206420 primavera enhancements survey

Oracle Primavera Special Interest Group
Primavera Enhancement Survey Results
Winter 2013
Primavera Risk Analysis
David T. Hulett
Hulett & Associates, LLC

Risk Factors Tornado
Risk Factors Cost Tornadoes
only consider those risks that
are specified as cost risks.
They don't reflect the cost
impact of risks that cause
schedule delay and hence
higher time-dependent costs,
even though that is the main
reason for integrated cost-
schedule risk analysis
9 -Cost estimates are based on preliminary data
7 -Scope growth may be greaterthan expected
2 -MTO, Specs may not be ready forITB
1 -Company's Engineers may vary in Experience
5 -LLE suppliers may be busy
6 -Quality engineers at Fabricators may be inexperienced
4 -Subsea conditions may not be as expected
8 -HUCresources may not be as experienced as needed
3 -May have trouble interfacing phases
Correlation
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45
Correlation
Risk Factors Driving Project Cost

Method of grouping risks to see
common influence on answer
Group risks by RBS for Enterprise influence
assessment. For example in in Tornado report.
Understand not individual risk influence, but which
group of risks influence more. For example Legal risks
or Construction risks

Beyond Tornado Graphs - Really determining the
impact of event risks on the answer at user-
defined probability (e.g., P-80)
The tornado graph does not accurately rank the risk that
contribute the most to the schedule duration.
This can only be done by
1. turning off a risk
2. running the analysis
3. comparing the new date (pick the %)
4. comparing it to the model before the risk was removed.
This will tell you the days of impact that a risk adds to the
schedule. I request that this process be automated as one of
the tornado chart options and the output be the graph ranked
by the days of impact with the user selecting the % confidence
that the analysis is based on (e.g., P-80)

Use Risk Factors
flexibly in modeling cost risk
Risk factors that can be defined independently of the
schedule and applied to costs or durations as I wish
and combined with one another using algebraic
operations to create compound factors that can also
be applied to costs and durations as I wish

Allow risks different probability for
different activities
With Risk Register the impact can be different for
different activities but not for probability Allow each
risk to have different probability for each task it is
assigned to. Currently the workaround is to make
several duplicate risks with different probability. But we
lose unified risks information for one risk in Tornado
report

Bring Back Conditional Branching
Conditional branching dependent on the start or end
date of an activity or the state of a calendar or risk
factor
Macro example from
Risk+ a $700 MS
Project add-in

Risk Factors and Weather Modeling
• Risk Factors should be
made compatible with
weather modeling
• Greater stability with
Weather Module.
Currently module
crashes or freezes far
too frequently. Needs
to be more robust.

Better Gantt chart layout / Schedule
Quality Check
The gantt chart on PRA does not appear very adaptive
and uses its own colors, shapes etc. For instance, like
MS Project which can shrink the timeline to an
appropriate size and the control to zoom in or out is
very easy compared to P6 or PRA
General visual layout - the reports, charts and GUI feels
old. It is more a touch & feel thing and for better
presentation purposes.
Schedule health check something like Acumen FUSE -
more powerful and flexible than schedule check report

Show impact of each risk on durations
Show the contributing impact
of each uncertainty/risk on
cost and time elements as
per the Acumen Risk
product. Be able to
configure it so impacts at
the P50, P70 or P80 level
can be analyzed
Acumen focuses on the P50
impact when creating the
tornados, but this should be
user defined
From
Acumen
RISK

Risk Log
A better risk log and alignment with ISO31000 concepts.
Modelling of opportunities is poor when done
automatically from the risk log.

Importing schedules
Sometimes importing schedule calendars from MS
Project does not import the Exception Days (holidays)
correctly, shortening the project
Greater fidelity when importing from P6 via P6 Tools.
Currently LOE activities, milestones, and some
constraints are not imported correctly
Importing of new .xer files and the resulting views
(layouts). I would like to be able to set up default
"Organize/Re-organize" and "Sort" view that would be
applied to any new .xer file imported[files 001 and
002], along with a persistent 'no time' check [files 003
and 004].

