Election 2012
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Election 2012

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Election 2012 Election 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • FinalResults
  • Compare electionresults with web site predictions
  • Whichpollperformed thebest?
  • The Most Correct Pundit(s) In All the LandPrize: Gold StarsTo give credit where its due, three of our predictors, two of whom might not generally fall in the "pundit"category, got the electoral vote breakdown just right. They deserve gold medals, but since this is just a blogpost, they will have to settle with their names in bold, bullet points, and the title of best ever. Also deserving ofthis medal is our one pundit who got the closest to nailing the popular vote. ● Nate Silver. You have probably already heard about how well this New York Timess number cruncher did this election season. But now that its official, official, we can officially call him the most accurate electoral college predictor of 2012, with his 332-206 breakdown, including the close race in Florida. He also did pretty well on popular vote, which RealClearPolitics has at 50.4 to 48. His came in at 50.8 to 48.3. Not bad. ● Markos Moulitsas, The Daily Kos. He came to the right conclusion with the following logic. "Currently, national polling assumes a big dropoff from registered voters to likely voters. I dont believe thatll be the case," he wrote. And, while it looks like voter turnout was lower than 2008, his prediction still came out right. Well done. ● Drew Linzer, Emory. Using a statistical model, this political science professor got it right. Math for the win, again. ● Jamelle Bouie, The American Prospect. He didnt get the electoral college right, giving Florida to Mitt. But he did get closest to the popular vote with a prediction of 50.4 to 48.2.
  • NATE SILVER http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
  • Markos Moulitsashttp://www.dailykos.com
  • Drew Linzer, Emoryhttp://votamatic.org Got Electorial Vote and Map correct
  • Jamelle Bouie http://propect.orgPresident Obama will win reelection and keep every state where he currentlyholds a lead. It looks like Obama will lose around 2.5 points from his nationalvote share in 2008.This is a bit crude, but if you subtract that from his 2008 totals in every swingstate, you end up with this map, and my prediction for November 6:An Obama win in New Hampshire, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado,and NevadaRomney wins in North Carolina and Florida.That means the president claims 303 electoral votes to Romney’s 235, and heekes out a popular-vote victory of 50.4 percent to Romney’s 48.2.How do I figure all that? Averaging the polling averages,Obama holds greater than 2-point leads in Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, andNew Hampshire.Likewise, Romney holds a greater than 2-point lead in North Carolina and aslight advantage in Florida.