A Multi-criteria Decision Model for Prioritization of Critical Road Structures

INFORMS Annual Meeting 2008 Washington D.C. October 15, 2008 Wednesday 13:30 - 15:00 Marriot Wardman - Room 8218 Session WC14 Multi-criteria Decision Model for Project Portfolio Selection Considering Synergies Marina Duarte, Adiel Teixeira Almeida A Multiple Criteria Sorting Approach with Tchebycheff Utility Function Banu Soylu Country Credit-risk Rating Aggregation via the Separation-deviation Model Erick Moreno Centeno, Dorit Hochbaum Evaluating the Impact of Additional Information in the Context of MCDA with Information Imperfection Sarah Ben Amor, Jean-Marc Martel A Multi-criteria Decision Model for Prioritization of Critical Road Structures Ozay Ozaydin, Ilker Topcu

A multi-criteria decision model for prioritization of critical road structures Ozay OZAYDIN & Y. Ilker TOPCU Istanbul Technical University

agenda • Disaster • Disaster management • Decision model

disaster

2

vulnerability + hazard

geologic hydrometeorologic human related natural technical

complex emergencies infectious diseases human related population movement famine/food insecurity

na tu ra drought l animal and insect infestation

l ica hn c te transport accidents industrial accidents

tsunami ﬂood hy d ro m et typhoon, tornado.. eo ro lo icg

earthquake volcanic eruptions ic og landslide ol ge

geologic hydrometeorologic human related natural technical

tsunami landslide earthquake ﬂood volcanic complex typhoon, eruption emergency tornado.. situations infectious famine diseases transport population accidents movement draught industrial insect accidents infestation

earthquake

EMDAT The International Emergency Disasters Database www.emdat.be funded by United Nations contains location, time, casualty, economic loss, impact area information of all disasters occurred between 1900 - 2008 all researchers are welcome after ﬁlling out a simple form

ies that asu alt ost c ausi ng m isast ers c 2008 00 - 1 0 of ﬁ rst 1 in T 0d urkey be twee n 19 occ ured Disaster Date Casualties Earthquake December 26, 1939 32,962 Earthquake August 17, 1999 17,127 Earthquake April 29, 1903 6,000 Earthquake November 26, 1942 4,000 Earthquake February 1, 1944 3,959 Earthquake November 24, 1976 3,840 Earthquake December 20, 1942 3,000 Earthquake November 26, 1943 2,824 Earthquake August 19, 1966 2,394 Earthquake September 6, 1975 2,385

oun t of os t am them 008 ffec ting 190 0-2 aste rs e een 0 dis betw rkey 8 of ﬁ rst le th 1 at o ccur ed i n Tu p eop Disaster Date # of people effected Earthquake June 28, 1998 1,589,600 Earthquake August 17, 1999 1,358,953 Flood May 20, 1998 1,240,047 Earthquake September 30, 1983 834,137 Earthquake September 18, 1984 375,038 Earthquake October 18, 1984 375,035 Earthquake March 13, 1992 348,850 Earthquake July 22, 1967 326,073 Flood November 4, 1995 306,617 Earthquake May 1, 2003 290,520

ic loss econom os t g th em ausin 2008 isast ers c 00 - n 19 7 of ﬁrst occ 10 d ured in Tu rkey bet wee that Disaster Date Economic loss (US$) Earthquake August 17, 1999 20 billions Flood May 20, 1998 1 billion Earthquake November 12, 1999 1 billion Earthquake March 13, 1992 750 millions Earthquake June 28, 1998 550 millions Flood October 27, 2006 317 millions Earthquake October 1, 1995 206 millions Flood June 18, 1990 150 millions Earthquake May 1, 2003 135 millions Earthquake February 3, 2002 95 millions

earthquake

ts id en Flood nc 26% f i # o Landslide 6% Forest fire Change in temp. 3% 5% Hurricane 6% Infectious diseases 5% Earthquake 50%

lti es s ua ca Earthquake 97%

p le e o p ct ed ef fe of Infectious diseases # 2% Floods 20% Earthquake 78%

a ge d am Floods 7% Earthquake 93%

earthquake

?

