of the property market will unleash waves of wealth destruction, a credit crunch and consumption collapse that no amount of government intervention will be able to meaningfully forestall. Southeast Asia will inevitably be among the worst hit by a soft or hard landing in China.http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/ML22Ae02.html 67

OUR GOOD OLD EPF WILL SAVE US !• Malaysia cannot borrow cheaply from international market as we are in the same situation as Greece.• So they tap into EPF for cheap funding.• By now 60% is gone!• That‟s our retirement savings!Don’t feel bad. Govts do this as a matter of routine when theyget into trouble.http://malaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/EPF-in-Trouble2.pdf 68

IMPLICATIONS: INTERNATIONAL BAILOUTGreece outlook: Look at Greece‟s situation• Expulsion from EU,• New currency with massive devaluation,• Job loss,• Drop in wages,• Sale of state assets,• Cost-cutting – pensions, subsidies, civil service, welfare aid, govt services, 69

LOCAL IMPLICATIONS• Petronas, banks and insurance cos forced to buy low interest Govt bonds,• Equivalent loans from international market will exceed 10% interest,http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/civil-servants-fear-losing-jobs-in-iwk-restructure/Restructuring and down-sizingGovt, slash pensions, subsidies, govtservices. 70

DO THE BUSINESS PEOPLE KNOW? GFI reports that Malaysia lost USD 338 Billion (RM 1.08 trillion) from year 2000 – 2009. 5th largest in the world!RM 39,000/person!Highest in the world per capita! 71

How much is RM 1.08 Trillion?RM 100 notesstacked all the wayfrom Singapore toPhuket! Equal 75% of US Govt‟s gold in Fort Knox!For the smallest 112 seats,each voter lost RM 73,000 72

Capital flight RM 150 B in 2009, 24% of GDP !Equal to RM 100 Where did thisnotes stacked all money come from ?the way from 3 x KL MRTSingapore toPhuket! RM 250,000/family ! Watch out for a currency crash! 73

Monthly Salary (oz of gold)0.48 0.476 oz0.470.460.45 1970 Amah0.440.43 0.426 20100.42 Graduate0.41 An Amah in 1970 earned 0.4 more than a Graduate0.39 1970 Amah 2010 Graduate today?!!

DO OUR LEADERS KNOW ? CASHING OUT ! PUSHING MALAYSIA TO BANKRUPTCY !

FELDA:Dr. Tan Kee Kwong, ex-Dep Min of PrimaryIndustries: In 2001, FELDA had RM 4.5Bcash. They should make RM 2 B per year.By 2011 they should have RM 25B cash.Instead, they owe EPF RM 6.5 B. Why ?Never mind, they will find some suckers in the KLSEto buy their shares during listing.Lim Teck Ghee warning. 78

KL MRT 12 times cost ofBeijing – Shanghai High Speed Train.Not economical – sure bankrupt. 79

KLIA2: COST JUMPED FROM RM 1.6 B TO RM 3.9 B WITH 1 YEAR DELAY ! 80

• Sg Besi Airport land, worth RM 5.2 B but sold for only RM 1.6 B ! 81

WHAT‟S THE PLAN?• Regain 2/3 majority to shore up power,• Put all the laws in place to control dissent,• Push country to bankruptcy.• Bring IMF in to do the dirty work,• Millions lose their jobs,• Civil servants chopped by 2/3, 82

PREPARING FOR UNREST !• Public Assembly Bill passed to prepare for repression by the policeAs law-abiding citizens, it is our duty to obey the law. Let all Malaysians stay home for 1 week! 84

1st JAN 2012: START OF POLICE STATE ?UPSI 01.01.12: The president of undergraduate movement Bebas, MuhammadSafwan Anang taken to Slim River hospital in critical condition 85

EVENTS OUTSIDE OUR CONTROL• SOVEREIGN DEFAULT:• Italy,• Greece,• Spain,• France,• UK,• US,• China 86

WHAT ARE THE DANGERS ?• Banks or bank holidays,• Capital control,• Commercial property & housing,• Borrowings and high-gearing for businesses,• Mortgages for speculative investments,• Shares,• Mutual funds,• EPF.• Police State 87

Bank Runs 88

NEWMALAYSIAN EXPORT: MAIDS & LABOUR Maybe to Indonesia! 89

HYPER- INFLATIONZimbabwe, Nov2007: USD 1 =Zimbabwe Dollars1 million.1 year later, it wasZDR 250 billion! 90

12 FACTORS OF We End Up?? Where Will A FAILED STATE. WE ARE HALF-WAY THERE1. Uneven development along group lines,2. Criminalization &/or delegitimisation of the State,3. Progressive deterioration of public services,4. Widespread violation of human rights,5. Security apparatus as “state within a state”,6. Rise of factionalised elites7. Demographic pressures,8. Massive amount of refugees,9. Legacy of vengeance-seeking groups over past grievances,10. Chronic & sustained human flight,11. Sharp & severe economic decline,12. Intervention of other states or external factors.

