Cisco Visual Networking Index
and VNI Service Adoption
Gonzalo Valverde
June 2014
Argentina
2013–2018
Regional Sales Manag...
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Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)
Glob...
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More Video Viewing
79% of All IP Traffic...
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Global Device Growth
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By 2018, over half of the
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By 2018, over two-third of the
populati...
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North America
2.5-fold Growth
18–43 Mbp...
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In Argentina, fixed
broadband speeds wi...
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North America
40.5 EB/Month by 2018
Vid...
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In Argentina, monthly IP video
traffic ...
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Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage...
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...
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Top 10 B...
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Average Global Traffic per Device (2013...
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Global Internet Traffic by Device Type
...
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Top 10 B...
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Global M2M Traffic Growth
M2M Traffic W...
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Globally, M2M connections
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Internet of Everything
Smart Cars Will ...
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Top 10 B...
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2.5-fold Growth
18–43 Mbp...
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Higher Fixed Speeds Enable Greater Vide...
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Faster Networks Enable Better Experienc...
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2-fold Growth
12–23 Mbps
...
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Surge of Hotspots
Globally, there will ...
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Future of Wi-Fi as Wired Complement
199...
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2.6-fold Growth
1.7 to 4....
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Top 10 B...
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Presentación del VNI Argentina - Junio 2014

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Presentación del VNI Argentina - Junio 2014

  1. 1. Cisco Visual Networking Index and VNI Service Adoption Gonzalo Valverde June 2014 Argentina 2013–2018 Regional Sales Manager
  2. 2. Cisco Confidential 2© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Service Adoption & IP Traffic Growth Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned. VNI VNI VNI VNI VNI Service Adoption Forecast Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast FIXED MOBILE RESIDENTIAL MOBILE BUSINESS
  3. 3. Cisco Confidential 3© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. More Video Viewing 79% of All IP Traffic Faster Broadband Speeds 2.6-Fold Speed Increase More Devices 21 Billion Connections More Internet Users 4 Billion Internet Users Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, 2013–2018 Growth Catalysts
  4. 4. Cisco Confidential 4© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 51 62 76 91 110 132 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global IP Traffic will Increase 3X from 2013 to 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 21% CAGR Exabytes per Month
  5. 5. Cisco Confidential 5© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 3.5 4.4 5.3 6.4 7.6 8.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Latin America IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line LATAM IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 21% CAGR Exabytes per Month
  6. 6. Cisco Confidential 6© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 0.33 0.41 0.49 0.58 0.67 0.78 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Argentina IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Argentina IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.4X from 2013 to 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 19% CAGR Exabytes per Month
  7. 7. Cisco Confidential 7© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Rest of LATAM (21% CAGR) Chile (20% CAGR) Argentina (19% CAGR) Mexico (23% CAGR) Brazil (20% CAGR) LATAM IP Traffic Growth / Countries Mexico has the Highest Growth Rate at 23% CAGR 2013–2018 Brazil will Generate 44% of all IP Traffic by 2018 20.4% 43.7% 8.8% 21.2% 5.9% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 21% CAGR Exabytes per Month
