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Kourtit - Urban foresight - 15-09-2011
 

Kourtit - Urban foresight - 15-09-2011

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    Kourtit - Urban foresight - 15-09-2011 Kourtit - Urban foresight - 15-09-2011 Presentation Transcript

    • Peter Nijkamp and Karima Kourtit
    • develop a develop an effective balanced national turn mass population manage policy to ensure that the (or supra- movement towards sustainable design a spatially- benefits of national) strategy manage production accessibility integrated and balanced urban agglomerations and mobility agglomeration for emerging and investments to the urban land use strategy into new opportunities of urban advantages are higher connected city benefit of sustainable that is compatible with than their social costs systems economic design of fit-for- systems ecological sustainability/ through new development of urban purpose develop effective satisfy the socio- logistic and areas institutional measures for eco- economic demand ofneed for conflict management infrastructura mechanisms and friendly and an increasingly large and pro-active inclusions l concepts structures in a climate-neutral share of urban strategies for less privileged multi-layer metropolitan population for high- groups in urban areas dynamic system of areas quality urban urban areas amenities
    • STRIKING FACTS More than 50 percent of the world population already lives in urban areas: ‘the new urban century’ Double urbanization: big cities grow into mega-cities (including political power) and medium-sized cities grow even faster into big cities, e.g. China’s plan for Pearl River Delta Megacities: competitive advantages (opportunities for various stakeholders Santa Fe hypothesis (Geoffrey West) (‘15% rule’)  Urban scaling: efficiency and performance rise with city size (15 percent efficiency rise for doubling of cities) Need for strategic foresight studies to support policy and smart response (Prof. Ratcliffe)
    • EUROPEAN SMART RESPONSE TO THESE CHALLENGES:
    • manage develop a sustainable 6develop an effective balanced manage design a spatially- turn mass policy to ensure that national (or accessibility production and integrated and population the benefits of supra-national) and mobility investments to balanced urban movement agglomeration strategy for of urban the benefit of land use strategy towards urban advantages are emerging systems sustainable that is compatible agglomerations higher than their connected through new economic with ecological into new social costs city systems logistic and development sustainability opportunities infrastructu satisfy the socio- of urban areas ral concepts develop economic demand need for conflict effective management and pro- of an increasingly design of fit-for-purpose measures foractive inclusions strategies large share of institutional eco-friendly for less privileged urban population mechanisms and and climate- groups in urban areas for high-quality structures in a multi-layer neutral urban amenities dynamic system of urban metropolitan areas areas
    • Rethink and manage the increasing urban orientation and concentration of people in Europe, with the aim:• to sustain and enhance urban quality in cities as a place of vitality, liveability and spatial interactivity for European citizens• to create and exploit synergy from an urbanized Europe from an economic, social, cultural, logistic and technological perspective, leading to a strengthened global position of Europe
    • 9 Provides decision makers and the scientific community at large with research, development and demonstration road maps to achieve the short (2010), medium (2020) and long term (2040- 2050) goals of JPI Urban Europe plans Proposes a multifaceted but focused approach: it presents different interconnections and synergies between research areas. These interrelations between the different research domains reflect the wide range of different perspectives which have been incorporated due to the active participation of different stakeholders Elaboration on the four pivotal thematic areas of the JPI Urban Europe Vision, namely Society, Mobility, Ecology, and Economy and Innovation (which identify many specific research topics)
    • FOUR INTERRELATED PILLARS 10 INNOVATION & ECONOMIC VITALITY Society Ecology SOCIAL STRATEGY SMART LOGISTICSPARTICIPATION & & & VISION SUSTAINABLESOCIAL CAPITAL Economy MOBILITY Mobility & Innovation ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY Illustration of the interdependencies between the 4 Pillars of the SRA
    • 11 EUROPE CORNERSTONES CHALLENGES The Pioneer City 2050 SOCIETY: social participation & social capital The Connected City MOBILITY: 2050 smart logistics & sustainable mobility ECOLOGY: The Liveable Cityecological sustainability 2050 ECONOMY& INNOVATION: The Entrepreneurial economic vitality City 2050
    • Urban Images 2050
    • 4 PILLARS & 4 URBAN IMAGES 2050
    • RESEARCH IDEASOriginating from experts and stakeholders: • Visioning workshop (Vienna) • Scoping and SRA workshop (Amsterdam)Digital • Research Landscape MatrixContentAnalysis • Flower Power Research Landscape
