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Paul Ryan To Seniors: "Drop Dead"

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A presentation based on a national survey conducted by Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps and Campaign for America's Future.

A presentation based on a national survey conducted by Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps and Campaign for America's Future.

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Paul Ryan To Seniors: "Drop Dead" Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Paul Ryan to Seniors: “ Drop Dead” April 15, 2011 © 2011 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
  • 2. Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a national survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps and Campaign for America’s Future. Democracy Corps surveyed 1000 likely 2012 voters (1000 weighted) April 10-12, 2011. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/- 3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence.
  • 3. Direction of the country: pessimism returns to 2008 level Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? 2010 2008 Election *Note: From full sample of 2008 voters, based on research for Citizen Opinion. Health Care Reform Passes 2010 Election
  • 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Inauguration *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys since the 2008 election. Before inauguration, question read: “Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president-elect?” 2010 Election Obama approval: down from 51 percent earlier in year
  • 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job in charge of the House of Representatives? Independents -69 -17 All Voters Democrats -21 +44 Republicans Republicans in Congress: Strong and intense disapproval
  • 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job in charge of the House of Representatives? -6 -14 January February -17 April Republicans in Congress: Disapproval at an all-time high * Note: Question was not asked in March.
  • 7. Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. * Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past year. Data represents MEAN ratings, likely voters 2010 Election Thermometers: Both parties decline; Republicans decline sharply
  • 8. Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. 51.4 +6 46.1 44.3 46.1 45.8 -7 -12 -2 -5 Thermometers: Parties lackluster, President holds on Mean: Warm-Cool:
  • 9. I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Independents Republicans Democrats All Voters +2 +18 +81 +84 Obama v. Romney: President loses independent voters
  • 10. I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?* 2008 Election 2010 Election * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic “the Democratic candidate” or “the Republican candidate” were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic. Congressional race: Parties near parity just 5 months after election
  • 11. I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?* * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic “the Democratic candidate” or “the Republican candidate” were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic. Independents Republicans Democrats Total +2 +13 +87 +89 Congressional vote: Democrats up since November but lose Independents
  • 12. Democratic base voters move back home after tough election I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress next year, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for – (DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE)? * Note: Incumbent names were inserted with party identification. Generic challengers were inserted as “The Democratic Candidate.” RAE = “Rising American Electorate” and is comprised of voters under 30, minorities and unmarried women RAE Dem. +29 Under 30 Minority Dem. +38 Dem. +14 Dem. +44 Unmarried women
  • 13. Congressional vote: Swing voters remain divided I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?* * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic “the Democratic candidate” or “the Republican candidate” were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic. Suburban Obama-Republican Voters White non-South rural White non-college +17 +14 +4 +2
  • 14. Democrats not heard on deficits, split on which party can improve employment Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. Dem-Rep +2 +8 0 -10 -8 -16 -19 Retirement and Social Security The budget deficit Medicare Has the right approach to the economy and jobs The economy Jobs and employment Has the right approach to spending and deficits 51
  • 15. Better job on issues: after messaging, Dems see better results Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. Dem-Rep +9 +11 -5 -3 -7 Retirement and Social Security Medicare Has the right approach to the economy and jobs The economy Has the right approach to spending and deficits 46
  • 16. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page | The Ryan Republican Budget
  • 17. The Ryan Budget: approval starts at just 48 percent Democrats This week, Republicans in the House of Representatives proposed a budget for the next 10 years that they say will cut 6.2 trillion dollars from the federal budget. From what you know, do you favor or oppose this budget plan? Independents Republicans +39 +66 +40 Total +15 59 19 26 55 76 10 33 48
  • 18. Budget: even description and information shifts debate sharply This week, Republicans in the House of Representatives proposed its budget for the next 10 years that will cut 6.2 trillion dollars from the federal budget. From what you now know, do you favor or oppose this plan? +20 36 56 The plan cuts 6.2 trillion dollars below the president's budget and reduces the debt as a percentage of the economy. It makes small cuts in defense spending. It cuts spending for domestic programs in the coming year by 72 billion dollars, almost 20 percent, and freezes it for five years. It repeals the new health care bill and the new Wall Street reform law, makes major cuts of almost 800 billion dollars to Medicaid and Medicare for seniors over the next ten years. Starting in 2022, new retirees will no longer get health coverage through Medicare, but instead will get a voucher that will partially pay for insurance they purchase from private health insurance companies. The proposal cuts taxes for corporations and people making over 370 thousand dollars a year. Total
  • 19. Budget with description: even Republicans fall off Democrats Independents Republicans +7 +37 +81 Total +20 88 7 50 43 63 26 56 36 The plan cuts 6.2 trillion dollars below the president's budget and reduces the debt as a percentage of the economy. It makes small cuts in defense spending. It cuts spending for domestic programs in the coming year by 72 billion dollars, almost 20 percent, and freezes it for five years. It repeals the new health care bill and the new Wall Street reform law, makes major cuts of almost 800 billion dollars to Medicaid and Medicare for seniors over the next ten years. Starting in 2022, new retirees will no longer get health coverage through Medicare, but instead will get a voucher that will partially pay for insurance they purchase from private health insurance companies. The proposal cuts taxes for corporations and people making over 370 thousand dollars a year.
