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Urban foresight - Joe Ravetz - 15-09-11
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Urban foresight - Joe Ravetz - 15-09-11



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  • 1. Urban Foresight as a tool for Territorial Governance Thursday, 15 September 2011 Joe Ravetz Centre for Urban & Regional Ecology University of Manchester
  • 2. Contents
    • What is urban & urban foresight
    • Analysis – urban systems & urban intelligence
    • Applications
    • Conclusions
  • 3.
    • What is urban & urban foresight ??
  • 4. What is ‘urban’?
  • 5. What is ‘urban’?
  • 6. What is urban? ‘Deficit’ mythologies Wow so this is what really goes on – gamblers are playing Monopoly with the whole city And look at those poor people – scraping together their last few coins to hand over to the gambler man The stakes are high – you can double your money, but the next minute you can lose everything - houses, factories, offices, whole cities … all laid to waste Actually I don’t think they’re very happy about that…. they have to go hungry just so that the game can go on.
  • 7. What is urban? Multiple systems To play the REAL city game I think we need a Monopoly board with more layers... Firstly, the global circuit – elite investors fly in, place their bets, take the rewards, and run Then there’s what cities are supposed to do, in the circle of production and consumption – making stuff and selling it And for many the city is a place of security in buildings – they don’t move around so much But what really counts is the ‘moral economy’ – family, community, sense of doing the right thing Meanwhile the town hall tries to fix things and manage health & education, but money & power are very short... Lastly don’t forget that cities exist in a global ecology - at the moment not very happily
  • 8. 2. Analysis – urban intelligence & urban foresight
  • 9. Foresight & the urban case Foresight can be seen as a cycle of about 3 stages -
  • 10. Foresight & the urban case But in the urban case, these are often pulling in different directions Research & future studies agenda Strategic planning & management agenda Stakeholder & capacity building agenda
  • 11. Issues in urban foresight
    • Why is the 'urban‘ foresight / future studies different to other systems?
    • E.g.... energy / emissions studies are focused on technical factors (based on physics / engineering):
    • Urban ... not only about technical systems (landuse, buildings, etc), - but relationships (work-home, community / household, local / global, etc).
    • Urban systems – fragmented, incoherent, controlled by external forces
    • Urban governance – gap between political & other boundaries
    • Urban policy – often lacking the resources & levers of control:
    • Context – austerity, unemployment, social disorder, geo-political insecurity
  • 12. Synergicity & relational thinking
    • CONCEPT:
    • Synergicity – “collaborative capital” – co-evolutionary capacity for creative action, strategic thinking & shared intelligence. (i.e. ‘capacity to move towards synergy in working together & thinking together’).
    • METHOD:
    • Relational-Emergent Mapping (REM) for analysis of problems, & creative solutions.
    • ‘ relational’ systems – based on inter-connections and inter-dependency;
    • ‘ emergent’ systems – based on capacity for self-organization & co-evolution towards shared intelligence.
  • 13. Analysis: urban systems & interactions
    • many systems combine into an urban system.
    • Each has different drivers, actors, factors, etc.
    • Each can be supportive or destructive of other systems.
    • sustainable development comes with different systems working together in synergy .
    • E.g... social cohesion, inward investment, strong governance, ecological improvement, work together
    • Needs creative action, strategic thinking, shared intelligence
    Global-local financial system Urban fixed capital & infrastructure Urban social-cultural system Global-local ecology system Urban governance & services system Urban production – consumption system
  • 14. Multiple questions & component levels Discourse / worldviews / values Factors / themes Actors / stakeholders Sectors / places / policies ‘ Vectors’ / processes / interactions Factors / technology / regime Multiple interactions & modes of intelligence Relational emergent mapping for urban foresight Explore synergicity – capacity for co-evolution of creative action, strategic thinking, shared intelligence “ Why ” “ what” “ who” “ where” “ how” “ which” Ethical – value / morality Social - community / Technical – functional relations Political - power & institutional Economic – material
  • 15. Who / what / why levels STEEP levels External outputs / impacts “ INTELLIGENT ADAPTIVE SYSTEM” “ COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM” “ COMPLEX SYSTEM” Co-intelligence Co-evolution Co-production Co-dependency - Synergicity – capacity for emergence of creative action, strategic thinking & shared intelligence Shorter term pressure Longer term change Structural shifts External drivers / pressures / inputs RELATIONAL SYSTEM Robustness / resilience for shorter term Adaptive capacity for longer term Conscious & strategic innovation Responses & feedbacks Synergicity & relational thinking
  • 16. Foresight for synergicity
    • Processes -
    • Foresight futures strand – aims to enhance shared intelligence, shared learning etc ...
