China relations with developing countries
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China relations with developing countries



china with developing countries

china with developing countries



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    China relations with developing countries China relations with developing countries Presentation Transcript

    • China’s Economic Relations with Developing Countries Barbara Stallings Brown University December 12, 2007
    • Agenda for Presentation
      • Introduction
      • Characteristics of Chinese economy
      • Statistical overview of China’s relations with developing countries
      • Regional sketches
      • Conclusions
    • Introduction
      • Joint venture with two colleagues
      • Importance of topic
      • Increased role of China as partner for developing countries in last decade
      • Vast differences across regions
      • Opportunities and challenges
    • Five Characteristics of China’s Economy
      • Very high growth in very large economy
      • Output structure (dominance of industry)
      • Sources of growth (investment, exports)
      • Major role of FDI in China
      • Changing composition of trade
      • Possible changes going forward
    • Comparative GDP Growth
    • Exports and Imports (% GDP)
    • Sources of Growth (Output)
    • Sources of Growth (Demand)
    • Foreign Direct Investment
    • Composition of Trade Exports Imports
    • China and Developing Economies
      • Main positive contributions
      • -- Imports provide markets
      • -- Positive price effects
      • -- Outward FDI, aid provide funds
      • Problematic elements
      • -- Exports provide competition
      • -- Price effects in reverse
      • -- Inward FDI may crowd out others
    • Chinese Imports by Region
    • Developing Country Exports to China
    • China as Source of Growth
    • China’s Import Characteristics
    • China’s Inward FDI (Flows)
    • China’s Outward FDI (Stock)
    • China and Northeast Asia
      • Most advantageous position; high development; leading role in Asia
      • Export capital goods and FDI to China
      • Import consumer goods
      • Successful, but concerned re future
      • Strategies: alter division of labor? global strategy
    • China and ASEAN (5)
      • Medium development level; also integrated into Asian production
      • Most vulnerable group at present: direct competition with China in low- to-medium skill goods and FDI
      • Strategy:
      • -- Upgrade skills
      • -- Speed up ASEAN regional integration
      • -- Deepen alliance with Japan
    • China and Africa
      • Much less developed; blame colonial past; welcome China as new kind of partner
      • Export raw materials; import industrial goods
      • Investment and aid to support exports
      • Many fewer concerns about China, but some worries about domestic industry
    • China and Latin America
      • Development level similar to ASEAN, but geography, history very different
      • Commodity exports to China and industrial imports; fears re both
      • FDI: some competition, some inflows
      • Strategy options similar to ASEAN
    • Conclusions (1)
      • China has very different impact across regions because of geography and development level of partners
      • Most positive cases: nearby countries that build on dynamic comparative advantage to take part in production chains and complement China on the high end of production
    • Conclusions (2)
      • Most problematic cases: countries that take part in arms length trade and compete on basis of static comparative advantage (commodities, low-skill goods)
      • Policies? We know many of the answers; problem is implementation
      • Education and training; investment and technology; infrastructure; finance
    • Conclusions (3)
      • Possible changes in China’s economy
      • Slow-down in growth?
      • Greater consumer orientation?
      • Impact on developing countries: winners and losers (location, sector)
      • Developing countries must seek greater expertise to make strategic decisions
    • China’s Economic Relations with Developing Countries Barbara Stallings Brown University December 12, 2007