  • 20. Seniors move sharply against the budget after hearing description Seniors White seniors +25 +19 Total +20 57 32 35 54 56 36 The plan cuts 6.2 trillion dollars below the president's budget and reduces the debt as a percentage of the economy. It makes small cuts in defense spending. It cuts spending for domestic programs in the coming year by 72 billion dollars, almost 20 percent, and freezes it for five years. It repeals the new health care bill and the new Wall Street reform law, makes major cuts of almost 800 billion dollars to Medicaid and Medicare for seniors over the next ten years. Starting in 2022, new retirees will no longer get health coverage through Medicare, but instead will get a voucher that will partially pay for insurance they purchase from private health insurance companies. The proposal cuts taxes for corporations and people making over 370 thousand dollars a year.
  • 21. Ryan budget: Messaging shifts the opinion of the plan Democrats Now let me ask again. This week, Republicans in the House of Representatives proposed a budget for the next 10 years that they say will cut 6.2 trillion dollars from the federal budget. From what you know, do you favor or oppose this budget plan? Independents Republicans +6 +60 +75 Total +7 85 10 44 50 78 18 51 44
  • 22. Ryan budget: Messaging shifts the opinion of the plan- Dem base Under 30 Now let me ask again. This week, Republicans in the House of Representatives proposed a budget for the next 10 years that they say will cut 6.2 trillion dollars from the federal budget. From what you know, do you favor or oppose this budget plan? Minority Unmarried women +33 +46 +25 RAE +31 59 34 64 31 24 70 63 32
  • 23. Budget: Messaging and information loses seniors Seniors White seniors +1 +6 Total +7 45 46 48 42 51 44 Now let me ask again. This week, Republicans in the House of Representatives proposed a budget for the next 10 years that they say will cut 6.2 trillion dollars from the federal budget. From what you know, do you favor or oppose this budget plan?
  • 24. I am going to read you some of the things Republicans are saying about their plan to cut 6.2 trillion dollars over 10 years. After I read each statement, please tell me how convincing a reason it is to support the Republican plan -- is it a very convincing reason, a somewhat convincing reason, a little convincing, or not at all a convincing reason to support the budget plan? Republican Messages: modest approval for major GOP themes 63 57 51 51 (FOREIGN DEBT) Both Democrats and Republicans have run up deficits, but now they are out of control under President Obama and threatening our economy. This plan changes the reckless path of over-spending and borrowing that leaves America at the mercy of China that lends us trillions of dollars and leaves our children burdened by debt. (BOLD) Republicans are making the bold and necessary choices to reverse this cycle of spending and debt. President Obama and the Democrats have tried to spend our way out of the recession, a failed strategy that has just made our problems worse. This Congress will not put off making the hard decisions for the country. (DEREGULATION) Over-regulation and high taxes punish companies for success. We need to help businesses create jobs. This plan cuts taxes for small businesses and uses incentives to help entrepreneurs start businesses. It relieves the burden of regulation put on businesses and will help to create nearly 1 million private-sector jobs next year and 2.5 million private-sector jobs by 2020. (CORPORATE) The United States has the highest corporate tax rates in the industrialized world, making it harder for companies to grow and create jobs here. They punish successful businesses and discourage entrepreneurs who create jobs. This plan helps American businesses that are currently struggling to compete in the international marketplace and encourages companies to reinvest their profits and capital in the United States. 57 (WASTE) This budget forces government to cut out waste and duplication. By cutting domestic spending and freezing it for five years, it forces hard choices. By turning Medicaid over to the states, it saves money while allowing them to spend it according to their own needs. We have to preserve the safety net, but we can't allow it to be a hammock that fosters irresponsibility.
