Bruce Katz: The Metropolitan Future of Brazil and the United States | Glo…

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Bruce Katz: The Metropolitan Future of Brazil and the United States | Glo…

  1. 1. The Metropolitan Future of Brazil and the United States@bruce_katz#globalcities São Paulo, Brazil / November 2012
  2. 2. Photos: Flickr/maych, Insper, Flickr/fkintz
  3. 3. Brazil-US Relationship Strong & Growing Stronger 274% Brazil-US trade growth 1990-2010 300% US to Brazil FDI growth 2004-2011 390% Brazil to US visitor growthSources: US Census Bureau: Dados de Comércio Internacional, 2004-2011Fluxos OECD FDI, US ITA Office of Travel & Tourism Industries
  4. 4. Brazil-US Relationship Strong & Growing StrongerPhoto: Roberto Stuckert Filho/PR
  5. 5. Exports Share of GDP 2010 30% 29% 22% 13% 12% China Canada India 15% 15% United States Brazil Japan European UnionSource: Brookings analysis of EIU and WTO data
  6. 6. Cities and Metropolitan Areas Engines of National Economies United States Brazil 91% 88% 84% 85% Population GDP Population GDPSources: Mundo indicadores do Banco de Desenvo lvimento, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia eEstatística (IBGE), US Census, US Bureau of Economic Analysis
  7. 7. 1 2 3 Cities and metropolitan areas are 1 the engines of national economies
  8. 8. 1 2 3 Cities and metropolitan areas are2 centers for trade & investment
  9. 9. 1 2 3 Cities and metropolitan areas need to3 drive their economic destinies
  10. 10. 1 2 3 Cities and metropolitan areas are 1 the engines of national economies
  11. 11. Since 1950 the global urban The majority of the world’s population has tripled in size, population lives in cities and and will reach 5 billion by 2030 metropolitan areas 5.0 b 3.6 b 29% 0.8 b 1950 1950 2010 2030Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, 2011`
  12. 12. Since 1950 the global urban The majority of the world’s population has tripled in size, population lives in cities and and will reach 5 billion by 2030 metropolitan areas 5.0 b 3.6 b 29% 51% 0.8 b 2009 1950 2010 2030Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, 2011`
  13. 13. Since 1950 the global urban The majority of the world’s population has tripled in size, population lives in cities and and will reach 5 billion by 2030 metropolitan areas 5.0 b 3.6 b 29% 51% 60% 0.8 b 2030 1950 2010 2030Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, 2011`
  14. 14. Urban Share of National Population 2010 74% 77% 80% Germany Spain United Kingdom 84% 85% 31% 49% United States Brazil 62% India China South AfricaSource: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects
  15. 15. Source: Brookings, Global MetroMonitor 2012 300 top metropolitan areas 19% global population 48% global GDP
  16. 16. 300 top metropolitan areas 13 in Brazil 76 in the United States
  17. 17. Top 13 Brazilian Metropolitan Areas Share of National Total 63% 56% 50% 52% 35% Population Manufacturing College GDP Finance Output Graduates OutputSource: Brookings, Metropolitan Brazil (2012)
  18. 18. Top 13 Brazilian Metropolitan Areas Global Ranking & Economic Size 11 São Paulo $473 B 47 Rio de Janeiro $195 B 87 Brasilia $139 B 131 Belo Horizonte $95 B 160 Porto Alegre $75 B 178 Curitiba $65 B 185 Campinas $61 B 202 Salvador $55 B 265 Recife $36 B 279 Grande Vitoria $34 B 288 Fortaleza $31 B 289 Manaus $31 B 295 Baixada Santista $28 BSource: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics, Moody’s Analytics & US Census Bureau data
  19. 19. 11 metrosstate or federal capitals
  20. 20. 3 metrosState of Sao Paulo
  21. 21. Top Global Metros Population Economy 1 Tokyo 1 Tokyo 2 Jakarta 2 New York 3 Chongqing 3 Los Angeles 4 Shanghai 4 Seoul 5 Seoul 5 London 6 Delhi 6 Paris 7 Beijing 7 Osaka-Kobe 8 Mumbai 8 Chicago 9 Mexico City 9 Moscow 10 São Paulo 10 Shanghai 11 New York 11 São Paulo 12 Osaka-Kobe 12 Koln-Dusseldorf 13 Kolkata 13 Beijing 14 Tianjin 14 Washington- 15 London 15 Arlington-Alexandria Mexico CitySource: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics, Moody’s Analytics & US Census Bureau data