    • Research Landscape Matrix, example UrbanImages Entrepreneurial City Connected City Pioneer City Liveable City 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050StrategicResearchIssuesUrban the EU city-landscape changing future position competitiveness in a • urban agglomerations • cities are not only energy consumersMegatrends EU cities facing major structural globalised world seedbeds of pioneer thinking • necessity of combining different changes (demography, economy, geographical scale of networks and societal innovation perspectives culture, etc.) societal and policy challenges • etc. • interdependencies between long-term-oriented solutions foresee future pattern of technological and social emergence and facilitation of geographical concentration of people developments streams of knowledge and and goods • demographic trends and resilience innovation etc. concepts steer entrepreneurs • human-centred perspective etc. • etc.Urban urban tacit knowledge transferred physical-infrastructural nature, e.g. • European urban space is environmental benefits from publicNetworks within cities transport-, logistics-, and energy heterogeneity transportand engage in entrepreneurial activities networks. • European cities are diverse advantage of technologicalConnectivity engage interdependent relations physical connectivity in city territories with unique developments and innovations technological state of the art networks characteristics understand urban planning and diseconomies of agglomeration etc. etc. design etc. etc.Socio- emission reduction respond to people’s needs diverse skill sets of migrants hence environmental pollutersecological congestion reduction sustainable connectivity of cities and native citizens smart environmental and energySustainability safety people’s demand and behaviour • increasing cultural diversity initiatives (e.g., recycling, wasteof City resource allocation etc. and fragmentation of lifestyles recuperation)Systems etc. in European cities act as engines for ecologically- etc. benign strategies etc.
    • FLOWER POWER KNOWLEDGE LANDSCAPE Urban Megatrends – Socio-ecologicalEntrepreneurial City 2050, Urban Networks and Sustainability of City Connected City 2050, Connectivity – Systems – Entrepreneurial Pioneer City 2050, Liveable Entrepreneurial City City 2050, Connected City 2050, Pioneer City 2050, City 2050 2050, Connected City Liveable City 2050 2050, Pioneer City 2050, Liveable City 2050
    • 3 STRATEGIC RESEARCH ISSUES OF URBAN EUROPEA. Urban MegatrendsWhat are the prominent demographic,economic and technological megatrendsthat are decisive for a promising future ofurban systems?B. Urban Networks and ConnectivityWhat are new mobility, logistic and land usedevelopments and policies that are neededto create vital and attractive cities − andnetworks of cities − in the decades tocome?C. Socio-ecological Sustainability of CitySystemsWhich ecological and social constellationshave to be met and implemented in order toshape sustainable and balanced long-runurban development patterns (includingenergy systems) in Europe?
    • KNOWLEDGE ARENA
    • ‘SEXY’ TOPICS ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES : EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTSTHE FLYING CARPETA collection or design of mega-trends, scenario experiments andmonitoring/information systems on the drivers and impacts of long-range mobilityand urbanization tendencies in the decades to comeA STRING OF BIG APPLESResearch issue in the Urban Europe SRF and maps out the behavioural,technological and planning dimensions of large-scale urbanization patterns, inparticular the emergence of (virtually or physically) connected urban areas, notonly inside Europe but also worldwideBELLISSIMOStudy of initiatives on creating sustainable and resilient cities that by faroutperform the existing urban areas in terms of efficiency, ecological quality, safety,social participation and responsiveness to new or unforeseen challenges (includingcoastal zone management in delta areas
    • The JPI URBAN EUROPEACTIVITY-INSTRUMENT MATRIX
    • Instruments → In-kind Tenders Alignment of Urban Europe URBAN EUROPE Cooperation contributions to or national R&D Research joint calls with excitingActivities ↓ MB or Joint projects programmes with Alliance (UERA) bodies organisation of the SRF of the JPI workshops, etc. URBAN EUROPE I FORESIGHT:stock-taking and analysis of existing foresight results (2011)new foresights (2012-2913)research programming II SHARING OF KNOWLEDGE AND DATA:stock-taking of existing information and datacreation of new databasesdesign of urban decision support systems for sustainable developmentdissemination of Urban Europe results (conferences, workshops, websites, etc.) III Themes of the Pilot Phase:A. Urban megatrendsA1. Patterns and Drivers of Long-Term Urban DynamicsA2. Urban Indicators, Strategic Information Systems and Models of Urban DevelopmentA. City networks and connectivityB1. Infrastructure and Advanced Urban TechnologyB2. New Governance Models, Public- Private Interaction and Future Policy ArenasA. Socio-ecological sustainabilityC1. Sustainability of Urban SystemsC2. Social Dynamics, Diversity and Human HealthC3. Vulnerable and Resilient Cities IV Experimental projects, based on fresh research plans:THE FLYING CARPETA STRING OF BIG APPLESBELLISSIMO
    • AMBITION VIA HIERARCHY PYRAMID:AN INTEGRAL PART OF THE STRATEGIC RESEARCH AGENDA EUROPEAN JOINT 4 COORDINATION 3 2 1 NATIONAL WEAK COORDINATION
    • The stakeholders involved are in particular: University and research organizations / institutes European associations and interest organizations in the urban field (incl. private actors) European cooperative research constellations Public bodies with an urban interest (ministries, public organizations, city associations) Funding agencies
    • COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES
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