Views and sort / organization / default
settings
Views should capture sort and organization settings.
Currently organization and sort settings have to be re-
set with new projects. Would be nice to have a default
view that captures all settings
Default settings should be more pervasive. Currently
"time" has to be unchecked regardless of default
settings.

Calculating Correlations
Algorithms for
correlation/sensitivity
are statistically
incorrect. One member
reports: “I was informed
by an IT coder that the
algorithm for Pearson's
Rank Correlation with in
PRA was incorrect”

Simple Cost Estimate does not work with
Both Risk Factors and 3-point Estimates
The simple cost estimate can be driven by 3-point
estimates or by Risk Factors but not by both. If both
are present the Risk Factors take over and the 3-point
estimates (representing inherent variability / estimating
error) are ignored
Can be driven by 3-point estimates and Risk Register

Assigning risks within a
Simple Cost Estimate
In Cost Risk Assessment, PRA
doesn't allow Risks to be
associated to certain
estimate line items. Each
cost risk should be able to
link to one or multiple
estimate line items at full
impact or distributed impact
based on percentage or
absolute number

Assigning risks to multiple activities
If you try to assign a risk to a single WBS, or indeed to
all project activities (e.g., for systematic estimating
bias) PRA only assigns the risk as a single risk activity
at the end of WBS. The risk is not added to all
activities in the WBS. PRA doesn’t allow risk to be
applied to all the activities under a WBS with a single
click. If there are 50 activities under a WBS, I will have
to click 50 times to assign a single risk to a single
WBS
Ease to use (multi assignments for distributions etc.)

Assigning Risk Register impacts to
multiple activities
PRA only gives me an option to EITHER assign risk to
activities as a FULL IMPACT to each activity OR
“spread the risk duration across multiple impacts”. It
doesn’t allow me to
• Mix and match
• Use Risk Register risks as ranges that are
proportional to the activity to which it is assigned

Opportunities and Threat in
Risk Register
Risks must be threats or opportunities, because of the
way PRA uses logic to implement them. However
some risk register risks have both positive and
negative impact tails. This cannot be accommodated
(maybe correlation of probability helps)

Importing risk register / factors data from
other sources (e.g., Excel, ARM)
Importing from Active Risk Manager must go through an
Excel interface. Automate this, please
Importing from an Excel database risk register is more
straightforward. But make sure all Risk Register data
are imported correctly

Web and Client Server versions
P6 and PRA
Integrate the schedule Risk analysis capabilities into P6
Client as well as the Web. That is, allow the user to
run a predefined risk model form within the P6
application
Preserve the client server application of PRA and install
in it all improvements that are installed on the web
version
• We are not always linked to the web, and
• A lot of schedules are not created in P6 – there are
more Microsoft Project schedules

Increase PRA speed – take advantage of
64-bit and multi-channel processors
PRA is slow importing large project schedules –
competitors are faster
PRA is slow simulating large project schedules –
competitors are faster
If there is a large schedule for risk analysis, PRA
crashes or becomes very slow. If there was
functionality to help shorten the schedule to just top
few float paths; perhaps it would be helpful

PRA calculation of Progress Override
for out-of-sequence progress
Change Late Date calculation for Progress Override to
Match those of P6. Risk ver. 8.7 cannot manage
properly the Progress Override calculation for late
dates producing different Total Float as P6 Schedule
Calculation (Enhancement Request 16017216)

Additional features
Multi language (Russian)
Accommodate a corporate risk knowledge database
In the date tab of the activity details window please
allow for multiple baseline dates
Allow PRA to interface with @RISK & Decision tool in
real time and / or via URF

Thank you!
www.PrimaveraSIG.
com

206420 primavera enhancements survey

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