Webinar: Market & Customer Intelligence on Gwalior for Distribution Franchisee Bidders

Webinar 17th Jan 2012 Market & Customer Intelligence on Gwalior for Distribution Franchisee Bidders Catalyzing emerging business models throughSTAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT | CONSULTING | RESEARCH

Agenda• RFP analysis – Quick MP Bids characterization – DF attractiveness matrix – Load growth & customer segmentation• Socio-Economic analysis – Key socio-economic factors that interrelates with load growth• EUCOPS© – DF CAPEX Drivers – Measurement framework – Localization of PQR issues across customer segments – Priority matrix• Conclusion – Leveraging EUCOPS results for technical DD and validating capex/opex estimations – EUCOPS Report Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric1/17/2012 2 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

RFP ANALYSIS Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric1/17/2012 3 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

MP bids quick characterizationWhat to choose between - Volume vs. Opportunity from ATC reduction vs. Investment size? Bidding KPIs (bubble size indicate mandated CAPEX in Rs. crores) 1400.00 Input Energy (MUs/year) 1200.00 Gwalior (Area 174 sq. km.) 1000.00 Capex - 170 cr. 800.00 1.84 lacs cusomers 600.00 Ujjain (Area 93 sq. km.) Sagar 400.00 Capex - 70 cr. (Area 205 sq.km.) 200.00 95K customers Capex - 30 cr. 54K customers 0.00 0.00% -200.00 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% AT&C losses (%) Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric1/17/2012 4 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

DF Attractiveness Matrix How to select regions for active bidding - Gwalior, Ujjain and Sagar? Revised RFPs @ town level % Deviation from old RFPs @ Districit level East Central West East Central West Parameters • Avg. 98% reduction in Sagar Gwalior Ujjain Sagar Gwalior Ujjain Geographical Area (Sq. Kms.) 204 174 92.68 -98% -97% -98% geographical areapopulation Regional • area & POPULATION (2011) 309000 1045000 663000 -85% -49% -61% Avg. 60% reduction in overall DENSITY (2011)(Population per 1514.71 6005.75 7153.65 Sq.km) 668% 1442% 2448% population, number of No. of Electricity Consumers (Total) 54,641 184,680 95,893 electricity consumers, -81% -30% -71% consumers Electricity in 2011 connected load and also LT 54,634 184,553 95,834 -81% -30% -71% HT 7 127 59 -83% -32% -37% Electricity sales Consumer Density (per sq.km) 267.85 1061.38 1034.67 872% 1989% 1786% • Avg 18% and 22% increase in Connected Load (KW) in 2011 59,971 361,909 134,113 -74% -28% -68% LT 57,374 325,100 120,747 -73% -28% -70% LT and HT consumption respectively Connected Load HT 2,597 36,809 13,366 -80% -25% -47% 293.98 2079.94 1447.05 (kWh/consumer/month) Connected Load Density (KW/sq.km) 1219% 2056% 1985% Average Connected Load per LT 1.05 1.76 1.26 • Avg. 5% improvement in 37% 3% 6% connection (KW) collection efficiency Average Connected Load per HT 371.00 289.83 226.54 connection (KW) 19% 10% -16% • Avg. 77% and 84% reduction in Electricity Sales (LU) in 2011 955 5,423 2,382 -77% -31% -72% number of DTCs and Electricity Sales LT 849 6,432 2,052 -77% 0% -73% HT 106 1,403 330 -74% 0% -56% transformer failure rate Average consumption by LT 129 290 178 19% 43% -8% respectively (kWh/consumer/month) Average consumption by HT 126,488 92,051 46,627 • Distribution losses on avg. 50% 48% -31% (kWh/consumer/month) increased by 2% while ATC Distribution Losses (%) 41.63% 47.42% 38.71% -2% 4% 3% losses on avg. reduced by 1%. Losses Collection Efficiency (%) 93.95% 89.21% 96.56% 2% 7% 6% 45.16% 53.09% 40.82% AT&C Losses 1% -3% -1% Transformer Failure rate % 3.78% 8.95% 5.77% -45% -28% -35% Transformer Transformer Capacity (sum of all 397 4146 1420 -93% -49% -90% divisions)(kVA) Transformer Failure 15 371 82 Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric -96% -64% -94% 1/17/2012 Source: pManifold Analysis 5 No. of DTCs 397 4146 1420 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries -93% -49% -90%

