Crossroad roadmap ict2010

David Osimo, Yannis Charalabidis ICT 2010 Networking Session Brussels, September 2 7 th , 2010

Society increasingly interconnected, flexible, fast-evolving, unpredictable
Governance often silos-based, linear, obscure, hierarchical, over-simplified
Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010 Policies Health R&D Social Disciplines Economics Mathematics ICT Actors Government Citizens Industry

More people involved More accurate analytical, modeling and simulation tools More data available 2010 2030 Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010

Model-based collaborative governance Data-powered collective intelligence and action Government service utility Science base of ICT enabled governance Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010

State of the art: research push Future scenarios: demand pull Gaps Grand challenges (draft) Research challenges Research challenges Research roadmap (final) Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010

Toda’sy policy modeling:
Large human effort > only on major policy decisions (e.g. REACH directive);
using mainly econometric models and overlooking human behaviour; unable to account for human behavior and tipping points.
Social simulation and agent-based models are marginal, black-box, fragmented and single-purpose; built by domain computational science specialist, at high cost for involving lateral domain experts or interested stakeholders. Progress in modeling software has not matched advances in computing power (Post).
Designing, reviewing and updating formal models from qualitative and quantitative data is costly.
Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010

Integrated, composable and reusable models
models composability and interoperability (between software and modelling methods) to build on existing models
Short term research: definition of procedures for composition and repositories
Long term research: model interoperability and SOA / GRID
Collaborative modelling
intuitive model building and simulation tools to allow all stakeholders to take part in transparent formal modelling at large scale
Short term: transparent and intuitive modelling interfaces
Long-term: mass-collaboration modelling framework
Easy access to information and knowledge creation
methods of information elicitation that, during the overall model building and use processes, will help decision makers to learn how a certain system works and ultimately gain insights (knowledge) and understanding (apply the extracted knowledge from those processes) in order to successfully implement a desired policy.
Short-term: interoperability of data sources, information elicitation
Long-term: user-behavior information generation; mass-interactive learning environments

Model validation
Reliability of models plays a crucial role in policy modeling and simulation. A policy model should be developed for a specific purpose (or context) and its validity is to be determined with respect to that purpose (or context). Therefore, specific and integrated techniques and ICT tools are required to be developed for policy modeling, (conceptual and software validation )
Short-term: Consolidation of validation techniques
Long-term: complex and large scale model validation; artificial intelligence incorporated in validation systems
Interactive simulation
It allows a researcher to interactively control simulations and perform data analysis while avoiding many of the pitfalls associated with the traditional batch/post processing cycle.
Short-term: Usability
Long-term: Input/output system integration, Computational steering
Output analysis and knowledge synthesis
the analysis and integration of feedbacks in modelling and simulation process
Short-term: DOE for policy model simulation, ranking techniques
Long-term: sophisticated variance estimators, automated output analysis

Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010 Layer Research Challenge Collaboration and Action User-generated simulation and gaming for public action New institutional design for collaborative governance Analysis and representation Collaborative visual analytics for policy-making Peer-to-peer public opinion mining Data collection and validation Federated dynamic identity management Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data Privacy compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy design and evaluation Lisa Simpson Bart Simpson Conversation Today 2030 Action 2030 2030

Privacy-compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy-making
Dramatically increasing the data availability for policy evaluation while maintaining privacy and ensuring policy inference
Short term: combination of sensing with social network analysis, data quality verification, context verification;
Long term: privacy by design; enhanced analytical techniques to respond to subtle events; data collaboration protocols
Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data
Simplifying and lowering costs of real-time open data publication, ensuring data quality and advanced privacy monitoring
Short-term: data vocabularies; data curating tools; easy linked data publication
Long-term: on the fly data quality agreements, web of data, real-time validation and publication

Federated dynamic identity management
Necessary to ensure trustful collaboration, federated across country, with multiple levels of security for different services, relying on authentic sources, usable in private sector context.
Short-term: Dynamic user-controlled data disclosure; culturally-dependent identity systems; trust negotiation
Long-term: context dependent identity management
Peer-to-peer public opinion mining
The limits of human attention, combined to the existing simple interfaces available for browsing discussion and comments, often leads to low levels of engagement and flaming wars, driving to polarisation of arguments and enhanced risks of conflicts.
Short-term research: computer-generated cross-language policy corpora; algorithms for policy statistical analysis; comment recommendation algorithms
Long-term research: integration with social network analysis; audiovisual mining; peer-to-peer usable opinion mining tools;

Intuitive, collaborative visual analytics of data for policy-making
Visual analytics is particularly effective when dealing with complex and non-predictable patterns, such as those related to assessing and anticipating public policy impact, but is not formalised in the policy context
Short-term research: Collaborative platform display; Interaction between visualization and models; Visualization infrastructures for policy modelling issues
Long-term research: Bias identification; learning adaptive algorithm for users’ intent; intuitive affordable interfaces for citizens
User-generated simulation and gaming tools for public action
Simulation and serious gaming impact on personal incentives to action and showing long-term and systemic effects of individual choices, but lack open scenarios based on personal and policy decision as well as usability
Short-term: kit-based citizens-controlled simulation and gaming; integration with policy models
Long-term: augmented reality in policy gaming and simulation
New institutional design of collaborative governance

