Game On!: Debt, Global Competition       and Americas Future          John N. Doggett, JD, MBA, Senior Lecturer  Global Ma...
Strategic Inflection Points Are Scary “A strategic inflection point is a time in  the life of a business [or a country]  ...
Japan’s S.I.P.
Two Massive S.I.P.s New Global Realities   Europe is tottering on the brink of bankruptcy   America is sinking under a ...
Is The World Going Crazy?
PIIGS GET SLAUGHTERED
On the Brink of Bankruptcy
TOO BIG TO FAIL OR BAIL!
EU Banks Sovereign-Debt Protection
Deficits Forever . . . ?
This is a Serious S.I.P.
US Deficit Is At Civil War Levels
The Scariest Job Chart Every
America is Addicted to Debt 2000     =   $ 5.67 Trillion 2004     =   $ 7.54 Trillion 2008     =   $10.57 Trillion Tod...
A Warning From The Future?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQ               ozWP-rM
Just The Facts, Jack (Billion US$) May 2008                    September 2011   China = $506.8                   China...
Is A New Economic Tsunami Coming?
How Do We Pay Down The Debt? We must grow our way out of this  crisis.   If the US economy grew by 6%, many of our    pr...
We Have Assets We Can Sell
LET’S LOOK AT OUR COMPETITION
Was Goldman Sachs Crazy? 6,100% Annual Inflation (1994) Collapse of the Ruble (1998) Two Weeks of Foreign Reserves (199...
National GDP in 2010                            (purchasing power parity)  Country                          GDP           ...
Elephants Emerging from the Mist Total World Population = 6,928,198,253 BRIC Population = 2,868,060,586 (41.4%) Total W...
The BRIC Middle Class Is Exploding McKinsey says 48 million Chinese will  join the middle class every year until  2020. ...
Chinese Banks and The World                     25
The Conference Board Says . . .China Could pass The United States BY               2012! Source: The Conference Board Repo...
Per Capita Income trumps Size
Remember, WE Won the Cold WarWHILE WE WERE SLEEPING,THEY WERE RUNNING
This is a Brazilian Super Tanker
An Orange Juice Super Tanker
Competing With Innovation
Add A Large Dash of Oil . . .
Bangalore, India
This Is the New India
Indigo Airlines
Tata Motors People’s Car
Tata Motors’ Newest Ride
Tata Motors’ Newest Ride
Welcome to the New China   copyright - John N. Doggett, 2008
Growth at Warp Speed                       40
China has 6 of the 15 Tallest Buildings
Building Skyscrapers Like Crazy China is building 24 of the 50  skyscrapers to be completed worldwide  in the next six ye...
The People’s Republic of Communist China?
Shenzhen in 1979    www.lenbracken.com/images/china31
30,000 people lived here in 1983       Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:57440.jpg
Progress Comes at a Steep Price     Source: New York Times, 8/25/2007
The Chinese People Hate Dirty Air
The Clock is Ticking
From China with Love Thermal Power Research Institute is  China’s world-leading laboratory on  cleaner coal, has just lic...
Canada formally pulls out of Kyoto The world’s largest two emitters, China  and the US, never ratified Kyoto. “To meet t...
Yes We Can!INVENT, INNOVATE, OWN
American Farmers Will Thrive China and India are covering farm land  with factories. Global warming is increasing floodi...
A Great Time To Be a Farmer! The world’s appetite for farm products  will soar. The world will have more than enough  ca...
Impact of MIT Alumni Entrepreneurs MIT Alumni founded 25,800 currently active  companies in 2009. The firms employed 3,3...
“Recruit” The Right Immigrants Immigrants started 25% of U.S. public companies  that were venture-backed. The market cap...
APPLE REINVENTED CREATIVITY!
The iPhone Didn’t Exist before 2007
Apple = 4% Sales & 52% Profits
If You Thought the iPhone Was Hot
iPad = 96% Of All Tablet Web Traffic
Apple Stores = 20% Retail Growth
Apple Passes Microsoft
WE CAN REINVENT MANUFACTURING The Chevrolet Sonic is Transforming  the face of American Manufacturing   The plant is 50%...
Made in Detroit
RETHINKING ENERGY
Exploding Energy Consumption
China and Energy In 2000, the US used twice as much  energy as China. In 2010, China used 4% more energy  than the US.  ...
Coal Is King in China
China Dominates Fuel Demand
Chinese Car Ownership Explodes
Massive Energy Investments The World Energy Outlook for 2011  says that $38 Trillion in new investment  is needed to expa...
Oil Fuels America’s Deficit
Small Hydro Projects Putting many small hydro dams on  rivers to generate 5 to 10 MW of power.
Is This the Golden Age of Gas? The International Energy Agency says  total recoverable resources equal over  250 years of...
