International Institute for Applied        Systems AnalysisSystems analysis andmethodological development forapplication i...
Game Changers ProjectPartneritSitra, TEM, Huoltovarmuuskeskus, UPMKymmene, Metso, Itella, Tekes,EtlajaSanomaSkotlanninhall...
Game Changers ProjectTulokset15.6.2011J. Casti, L. Ilmola, P. Klimek, O. Lehtonen, M. Lex, J. Liesio,P. Rouvinen and U. Bi...
Epävarmuus lisääntyy                                                        Game Changer           Historia:megatrenditja ...
Game Changers 2/2010-3/2011                       Forest industry                        Planning for uncertainty G T N   ...
YhteenvetoESIMERKKEJÄTULOKSISTA
Globaalintaloudensyklisyyskasvaa             Stable& Turbulent                Volatile World             World            ...
Globaalintaloudensyklisyyskasvaa                Stable& Turbulent                 Volatile World                World     ...
Ekosysteemitselviävät                        Viestintäteknologiasektori                         Muutamansuurenyrityksenek...
Kokonaisuusratkaisee            Multiplex                                                          Globaalintalous: Multip...
Kokonaisuusratkaisee                  Multiplex                               Globaalintalous: Multiplex 2030    Scenario ...
Rytmijaajoitus                                                                           Viestintäteknologiasektori       ...
Epävarmuuseiuhka, vaanmenestystekijä                       1. NICHE FOCUS         2. NETWORKED OPERATIONS                 ...
Mitenmenestytäänyllätystenmaailmassa?AUTOMAATTINEN SOPEUTUMINENRakenne• Kansallinen portfolio: painopistealueistadiversifi...
Mitenmenestytäänyllätystenmaailmassa?KASVU• Nopeus   •   Tilastoistatoimintaympäristönseurantaa   •   Muutoksenhidastamise...
Seven Innovation Strategies?        Stable& Turbulent Volatile World Multiplex              WorldScen                     ...
Space of Uncertainty Process 1. Game changers – key uncertainties      GC list      Web enquiry 2. Extreme worlds      Des...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Xeventsin ”Game Changers Project” -hankkeen tuloksista yllätyksiin varautumisessa - Leena Ilmola

386

Published on

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
386
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Unknown unknown areaWe started the project by listing a long list of questions, this was to focus ECONOMY AND FINANCE
  • Unknown unknown areaWe started the project by listing a long list of questions, this was to focus ECONOMY AND FINANCE
  • What is going to happen next?What will be the final deliverable (description) and how it can be usedValidation
  • What is going to happen next?What will be the final deliverable (description) and how it can be usedValidation
  • Kysymys:Kasvu?Markkinat hoitaa?
  • Xeventsin ”Game Changers Project” -hankkeen tuloksista yllätyksiin varautumisessa - Leena Ilmola