GC 3 GC 1 GC 2 State Citizens Citizens Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010

Present:
Traditional public services have not delivered on their promise for time, quality, cost, or overall return on investment
Citizens rarely have access to personalised services in the way they want
Service design cannot tap into citizen or SME’s productivity. Services practically remain the same as new service creation is hindered
Future:
Services are converging and moving from the physical into the digital world, universally accessible on any device from all social groups
Government clouds are overcoming interoperability, privacy and security challenges and provide the base for high automation in public sectors
Future Internet appears as a key enabler for new public service systems, drastically altering productivity, speed, cost and overall quality
The 1-1-1 Concept : every service can be provided in one stop, one second, with one euro cost Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010

Ubiquitous nature : electricity is available everywhere, if you have a proper line and device to connect
Usability : it is simple to connect to electricity network, provided you have an electric device with a standard plug (different from country to country, sometimes)
Federation : you don’t really know where / how energy is created within a complex network that cross borders, sectors
Co-generation : you can be a customer and a provider, at the same time
De-regulation : although Governments set the regulations and may own some utilities, the market is competitive
Multi-channel service provision Simplicity, interoperability, inclusion Public Clouds Service co-creation Service supply deregulation See also “6 common characteristics of service utilities (Rappa, 2004)”: Necessity, Reliability, Usability, Utilisation, Scalability and Exclusivity. Electricity Provision Service Provision Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010

GSU
Core Services
Identification
Security
Communication
Storage
Execution
Open Data
Registry Services
Citizen Registry
Health Registry
Financial Registry
Cadastre
Social Security
Education
Professional Chamber
Complex Services
Taxation
Health
Education
Social Security
Benefits / subsidies
Representation / Participation
Information Services
Open data
Semantic services
Knowledge management
Service Aggregation Service Provision
Enterprises, SME’s, VSE’s
Finance
Growth
Work and Social Security
Representation
Information
Citizens
Citizenship
Health
Education
Work and Social Security
Representation / Participation
Finance
Information
Other / Cross Country GSU’s
PanEuropean Core Services
PanEuropean Registry Services
Cross-country services
Highly automated
cross-GSU Services
Private Service Utilities
Administrations
CoreServices
Registry Services
Public Sector (web) Services
Planning
Monitoring
Open Data
Service Creation Service Consumption Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010

The public Service Store: The Government Service Utility allows for service composition and consumption from the Public Sector, private enterprises and citizens in parallel (service co-generation)
The society-driven town hall (self-service government): Citizens utilize real-time context-aware public services to compose interoperable, complex service systems in their everyday life
Fight against corruption: Multiple government, private and hybrid clouds manipulate massive data provided by citizens, that can be cross-checked by federated registries and validated by ubiquitous devices
Crisis Management: Services can be provided through multiple channels, allowing for cloud infrastructure sharing and load balancing in times of crisis

Digital public services value proposition for all
Reshape digital public services objectives, scope and means
Create a value proposition model for all stakeholders
User-driven innovation shaping Public Services
Service co-design, co-generation, mashing and deployment
Citizen generated ideas for new services
Change the “DNA” of Public Services
Cloud – based service provision, high automation, interoperability
Multichannel provision, internet of things
Services in one second, one stop, at one euro cost
Massive Public Information as a Service
Utilisation of public information and knowledge

Present:
Although a lot of solutions are being developed and applied, there is a lack of systematisation of the domain, hindering re-use of practices, gradual refinement and evolution
Relations with neighboring domains are not explored, resulting in unnecessary duplications or lack of cooperation
Future:
ICT-enabled governance is maturing into a well-established discipline, integrating social sciences, management, operational research and ICT
Classification of research approaches, applications, problems and solution paths supports gradual evolution
The research community is constantly updating the objectives and challenges of the domain, utilising new ICT developments for the good of the society

Time Impact Today Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010 External Enhancement & Exploration Popularisation Wave 3 Industrial quality solutions. Communication and marketing towards broader communities. Substantiation of value. Development and Extension Internal Enhancement & Exploration Wave 2 Stabilisation of models and tools. Population of solution scenaria. Impact assessment and simulation. Training curriculum. Concept Formulation Foundational Principles Wave 1 Ability to identify and describe problems and solutions. Research community establishment. Convergence on initial concepts.

Formal methods and tools for categorising and analysing the concepts, the problems and solution paths in ICT-enabled governance
Metrics and assessment models , Decision Support, Modelling & Simulation Tools (supporting problem-solution relation, utilising BPM/BPR tools, vertical approaches)
Multi-disciplinary issues and relations with neighbouring domains
Continuous evolution of the domain to meet new societal challenges

Today: rank the research challenges by adding post-its; add new ones.
Until October 15 th : rank and comment online via crossroad.uservoice.com
Full draft roadmap available and commentable online at www.crossroad-eu.net
November 30 th : publication of final roadmap

Crossroad roadmap ict2010

by osimod on Oct 06, 2010

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Crossroad roadmap ict2010 — Presentation Transcript