  22. 22. São Paulo Metropolitan Area 10% Population BrazilSource: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics, Moody’s Analytics & US Census Bureau data
  23. 23. São Paulo Metropolitan Area 20% GDP BrazilSource: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics, Moody’s Analytics & US Census Bureau data
  24. 24. São Paulo Metropolitan Area 20% 57% GDP State of São PauloSource: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics, Moody’s Analytics & US Census Bureau data
  25. 25. Top 300 metropolitan areas 13 in Brazil 76 in the United States
  26. 26. Top 76 US Metropolitan Areas Share of National Totals 77% 78% 67% 68% 61% 58% Population Manufacturing College GDP Finance Patents Output Graduates OutputSource: Brookings analysis of Moody’s Economy.com data and Strumsky Patent Database, Brookings Global MetroMonitor 2012
  27. 27. Top 76 US Metropolitan Areas Top 5 Global Ranking & Economic Size 2 New York $1,210 B 3 Los Angeles $787 B 8 Chicago $525 B 14 Washington $415 B 16 Houston $400 B Bottom 5 276 Columbia $34 B 280 Knoxville $34 B 281 Allentown $33 B 285 Little Rock $32 B 287 Harrisburg $31 B Dólar dos EUASource: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics, Moody’s Analytics & US Census Bureau data
  28. 28. 1 2 3 Cities and metropolitan areas are 2 centers for trade & investment
  29. 29. The Silk RoadI - XV Centuries
  30. 30. The Hanseatic League XIII - XV Centuries
  31. 31. Italian City-States XII - XV Centuries
  32. 32. Trade is essential to Metros are
  33. 33. Metros are essential to Trade
  34. 34. Top 13 Brazilian metro share 61% Foreign waterborne trade 66% Top 76 US metro share Foreign waterborne tradeSource: Brookings analysis of Brazil MDIC AliceWeb & US Army Corps of Engineers data
  35. 35. 82% Top 76 US metro share International air travel Top 13 Brazilian metro share 82% International air travelSource: Brookings analysis of Infraero & US Department of Transportation data
  36. 36. Top 13 Brazilian Metropolitan Areas Top 76 US Metropolitan Areas Share of National Totals Share of National Totals 2003-2012 2003-2012 77% 77% 70% 59% FDI FDI-related FDI FDI-related Projects Jobs Projects JobsSource: Brookings analysis of fDi Markets data
  37. 37. Metropolitan Goods Exports Share of National Total 33% 56% Top 13 Brazilian Metros Top 76 US MetrosSources: ALICEWeb MDIC, Brookings ExportNation 2012
  38. 38. Top 76 US Metro Exports Participação Nacional Total 76% 72% 72% 67% 59% Chemical Business & Computer & Manufacturing Service Products Professional Electronic Exports Exports Services ProductsSource: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
  39. 39. Top 300 metropolitan areas 13 in Brazil 76 in the United States
  40. 40. Sao Paulo Dashboard Global Connections 26% Metro Sao Paulo share national air passenger traffic 33% Metro Sao Paulo share national air cargo 1st Port of Santos rank cargo volume, South American portsSource: INFRAERO 2012, CI Online 2009,Mundo Marítimo Conselho Photo: Wikicommons/Bunks
  41. 41. 27% Sao Paulo Dashboard Global Connections Metro Sao Paulo share metropolitan goods exports 19% Metro Sao Paulo share national foreign direct investmentSources: Brookings analysis of fDi Markets data and Brookings,Metropolitan Brazil (2012)
  42. 42. London Frankfurt New York Madrid TokyoMiami Shanghai Hong Kong São Paulo São Paulo | Finanças
  43. 43. Stuttgart MilanDetroit Nagoya São Paulo São Paulo | Fabricação
  44. 44. Brussles London Toronto Frankfurt Paris Zurich Chicago Seoul New York Milan Madrid Tokyo Los Angeles Hong Kong Mexico City Singapore São Paulo SydneySource: Beaverstock, Smith & Taylor, A Roster of World Cities, Cities Journal (1999)
  45. 45. AmsterdamHouston Bogotá Dar es Salaam Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro | Energy
  46. 46. Dublin TokyoSan Jose Bangalore Campinas Campinas | Technology
  47. 47. Harbin Lisbon Palm Bay São José dos CamposSão José dos Campos | Aerospace
