Osimo fp7consult13072010def
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Presentation at Constituency workshop FP7 European Commission

Presentation at Constituency workshop FP7 European Commission

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  • Power law distribution, Tipping points, Cascade effects Liquid modernity, Flat world, Chaos theory Permanent instability and critical state
  • Social simulation and models are blackbox, fragmented and single-purpose; built by domain computational science specialist, at high cost for involving lateral domain experts or interested stakeholders. Designing, reviewing and updating formal models from qualitative and quantitative data is costly
  • Present: collaborative policy making requires in-depth understanding and attention, and involves only a self-selected micro-elites of participants with total separation from non-participants and risks of group thinking. When large-scale participation occurs, input is often of low value or confrontational and data processing is mostly human, at high cost. Costs of engagement and analysis remain high, and online-discussion too separated from mainstream priorities even in cases where online collaboration happens, little real-world action derives. Even when ICT provides sufficient evidence, this does not translate into concrete action by government and citizens, because of confirmation bias, risk aversion, lack of attention, lack of incentives – as in the case of climate change.
  • Budget restrictions discussed openly through simulation and visualization techniques that also show long-term impacts. Cross-country multilingual implications are made visible in the debate to avoid NIMBY-effects. More engaged people (Lisa Simpson) are able to manipulate simulation based on open data and models to provide alternative views and high-quality input, and to reach out to interested citizens through collaborative filtering tools. Less engaged people (Bart Simpson) can quickly grasp the key issues making use of data curation and visualization tools easily created by the different stakeholders, and by checking the opinion of high-reputation experts (Lisa) trusted by friends. Maximum usage is made of short, limited attention spans and passive behaviors. Collective preferences are captured by formal input and informal behaviour such as satisfaction with specific services, opinion mining, instant and context-aware feedback collection about specific services – respecting for privacy When making public expenditure-relevant choices such as attending emergency services for normal illnesses, citizens have immediate intuitive feedback on the simulation of the impact of their choices, at personal and systemic level, such as the cost generated and tax implications. Social networking and gaming applications engage users to save on public services by showing performances over time and comparison with local community. Government decision-makers are fully accountable through simulation based on linked public data that show the impact of different option, including non-action.
  • 07/13/10 06:43 © 2007 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries. The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

Osimo fp7consult13072010def Osimo fp7consult13072010def Presentation Transcript

  • David Osimo (Tech4i2) & Yannis Charalabidis (NTUA) EC Constituency Building WS – Brussels, 13 th July 2010
    • The rationale of ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling
    • The State of the Art: definition and taxonomy of ICT for G&PM
    • The 4 Grand Challenges
    • The emerging research challenges, and key actors
    • Next steps - how you can collaborate
    • Rising number of tipping points, unpredictable “black swan” events: (financial and economic crisis; terrorist attacks, volcano ash cloud; large scale black-out; climate change)
    • Can’t be adequately addressed by traditional econometric models
    • Explosion in authorship, co-creation and collaboration
      • Mass collaboration and participation
      • Open data, open innovation models
      • Government 2.0
      • More intelligence and more stupidity, more signal and more noise
  • Source: Helbing 2010
  •  
  •  
  • USER: Citizen & Government Decision and action Collaborative production Social networking Civic hacking Visualiz. for behavioural change Serious games Data representation Visual analytics Augmented reality Natural User Interface Argument mapping Multi-channel Data analysis Non-linear models Social simulation Forecasting Models interoperability Opinion mining Data validation Collaborative filtering Reputation management systems Authentication / Security Privacy Social Network Analysis Data collection Sensors / IoT / smart cities Open gov / linked data Citizens generated data Serious Games Cloud Data Exposure PRODUCER: Citizen & Government
    • Grand challenges have to:
    • Be understandable, visual and inspire research idea
    • Be bold and disruptive but strongly rooted in SoA and addressable by 2020
    • Contain significant critical mass of research
    • Address gaps across Research Themes
    • The proposed grand challenges:
    • Model-based governance
    • Data-powered behavioural change
    • Government Service Utility
    • Scientific base of ICT-assisted governance
    • Today forecast of policy impact
    • Costly due to large human effort; using mainly econometric models; unable to account for human behavior and tipping points.