% Load Consumption (LUs)Load Growth & Customer Segmentation 20% Domestic Commercial Industrial (LT) 9%What relevant customer segmentation information from RFP? 1% 5% 51% Irrigation Others HT 14% CAGR Gwalior town (2006-2011) LT HT Overall Domestic Commercial Industrial Irrigation Others Total LT Total HT Overall (LT + HT)For Gwalior Number of consumers 4.09% 3.37% 0.81% 1.45% 6.30% 3.95% 16.90% 3.96% Connected Load (kW) 18.18% 10.74% 2.61% 8.47% 5.89% 13.89% 15.86% 14.08% Electricity Sales (LUs) 4.67% -4.63% 0.66% 21.58% 15.52% 3.50% 13.28% 5.15% Revenue Billed (Rs. Lacs) 20.89% 12.91% 4.74% 34.50% 21.80% 18.19% 17.10% 17.96% Revenue Collected (Rs. Lacs) - - - - - 16.84% 17.83% 17.04% Average billed Tariff (Rs./kWh) 15.49% 18.40% 4.05% 10.63% 5.43% 14.19% 3.37% 12.18% Average realised Tariff (Rs./kWh) - - - - - 12.89% 4.02% 11.32% Collection Efficiency (%) - - - - - -1.14% 0.63% -0.77% Tariff Rates (Rs./kWh) 11.10% 2.01% 4.14% 8.37% 4.00% 5.51% 1.56% - Source: pManifold • Domestic: High unused capacity of connected load • LT Industrial: LT industrial customer segment in domestic segment. (Potential indication of mis- consumption growth is the smallest. functioning meters, theft, mis-appropriation in billing categories etc.) • Agri: Electricity sales has highest growth rate in Agri. (Potential good progress made in metering • Commercial: Fall in electricity sales growth, inspite agri customers. Same also indicated with high CAGR trade occupying largest share of DDP and increasing in billed revenue) contribution. Also contrasting billed tariff and tariff rates growth (potential indication of theft) • HT: HT growth rate is high with steady collection. HT Tariff growth rate is also the smallest. Local utility interactions confirmed 60% losses in almost 50% city 11KV feeders, because of theft Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric 1/17/2012 6 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric1/17/2012 7 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

Socio-Economic trendsDoes Socio-economic parameters interrelate with Load growth and DF operational roll-out?Economic Indicators Social Indicators• 9.36% growth rate of District Domestic product • 0.638 HDI (Gwalior ranks 4th in MP) (DDP) • 24% Female workforce participation is lowest in• 8.53% Per capita income growth rate MP• 32.51% Total workforce participation rate • 24km road network per 100 sq. km. (against (Gwalior ranks 2nd lowest in MP) national avg. of 35)• Increasing Rs. 23092/ha Agri land productivity • 1.48% urban slum population (MP’s max is Rs. 40000/ha) • 41.8% ST population• 46.5% net sown area. 55% of net sown area is • 69.79% literacy under irrigation.• 46.91% & 30.68% respectively Urban & rural BPL families• 25.68% of HH’s involved in NGREGS Human Development Index (HDI) Economic growth Load Growth 700000 6000 600000 5000 Electricity Sales (LUs) 500000 DDP (Rs. Lacs) 4000 400000 Sagar Sagar 300000 3000 Gwalior Gwalior 200000 2000 Ujjain Ujjain 100000 1000 0 0 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Electricity Consumption per Capita (kWh) Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric1/17/2012 8 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

EUCOPS – Electric Utility Customer Opinion, Preferences & Satisfaction A MEASURE OF UTILITY PERFORMANCE Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric1/17/2012 9 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

Distribution Franchisee Capex Drivers What are the major Capex component drivers? What utility performance they target to improve? Sample Capex distribution (First 2 years) Avg. Capex distribution (First 2 ye 11/0.4 kV DTC 16% PQR 16%Consumer Metering (Replacement & New) 15% MBP 15% Services & IT Expenses 12% CS, Com, IARH 12% Critical Success Factors (CSFs) for utility DTR Metering & EHV 11% MBP 11% • PQR- Power Quality & Reliability 33/11kV Sub stn. 11% PQR 11% • MBP – Meter Billing & Payment 3-phase 4 wire meters(AG) 7% MBP 7% • CS – Customer Services 11kV Overhead Lines 5% PQR 5% PQR, Price • Com -5%Communications Conversion of LT OH to UG 5% PQR • IARH4%Information Access & Records – Transformer & DTC Box 4% Handling LT Lines Overhead 0.4 KV PQR 3% 3% PQR, Price • Price 3% UG Cable HT/LT 3% PQR 2% 33kV Overhead Lines 2% PQR, Price 2% RMU/LT Crimping/33Kv Capacitor Bank 2% PQR, Price 1% 11 KV HT Pole Mounted Capacitor Bank 1% MBP 0% AMR HT Consumers and GIS 0% Source: pManifold PQR 0% Aditional Bay 11 KV 0% How to ‘independently’ measure utility’s performance against the CSFs? How to allot costs against each CSFs across different ‘revenue customers’ both in time and space? Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric 1/17/2012 10 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

