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John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
John Doggett - December 13, 2011
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John Doggett - December 13, 2011

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  • 1. Game On!: Debt, Global Competition and Americas Future John N. Doggett, JD, MBA, Senior Lecturer Global Management, Entrepreneurship & Sustainable EnergyMcCombs School of Business @ The University of Texas at Austin john.doggett@mccombs.utexas.edu www.jndoggett.com
  • 2. Strategic Inflection Points Are Scary “A strategic inflection point is a time in the life of a business [or a country] when its fundamentals are about to change. That change can mean an opportunity to rise to new heights. But it may just as likely signal the beginning of the end.”  Andy Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive
  • 3. Japan’s S.I.P.
  • 4. Two Massive S.I.P.s New Global Realities  Europe is tottering on the brink of bankruptcy  America is sinking under a mountain of debt  China, Brazil and India are emerging as the strongest economies in the world The location and nature of energy supply and demand is changing.  Shale Natural Gas  Shale Oil  Geothermal  Ocean
  • 5. Is The World Going Crazy?
  • 6. PIIGS GET SLAUGHTERED
  • 7. On the Brink of Bankruptcy
  • 8. TOO BIG TO FAIL OR BAIL!
  • 9. EU Banks Sovereign-Debt Protection
  • 10. Deficits Forever . . . ?
  • 11. This is a Serious S.I.P.
  • 12. US Deficit Is At Civil War Levels
  • 13. The Scariest Job Chart Every
  • 14. America is Addicted to Debt 2000 = $ 5.67 Trillion 2004 = $ 7.54 Trillion 2008 = $10.57 Trillion Today = $15.06 Trillion 2015 = $23.69 Trillion (Current Spend)
  • 15. A Warning From The Future?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQ ozWP-rM
  • 16. Just The Facts, Jack (Billion US$) May 2008  September 2011  China = $506.8  China = $1,148.3  Japan= $575.3  Japan = $956.8  Caribbean Banking  UK = $421.6 Centers = $104.5  Oil Exporters = $229.9  Oil Exporters = $164.2  Brazil = $206.2  UK = $271.2  Caribbean Banking  Brazil = $151.4 Centers = $173.0  Russia = $63.7  Taiwan = $149.3  Luxembourg = $75.2  Switzerland= $146.1  Hong Kong = $61.4  Hong Kong = $109.0  Taiwan = $38.9  Russia = $94.6  http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
  • 17. Is A New Economic Tsunami Coming?
  • 18. How Do We Pay Down The Debt? We must grow our way out of this crisis.  If the US economy grew by 6%, many of our problems would start to self heal.  If we grew at 9%, “Whoa Nelly!”  So, how do we turn America into North Dakota? We must sell “assets” owned by the federal government and apply to proceeds to reduce the federal debt.
  • 19. We Have Assets We Can Sell
  • 20. LET’S LOOK AT OUR COMPETITION
  • 21. Was Goldman Sachs Crazy? 6,100% Annual Inflation (1994) Collapse of the Ruble (1998) Two Weeks of Foreign Reserves (1991) The Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)
  • 22. National GDP in 2010 (purchasing power parity) Country GDP Real Growth %1. United States $ 14,660,000,000,000 2.8%2. China $10,090,000,000,000 10.3%3. Japan $ 4,310,000,000,000 3.9%4. India $ 4,060,000,000,000 10.4%5. Germany $ 2,940,000,000,000 3.5%6. Russia $ 2,223,000,000,000 4.0%7. United Kingdom $ 2,173,000,000,000 1.3%8. Brazil $ 2,172,000,000,000 7.5%9. France $ 2,145,000,000,000 1.5%10. Italy $ 1,774,000,000,000 1.3%11. Mexico $ 1,567,000,000,000 5.5%12. South Korea $ 1,459,000,000,000 6.1%13. Spain $ 1,369,000,000,000 - 0.1%14. Canada $ 1,330,000,000,000 3.1% CIA World Factbook – September 5, 2011
  • 23. Elephants Emerging from the Mist Total World Population = 6,928,198,253 BRIC Population = 2,868,060,586 (41.4%) Total World Land Area = 174,814,000 sq. km. (- oceans) BRIC Land Area = 38,471,715 (22%) Total World Gross Domestic Product = $63.17 Trillion (Official Exchange Rate) Total World Gross Domestic Product = $74.54 Trillion (Purchasing Power Parity) (p.p.p.) BRIC Gross Domestic Product (p.p.p.) = $ 18.55 Trillion (24.88%) Source: CIA World Factbook – September 5, 2011
  • 24. The BRIC Middle Class Is Exploding McKinsey says 48 million Chinese will join the middle class every year until 2020. Goldman says 30 million Indians, Brazilians and Russians will join the middle class every year until 2020. Only 312.5 million people live in the US. By 2020, the BRIC’s could have 1 billion middle class citizens. This is the greatest time to be an American entrepreneur!