be prepared

pre disaster post

disaster preparedness mitigation

disaster response recovery

management -3 months disaster -2 months -1.month preparation 0.month disaster disaster response 1 month 2 months 3 months mitigation recovery 4 months 5 months 6 months

bridges, viaducts and tunnels are critical elements of transportation system

the importance of these structures are more vividly seen when emergency response process is disrupted due to loss of functionality of them.

what can be done? money strengthening re-constructing design change time

decision

cost-beneﬁt analysis do-don’t do decision linear regression models evaluation of safety levels of the bridge/tunnel/viaduct with respect to damage, structural capacity and local geological characteristics multi-criteria models determining the sensitivity of the structure by taking different perspectives into consideration

Strategic Importance

Strategic Importance Public safety based on number of people using the structure during rush hours

Strategic Importance Public safety based on number of people using the structure during rush hours Highway

Strategic Importance Public safety based on number of people using the structure during rush hours Highway Urban roads

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action based on number of people loss of functionality of using the structure during preferred roads rush hours Highway Urban roads

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action based on number of people loss of functionality of using the structure during preferred roads rush hours Highway Firestation Urban roads

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action based on number of people loss of functionality of using the structure during preferred roads rush hours Highway Firestation Urban roads Hospital

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action based on number of people loss of functionality of using the structure during preferred roads rush hours Highway Firestation Urban roads Hospital Emergency rescue units

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action based on number of people loss of functionality of using the structure during preferred roads rush hours Highway Firestation Urban roads Hospital Emergency rescue units Military zone

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action Long term based on number of people loss of functionality of economical impact using the structure during preferred roads loss of work force rush hours Highway Firestation Urban roads Hospital Emergency rescue units Military zone

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action Long term based on number of people loss of functionality of economical impact using the structure during preferred roads loss of work force rush hours Highway Firestation Capacity of roads Potential usage Urban roads Hospital Emergency rescue units Military zone

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action Long term based on number of people loss of functionality of economical impact using the structure during preferred roads loss of work force rush hours Highway Firestation Capacity of roads Potential usage Urban roads Hospital Average trafﬁc Frequency of usage Emergency rescue units Military zone

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action Long term based on number of people loss of functionality of economical impact using the structure during preferred roads loss of work force rush hours Highway Firestation Capacity of roads Potential usage Urban roads Hospital Average trafﬁc Frequency of usage Emergency rescue units Alternative routes Military zone

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action Long term based on number of people loss of functionality of economical impact using the structure during preferred roads loss of work force rush hours Highway Firestation Capacity of roads Potential usage Urban roads Hospital Average trafﬁc Frequency of usage Emergency rescue units Alternative routes Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action Long term Interaction with based on number of people loss of functionality of economical impact other lifelines using the structure during preferred roads loss of work force decrease in quality of life rush hours Highway Firestation Capacity of roads Potential usage Urban roads Hospital Average trafﬁc Frequency of usage Emergency rescue units Alternative routes Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action Long term Interaction with based on number of people loss of functionality of economical impact other lifelines using the structure during preferred roads loss of work force decrease in quality of life rush hours Highway Firestation Capacity of roads Lifelines Potential usage Urban roads Hospital Average trafﬁc Frequency of usage Emergency rescue units Alternative routes Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes

Strategic Importance Public safety Emergency action Long term Interaction with based on number of people loss of functionality of economical impact other lifelines using the structure during preferred roads loss of work force decrease in quality of life rush hours Highway Firestation Capacity of roads Lifelines Potential usage Urban roads Hospital Average trafﬁc Transportation network Frequency of usage Emergency rescue units Alternative routes Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes

decision conference

Chief of planning of “Fire Department of Istanbul” 14 members of “Disaster Coordination Ofﬁce” 2 Industrial Engineering Professors from Istanbul Technical University 1 Civil Engineering Professor from Istanbul Technical University 1 Civil Engineering Professor from Bosphorus University

5 water crossing bridges: 2 on bosphorus, 3 on golden horn 32 highway bridges, 17 viaducts, 3 tunnels under control of the municipality

e p t st ex n Geographical Information Systems (GIS)

www.ozaydin.info www.ilkertopcu.org www.slideshare.net/ozay

A Multi-criteria Decision Model for Prioritization of Critical Road Structures

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