  48. 48. 1 2 3 Cities and metropolitan areas need to 3 drive their economic destinies
  49. 49. Innovate Locally
  50. 50. Metropolitan Business Planning Seattle Minneapolis- Portland St. Paul Syracuse Chicago Northeast OhioLos Angeles
  51. 51. Market AssessmentMetropolitan Business Planning Economic Profile Target Sectors 15% 12% 8% 9% 12% 13% 9% Establish Goals & Strategies Double exports Support key sectors Increase global Boost SME exports fluency Collaborate to Compete Firms Universities Government Philanthropy
  52. 52. Target industries: aerospace, Metropolitan Business Planning computer and electronic products, pharmaceuticals, professional services, film and television Grow Los Angeles metropolitan exports City of USC Los LA Area Chamber of Angeles CommerceLos Angeles UCLA Port of Los Angeles World Port of Airports of Long LA Beach
  53. 53. Target industries: aerospace, Metropolitan Business Planning computer and electronic products, pharmaceuticals, professional services, film and television Grow Los Angeles metropolitan exports City of USC Los LA Area Chamber of Angeles CommerceLos Angeles LA Regional Export UCLA Port of Los Council Angeles World Port of Airports of Long LA Beach
  54. 54. São Paulolan Provide a platform for growth: quality schools, efficient ess P tropolitanGBusailnCities Initiative transport, sound governance Me lobe SANTA ISABEL FRANCISCO MAIRIPORÃ 2007-2012 MORATO FRANCO DA ROCHA CAJAMAR ARUJÁ GUARAREMA CAIEIRAS $99.9 PIRAPORA DO GUARULHOS BOM JESUS ITAQUAQUE- CETUBA ÍBA MOGI DAS SANTANA DE PARNA CRUZES SALESÓPOLIS POÁ SÃO PAULO BARUERI VASCONCELOS FERRAZ DE JAN OSASCO BIRITIBA- Increase foreign direct ITAPEVI DIR A CARAPI- CUÍBA SUZANO MIRIM SUL TABOÃO SÃO CAETANO DO VARGEM GRANDE DA SERRA MAUÁ IRE S PAULISTA EMBU OP IRÃ ANDEA A E DEM COTIA RIB GR ERR RÉ DIA RIO DA S ND investment: transportation ITAPECERICA TO A DA SERRA SAN SÃO BERNARDO DO CAMPO SÃO EMBU- LOURENÇO GUAÇU DA SERRAPAULO JUQUITIBA infrastructure1-2012rvices 3.5 62 48cturing State GDP State populationution/retail 20 10
  55. 55. Innovate Locally Network Globally
  56. 56. Houston City of Houston City of São Paulo Commercial relations Science and technology collaboration São Paulo Facilitate information sharing
  57. 57. Enterprise FloridaMiami Sao Paulo office to expand trade in Brazil Miami Free Trade Zone office São to facilitate special trade and Paulo investment projects
  58. 58. Columbus University of The Ohio State São Paulo University Brazil Research Exchange Program Ohio State University “Global São Gateways” Sao Paulo Office Paulo (2014)
  59. 59. ColumbusHouston Miami São Paulo
  60. 60. Innovate Locally Network Globally Advocate Nationally
  61. 61. National Government ResponsibilitiesEnhancing access to foreignmarketsEnforcing trade agreementsOpening up borders toimmigrantsProtecting intellectualproperty
  62. 62. Federal Support for Export-Focused Metropolian Business Plans Minneapolis- Portland St. Paul Syracuse Los Angeles International Export- Small Business State Department of TradeImport Bank Administration Administration Department Transportation
  63. 63. ESADE Mapping: Export and FDI Support Government Non-Profit/Business AssociationNational APEX- Ministry of BNDES SEBRAE AmCham FBCC Brazil Int’l Affairs Government Non-Profit/Business AssociationState INVESTESP IIRRState SPCC FECOINT FIESP Government Non-Profit/Business AssociationSão Paulo IIRRCity SPCCMetro
  64. 64. United States Free Trade Agreements n AmericaNorth rade US-Panama Free T ent Free Trade Agreem Agreement US-Colombia US-Korea Free Trade D Free Trade Tran RAFT Agreement Agreement Par s-Pacific tnership
  65. 65. A Vision for the Western HemisphereAgreement on Trade and Economic Co operation 2011
  66. 66. Innovate Locally Network Globally Advocate Nationally
  67. 67. The Metropolitan Future of Brazil and the United States@bruce_katz#globalcities São Paulo, Brazil / November 2012

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