    • Foresight capacity strand – aims to enhance intellectual capital & synergy
    • Foresight strategy strand – aims to apply these to governance & policy (public / private / civic.. )
    • Results –
    • Multi-actor, multi-lateral, multi-level entrepreneurial action.... e.g. local partnerships, strategic networks
    • Creative responses to transitions and building of resilience & adaptive capacity
    • Creative entrepreneurial / participative mode of governance with strategic intelligence.
  • 17. 3. Applications
  • 18. Policy: hierarchical & technocratic: within defined units & sectors Public: fragmented & passive recipients Policy: responsive & inter-connected: multi-level & multi-functional Regulation system: 1-way information flow: (with occasional election feedback) Public: pro-active, entrepreneurial, resilient & self-organized Governance system - co-production of shared intelligence From - “ ORGANIZED GOVERNMENT” To - “SELF-ORGANIZING GOVERNANCE” Governance applications
  • 19. Local economy applications example of local food development scheme at
    • factors of success:
    • Space for creative action & debate
    • Public / private / social collaboration & investment
    • Multi-level self-organizing governance systems
    • Knowledge and learning networks
    • Innovation & enterprise culture
    • Policy intermediation and enabling of inter-mediaries
    Municipalities Education & health SMEs & tourism Local democracy Farmers Landscape owners & managers NGOs & social enterprise Local markets
  • 20. Environmental applications Mapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of displacement & disconnection (physical / economic / social / political) CITY CITY-REGION REGION
  • 21. Fossil fuel reserves and alternative conversions Energy conversion & power distribution Urban buildings & infrastructure as carbon sink Renewable resources, local & regional Bio-mass & bio-fuel energy Global atmosphere with carbon storage and climate balance Fossil fuel extraction industry – national / global Carbon embedded in goods & products Carbon stored / embedded in waste to landfill or recovery Carbon emissions responsibility via energy demand Carbon net trade balance of imports / exports Carbon sequestration in soil & biomass CITY CITY-REGION REGION Environmental applications Mapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of displacement & disconnection (physical / economic / social / political)
  • 22. Factors (SLE-wiki) Actors – (facebook) Places (PPGIS) Dynamics (Ebay etc) Discourse (youtube) Case study a) street home zone Local spatial analysis – opports / constraints Social forum on local needs & ideas Policy & practice review Value testing by virtual auction / priority choice Images / stories / media (external) Spatial design options & limits Social forum on options & priorities Investment testing with financial / social value auction Coordination with funding / other policy levels images / stories / media (newly created) Social forum on events / meetings / issues To external users Social investment - sale of certificates project go-ahead Social-tech platforms ICT applications
  • 23. Applications – “pathways” integrated multi-stakeholder socio-economic-political chains & cycles of added value: based on One Planet Economy Network programme for ecological transformation Public sector: stewardship & procurement pathways Financial sector: stakeholder capital pathways Science / technology sector: innovation pathway Business sector: integrated service chain pathway Community / non-profit sector: social enterprise pathway International development sector: fair trade pathway
  • 24. Applications - urban intelligence So this is eco-intelligence in action !! .. and how does it work? Ok but - who gets to decide on these connections - and who are the winners or losers? Basically it’s about connections. We connect between different parts of the ecological cycle. Then we connect these with different layers of the economic system. The whole city decides, in a deliberative eco-intelligence foresight network …. With this we can begin to reduce extreme differences of wealth and poverty, with a better balance of economic, social and ecological systems.
