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A presentation by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, at the America's Furture Now 2009 conference.

A presentation by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, at the America's Furture Now 2009 conference.

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Government-Led Investments and the Future Economy Government-Led Investments and the Future Economy Presentation Transcript

  • Government-Led Investments and the Future Economy June 10, 2009
  • Cited materials
    • Democracy Corps survey of 1,500 2008 voters in 40 Democratic-held and 15 Republican-held battleground districts, conducted April 16-21, 2009
    • Democracy Corps survey conducted March 25-29, 2009, of 1,000 2008 voters nationwide
    • Democracy Corps national survey conducted March 4-8, 2009, of 1,000 2008 voters
    • Democracy Corps survey of 1,200 likely 2010 voters in 40 Democratic-held battleground house districts, conducted January 14-19, 2009
    • Democracy Corps survey of 1000 voters conducted December 16-18, 2008
    • Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 voters nationwide conducted November 19-23, 2008
    • Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,600 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008
    • Democracy Corps battleground survey of 1,200 likely voters conducted in the 50 most competitive Republican districts, October 21-24, 2006
    • Pew Research 2009 values survey of 1,507 nationwide conducted April 14-21, 2009
    • Women’s Voices, Women’s Vote survey of 1,300 2008 voters, conducted January 22- February 3, 2009
    • League of Conservation Voters survey of 851 voters in 11 battleground states (CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, NC, NM, NV, PA, OH, and VA) conducted November 3 and 4, 2008
  • Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page | Rebuild the Economy for Long-Term: Obama
  • Because right now, we're standing near the largest solar electric plant of its kind in the entire Western Hemisphere -- the entire Western Hemisphere. More than 72,000 solar panels built on part of an old landfill provide 25 percent of the electricity for the 12,000 people who live and work here at Nellis. That's the equivalent of powering about 13,200 homes during the day . It's a project that took about half a year to complete, created 200 jobs , and will save the United States Air Force, which is the largest consumer of energy in the federal government, nearly $1 million -- $1 million a year. It will also reduce harmful carbon pollution by 24,000 tons per year, which is the equivalent of removing 4,000 cars from our roads . Most importantly, this base serves as a shining example of what's possible when we harness the power of clean, renewable energy to build a new, firmer foundation for economic growth . Now, that's the kind of foundation we're trying to build all across America . One hundred days ago, in the midst of the worst economic crisis in half a century, we passed the most sweeping economic recovery act in history -- a plan designed to save jobs, create new ones, and put money in people's pockets. It's a plan designed not only to revive the economy in the short term, but to rebuild the economy over the long term . – President Barack Obama, May 27, 2009 Nelllis Air Force Base, NV
  • Long-Term Economic Investment Immediate Economic Recovery Plan to Stimulate Economy Reduce the federal budget deficit Total voters: +14 Total voters: +22 Total voters: +48 Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. In terms of dealing with the economy, implementing a long term economic investment program to ensure America's future economic strength OR passing an economic recovery plan to immediately put people back to work and stimulate the economy OR reducing the federal budget deficit should be the higher priority. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page | Immediate recovery and long-term investments dominate deficit reduction *Note: National data from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 voters nationwide conducted November 19-23, 2008.