  • 25. Top Republican messages reach under two thirds of voters Foreign Debt 57 Both Democrats and Republicans have run up deficits, but now they are out of control under President Obama and threatening our economy. This plan changes the reckless path of over-spending and borrowing that leaves America at the mercy of China that lends us trillions of dollars and leaves our children burdened by debt. 63 I am going to read you some of the things Republicans are saying about their plan to cut 6.2 trillion dollars over 10 years. After I read each statement, please tell me how convincing a reason it is to support the Republican plan -- is it a very convincing reason, a somewhat convincing reason, a little convincing, or not at all a convincing reason to support the budget plan? Deregulation Over-regulation and high taxes punish companies for success. We need to help businesses create jobs. This plan cuts taxes for small businesses and uses incentives to help entrepreneurs start businesses. It relieves the burden of regulation put on businesses and will help to create nearly 1 million new private-sector jobs next year and 2.5 million additional private-sector jobs by 2020.
  • 26. Republican messages: very little intensity, lackluster support 51 Corporate The United States has the highest corporate tax rates in the industrialized world, making it harder for companies to grow and create jobs here. They punish successful businesses and discourage entrepreneurs who create jobs. This plan helps American businesses that are currently struggling to compete in the international marketplace and encourages companies to reinvest their profits and capital in the United States. 57 I am going to read you some of the things Republicans are saying about their plan to cut 6.2 trillion dollars over 10 years. After I read each statement, please tell me how convincing a reason it is to support the Republican plan -- is it a very convincing reason, a somewhat convincing reason, a little convincing, or not at all a convincing reason to support the budget plan? Bold Republicans are making the bold and necessary choices to reverse this cycle of spending and debt. President Obama and the Democrats have tried to spend our way out of the recession, a failed strategy that has just made our problems worse. This Congress will not put off making the hard decisions for the country.
  • 27. Cuts to Medicare, seniors raise biggest doubts Vouchers Seniors Rations I am going to read you some of the things Democrats are saying about the Republican budget plan for the next 10 years. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the Republicans' budget plan. Veterans 66 60 65 65 60 65 This plan would cut Medicare spending and replace it with a voucher system, forcing seniors to negotiate with insurers, which could raise rates and deny coverage. Guaranteed coverage would end and seniors would pay more out of pocket. This plan reduces benefits and raises health care costs for seniors. The average 65-year-old beneficiary will be pay 43 percent more, as much as twenty thousand dollars out of pocket annually for premiums to health insurance companies. This plan would cut 30 billion dollars in Medicare spending and create a rationing system for seniors' health care. Seniors would get a limited voucher for health care that wouldn't keep up with soaring health care costs. This plan cuts veterans' health care benefits by almost 19 billion dollars over ten years, leaving our Iraq and Afghanistan veterans without the health care that they need and deserve for their brave service. Middle Class This plan would actually decrease taxes for CEOs and big corporations, giving millionaires another huge tax break on top of the Bush tax cuts, while raising taxes on the middle class to pay for it . According to the Economic Policy Institute, this plan will cost 2 million jobs over the next 5 years. At a time when unemployment is sitting near 9 percent, the last thing we want to do is put more people out of work. Jobs
  • 28. Health care cuts and Wall Street abuses cause concern for voters Deficit Wall Street Low-income Oil Companies 61 63 58 54 53 61 This plan does very little to reduce deficits. It cuts taxes for corporations and the richest Americans, and pays for that by ending Medicare and Medicaid, and cutting spending on health care. This plan allows big Wall Street banks to police themselves and continue the abuses that led to the economic crash three years ago. It would allow them to charge excessive fees and create the complicated types of loans that led to millions of foreclosures. Approximately two-thirds of the cuts come from programs for lower-income Americans who are struggling most during the recession, including food stamps, aid for college education, federal housing aid and health care. This plan makes the biggest-ever cuts to Pell Grants, which will make it harder for moderate and low-income students to go to college, get ahead, and compete for good jobs. This budget protects the 50 billion dollars of taxpayer subsidies received by the big oil companies and it cuts research into clean, alternative energy by nearly 90 percent. I am going to read you some of the things Democrats are saying about the Republican budget plan for the next 10 years. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the Republicans' budget plan. Health Care Education This plan will eliminate guaranteed Medicare and Medicaid coverage for 32 million people by 2014, including coverage for seniors, the disabled, and the poor, putting them at the mercy of private insurance companies.