  • 25. Chinese Banks and The World 25
  • 26. The Conference Board Says . . .China Could pass The United States BY 2012! Source: The Conference Board Report issued on November 10, 2010 using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
  • 27. Per Capita Income trumps Size
  • 28. Remember, WE Won the Cold WarWHILE WE WERE SLEEPING,THEY WERE RUNNING
  • 29. This is a Brazilian Super Tanker
  • 30. An Orange Juice Super Tanker
  • 31. Competing With Innovation
  • 32. Add A Large Dash of Oil . . .
  • 33. Bangalore, India
  • 34. This Is the New India
  • 35. Indigo Airlines
  • 36. Tata Motors People’s Car
  • 37. Tata Motors’ Newest Ride
  • 38. Tata Motors’ Newest Ride
  • 39. Welcome to the New China copyright - John N. Doggett, 2008
  • 40. Growth at Warp Speed 40
  • 41. China has 6 of the 15 Tallest Buildings
  • 42. Building Skyscrapers Like Crazy China is building 24 of the 50 skyscrapers to be completed worldwide in the next six years.  This will double the number of Chinese skyscrapers. McKinsey say that China could build enough new skyscrapers to equal one new Chicago every year until 2030.  More than 1,500 new buildings over 30 stories
  • 43. The People’s Republic of Communist China?
  • 44. Shenzhen in 1979 www.lenbracken.com/images/china31
  • 45. 30,000 people lived here in 1983 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:57440.jpg
  • 46. Progress Comes at a Steep Price Source: New York Times, 8/25/2007
  • 47. The Chinese People Hate Dirty Air
  • 48. The Clock is Ticking
  • 49. From China with Love Thermal Power Research Institute is China’s world-leading laboratory on cleaner coal, has just licensed its latest design to Future Fuels in the US.  Future Fuels will pay about $100 million to import from China a 130-foot-high maze of equipment that turns coal into a gas before burning it. This method reduces toxic pollution and makes it easier to capture and sequester gases like carbon dioxide under ground.  Future Fuels will ship the equipment to Pennsylvania and have Chinese engineers teach American workers how to assemble and operate it.
  • 50. Canada formally pulls out of Kyoto The world’s largest two emitters, China and the US, never ratified Kyoto. “To meet the targets under Kyoto for 2012 would be the equivalent of either removing every car, truck, ATV, tractor, ambulance, police car and vehicle of every kind from Canadian roads or closing down the entire farming and agriculture sector and cutting heat to every home, office, hospital, factory and building in Canada,”
  • 51. Yes We Can!INVENT, INNOVATE, OWN
  • 52. American Farmers Will Thrive China and India are covering farm land with factories. Global warming is increasing flooding from the Himalayas. Farm commodity and land prices can only trend in one direction. By the end of this decade, finding farm workers will be a major challenge. Farm equipment manufacturers will be running two shifts, seven days a week.
  • 53. A Great Time To Be a Farmer! The world’s appetite for farm products will soar. The world will have more than enough cash to buy what we grow Farm support payments will no longer be necessary Quotas, tariffs and other market protections will no longer be necessary We will be able to sell everything that we can grow and process.