  • 54 38 First – Second +60 33 59 +29 -16 17 77 32 61 +26 Conservative Republicans All Voters Democrats Independents 36 60 +24 Moderate Republicans Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: In order to fully restore America's economic strength it is more important to make long-term investments that will lead to new jobs and new industries. Second Statement: In order to fully restore America's economic strength it is more important to reduce the deficit and pay down the national debt. Long-term investments far more important than watching the deficit *Note: From Democracy Corps national survey conducted March 4-8, 2009, of 1,000 2008 voters. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page |
  • 62 37 First – Second +61 41 52 +20 -25 19 80 39 59 +11 Republicans All Voters Democrats Independents Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: Our problems with energy, health care and the economy are all connected; dealing with health care costs and building a clean energy economy are a fundamental part of ensuring our long-term prosperity. Second Statement: Health care and energy are separate issues from the economy, and we should wait to tackle health care or energy reform until we have gotten the economy back on track. Voters strongly agree Obama agenda connected to economy *Note: Democracy Corps survey conducted March 25-29, 2009, of 1,000 2008 voters nationwide. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page |
  • Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page | Investing in America’s Energy Independence
  • Obama’s message and mandate forged in 2008 John McCain says we are dangerously dependent on foreign oil because Democrats like Barack Obama oppose efforts to drill for new American oil. McCain’s policies will expand U.S. oil production to reduce gas prices and build more refineries to expand our oil capacity here in the US. We should build new nuclear power plants and invest in clean coal technology, and expand alternative energy sources to achieve independence. This shouldn’t be a choice between more oil production or alternative energy. We should do both because alternative energy is the future, but right now we live in an oil and gas economy and we need more American oil. McCain Statement: Oil, Nukes and Alternatives Barack Obama says we need a new energy plan that frees America from dependence on big oil and recharges our economy by fast tracking production of clean, alternative energy like wind and solar power, which will create good American jobs. For 26 years, John McCain has been in Washington voting against investments in alternative energy to protect the oil companies. We need to end the tax breaks for big oil companies and use that money to develop alternative energy. We should drill in areas where oil companies already have leases they're not using. And we should require car companies to build more efficient cars to save drivers money. Obama Statement: From Oil to Alternative 52 43 Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the DEMOCRATIC statement or the REPUBLICAN statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,600 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008
  • 80 80 76 70 64 72 33 Give a 3 thousand dollar tax credit for each job that businesses create in America Give a 1 thousand dollar tax cut to families earning under 250 thousand dollars Ban all earmarks and pet projects in the recovery package Give aid to states so they can avoid cutting essential services like police, fire and education Extend unemployment benefits and health care coverage for those out-of-work Provide schools and colleges with computers and technology and teachers with new training Give tax refunds for businesses that lost money last year Now I am going to read you a list of proposals that Congress might include in the economic recovery package. For each one, please tell me if you favor or oppose that proposal. Energy investment top element in Economic Recovery Act 18 18 21 27 26 23 62 Require banks that receive financial bailout funds to lend money to consumers, businesses instead of using it to buy other banks Invest in alternative energy like wind, solar and bio-fuels to double its production in the next three years 88 80 11 17 *Note: Democracy Corps survey conducted January 14-19, 2009, of 1,200 likely 2010 voters in 40 Democratic-held battleground house districts.
  • Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page | The New Electorate From Two Tidal Waves
  • Now I’m going to read you a list of proposals that some people have recommended to Barack Obama and the Congress. For each one, please tell me how important it is that Obama and Congress enact this proposal. Is it extremely important, very important, just somewhat important, not at all important, or would you actively oppose that proposal? (Percent Extremely Important Shown Below) In new base, investing in renewable energy jobs most important in agenda 53% Voted for Obama 95% Voted for Obama 70% Voted for Obama 67% Voted for Obama 66% Voted for Obama *Note: Data from WVWV survey of 1300 Voters, conducted 1/22-2/3/2009. Graph numbers represent percent of each group voting for Obama in 2008. Total 2008 Electorate African Americans Unmarried Women Latino 18-29 Year Olds Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (46%) Universal Health Care (59%) Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (51%) Insurance for all Children (51%) Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (54%) Insurance for all Children (36%) Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (57%) Equal Pay for Women (48%) Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (50%) Insurance for all Children (43%) Equal Pay for Women (35%) Insurance for all Children (57%) Universal Health Care (46%) Make College/Training More Affordable (45%) Universal Health Care (41%)