  • 29. Two thirds agree that we cannot break our social contract with seniors 66 62 61 51 I am going to read you some of the things Democrats are saying about the Republican budget plan for the next 10 years. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the Republicans' budget plan. (ECONOMY AND JOBS) A plan to reduce the deficit will not work if it undermines economic growth. With this economy struggling to rebound, this plan cuts jobs in the short term and cuts programs critical to our economic future, such as education and training, infrastructure projects, new technologies, and clean energy. (BROKEN CONTRACT) This budget shreds the contract that this country has with seniors after a life time of work. We promised seniors that the cost of health care and long-term care would not bankrupt them and their families in their retirement. By ending Medicare, this plan will force seniors to pay more out of pocket and negotiate with private drug and insurance companies. By slashing Medicaid it takes away the last protection for seniors late in life. (FOR THE TOP) This plan has the wrong priorities. It is focused on helping corporate special interests and Wall Street, not reducing the deficit or helping the country. It raises taxes for the middle class, while cutting them for the wealthiest. It repeals the Wall Street reforms and it abolishes Medicare, cuts funding for education, health care, alternative energy, and job training programs and uses the money not for reducing the deficit, but to help the most privileged. (MIDDLE CLASS) The middle class and working people are under siege, with rising prices and jobs paying less. This budget slashes programs critical to the middle class, such as retirement security and health care, education and investments in good paying jobs, while cutting taxes for the rich by nearly one third.
  • 30. Broken Contract: causes serious concern among 2010 defectors 60 66 63 65 63 70 I am going to read you some of the things Democrats are saying about the Republican budget plan for the next 10 years. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the Republicans' budget plan. This budget shreds the contract that this country has with seniors after a life time of work. We promised seniors that the cost of health care and long-term care would not bankrupt them and their families in their retirement. By ending Medicare, this plan will force seniors to pay more out of pocket and negotiate with private drug and insurance companies. By slashing Medicaid it takes away the last protection for seniors late in life. Broken Contract Independents Suburban Young men White non-college White seniors Obama-Republican voters
  • 31. Broken Contract: strong intensity among Democratic base 82 78 71 82 80 78 I am going to read you some of the things Democrats are saying about the Republican budget plan for the next 10 years. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the Republicans' budget plan. This budget shreds the contract that this country has with seniors after a life time of work. We promised seniors that the cost of health care and long-term care would not bankrupt them and their families in their retirement. By ending Medicare, this plan will force seniors to pay more out of pocket and negotiate with private drug and insurance companies. By slashing Medicaid it takes away the last protection for seniors late in life. Broken Contract Democrats RAE All women Unmarried women Minorities Youth
  • 32. Priorities message: reaches white seniors and white non-college 59 57 51 65 71 64 I am going to read you some of the things Democrats are saying about the Republican budget plan for the next 10 years. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the Republicans' budget plan. For the Top Independents Suburban Young men White non-college White seniors Obama-Republican voters This plan has the wrong priorities. It is focused on helping corporate special interests and Wall Street, not reducing the deficit or helping the country. It actually raises taxes for the middle class, while cutting them for the wealthiest. It repeals the Wall Street reforms for the big banks. And it abolishes Medicare, cuts funding for education, health care, alternative energy, and job training programs and uses the money not for reducing the deficit, but to help the most privileged
  • 33. Priorities message: Less real for youth voters 81 66 63 71 65 53 I am going to read you some of the things Democrats are saying about the Republican budget plan for the next 10 years. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the Republicans' budget plan. For the Top Democrats RAE Women Unmarried women Minorities Youth This plan has the wrong priorities. It is focused on helping corporate special interests and Wall Street, not reducing the deficit or helping the country. It actually raises taxes for the middle class, while cutting them for the wealthiest. It repeals the Wall Street reforms for the big banks. And it abolishes Medicare, cuts funding for education, health care, alternative energy, and job training programs and uses the money not for reducing the deficit, but to help the most privileged
  • 34. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page | Shifts
  • 35. Budget battle erodes trust in Republicans on economy, deficits +8 +3 I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. +16 +7 Right approach to the economy and jobs Right approach to spending and deficits Initial Initial After balanced debate After balanced debate Net : +5 Net : +9
  • 36. Budget battle erodes trust in Republicans on key economic issues +8 +3 +10 +5 +16 +7 The Economy Right approach to the economy and jobs Right approach to spending and deficits Initial Initial Initial After balanced debate After balanced debate After balanced debate Net : +5 Net : +5 Net : +9 I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item.