  • 54. Impact of MIT Alumni Entrepreneurs MIT Alumni founded 25,800 currently active companies in 2009. The firms employed 3,300,000 people. These firms generated annual world revenues of $2,000,000,000,000. If currently active firms founded by MIT graduates were a country in 2009 they would have been the 11th largest economy in the world. Economic Impact of MIT Alumni Entrepreneurs - Entrepreneurial Impact: The Role of MIT, Roberts and Eesley, MIT & Kauffman Foundation for Entrepreneurship, February, 2009
  • 55. “Recruit” The Right Immigrants Immigrants started 25% of U.S. public companies that were venture-backed. The market capitalization of publicly traded immigrant-founded venture-backed companies in the U. S. exceeds $500 billion. 40% of U.S. publicly traded venture-backed high- technology manufacturing companies were started by immigrants. 50%+ of the employment generated by U.S. public venture-backed high-tech manufacturers has come from immigrant-founded companies.
  • 56. APPLE REINVENTED CREATIVITY!
  • 57. The iPhone Didn’t Exist before 2007
  • 58. Apple = 4% Sales & 52% Profits
  • 59. If You Thought the iPhone Was Hot
  • 60. iPad = 96% Of All Tablet Web Traffic
  • 61. Apple Stores = 20% Retail Growth
  • 62. Apple Passes Microsoft
  • 63. WE CAN REINVENT MANUFACTURING The Chevrolet Sonic is Transforming the face of American Manufacturing  The plant is 50% smaller  Wielding Robots are clustered together instead o being spaced along the line  The first coat of rust proofing is 1/100 as thick  Many employees make $14 an hour instead of $28 an hour . . . With the UAW’s blessings. All of this so the Sonic can be manufactured in Detroit instead of Mexico.
  • 64. Made in Detroit
  • 65. RETHINKING ENERGY
  • 66. Exploding Energy Consumption
  • 67. China and Energy In 2000, the US used twice as much energy as China. In 2010, China used 4% more energy than the US.  Americans use 5x as much energy per capita. In 2007, China became the largest emitter of Greenhouse gases. Today, 80% of China’s energy comes from coal. The # for India is 70%. China consumes more coal than the US, Europe and Japan combined.
  • 68. Coal Is King in China
  • 69. China Dominates Fuel Demand
  • 70. Chinese Car Ownership Explodes
  • 71. Massive Energy Investments The World Energy Outlook for 2011 says that $38 Trillion in new investment is needed to expand the world’s energy infrastructure between 2011-2035 Electric Power = $16.9 Trillion Oil = $10.0 Trillion Natural Gas = $9.5 Trillion Coal = $1.1 Trillion Biofuels = $0.3 Trillion
  • 72. Oil Fuels America’s Deficit
  • 73. Small Hydro Projects Putting many small hydro dams on rivers to generate 5 to 10 MW of power.
  • 74. Is This the Golden Age of Gas? The International Energy Agency says total recoverable resources equal over 250 years of current consumption. From 2010, global natural gas use could increase by more than 50% and account for over 25% of world energy demand in 2035. Power generation will be the dominant sector for natural gas demand and Russia will have to increase by 3X.
  • 75. Shale Gas = 50% Supply in 2020
  • 76. Shale Gas Everywhere You Look
  • 77. Shale Gas Is Revolutionary Shale Gas increased America’s gas reserves by 40% in this decade. Shale Gas reserves outside of North America could increase the world’s gas reserves by 50% to 160%. That is equal to 211 to 690 years’ worth of gas consumption in the United States at current levels.
  • 78. THE OCEAN IS FILLED WITH ELECTRICITY
  • 79. French Tidal Power Plant Online in 1967 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rance_tidal_power_plant.JPG
  • 80. Tidal Power Growth 45 Wave and Tidal prototypes will be tested in 2011 and 2012. Only 9 were tested in 2009.
  • 81. Korean Tidal Power Plant Online in August
  • 82. Real Projects; Real Power 1,320 MW Incheon Tidal Power Station built around islands west of Incheon. Construction will start in 2017.
  • 83. Ocean Wave Power
  • 84. Capturing Waves
  • 85. Sea Dog Pump = 22% Conversion
  • 86. Ocean Powered Fresh Water
  • 87. Cheap, Available Fresh Water What happens to global stability if every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs? What happens to global agriculture and hunger if every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs? What happens to global economic growth if every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs?
  • 88. Ocean Currents = Electric Power
  • 89. Ocean Thermal Power Potential
  • 90. Ocean Thermal Power
  • 91. FINALLY . . .
  • 92. This Is Not About A Carhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKL25 4Y_jtc&feature=player_detailpage
  • 93. The Future Is In Our Hands

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