Shale Gas = 50% Supply in 2020
Shale Gas Everywhere You Look
Shale Gas Is Revolutionary Shale Gas increased America’s gas  reserves by 40% in this decade. Shale Gas reserves outside...
THE OCEAN IS FILLED WITH      ELECTRICITY
French Tidal Power Plant Online in 1967        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rance_tidal_power_plant.JPG
Tidal Power Growth 45 Wave and Tidal prototypes will be  tested in 2011 and 2012. Only 9 were  tested in 2009.
Korean Tidal Power Plant Online in August
Real Projects; Real Power 1,320 MW Incheon Tidal Power Station  built around islands west of Incheon.  Construction will ...
Ocean Wave Power
Capturing Waves
Sea Dog Pump = 22% Conversion
Ocean Powered Fresh Water
Cheap, Available Fresh Water What happens to global stability if  every country with access to the sea  can get all the f...
Ocean Currents = Electric Power
Ocean Thermal Power Potential
Ocean Thermal Power
FINALLY . . .
This Is Not About A Carhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKL25    4Y_jtc&feature=player_detailpage
The Future Is In Our Hands
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John Doggett - December 13, 2011

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John Doggett - December 13, 2011

  1. 1. Game On!: Debt, Global Competition and Americas Future John N. Doggett, JD, MBA, Senior Lecturer Global Management, Entrepreneurship & Sustainable EnergyMcCombs School of Business @ The University of Texas at Austin john.doggett@mccombs.utexas.edu www.jndoggett.com
  2. 2. Strategic Inflection Points Are Scary “A strategic inflection point is a time in the life of a business [or a country] when its fundamentals are about to change. That change can mean an opportunity to rise to new heights. But it may just as likely signal the beginning of the end.”  Andy Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive
  3. 3. Japan’s S.I.P.
  4. 4. Two Massive S.I.P.s New Global Realities  Europe is tottering on the brink of bankruptcy  America is sinking under a mountain of debt  China, Brazil and India are emerging as the strongest economies in the world The location and nature of energy supply and demand is changing.  Shale Natural Gas  Shale Oil  Geothermal  Ocean
  5. 5. Is The World Going Crazy?
  6. 6. PIIGS GET SLAUGHTERED
  7. 7. On the Brink of Bankruptcy
  8. 8. TOO BIG TO FAIL OR BAIL!
  9. 9. EU Banks Sovereign-Debt Protection
  10. 10. Deficits Forever . . . ?
  11. 11. This is a Serious S.I.P.
  12. 12. US Deficit Is At Civil War Levels
  13. 13. The Scariest Job Chart Every
  14. 14. America is Addicted to Debt 2000 = $ 5.67 Trillion 2004 = $ 7.54 Trillion 2008 = $10.57 Trillion Today = $15.06 Trillion 2015 = $23.69 Trillion (Current Spend)
  15. 15. A Warning From The Future?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQ ozWP-rM
  16. 16. Just The Facts, Jack (Billion US$) May 2008  September 2011  China = $506.8  China = $1,148.3  Japan= $575.3  Japan = $956.8  Caribbean Banking  UK = $421.6 Centers = $104.5  Oil Exporters = $229.9  Oil Exporters = $164.2  Brazil = $206.2  UK = $271.2  Caribbean Banking  Brazil = $151.4 Centers = $173.0  Russia = $63.7  Taiwan = $149.3  Luxembourg = $75.2  Switzerland= $146.1  Hong Kong = $61.4  Hong Kong = $109.0  Taiwan = $38.9  Russia = $94.6  http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
  17. 17. Is A New Economic Tsunami Coming?
  18. 18. How Do We Pay Down The Debt? We must grow our way out of this crisis.  If the US economy grew by 6%, many of our problems would start to self heal.  If we grew at 9%, “Whoa Nelly!”  So, how do we turn America into North Dakota? We must sell “assets” owned by the federal government and apply to proceeds to reduce the federal debt.