  • 37. Democrats gain trust on Medicare, Retirement and Social Security +2 +9 +8 +11 Retirement and Social Security Medicare Initial Initial After balanced debate After balanced debate Net +7 Net +4 I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item.
  • 38. Retirement and Social Security: Republicans gain ground among seniors +6 +3 +1 +9 Seniors Non-Seniors Initial Initial After balanced debate After balanced debate Net: +3 Net: +8 I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with RETIREMENT AND SOCIAL SECURITY. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item.
  • 39. Both parties gain trust with seniors on Medicare +11 +11 +7 +12 Seniors Non-seniors Initial Initial After balanced debate After balanced debate Even Net +5 I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with MEDICARE If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item.
  • 40. Initial 33 With description 48 56 +15 +20 36 Net shift: +35 Ryan Budget: description, information dramatically shifts debate Now that you've heard more information, do you favor or oppose this plan?
  • 41. Initial 33 With description 48 57 +15 +25 32 Net shift: +40 Ryan Budget: description of the plan moves seniors to strongly oppose Now that you've heard more information, do you favor or oppose this plan?
  • 42. Initial After information and balanced debate 51 +15 +7 44 Net shift: +22 Informed debate shifts voters; increased intensity for opposition Now that you've heard more information, do you favor or oppose this plan? 48 33
  • 43. Initial After information and balanced debate 45 +15 +1 46 Net shift: +14 Opposition increases among seniors after balanced debate Now that you've heard more information, do you favor or oppose this plan? 48 33
  • 44. Target groups that shift against budget after hearing it described The plan cuts 6.2 trillion dollars below the president's budget and reduces the debt as a percentage of the economy. It makes small cuts in defense spending. It cuts spending for domestic programs in the coming year by 72 billion dollars, almost 20 percent, and freezes it for five years. It repeals the new health care bill and the new Wall Street reform law, makes major cuts of almost 800 billion dollars to Medicaid and Medicare for seniors over the next ten years. Starting in 2022, new retirees will no longer get health coverage through Medicare, but instead will get a voucher that will partially pay for insurance they purchase from private health insurance companies. The proposal cuts taxes for corporations and people making over 370 thousand dollars a year Moderate-conservative Democrats Minority Youth Women Senior women Democrats Unmarried women Rising American Electorate Democratic Districts
  • 45. Swing groups that shift against budget after hearing it described The plan cuts 6.2 trillion dollars below the president's budget and reduces the debt as a percentage of the economy. It makes small cuts in defense spending. It cuts spending for domestic programs in the coming year by 72 billion dollars, almost 20 percent, and freezes it for five years. It repeals the new health care bill and the new Wall Street reform law, makes major cuts of almost 800 billion dollars to Medicaid and Medicare for seniors over the next ten years. Starting in 2022, new retirees will no longer get health coverage through Medicare, but instead will get a voucher that will partially pay for insurance they purchase from private health insurance companies. The proposal cuts taxes for corporations and people making over 370 thousand dollars a year Obama-Republican Districts 2010 Republican pick-ups White non-college White Catholics Suburban White non-South rural Seniors White Seniors Independents
  • 46.