  • 25. 4. Conclusions
  • 26. Urban foresight in practice
    • GOALS - Shared intelligence – creative innovation networks: plus responsive structures & organizations
    • RESOURCES – emerging forms of network / ‘meshwork’ governance & investment
    • PROCESSES - Institutions, policies, programmes, to enable & promote creative innovation.
    • Coalition agenda has many challenges … hopefully some opportunities
    • ENTREPRENEURIAL FORESIGHT: looks for added value in social / ecological / financial innovation
    • PARTNERSHIP FORESIGHT : look for opportunities in ‘communities of interest’ - organizations & networks
    • SHARED INTELLIGENCE FORESIGHT: enhance functional information & learning for shared tasks: ( ICT /social tech can help…. )
  • 27. "Urban Foresight as a Tool to Help Decision-making"
    • 1. Comment peut-on aujourd'hui identifier des enjeux de long terme alors que nombreux sont ceux qui pensent que la difficulté de percevoir le changement lointain s'accroît ?
    •   2. Comment peut-on aujourd'hui construire des visions collectives pour un avenir commun dans des métropoles de plus en plus peuplées mais qui nous paraissent pourtant de plus en plus anonymes ?
    • 3. Comment peut-on aujourd'hui articuler ces enjeux de long terme et ces visions collectives pour construire des stratégies crédibles et appropriables par les grands décideurs ?
    • 1. Long term vs short term
    • Focus on futures / prospectives / wild cards to explore the dynamics of the short term.... Create multi-functional / multi-actor value chains which link short to long term
    • 2. Collective vs anonymous?
    • Creative thinking emerging from fragmented communities to find opportunities on multiple levels
    • 3. Grassroots vs higher levels?
    • urban foresight for collaborative strategy ... which builds value chains between decision-makers & others ... ‘meshworks ’ from networks.
  • 28.  
  • 29. Thank you... joined up thinking in progress Synergy city Pathways for shared intelligence in the global urban century “ World’s largest feasibility study” – linking spatial, economy, environment, society, governance. “ World’s largest organization strategy” – shared intelligence for the relational economy “ Environment and the City” - critical perspectives on the urban environment around the world
  • 30.  
  • 31. Actor view - consumer Synergy view Discourse / worldviews / values Factors / themes Actors / stakeholders Places / spaces ‘ Vectors’ / processes / opportunities Shared intelligence between actors / factors / sectors etc: e.g. awareness of shared interests between food consumers, producers, distributors etc Organic & local Fair trade Choice & diversity Food distribution / packaging regime Food cost decision making Quality / safety regime Community Personal Family Retailers Health / education Media Home environment Catering Shop / cook / eat lifestyle / eat / health Shopping environment Shared intelligence between parallel systems (e.g. employment, environment, health etc Shop / cook / eat Grow / produce / sell Monitor / analyse / regulate Investment & money flow Resource flow cycle Urban food foresight - synergicity / relational mapping
  • 32. Government Civic sector Social enterprise Community Consumers Tertiary services Secondary industry Primary resources Overseas trade & devmt Finance sector Science & technology Public services Institutional relationships Financial relationships NGOs provide auditing, accreditation & awareness raising to consumers Public procurement to kickstart markets & build critical mass Mobilization of R&D for pro-poor development & infrastructure Coordination with overseas NGOs / donors, economic partnerships, labour organizations etc. Sustainable resource management programme for all production Global carbon markets used to fund overseas sustainable rural development Retailers & distributors are key intermediaries between consumers & producers Innovative financial mechanisms to enable micro-finance etc Consumers enabled to drive the fair trade agenda for overseas producers Social enterprise promote ethical food culture & local counterparts, working with communities in health & education Social / cultural relationships Urban food foresight - synergicity / relational mapping