  • Now I’m going to read you a list of proposals that some people have recommended to Barack Obama and the Congress. For each one, please tell me how important it is that Obama and Congress enact this proposal. Is it extremely important, very important, just somewhat important, not at all important, or would you actively oppose that proposal? (Percent Extremely Important Shown Below) Investing in clean energy and jobs most important for electoral battleground *Note: Data from WVWV survey of 1300 Voters, conducted 1/22-2/3/2009. Graph numbers represent percent of each group voting for Obama in 2008. 53% Voted for Obama 45% Voted for Obama 42% Voted for Obama 42% Voted for Obama Total 2008 Electorate Seniors White Non-College White Married Women Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (46%) Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (36%) Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (45%) Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (49%) Insurance for all Children (36%) Equal Pay for Women (32%) Insurance for all Children (34%) Insurance for all Children (36%) Equal Pay for Women (35%) Insurance for all Children (27%) Equal Pay for Women (33%) Equal Pay for Women (33%)
  • Now I’m going to read you a list of proposals that some people have recommended to Barack Obama and the Congress. For each one, please tell me how important it is that Obama and Congress enact this proposal. Is it extremely important, very important, just somewhat important, not at all important, or would you actively oppose that proposal? (Percent Extremely Important Shown Below) Investing in clean energy and jobs most important for electoral battleground 53% Voted for Obama 52% Voted for Obama 41% Voted for Obama 55% Voted for Obama *Note: Data from WVWV survey of 1300 Voters, conducted 1/22-2/3/2009. Graph numbers represent percent of each group voting for Obama in 2008. Total 2008 Electorate Independents White Non-South Rural Suburban Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (46%) Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (45%) Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (45%) Invest in Renewable Energy and Green Jobs (52%) Insurance for all Children (36%) Insurance for all Children (34%) Equal Pay for Women (30%) Universal Health Care (39%) Equal Pay for Women (35%) Equal Pay for Women (33%) Make College/ Training More Affordable (29%) Insurance for all Children (36%)
  • Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page | A Political Conversation
  • People are talking about infrastructure and investment If anything is going to help turn our economy around in the long term, it’s going to be rebuilding this infrastructure that we have to compete in the world. -- Des Moines, Non-College Man, Age 45-60 I like the fact that we are also going more to benign resources that are renewable all the time. And that’s all I was going to say. Something that is replenishable, something that we don’t need to worry about running out of, and I’m glad to see we are finally doing that. -- Des Moines, Non-College Man, Age 45-60 I think they’re, you know, when you think about the renewable energy it’s something we really haven’t spent any money on… For renewable energy source we could… be less dependent on what goes on in the Middle East and other places if we in fact did that and there are ways in which we could invest… whether or not it’s because of global warming or just because we want to create a new economy I think there’s ways in which we could do that and we could create jobs that could stay here stateside . -- St. Louis, College Man, Age 30-45 I just think… especially when he’s saying investing in renewable energy that will reduce our dependence on foreign oil… I just think that is huge because it’s going to make jobs and also I think we all don’t want to be dependent on the foreign countries for our oil and… it would be less pollution… and better for our environment and global warming so I think that’s real important to me. -- St. Louis, College Woman, Age 45-60 I kind of saw it as -- temporarily we’re going to get ourselves in this big fat debt and dig ourselves a big fat hole… and the honorable intentions we will be able to get ourselves out of debt quickly by building resources , expanding our ability for nuclear power, nuclear energy, electric cars, refining the way our economy approaches things so that we are less dependent . It’s going to be a deep hole for now, but then we’re going to get ourselves quickly out of it; that’s the hope. -- St. Louis, College Woman, Age 45-60 *Note: From transcripts of Democracy Corps focus groups conducted April 6, 2009, in St. Louis and May 4, 2009, in Des Moines.