    • Today policy modelling and simulation
    • Micro-level, fragmented, single-purpose; by computational scientist separately from domain experts and software engineers
    • Pervasive and joined-up simulation for policy impact assessment: impact assessment for deciding how to optimize garbage collection in a medium city;
    • model-building and simulation carried out the responsible civil servan t based on pre-built models, in collaboration with domain expert through a model-as-a-service software;
    • Macro-model are dynamically integrated with micro models of other institutional levels and sectors;
    • Models are evolving , accounting for input from massive amounts of data, structured (from RFID in garbage bags) and non-structured (feedback from citizens behavior and opinion);
    • model and data are exposed in a transparent and privacy-compliant manner;
    • simulations account for human behaviour , anticipate possible tipping points, domino effects
    • Composable and re-usable models
    • Model validation tools
    • Integrated multi-modeling tools
    • Intuitive interface for model building and simulation
    • Integration – consolidation of a range of existing modeling techniques, i.e. qualitative analytic models with behavioral models
    • Easy access to knowledge bases and their integration:
    • post hoc - read and understand arguments
    • ex ante - consultation based on understand evidence
    • Ensuring outputs are representable so that participating stakeholders are able to understand models and outcomes
    • Mass-participation online - an aspect of representation
  •  
  • “ with the ideal of naked transparency alone--our democracy…is doomed…Limited attention span will assure that the most salient is the most stable. Unwarranted conclusions will be drawn, careers will be destroyed, alienation will grow.” Lawrence Lessig 2009 Participants Type of engagement Lisa Simpson Bart Simpson Conversation Today 2020 Action and behavioural change 2020 2020
    • Open discussion through simulation by open data and models.
    • More engaged people (Lisa Simpson) to manipulate data and simulation to provide alternative views and to collaborate
    • Less engaged people (Bart Simpson) have progressive forms of participation through third party visualization tools, and by checking the opinion of trusted high-reputation experts (Lisa)
    • Maximum usage is made of short, limited attention spans
    • Citizen choice simulation: When using public services, citizens have immediate feedback on their impact of their choices , at personal and systemic level, such as the cost and taxes.
    • Social networking and gaming engage users to save on public services by showing performances over time and comparison.
    • Government decision-makers are fully accountable through simulation and open data that show the impact of different options, including non-action.
    • Massive data exposure and interoperability
    • Collaborative multidimensional visualization of large datasets
    • Data and content curation tools for intermediaries
    • Attention management tools to leverage maximum participation
    • Techno/psychological research on leveraging incentives to participation and crowdsourcing (rage, fun, vanity…)
    • Institutional process design for massive collaboration
    • Synchronized, cross-platform and cross-device reputation management system for quality and relevance filtering
    • Context aware, real time bi-directional participation tools
    • Cross-validation of objective and subjective data for behavioural change
  •  
    • Present:
    • Traditional public services have not delivered their promised added value or lived up to the expectations of citizens and businesses for real cost-effective, one stop-shop provisions.
    • Citizens rarely have direct access to create personalized services , they actually need at their own means for personal, civic or business use.
    • Future:
    • Services are converging and moving from the physical into the digital world, universally accessible on any device, be it a smartphone, tablet, personal computer, digital radio or high-definition television.
    • Government clouds are still in their infancy hindering their actual potential on service provision and still having to overcome potential risks related to interoperability, privacy and security.
    • Future Internet appears as a key enabler for “real” public service systems, since it offers a unique capability to collaborate at design time, engineer and aggregate services originally offerred for public, private, personal and civic use in real time from multiple devices.
    Samos, July 7 th , 2 010
    • Present:
    • Traditional public services have not delivered their promised added value or lived up to the expectations of citizens and businesses for real cost-effective, one stop-shop provisions.
    • Citizens rarely have direct access to create personalized services they actually need at their own means for personal, civic or business use.
    • Future:
    • Services are converging and moving from the physical into the digital world, universally accessible on any device, be it a smartphone, tablet, personal computer, digital radio or high-definition television.
    • Government clouds are still in their infancy hindering their actual potential on service provision and still having to overcome potential risks related to interoperability, privacy and security.
    • Future Internet appears as a key enabler for “real” public service systems, since it offers a unique capability to collaborate at design time, engineer and aggregate services originally offerred for public, private, personal and civic use in real time from multiple devices.