  19. 19. We Have Assets We Can Sell
  20. 20. LET’S LOOK AT OUR COMPETITION
  21. 21. Was Goldman Sachs Crazy? 6,100% Annual Inflation (1994) Collapse of the Ruble (1998) Two Weeks of Foreign Reserves (1991) The Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)
  22. 22. National GDP in 2010 (purchasing power parity) Country GDP Real Growth %1. United States $ 14,660,000,000,000 2.8%2. China $10,090,000,000,000 10.3%3. Japan $ 4,310,000,000,000 3.9%4. India $ 4,060,000,000,000 10.4%5. Germany $ 2,940,000,000,000 3.5%6. Russia $ 2,223,000,000,000 4.0%7. United Kingdom $ 2,173,000,000,000 1.3%8. Brazil $ 2,172,000,000,000 7.5%9. France $ 2,145,000,000,000 1.5%10. Italy $ 1,774,000,000,000 1.3%11. Mexico $ 1,567,000,000,000 5.5%12. South Korea $ 1,459,000,000,000 6.1%13. Spain $ 1,369,000,000,000 - 0.1%14. Canada $ 1,330,000,000,000 3.1% CIA World Factbook – September 5, 2011
  23. 23. Elephants Emerging from the Mist Total World Population = 6,928,198,253 BRIC Population = 2,868,060,586 (41.4%) Total World Land Area = 174,814,000 sq. km. (- oceans) BRIC Land Area = 38,471,715 (22%) Total World Gross Domestic Product = $63.17 Trillion (Official Exchange Rate) Total World Gross Domestic Product = $74.54 Trillion (Purchasing Power Parity) (p.p.p.) BRIC Gross Domestic Product (p.p.p.) = $ 18.55 Trillion (24.88%) Source: CIA World Factbook – September 5, 2011
  24. 24. The BRIC Middle Class Is Exploding McKinsey says 48 million Chinese will join the middle class every year until 2020. Goldman says 30 million Indians, Brazilians and Russians will join the middle class every year until 2020. Only 312.5 million people live in the US. By 2020, the BRIC’s could have 1 billion middle class citizens. This is the greatest time to be an American entrepreneur!
  25. 25. Chinese Banks and The World 25
  26. 26. The Conference Board Says . . .China Could pass The United States BY 2012! Source: The Conference Board Report issued on November 10, 2010 using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
  27. 27. Per Capita Income trumps Size
  28. 28. Remember, WE Won the Cold WarWHILE WE WERE SLEEPING,THEY WERE RUNNING
  29. 29. This is a Brazilian Super Tanker
  30. 30. An Orange Juice Super Tanker
  31. 31. Competing With Innovation
  32. 32. Add A Large Dash of Oil . . .
  33. 33. Bangalore, India
  34. 34. This Is the New India
  35. 35. Indigo Airlines
  36. 36. Tata Motors People’s Car
  37. 37. Tata Motors’ Newest Ride
  38. 38. Tata Motors’ Newest Ride
  39. 39. Welcome to the New China copyright - John N. Doggett, 2008
  40. 40. Growth at Warp Speed 40
  41. 41. China has 6 of the 15 Tallest Buildings
  42. 42. Building Skyscrapers Like Crazy China is building 24 of the 50 skyscrapers to be completed worldwide in the next six years.  This will double the number of Chinese skyscrapers. McKinsey say that China could build enough new skyscrapers to equal one new Chicago every year until 2030.  More than 1,500 new buildings over 30 stories
  43. 43. The People’s Republic of Communist China?
  44. 44. Shenzhen in 1979 www.lenbracken.com/images/china31
  45. 45. 30,000 people lived here in 1983 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:57440.jpg
  46. 46. Progress Comes at a Steep Price Source: New York Times, 8/25/2007
  47. 47. The Chinese People Hate Dirty Air
  48. 48. The Clock is Ticking
  49. 49. From China with Love Thermal Power Research Institute is China’s world-leading laboratory on cleaner coal, has just licensed its latest design to Future Fuels in the US.  Future Fuels will pay about $100 million to import from China a 130-foot-high maze of equipment that turns coal into a gas before burning it. This method reduces toxic pollution and makes it easier to capture and sequester gases like carbon dioxide under ground.  Future Fuels will ship the equipment to Pennsylvania and have Chinese engineers teach American workers how to assemble and operate it.
  50. 50. Canada formally pulls out of Kyoto The world’s largest two emitters, China and the US, never ratified Kyoto. “To meet the targets under Kyoto for 2012 would be the equivalent of either removing every car, truck, ATV, tractor, ambulance, police car and vehicle of every kind from Canadian roads or closing down the entire farming and agriculture sector and cutting heat to every home, office, hospital, factory and building in Canada,”
  51. 51. Yes We Can!INVENT, INNOVATE, OWN
  52. 52. American Farmers Will Thrive China and India are covering farm land with factories. Global warming is increasing flooding from the Himalayas. Farm commodity and land prices can only trend in one direction. By the end of this decade, finding farm workers will be a major challenge. Farm equipment manufacturers will be running two shifts, seven days a week.
  53. 53. A Great Time To Be a Farmer! The world’s appetite for farm products will soar. The world will have more than enough cash to buy what we grow Farm support payments will no longer be necessary Quotas, tariffs and other market protections will no longer be necessary We will be able to sell everything that we can grow and process.