  • We know the country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable energy will lead the 21st century. And yet, it is China that has launched the largest effort in history to make their economy energy efficient. We invented solar technology, but we've fallen behind countries like Germany and Japan in producing it. New plug-in hybrids roll off our assembly lines, but they will run on batteries made in Korea. Well I do not accept a future where the jobs and industries of tomorrow take root beyond our borders - and I know you don't either. It is time for America to lead again. Thanks to our recovery plan, we will double this nation's supply of renewable energy in the next three years… But to truly transform our economy, protect our security, and save our planet from the ravages of climate change, we need to ultimately make clean, renewable energy the profitable kind of energy. So I ask this Congress to send me legislation that places a market-based cap on carbon pollution and drives the production of more renewable energy in America. -- President Barack Obama, State of the Union February 2009
  • President Obama’s address to Congress
    • Portion on energy in President Obama’s address to Congress
    Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page |
  • [T]he American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has saved or created nearly 150,000 jobs.. building solar panels and wind turbines, making homes and buildings more energy efficient…. jobs fixing roads and bridges, jobs at start-ups and small businesses… [But] even as we clear away some of the wreckage and debris of this extraordinary recession, I've also said that our next task is making sure that this doesn't happen again. We can't return to the same bubble-and-bust economy, borrow-and-spend economy… We have to lay a new foundation for prosperity -- a foundation constructed on the pillars that will grow our economy and help America compete in the 21st century . And a renewable energy revolution is one of those pillars . We know the cost of our oil addiction all too well…. It's a cost we can't bear any longer… [T]hat's the story that will be told all across America, in cities and towns, where a shuttered factory reopens to build wind turbines; where a hospital treats patients with new technology and pulls up their history with new electronic records; where a young entrepreneur with a nest egg and a good idea starts a business and creates more jobs. That's how we move America forward. This is how we've always moved forward . It happens slowly, in fits and starts, but it always happens surely when we are dedicated to bringing about change. It happens not by chance or by luck, but because the American people keep pushing ahead -- persevering through hardship, growing through challenge, building something firmer and stronger in place of what was . That's the work we've begun in these last few months, and with your help, this is the work we will continue to do in the days and months ahead. – President Barack Obama, May 27 Nelllis Air Force Base, NV
  • Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page | But Deficits and Government Loom
  • 79 18 First – Second +71 53 44 +6 -61 12 83 45 51 -9 Republicans All Voters Democrats Independents Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement : I am more concerned that Republicans in Congress will block President Obama's effort to get the economy moving again. Second Statement : I am more concerned that President Obama will spend too much money and increase the size of government. Considerable concern about spending and size of government Data based on 851 likely 2010 voters from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 2008 voters nationwide conducted April 22 through 26, 2009
  • After promising bipartisanship, passed a stimulus plan and budget without a single Republican vote in the House Eased relations with Cuba and Iran and even shook hands with Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez Announced he would close the terrorist detention facility at Guantanamo Bay Spent over 4 trillion dollars in just his first 100 days in office, increasing the deficit to 1.8 trillion dollars this year After promising reform, signed a 400 billion dollar spending bill that included over 9 thousand earmarks Announced that he will leave up to 50,000 non-combat troops in Iraq even after the August 2010 withdrawal date Announced he would send thousands more troops to Afghanistan His treasury department wrote the loophole that allowed AIG to use taxpayer money to fund bonuses for top executives Oversaw the effective nationalization of General Motors Is proposing a global warming plan that will mean higher electricity bills for the average family Is proposing a trillion-dollar plan to expand health care through more government involvement Now I'd like to read you a list of things some people say worry them about President Obama's first 100 days in office. After I read this list I'd like you to tell me, in your own opinion, which TWO worry you the most about President Obama's first 100 days in office? Spending and deficits among biggest worries about Obama’s first 100 days None of the above Data based on 851 likely 2010 voters from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 2008 voters nationwide conducted April 22-26, 2009
  • 46 51 +4 Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement : I am more concerned that Republicans in Congress will block President Obama's effort to get the economy moving again. Second Statement : I am more concerned that President Obama will spend too much money and increase the size of government. Growing worry about spending and size of government 50 46 -5 April 2009 May 2009 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps national surveys of 1,000 2008 voters (852 likely 2010 voters in May; 851 likely 2010 voters in April) conducted May 10-12 and April 22-26, 2009. Data of 2010 likely voters only.
  • Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Obama’s attributes extraordinary, including “big spender” Fiscally irresponsible A big spender Promises things that sound good, won’t be able to get done Will raise my taxes Out of touch Too liberal Willing to work with both parties Has realistic solutions to the country’s problems Makes me feel hopeful about the future On your side Strong leader Has good plans for the economy 62 37 61 38 61 35 54 41 52 41 50 45 41 53 33 64 62 35 62 35 72 27 73 26 Data based on 851 likely 2010 voters from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 2008 voters nationwide conducted April 22-26, 2009
  • Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. Since January, Democrats maintain big advantages, but lose it on deficit The budget deficit Economy Apr. Dem – Jan. Dem +24 +15 +33 +22 -1 49 34 54 29 39 40 Health Care 52 30 58 25 49 29 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys of 1,500 likely voters in 40 Democratic and 15 Republican congressional battleground districts conducted April 16-21 and 1,200 likely voters in 40 Democratic battleground districts conducted January 14-19. Data for Democratic Districts only. +20
  • Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page | The New Electorate and Government
  • Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Questions of control, inefficiency between gov. and insurance co. First Statement : I'm more concerned that if we don't change the current system, insurance companies will continue to have too much control over my health care. Second Statement : I'm more concerned that if we change the current system, the government will end up having too much control over my health care. First Statement : When it comes to health care, insurance companies are more inefficient because they are profit-driven and spend so much money on marketing and advertising instead of providing quality care. Second Statement : When it comes to health care, the government is more inefficient because everything the government runs is rampant with waste, fraud and abuse. 49 46 46 47
  • Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. In the base, trust government over corporate *Note: Shows self-reported vote from this survey. Other graph data represents percent of group voting for Obama based on Election Day exit polls. From Democracy Corps survey of 1,013 2008 voters (890 likely 2010 voters) nationwide May 28-June 1, 2009. 49% Voted for Obama* 95% Voted for Obama 70% Voted for Obama 67% Voted for Obama 66% Voted for Obama Likely 2010 Voters African Americans Unmarried Women Latino 18-29 Year Olds First: Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 46 percent First: Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 64 percent First: Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 48 percent First: Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 59 percent First: Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 48 percent Second: Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 47 percent Second: Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 32 percent Second: Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 40 percent Second: Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 33 percent Second: Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 46 percent
  • More caution about government in the electoral battleground Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. 49% Voted for Obama* 52% Voted for Obama 50% Voted for Obama* 47% Voted for Obama* 41% Voted for Obama *Note: Shows self-reported vote from this survey. Other graph data represents percent of group voting for Obama based on Election Day exit polls. From Democracy Corps survey of 1,013 2008 voters (890 likely 2010 voters) nationwide May 28-June 1, 2009. Likely 2010 Voters Independents Dem. Congressional Gain 06/08 2010 Competitive Senate States White Non-South Rural First: Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 46 percent First: Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 38 percent First: Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 43 percent First: Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 41 percent First: Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 38 percent Second: Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 47 percent Second: Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 56 percent Second: Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 52 percent Second: Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 53 percent Second: Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 56 percent
  • More caution about government in the electoral battleground Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. 49% Voted for Obama* 42% Voted for Obama 42% Voted for Obama 41% Voted for Obama 55% Voted for Obama *Note: Shows self-reported vote from this survey. Other graph data represents percent of group voting for Obama based on Election Day exit polls. From Democracy Corps survey of 1,013 2008 voters (890 likely 2010 voters) nationwide May 28-June 1, 2009. Likely 2010 Voters White Married Women White Non-College White Seniors Suburban Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 46 percent Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 47 percent Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 40 percent Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 39 percent Concern about Insurance Company control/inefficiency: 52 percent Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 47 percent Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 46 percent Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 53 percent Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 53 percent Concern about Government control/inefficiency: 45 percent
  • Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page | Sustaining Support for Long-Term Investment the Next Big Political Project
  • Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page | www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC 10 G Street NE, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 Ph: +1 202 478 8300 Fax: +1 202 478 8301 California 50 California Street, Suite 1500 San Francisco, CA 94111 Ph: +1 415 277 5403 Fax: +1 415 358 9599 London, UK 405 Carrington House, 6 Hertford Street London, UK W1J 7SU Ph: +44 (0) 207 499 5204 Fax: +44 (0) 207 499 5284