    1. 1. International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisSystems analysis andmethodological development forapplication in critical areas ofglobal change – major focus:POPULATIONENERGYLAND USE & FORESTRYEVOLUTION & ECOLOGYATMOSPHERICPOLLUTION &MITIGATIONDISASTER & RISKFunded by 19 nations.
    2. 2. Game Changers ProjectPartneritSitra, TEM, Huoltovarmuuskeskus, UPMKymmene, Metso, Itella, Tekes,EtlajaSanomaSkotlanninhallitus www.iiasa.ac.at
    3. 3. Game Changers ProjectTulokset15.6.2011J. Casti, L. Ilmola, P. Klimek, O. Lehtonen, M. Lex, J. Liesio,P. Rouvinen and U. BilgeJ. Honkatukia, P. Ormerod, A. Salo, S. Thurner, M. Tynkkynen, M. WileniusIIASA Exploratory Projects/ Xevents www.iiasa.ac.at
    4. 4. Epävarmuus lisääntyy Game Changer Historia:megatrenditja trenditHuhuun perustuvien tappioiden syntyminen Espanjan Lehman Brothersin 9/2008 vihannesviennille, tairanskalaisten maanviljelijöiden konkurssin todennaköisyys oli myynnin romahtaminen 90%, 0,00000000000000000000007 ei saanut mitaan todennäköisyyttä.
    5. 5. Game Changers 2/2010-3/2011 Forest industry Planning for uncertainty G T N Global economic Com. technology Ind. Ecosystem simulation Ind. ecosystem simulation s system 2030? i m Mitä kaikki tämä u Structural Life Science vaikuttaa pienen l scenarios Planning for uncertainty avoimen talouden a kilpailukykyyn? t o Food & drink r Planning for uncertainty Game Changers Digitalization Tools for attribution theory 5
    6. 6. YhteenvetoESIMERKKEJÄTULOKSISTA
    7. 7. Globaalintaloudensyklisyyskasvaa Stable& Turbulent Volatile World World Globaalitalousjärjestelmä2030Scenario inbrief  Syklisyyskasvaa  Tempo tiivistyy The structure of the global The global economic economy is hierarchical system is unpredictable (one world or blocs). and behavior is very  Kaikenkattavastasuunnittelustasykl Economy is pretty stable volatile. Small change in inmukaiseenstrategiaanjatoiminta (rules) until the shock of external or internal power centers causes huge conditions may cause a malliin turbulence. major shift in the behavior.Prerequi Fast climate change, Global growth period 2010-sites resource scarcity severe, 2020, technology capitalism (financial system) development fast (does not fails in some areas solve scarcityproblems)Drivers Globalization, many relatively Knowledge drives economy, strong nations, strong quantum computing, zero ideologies, clash of cultures, energy sources , global political power strong, wars financial system collapsed, (trade/military conflicts) globalization is over, no reliance on policy makersStructure Strong IPR, public sector role Open source development,drivers strong, climate change is successful global operations mitigated,/failure, resource track record scarcity, no ideologies
    8. 8. Globaalintaloudensyklisyyskasvaa Stable& Turbulent Volatile World World Globaalitalousjärjestelmä2030Scen arioin brief  Syklisyyskasvaa  Tempo tiivistyy The structure of the global The global economic economy is hierarchical (one system is unpredictable world or blocs). Economy is and behavior is very  Kaikenkattavastasuunnittelustasykl pretty stable (rules) until the volatile. Small change in external or internal inmukaiseenstrategiaanjatoiminta shock of power centers causes huge turbulence. conditions may cause a malliin major shift in the behavior. China Germany Scenario - Finland Sectors Export Performance in 2030 difference from baseline (bn USD) Top 20 kauppasimulaattori  Muttavaikutuksetsaattavat0.4 ollavähäisiäkin0.30.20.1  Kaikkeeneikannatareagoida, pitkätstabii 0 Paper products litkaudetovatmyösmahdollisia-0.1 Motor vehicles, parts-0.2 Petroleum, coal products-0.3 Ferrous metals-0.4 Machinery and equipment Wood products-0.5 Chemical, rubber, plastic Electronic equipments-0.6 Mineral products-0.7
    9. 9. Ekosysteemitselviävät Viestintäteknologiasektori  Muutamansuurenyrityksenekosyste emituottaakasvua, mutta on herkkämuutoksille  Tuoteinnovointituottaaresilienssiä, muttaeikasvua  Josepävarmuudetlisääntyvät, pient enyritystenverkosto on parempirakennemalli Skotlannin Food & Drink  Kehittyneetkorkeanjalostusarvonal atherkkiämuutoksille  Perusteollisuuskestäämuutoksest  Toimivaekosysteemikoostuutoisens atasapainottavistayrityksistä
    10. 10. Kokonaisuusratkaisee Multiplex Globaalintalous: Multiplex 2030Scenario  Montaerimarkkinaa, joillahyvinein brief rilainenkäyttäytymistapa>erilais etmenestystekijät  Systeeminhäiriät/muutoksetlevi Global system consists of different domains with different structures and ävätkaikkialle behaviours. Uncertainty and systemic behavior. Each domain has  Globaalintoimijan on its own dynamics, but it is possible that small changes cascade through hallittavakaikkitoimintamoodit systemPrerequi Assymmetric development (local/sectorsites specific regulation, bloc development, standardization, climate change agreements, polarization)Drivers Diverse set of drivers, domain specific, systemic drivers, external shocks cascading throughout the systemStructure Role of public sector, Internationaldrivers regulation, polarization of growth
    11. 11. Kokonaisuusratkaisee Multiplex Globaalintalous: Multiplex 2030 Scenario  Montaerimarkkinaa, in brief joillahyvinerilaisetmenestystekijät  Systeeminhäiriöt/muutoksetleviävä tkaikkialle Global system consists of different domains with different structures and behaviours. Uncertainty and  Globaalintoimijan on systemic behavior. Each domain has hallittavakaikkitoimintamoodit its own dynamics, but it is possible that small changes cascade Vienninrakenne through system  MoninaisuustuottaamyoskasvuaLOCALIZED PRODUCTION SCALE FREE PORTFOLIOSInvest in small production Integrate printing paperunits close to the deinked industry with Globaalimetsäteollisuuspulp and large markets. biorefineries. Use wood >Joustava portfolio: sekämassa-Micro mills in cities make also for producing other tuotantoaettäräätälöityjäbisneksiäquick re-cycling possible. high-value products and by-products.Organize own recycled Concentrate on big  Kestäväportfolio on moni-paper collection and production units in low muotoinen, myöstoimintatavoiltaansorting company cost areas. Vertical integration.Search partners for printing UseMultiple revenuepaper company fusions. possibilities .