Electric Utility Customer Opinions, Preferences and Satisfaction (EUCOPS) Study Framework Further breakdown of CSFs into 27 attributes. They in turn drives to create a ‘functional role’ & ‘performance’ based DF organization 1. Unplanned Outages 2. Planned Outages 3. Voltage Stability 4. Safety & Maintenance 5. Local Electricity Infrastructure 7. Ease of New Meter 6. Breakdown Restoration Power Quality & 8. Resolution Meter Complaints Reliability 9. Resolution Billing Complaints 10. Customer Service Response Time 11. Staff Behavior 27. Capability Customer 12. Access to customer service Company Image Service 28. Community Engagement CS 13. Advance notice about disruption 14. Advance notice about public work25. Complaints Traceability 15. Awareness- Energy Efficiency26. Online Accessibility of Information 16. Awareness- Customer Rights Access & Record Communication 17. Communication Modes Records Handling 18. Meter Accuracy 23. Fairness of Price 19. Bill Receipt on Time 24. Value for money Meter Billing 20. Billing Accuracy Price and Payment 21. Easy bill understanding 22. Modes of Payment © pManifold Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric 1/17/2012 11 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

Localization of service delivery issues How to localise PQR issues for Gwalior town - Category-wise & geographically? Power Quality & ReliabilityPlanned Outages % Dissatisfied customers with PQR 100% 100% 90% 80% 80% 80% 67% 70% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 53% 47% 45% 50% 44% 40% 40% 31% 33% 33% 33% 33% 27% 27% 27% 30% 24% 20% 7% 7% 10% 0% Unplanned Outages Planned Outgaes Voltage Stability Safety & Maintenance Local Electricity Breakdown Restoration Infrastructure Residential Commercial Industrial Agri Overall ‘satisfaction’ levels for PQR Breakdown Restoration Local Electricity… Source: pManifold Safety & Maintenance Agri Voltage Stability Industrial Planned OutgaesCommercial Unplanned OutagesResidential 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% VS S DS VDS NA Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric 1/17/2012 VS S DS VDS NA 12 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

Priority Matrix How to design and validate DF Capex plan to quick win customer satisfaction and faster ROI? Importance HIGH Unplanned Outages Value for money Planned Outgaes Bill Receipt on Time Advance notice about Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric Utility/CSAT/Gwalior Fairness of Price Breakdown Restoration Satisfaction HIGH public work Satisfaction LOW Capability Meter Accuracy Advance notice about disruption Voltage Stability Access to customer service Complaints Records handling Billing Accuracy Modes of Payment Staff Behavior Resolution Billing Complaints Easy bill understanding Resolution Meter Complaints Community Engagement Awareness- Consumer Rights Service Response Time Communication Modes Safety & Maintenance Local Electricity Infrastructure Online Accessibility Awareness- Energy Efficiency to records Ease of New Meter30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 1/17/2012 Importance LOW Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric Utility/CSAT/MPSeries Source: pManifold 13

Critical Dissatisfaction across almost all attributesDoes ‘customer’ expectations varies across different consumer categories? Factors Attributes Residential Commercial Industrial Agri  By Category: Unplanned Outages 56.97 35.56 73.33 55.56  Industrial Customers indicating Planned Outgaes 56.36 31.11 71.11 51.11 better customer services than Voltage Stability 50.30 38.10 60.00 28.89 other Customers Power Quality & Safety & Maintenance 40.00 38.89 48.89 35.56 Reliability  Only Industrial respondents are Local Electricity Infrastructure 49.70 45.45 44.44 51.11 satisfied with 4 attributes Breakdown Restoration 61.82 51.28 62.22 40.00 (Green Dots) Average 52.53 40.06 60.00 43.70  Commercial respondents are Ease of New Meter 57.89 55.56 53.33 47.62 dissatisfied with most of Resolution Meter Complaints 45.51 40.48 26.67 48.89 attributes Resolution Billing Complaints 45.28 42.22 53.33 28.89 Customer Service Service Response Time 35.26 33.33 55.56 35.56 Staff Behavior 50.30 44.44 62.22 53.33  Most Dissatisfaction Access to customer service 55.76 51.28 66.67 60.00 Average 48.33 44.55 52.96 45.71 (Factors) Advance notice about disruption 60.26 47.22 71.43 55.56  Information Systems Advance notice about public work 58.79 60.00 62.22 60.00  Customer Service Awareness- Energy Efficiency 34.59 37.78 64.29 53.33  Communications Communications Awareness- Consumer Rights 45.68 41.67 46.67 53.33  Power Quality & Reliability Communication Modes 52.56 57.58 52.38 60.00 Average  Company Image 50.38 48.85 59.40 56.44 Meter Accuracy 56.86 42.86 60.00 51.11 Bill Receipt on Time 58.79 51.11 64.44 53.33 Meter, Billing & Billing Accuracy 51.23 35.71 45.24 53.33  Most Dissatisfaction Payments Easy bill understanding 46.30 52.78 37.78 42.22 (Attributes) Modes of Payment 57.41 66.67 47.62 57.78  Safety & Maintenance Average 54.12 49.83 51.02 51.56  Resolution Meter Complaints Fairness of Price 54.55 46.67 46.67 51.11  Resolution Billing Complaints Price Value for money 64.85 37.78 86.67 51.11  Online Accessibility to records Average 59.70 42.22 66.67 51.11 Complaints Records handling 38.79 37.78 28.89 51.11  Voltage Stability Information Systems Online Accessibility to records 32.08 47.22 26.67 40.48  Awareness Customer Rights Average 35.43 42.50 27.78 45.79  Complaints Records Handling Capability 41.36 33.33 62.22 55.56 Company Image Community Engagement 41.21 41.03 55.56 53.33 Average 41.29 37.18 58.89 54.44 Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric1/17/2012 14 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