  8. 8. Cisco Confidential 8© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Internet Users Growth By 2018, There Will Be Nearly 4 Billion Internet Users Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 North America 317 Million by 2018 CAGR 2% Latin America 371 Million by 2018 CAGR 9.6% Western Europe 346 Million by 2018 CAGR 1.4% Middle East & Africa 431 Million by 2018 CAGR 15.1% Central/Eastern Europe 339 Million by 2018 CAGR 8.6% Asia Pacific 2.1 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11.2% Cisco Confidential 8© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  9. 9. Cisco Confidential 9© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Device Growth By 2018, There Will Be ~21 Billion Networked Devices/Connections North America 3.4 Billion by 2018 CAGR 13% Latin America 1.7 Billion by 2018 CAGR 9% Western Europe 2.8 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11% Middle East & Africa 2 Billion by 2018 CAGR 9% Central/Eastern Europe 1.6 Billion by 2018 CAGR 10% Asia Pacific 9.2 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 9© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  10. 10. Cisco Confidential 10© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. By 2018, over half of the world’s population (52%) will have Internet access. By 2018, there will be 2.7 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 50% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
  11. 11. Cisco Confidential 11© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. By 2018, over two-third of the population (67%) will have Internet access. By 2018, there will be 3.4 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 55% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Argentina
  12. 12. Cisco Confidential 12© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. North America 2.5-fold Growth 18–43 Mbps Latin America 2.6-fold Growth 6–16 Mbps Western Europe 2.5-fold Growth 19–49 Mbps Middle East & Africa 2.6-fold Growth 6–15 Mbps Central/Eastern Europe 2.6-fold Growth 18–45 Mbps Asia Pacific 2.7-fold Growth 18–48 Mbps Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 12© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration 2.6X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (16 Mbps) to 2018 (42 Mbps)
  13. 13. Cisco Confidential 13© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. In Argentina, fixed broadband speeds will grow 2.6-fold reaching 11 Mbps by 2018, up from 4.1 Mbps in 2013. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
  14. 14. Cisco Confidential 14© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. North America 40.5 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 84% Latin America 8.9 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 81% Western Europe 19.3 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 79% Middle East & Africa 5.3 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 79% Central/Eastern Europe 10.2 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 70% Asia Pacific 47.3 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 77% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 14© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global IP Traffic - Increasing Video Viewing By 2018, Video Represents 79% of Global IP Traffic
  15. 15. Cisco Confidential 15© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. In Argentina, monthly IP video traffic will grow 4-fold reaching 595 PB by 2018, up from 168 PB in 2013. By 2018, IP video will be 76% of all IP traffic in Argentina. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
  16. 16. Cisco Confidential 16© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage By 2018 30 GB per month In 2013 15 GB per month 75 GB per month Future By 2018 73 GB per month In 2013 36 GB per month 150 GB per month Future Average Traffic per Household Average Traffic per User Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
  17. 17. Cisco Confidential 17© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Average LATAM Internet Bandwidth Usage By 2018 25 GB per month In 2013 14 GB per month 75 GB per month Future By 2018 72 GB per month In 2013 40 GB per month 150 GB per month Future Average Traffic per Household Average Traffic per User Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
  18. 18. Cisco Confidential 18© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Average Argentina Internet Bandwidth Usage By 2018 27 GB per month In 2013 15 GB per month 75 GB per month Future By 2018 72 GB per month In 2013 40 GB per month 150 GB per month Future Average Traffic per Household Average Traffic per User Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
  19. 19. Cisco Confidential 19© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends) 7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
  20. 20. Cisco Confidential 20© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 11% CAGR Billions of Devices 0 5 10 15 20 25 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 M2M (18.6%,35.2%) Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%) Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%) TV (10.0%,12.8%) PCs (12.2%,7.0%) Tablets (2.3%,5.0%) Other Portable Devices (5.2%,4.1%)