    12. 12. Rytmijaajoitus Viestintäteknologiasektori  Mitäkovemmatinnovaatiovaatimuks et, sitäparempi  Tietoinenfokuserilaisillenopeanryt mininnovaatiomarkkinoille 100000000 90000000 Painetunviestinnändigitalisoituminen 80000000E-BOOK SALES IN US  Ekosysteeminrakentaminen vie 70000000 aikaa 60000000 50000000 40000000  Jos kasvuahalutaan, eikannata olla 30000000 pioneeri 20000000 10000000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 http://www.publishers.org/main/IndustryStats/documents/S12008Final.pdf
    13. 13. Epävarmuuseiuhka, vaanmenestystekijä 1. NICHE FOCUS 2. NETWORKED OPERATIONS 3. COMBINATIONS 4. LARGE COLLABORATION 5. CLIMATE CHANGE SPECIALIST 6. SELF FUNDING 7. RADICAL INNOVATION Globaalimetsäteollisuus, SkotlanninFo 8. NHS COLLABORATION od&Drinkja Life Scences 9. HARD TO COPY 10. INFLUENCE EU MARKET 11. SPECIALISED PARTNER 12. PIONEER SCOTLAND  Epävarmuuksiensystemaattinenan 13. OPEN SOURCE SCOTLAND alyysituottaajoustavuutta 14. PRICE AND QUALITY15. FROM PHARMA TO I.T INTEGRATION 16. HYBRID KNOWLEDGE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Portfolio size Portfolio Radical Innov. Climate change Networked specialist New operations Influence EU market Specialized partner Self funding  Haasteenaei ole Open source Scotland riskienminimointivaanmahdollisuuk Hard to Copy Hybrid knowledge sienmaksimointi! Current Niche Focus Large collaboration NHS collaboration IT integration Combinations Price and quality Pioneer Scotland Core Contingent 13
    14. 14. Mitenmenestytäänyllätystenmaailmassa?AUTOMAATTINEN SOPEUTUMINENRakenne• Kansallinen portfolio: painopistealueistadiversifiointiin• Suurteollisuudestaekosysteemeihin• MassatuotannostapientenerilaistenbisnestenportfolioonOhjaus• FokusoidustastrategiastasyklinmukaiseentoimintaanOikeatvalinnat• Investoinnit? - Koulutus? - Tuotantorakenne?
    15. 15. Mitenmenestytäänyllätystenmaailmassa?KASVU• Nopeus • Tilastoistatoimintaympäristönseurantaa • Muutoksenhidastamisestainnovaatiovauhdin (jakonkurssien) suosimiseen • Teknologiainnovaatioistanopeaanvanhanjauudenkombinointiin• Kompleksisuus • Kombinaatiot (perustutkimus) • Monimuotoinenrakenne • Julkisenjayksityisensektorinyhteinentarjoamavientimarkkinoille• Lyhytaikainenkasvu • Resurssienuudelleenallokointi
    16. 16. Seven Innovation Strategies? Stable& Turbulent Volatile World Multiplex WorldScen 2. Follower. 1. Growth. • Specialized partner of globalario networks. • Diversification of the offering ofin brief large RCA companies. • Basic research for wide 3. Speed . • Exclusivity of competence set • Focus on high speed innovation products, combinations of old • Unique combinations in The global economic system sectors. and novel technology education. Global system consists of The structure of the global • Agile allocation of resources • Active initiator. is unpredictable and behavior different domains with different (resource pools, facilitators) economy is hierarchical (one is very volatile. Small change structures and behaviours. risk • Funds; Bankrupt insurance, world or blocs). Economy is4. Platform. in external or internal Uncertainty and systemic insurance, AAF• IT infrastructurestable (rules) until the pretty (super computing) conditions may cause a behavior. Each domain has its • Innovation stock shock of power centers causes• Regulation (open source, virtual major shift in the behavior. own dynamics, but it is possible huge turbulence. production, mode defined that small changes cascade 5. New ecosystems taxation) through system . • Insurance portfolio • New sector definitionsPrerequi Fast climate change, resource scarcity Global growth period 2010-2020, Assymmetric development arrow • Low GVA ecosystem + • Bilaterial agreementssites severe, capitalism (financial system) technology development fast (does head companies fails in some areas not solve scarcityproblems) • By-products, multipurpose 6. Designer. production • Modes management, cycle • Domestic demanddomain specificDrivers Globalization, many relatively strong scanning, contingent Knowledge drives economy, quantum Diverse set of drivers, nations, strong ideologies, clash of computing, zero energy sources , • Diverse usage of resources instruments 7. Portfolio. cultures, political power strong, wars global financial system collapsed, • Gradual path to • Role shifting concepts; public • Export portfolio – complex (trade/military conflicts) globalization is over, no reliance on entrepreneurship and private services policy makers • Integration of public and • Diversification ofStructure Strong IPR, public sectorin value private resources role strong, sectors, competences and GVA Open source development, climate Role of public sectordrivers successful global operations track chains intensity change is mitigated,/failure, resource record • Surprise management scarcity, no ideologies
    17. 17. Space of Uncertainty Process 1. Game changers – key uncertainties GC list Web enquiry 2. Extreme worlds Descriptions of extreme worlds/markets dominated by the uncertainty p1 x7 p2 x3 x4 p3 3. Success strategies for extreme x1 x2 x5 worlds x6 List of activities, capabilities or development items that produce success in the extreme RPM method for Portfolio world quantitative New activities analysis that seem to New be relevant in many extreme Watch List 4. Assessment of activities’ benefits situations Web enquiry Activities that Current Current are valid in activities that many extreme are sensitive situations for change 5. Potential portfolio that will produce Core Contingent success what-so-ever happens
    1. A particular slide catching your eye?

      Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

    ×