  54. 54. Impact of MIT Alumni Entrepreneurs MIT Alumni founded 25,800 currently active companies in 2009. The firms employed 3,300,000 people. These firms generated annual world revenues of $2,000,000,000,000. If currently active firms founded by MIT graduates were a country in 2009 they would have been the 11th largest economy in the world. Economic Impact of MIT Alumni Entrepreneurs - Entrepreneurial Impact: The Role of MIT, Roberts and Eesley, MIT & Kauffman Foundation for Entrepreneurship, February, 2009
  55. 55. “Recruit” The Right Immigrants Immigrants started 25% of U.S. public companies that were venture-backed. The market capitalization of publicly traded immigrant-founded venture-backed companies in the U. S. exceeds $500 billion. 40% of U.S. publicly traded venture-backed high- technology manufacturing companies were started by immigrants. 50%+ of the employment generated by U.S. public venture-backed high-tech manufacturers has come from immigrant-founded companies.
  56. 56. APPLE REINVENTED CREATIVITY!
  57. 57. The iPhone Didn’t Exist before 2007
  58. 58. Apple = 4% Sales & 52% Profits
  59. 59. If You Thought the iPhone Was Hot
  60. 60. iPad = 96% Of All Tablet Web Traffic
  61. 61. Apple Stores = 20% Retail Growth
  62. 62. Apple Passes Microsoft
  63. 63. WE CAN REINVENT MANUFACTURING The Chevrolet Sonic is Transforming the face of American Manufacturing  The plant is 50% smaller  Wielding Robots are clustered together instead o being spaced along the line  The first coat of rust proofing is 1/100 as thick  Many employees make $14 an hour instead of $28 an hour . . . With the UAW’s blessings. All of this so the Sonic can be manufactured in Detroit instead of Mexico.
  64. 64. Made in Detroit
  65. 65. RETHINKING ENERGY
  66. 66. Exploding Energy Consumption
  67. 67. China and Energy In 2000, the US used twice as much energy as China. In 2010, China used 4% more energy than the US.  Americans use 5x as much energy per capita. In 2007, China became the largest emitter of Greenhouse gases. Today, 80% of China’s energy comes from coal. The # for India is 70%. China consumes more coal than the US, Europe and Japan combined.
  68. 68. Coal Is King in China
  69. 69. China Dominates Fuel Demand
  70. 70. Chinese Car Ownership Explodes
  71. 71. Massive Energy Investments The World Energy Outlook for 2011 says that $38 Trillion in new investment is needed to expand the world’s energy infrastructure between 2011-2035 Electric Power = $16.9 Trillion Oil = $10.0 Trillion Natural Gas = $9.5 Trillion Coal = $1.1 Trillion Biofuels = $0.3 Trillion
  72. 72. Oil Fuels America’s Deficit
  73. 73. Small Hydro Projects Putting many small hydro dams on rivers to generate 5 to 10 MW of power.
  74. 74. Is This the Golden Age of Gas? The International Energy Agency says total recoverable resources equal over 250 years of current consumption. From 2010, global natural gas use could increase by more than 50% and account for over 25% of world energy demand in 2035. Power generation will be the dominant sector for natural gas demand and Russia will have to increase by 3X.
  75. 75. Shale Gas = 50% Supply in 2020
  76. 76. Shale Gas Everywhere You Look
  77. 77. Shale Gas Is Revolutionary Shale Gas increased America’s gas reserves by 40% in this decade. Shale Gas reserves outside of North America could increase the world’s gas reserves by 50% to 160%. That is equal to 211 to 690 years’ worth of gas consumption in the United States at current levels.
  78. 78. THE OCEAN IS FILLED WITH ELECTRICITY
  79. 79. French Tidal Power Plant Online in 1967 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rance_tidal_power_plant.JPG
  80. 80. Tidal Power Growth 45 Wave and Tidal prototypes will be tested in 2011 and 2012. Only 9 were tested in 2009.
  81. 81. Korean Tidal Power Plant Online in August
  82. 82. Real Projects; Real Power 1,320 MW Incheon Tidal Power Station built around islands west of Incheon. Construction will start in 2017.
  83. 83. Ocean Wave Power
  84. 84. Capturing Waves
  85. 85. Sea Dog Pump = 22% Conversion
  86. 86. Ocean Powered Fresh Water
  87. 87. Cheap, Available Fresh Water What happens to global stability if every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs? What happens to global agriculture and hunger if every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs? What happens to global economic growth if every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs?
  88. 88. Ocean Currents = Electric Power
  89. 89. Ocean Thermal Power Potential
  90. 90. Ocean Thermal Power
  91. 91. FINALLY . . .
  92. 92. This Is Not About A Carhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKL25 4Y_jtc&feature=player_detailpage
  93. 93. The Future Is In Our Hands

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