  21. 21. Cisco Confidential 21© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Increasing Video Definition By 2018, More than 20% of Global Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K 1 8 28 63 119 202 0 50 100 150 200 250 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SD 2 Mbps HD 7.2 Mbps UHD 18 Mbps Connected 4K TV Sets (M) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
  22. 22. Cisco Confidential 22© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Latin America Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M and Smartphones Over Half of the Total Connections * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 9% CAGR Billions of Devices 0 1 2 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 M2M (14.7%,26.7%) Smartphones (14.1%,24.2%) Non-Smartphones (47.3%,17.5%) TV (4.4%,13.3%) PCs (14.9%,9.1%) Tablets (1.4%,4.8%) Other Portable Devices (3.1%,4.4%)
  23. 23. Cisco Confidential 23© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Average Global Traffic per Device (2013) =Tablet Ultra High Definition TV Laptop/PC Internet Set-Top or Dongle 4.0 GB = 22.9 GB* 22.7 GB = 8.0 GB * Includes IP VoD Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 = =Smartphone 1.0 GB =M2M Module 78 MB
  24. 24. Cisco Confidential 24© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Internet Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 50% of Global Internet Traffic Exabytes per Month 23% CAGR * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.2%) Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.5%) M2M (0.5%,3.7%) TV (4.7%,6.2%) Tablets (3.1%,18.0%) Smartphones (5.0%,21.0%) PCs (86.4%,50.5%)
  25. 25. Cisco Confidential 25© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Latin America Internet Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive a Third of LATAM Internet Traffic Exabytes per Month 20% CAGR * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%) Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.6%) M2M (0.2%,2.2%) TV (0.9%,3.6%) Tablets (1.1%,10.7%) Smartphones (2.5%,15.9%) PCs (95.1%,66.8%)
  26. 26. Cisco Confidential 26© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends) 7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
  27. 27. Cisco Confidential 27© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By 2018, Nearly 1 M2M Connection per Capita M2M Connections (M) 26% CAGR 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Asia Pacific (26.3% CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe (25.7% CAGR) Latin America (23% CAGR) Middle East & Africa (25.2% CAGR) North America (27% CAGR) Western Europe (24.6% CAGR) Source: Machina Researc, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 2.3 B 2.9 B 3.7 B 4.7 B 5.9 B 7.3 B
  28. 28. Cisco Confidential 28© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global M2M Traffic Growth M2M Traffic Will Grow 21-fold from 2013 to 2018 Petabytes per Month 84% CAGR Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Asia Pacific (77.4% CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe (92.7% CAGR) Latin America (87.5% CAGR) Middle East & Africa (91.5% CAGR) North America (91.1% CAGR) Western Europe (85.5% CAGR) 0.2 EB 0.3 EB 0.6 EB 1.2 EB 2.1 EB 3.7 EB
  29. 29. Cisco Confidential 29© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Globally, M2M connections will grow more than 3-fold from 2013 (2.3B) to 2018 (7.3B) Globally, M2M traffic will account for 3% of total IP traffic by 2018, up from 0.4% in 2013 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
  30. 30. Cisco Confidential 30© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Internet of Everything Smart Cars Will Have Nearly 4 M2M Modules Per Car by 2018 Smart Cars Will Drive 41 Petabytes (PB) of Monthly Traffic by 2018 Smart Cars Traffic (PB/Month) Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Smart Cars (M) 35 57 90 136 192 256 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3 5 8 15 25 41 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  31. 31. Cisco Confidential 31© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends) 7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
  32. 32. Cisco Confidential 32© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. North America 2.5-fold Growth 18–43 Mbps Latin America 2.6-fold Growth 6–16 Mbps Western Europe 2.5-fold Growth 19–49 Mbps Middle East & Africa 2.6-fold Growth 6–15 Mbps Central/Eastern Europe 2.6-fold Growth 18–45 Mbps Asia Pacific 2.7-fold Growth 18–48 Mbps Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 32© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration 2.6X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (16 Mbps) to 2018 (42 Mbps)
  33. 33. Cisco Confidential 33© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Higher Fixed Speeds Enable Greater Video Consumption Video Behaviors are Consistent Across Multiple Countries 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Fixed Broadband Speeds (Kbps) Video Minutes per Viewer Linear (Video Minutes per Viewer) Video Minutes per Viewer Source: Cisco VNI, 2014 Indonesia India Argentina Italy Mexico Brazil Australia Chile Russia Canada U.K. Sweden Japan Germany China New Zealand France Spain U.S.