    “ Public Services should be available in 1 second by 1 access point with a total cost of 1 euro, in ways the citizens prefer ”
    • Citizens can utilize real-time context-aware public services to compose interoperable, complex service systems in their everyday life
    • Multiple government, private and hybrid clouds manipulate massive data provided by citizens, that can be cross-checked by federated registries and validated by ubiquitous devices in various occasions for tax clearance purposes
    • The Government Service Utility allows for service composition and consumption from the Public Sector, private enterprises and citizens in parallel (service co-generation), similar to the power utilities
    • Pa rticipative service design and engineering tools,
    • Real-time negotiation and collaboration
    • (Real-time) Large-scale visualization
    • Cloud interoperability
    • Legal framework for open data
    • Privacy mechanisms,
    • Massive data protection protocols
    • Content tracking and tracing
    • Authentication
    • Unified service delivery (desktop, mobile, internet of services)
  •  
    • A first approach for a scientific base, may opt for:
    • The taxonomy of ICT-enabled governance concepts (facets, subjects, methods, sub-domains)
    • Formal methods for categorising and analysing problems and solutions (candidates: sets, vectors, categories, information flow, pattern theories)
    • Metrics and Assessment models for ICT in Governance
    • Decision Support & Simulation Tools (supporting problem-solution relation, utilising BPM/BPR tools, vertical approaches)
    • ICT for Government Testing Facilities
    • Training Curricula
    Samos, July 7 th , 2 010
    • We need the collaborative effort of all actors to deliver the paradigm shift and make a difference on how policy-making is delivered
    • CROSSROAD launched, in addition to the Expert Scientific Committee, a Government and and Industry group - open for new subscriptions
    • Publish first draft roadmap Sept 2010
    • First draft roadmap presented in ICT 2010
    • Online voting on each research challenge based on:
      • Importance of the impact
      • Original research effort
    • Final roadmap with policy recommendations Dec 2010
    • Join the open, collaborative roadmapping!
    • www.crossroad-eu.net ;
    • #xroad @crossroad-eu on Twitter;
    • Linkedin group Crossroad-EU
  • David Osimo Tech4i2 [email_address]
  •  
  • [Athens], [12 th January 2010] From wp1: SoA research From wp3: grand challenges MONTH 12
  • Policy modeling and simulation Large-scale co-production Collaborative evaluation Visualization Open data Visual analytics Social/world modeling Sector-specific modeling
    • For government: enhance system and long-term thinking; anticipate future risks; better crisis management; more effective service provision;
    • For citizens: more influence; better services; cross-cultural dialogue
    • For industry: growing market
    To be revised
  • Time Impact Today Samos, July 7 th , 2 010 External Enhancement & Exploration Popularisation Wave 3 Industrial quality solutions. Communication and marketing towards broader communities. Substantiation of value. Development and Extension Internal Enhancement & Exploration Wave 2 Stabilisation of models and tools. Population of solution scenaria. Impact assessment and simulation. Training curriculum. Concept Formulation Foundational Principles Wave 1 Ability to identify and describe problems and solutions. Research community establishment. Convergence on initial concepts.
  • Theme Model-based Data-powered change Utility Gov Science base Transparency Linked data collaboration Visual analytics Open data Visual analytics Linked data X Social Computing Expertise identification Large scale collaboration X Collaborative policy modelling Qualitative data in models Collaboration in modelling simulation Usability and collaboration in models X Trust Privacy and Identity mgmt Privacy Identity X Future Internet Cloud IoS IoT Cloud Ios IoT Ios Iot Interoperability X
  • Epistemology Scientific Methods Multid: Computer Science Multid: Social Sciences Multid: Management Science Theme Model-based Data-powered change Utility Gov Science base Transparency Linked data collaboration Visual analytics Open data Visual analytics Linked data X Social Computing Expertise identification Large scale collaboration X Collaborative policy modelling Qualitative data in models Collaboration in modelling simulation Usability and collaboration in models X Trust Privacy and Identity mgmt Privacy Identity X Future Internet Cloud IoS IoT Cloud Ios IoT Ios Iot Interpoerability X
  • Location, Date
  • More people and scientist involved (Gov20 and EBPM) More accurate analytical, modeling and simulation tools More data available (the data deluge) 2010 2020