30 STAGES OF COLLAPSE Public Assembly Bill IMF 92

IS THERE HOPE ?1. When nearing bankruptcy...• A country‟s best chance of survival is for foreign investors to bring money in.• Will they come in if its management is corrupt?2. Do you want to hold corrupt leaders toaccount?3. There are 198 non-violent methods –http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations/org/198_methods-1.pdf 93

1ST UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEMStudy tindakmalaysia.com:• History• Religion• Psychology• Social• Trends• Finance & economics• Politics• Strategies of non-violent self-defenseFor simplification: Use mental models! 94

(Shrinking)(expanding) 95

UMNORebels 96

 ATTORNEY GENERAL’S OFFICE ELECTION COMMISSION (EC/SPR) IMMIGRATION DEPT INLAND REVENUE BOARD (IRB) JAKIM/MUIS JUDICIARY MACC MILITARY INTELLIGENCE/UNIT TINDAKAN KHAS (UTK) POLICE/SPECIAL BRANCH RELA ROS 98

 SYSTEM DEPENDS ON CASH-FLOW LOYALTY IS TO MONEY SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN WHEN CASH-FLOW STOPS 99

HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN ? Leverage 100x Are banks safe? 4 million foreigners Are jobs safe?http://www.imi.gov.my/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=524%3Ajumlah-statistik-pekerja-asing-sah-dan-pati-yang-telah-didaftarkan-menerusi-program-6p-sehingga-18-ogos-2011&catid=1%3Aberita-terkini&lang=bm 100

POLITICS SOCIALSTARVETHE ?BEAST X ? ECONOMICS 101

SYSTEM RESTS ON CONFIDENCE ! CONFIDENCE & TRUST 102

WHAT WE NEED !The US: A depression does a lot of good.It wipes out bad investments and eliminates bad speculators.It forces capital into more productive, more profitable uses.It kills off zombie industries.It retires worn-out industries and reduces costs so that newindustries can arise.It‟s the „destruction‟ that Schumpeter‟s „creative destruction‟needs.Solution for US Debt:http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/4259-NIANswers-FAQ?p=11708#post11708Same for Malaysia.We cannot ignore the laws of economics for too long. 103

2013 - Economic cycle: 50 – 60 years !http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kondratieff_Wave.svg 104

HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?• Bank savings: Convert to gold bullion,• Pensions: Withdraw if possible,• Stocks and mutual funds: Sell all,• Insurance: Give it up,• Taxes: Minimize exposure through incorporation,• Commercial property: Sell, 105

HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?• Housing: Sell. Keep only 1 to stay,• Businesses: Minimize loans,• Life-style: Cut down on expenditure,• Financial: Reduce debt,• Stock up on essentials & dried-food,• Food-growing land – move to the countryside!• Barter trade 106

PREPARING FOR A HARSH FUTURE• Don‟t accept whatever is said today.• Do you own due diligence.• Monitor future events carefully and compare with what is said today to see if it makes sense.• Use the knowledge wisely to protect yourselves, your family & your friends.• Help one another.• Our best protection is National Unity. 107

FURTHER READINGBanking & debt, simply-explained.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM&feature=player_embeddedTeh Chi Chang‟s analysis: The Budget & it‟s Shadow.High Alert!http://thedailybell.com/Public/Files/High%20Alert%20-%203rd%20Edition(1).pdf198 Ways To Bring Down A Dictatorship.**** PACABA 0 Thread & Tindakmalaysia.com **** 108

Join Tindak MalaysiaTo be free:Understand psychological warfare,Mental revolution needed to take action.Join us. Learn self-defense techniques,Click the top yellow banner attindakmalaysia.com, or email:pywong.tindakmalaysia@gmail.com Spread the word ! 109

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Tindak Malaysia: The Die Is Cast

by palmdoc on Jan 09, 2012

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