  34. 34. Cisco Confidential 34© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences Online Video (HD movie download) 22 minutes Online Video (HD movie download) 4 minutes Online Video (HD movie download) 2 minutes 55% of all broadband connections by 2018 10 Mbps 22% of all broadband connections by 2018 50 Mbps 100 Mbps 3% of all broadband connections by 2018 (UHD movie download) 2 hours (UHD movie download) 23 minutes (UHD movie download) 12 minutes
  35. 35. Cisco Confidential 35© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. North America 2-fold Growth 12–23 Mbps Latin America 2-fold Growth 5–10 Mbps Western Europe 2-fold Growth 11–21 Mbps Middle East & Africa 2.1-fold Growth 4–8.4 Mbps Central/Eastern Europe 2.4-fold Growth 9–21 Mbps Asia Pacific 2.1-fold Growth 10–22 Mbps Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 35© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Wi-Fi Speed Acceleration 2.2X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (10 Mbps) to 2018 (21 Mbps)
  36. 36. Cisco Confidential 36© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Surge of Hotspots Globally, there will be 53 million hotspots by 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Plans to have 8 million US hotspots by end of 2014 Supports approx. 7 million hotspots in UK today Offers more than 620K hotspots in Asia today Offers more than 500K hotspots in LATAM today
  37. 37. Cisco Confidential 37© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Future of Wi-Fi as Wired Complement 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 802.11 2 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Basic internet 802.11b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Email 802.11b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Rich Media Web 802.11ac 3.6 Gbps Max Applications Enabled High Resolution Video Wired Complement 802.11n 600 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Medium Resolution Video Number of 802.11ac Home CPE to Increase 13-fold from 2013 to 2018
  38. 38. Cisco Confidential 38© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. North America 2.6-fold Growth 1.7 to 4.5 Mbps Latin America 1.5-fold Growth 0.7 to 1 Mbps Western Europe 1.9-fold Growth 1.6 to 3.0 Mbps Middle East & Africa 1.7-fold Growth 0.5 to 0.9 Mbps Central/Eastern Europe 1.7-fold Growth 1.4 to 2.3 Mbps Asia Pacific 1.5-fold Growth 1.3 to 2.0 Mbps Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 38© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Mobile Speed Growth Nearly 2X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (1.4 Mbps) to 2018 (2.5 Mbps)
  39. 39. Cisco Confidential 39© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends) 7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
  40. 40. Cisco Confidential 40© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Internet Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Dominates With 61% of Internet Traffic Share by 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Petabytes per Month 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mobile Data (61% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (10% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR) 24% 44% 15% 23% CAGR 2013–2018 17%
  41. 41. Cisco Confidential 41© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. LATAM Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Dominates With 64% of Internet Traffic Share by 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Petabytes per Month 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mobile Data (66% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (6% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (84% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (18% CAGR) 21% 54% 15% 20% CAGR 2013–2018 10%
  42. 42. Cisco Confidential 42© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends) 7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
  43. 43. Cisco Confidential 43© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends) 7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
  44. 44. Cisco Confidential 44© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP Video Growth Ultra-HD IP Video Will Account for 11% of Global IP Video Traffic by 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Petabytes per Month 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 11%) High Def (HD) Video (36%, 52%) Standard Def (SD) Video (64%, 37%) 25% CAGR 2013–2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
  45. 45. Cisco Confidential 45© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Higher Definition Content Impacts LATAM IP Video Growth Ultra-HD Will Account for 2.5% of LATAM IP Video Traffic by 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Petabytes per Month 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 2.5%) High Def (HD) Video (12%, 36%) Standard Def (SD) Video (88%, 61%) 28% CAGR 2013–2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
  46. 46. Cisco Confidential 46© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends) 7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
  47. 47. Cisco Confidential 47© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Residential Market, by 2018: Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 63% (2.5 billion) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access. 86% (1.5 billion) TV households will be digital TV households. There will be 8 billion fixed residential devices and connections (up from 3.8 billion in 2013). Average household will have 3.7 fixed devices and connections (up from 1.9 in 2013).
  48. 48. Cisco Confidential 48© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Residential Services By 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption Online Music Social Networking Online Video Online Gaming VoIP Digital TV Video on Demand Time Delayed TV 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2018 % Adoption Note: By 2018, the global residential fixed internet population will be 2.5 billion; the number of global TV households will be 1.8 billion. CAGR 2013–2018
  49. 49. Cisco Confidential 49© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Latin America Residential Market, by 2018: Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 63% (235 million) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access. 71% (122 million) TV households will be digital TV households. There will be 562 million fixed residential devices and connections (up from 245 million in 2013). Average household will have 3.1 fixed devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).