EUCOPS help leverage DF on-site due diligence How to use ‘customer derived intelligence’ into strengthening bid estimation? 28.89 PQR: Voltage Stability • What are the causes of CS: Resolution Billing dissatisfaction in 28.89MBP: Billing Complaints different revenue Accuracy CS: Customer customer categories? Service Where? 45.24 Response Time 35.29 • What intervention PQR: Safety and Maintenance required to address Gwalior town 40.00 them? • What capex and opex PQR: 35.56 Outages implications? Residential Commercial Industrial Agri Dissatisfied (CSI < 50) CSI Scale OK (50 < CSI < 67) Satisfied (CSI > 67) Residential Commercial Industrial Agri Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric 1/17/2012 16 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

Augment your bidding intelligence with our EUCOPS© reports Fuel your on-site due diligence efforts and challenge your bidding assumptions with our detailed analytics. All 3 MP regions reports (100+ slides each) available.DF = DISCOM + ATC Loss Reduction + Opex optimization + Customer Satisfaction 1. On-site technical due 1. EUCOPS (Customers) diligence (Bidder- 2. Consumption (RFP) Technical) 3. Socio-Economic 2. Investment Analysis trends (2° research) (Bidder- Mgmt.) pManifold © Informed & Rational Bidding (increase win prep) Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric 1/17/2012 17 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

PricingProduct Price (inc. taxes) BenefitsSingle Site Report (Detailed) Rs. 25,000 Individual Site Report of each location includes, (95+ slides)  Survey Design & FrameworkPack of 3 Site Reports (Detailed) Rs. 60,000  Survey Plan and Demographics  Customer Priority Matrix for 28 different attributes  Customer Opinion & ExpectationsPack of all 9 Site Reports (Detailed) Rs. 1,57,500  Segment and Attribute-wise Customer Satisfaction Results  Key Recommendations + Free Expert Assistance: Buyers get additional research support from the pManifold Team at no additional costConsolidated Top Level Report for Rs. 25,000 Consolidated Report includes, (30+ slides)Gwalior-Sagar-Ujjain  Survey Plan – Survey Areas and Consumer Segmentation  Customer Expectations v/s Utility PerformanceConsolidated Top Level Report for Rs. 75,000  Satisfaction v/s Order of Importance Matrixall 9 districts  Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI)  Customer Opinions and Expectations + Free Expert Assistance: Buyers get additional research support from the pManifold Team at no additional cost * Each report is accompanied with, 2 additional location-wise supplements – • Socio Economic Parameters impacting load growth • Distribution Franchisee RFP Data Analysis Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric 1/17/2012 18 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

Let’s get in Let’s deploy our insights and actions for your business to improve and grow!touch… Join us in our conversations at, pManifold Insights Premium & Free Reports, Presentations, and more… Talk to us or drop by… Rahul Bagdia Faiz Wahid pManifold +91 95610-94490 +91 88056-55069 Community Blog Rahul.Bagdia@pManifold.com Faiz.Wahid@pManifold.com Articles, technical notes. India (Main office) USA (Liaison Office) Power Distribution True Distributed Generation Crystal Plaza, Level 2 2020 Calamos Ct., 276 Central Bazaar Road, Suite 209 Franchisee AT&C Efficiencies Power Distribution Ramdaspeth, Nagpur - 10 Naperville, Community of Interest Franchisee Maharashtra, INDIA IL 60653, USA http://www.pmanifold.com Mr. Dinesh Jain +1 630-853-3520 Connecting talent & Making dinesh.jain@pManifold.com Local companies discoverable Copyright (c) pManifold. Electric1/17/2012 19 Utility/CSAT/MPSeries

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Webinar: Market & Customer Intelligence on Gwalior for Distribution Franchisee Bidders

by pManifold on Jan 17, 2012

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Webinar: Market & Customer Intelligence on Gwalior for Distribution Franchisee Bidders Presentation Transcript