  50. 50. Cisco Confidential 50© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Latin America Residential Services By 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Social Networking Will Have Highest Adoption Note: By 2018, Latin America residential fixed internet population will be 235 million; the number of Latin America TV households will be 171 million. CAGR 2013–2018 Online Music Social Networking Online Video Online Gaming VoIP Digital TV Video on Demand Time Delayed TV 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2018 % Adoption
  51. 51. Cisco Confidential 51© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Consumer Mobile Market, by 2018: Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018 There will be 4.8 billion consumer mobile users (64% of population). There will be 8.9 billion consumer mobile devices and connections. Average consumer mobile user will have 1.8 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).
  52. 52. Cisco Confidential 52© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Consumer Mobile Services By 2018, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Social Networking Will Have the Highest Adoption CAGR 2013–2018 Note: By 2018, the global consumer mobile population will be 4.8 billion. MMS Mobile Social Networking Mobile Email Consumer LBS Mobile Gaming Mobile Banking & Commerce Mobile Video Mobile Music 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 2018 % Adoption
  53. 53. Cisco Confidential 53© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Latin America Consumer Mobile Market, by 2018: Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018 There will be 450 million consumer mobile users (69% of population). There will be 813 million consumer mobile devices and connections. Average consumer mobile user will have 1.8 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).
  54. 54. Cisco Confidential 54© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Latin America Consumer Mobile Services By 2018, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Social Networking Will Have the Highest Adoption CAGR 2013–2018 Note: By 2018, Latin America consumer mobile population will be 450 million. MMS Mobile Social Networking Mobile Email Consumer LBS Mobile Gaming Mobile Banking & Commerce Mobile VideoMobile Music 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2018 % Adoption
  55. 55. Cisco Confidential 55© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Business Market, by 2018: Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018 There will be 2.1 billion business Internet users (62% of global work force). There will be 582 million business mobile users (17% of global work force). There will be 3.9 billion business devices and connections (up from 2.5 billion in 2013). Average business internet user will have 1.8 devices and connections There will be 1.4 billion business mobile device and connections (up from 878 million in 2013). Average business mobile user will have 2.4 mobile devices and connections
  56. 56. Cisco Confidential 56© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global Business Services By 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption CAGR 2013–2018 Note: By 2018, the global business Internet population will be 2.1 billion; the number of business mobile users will be 582 million. SMS Mobile Email Room Based Video Conferencing IP Telephony Business LBS Audio Conferencing Desktop Video Conferencing Web Conferencing w/o Video -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 2018 % Adoption
  57. 57. Cisco Confidential 57© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Latin America Business Market, by 2018: Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018 There will be 205 million business Internet users (68% of global work force). There will be 59 million business mobile users (19% of global work force). There will be 296 million business devices and connections (up from 205 million in 2013). Average business internet user will have 1.4 devices and connections There will be 134 million business mobile device and connections (up from 90 million in 2013). Average business mobile user will have 2.3 mobile devices and connections
  58. 58. Cisco Confidential 58© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Latin America Business Services By 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption CAGR 2013–2018 Note: By 2018, Latin America business Internet population will be 205 million; the number of business mobile users will be 59 million. SMS Mobile EmailRoom Based Video Conferencing IP Telephony Business LBS Audio Conferencing Desktop Video Conferencing Web Conferencing w/o Video -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 2018 % Adoption
  59. 59. Cisco Confidential 59© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends) 7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
  60. 60. Cisco Confidential 60© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour Traffic (Gbps) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average Hour Busy Hour Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 28% CAGR 23% CAGR
  61. 61. Cisco Confidential 61© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic (LATAM) Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour Traffic (Gbps) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average Hour Busy Hour Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 26% CAGR 20% CAGR
  62. 62. Cisco Confidential 62© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends) 7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
  63. 63. Cisco Confidential 63© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 1.3B 4.7B 0.7B 5B 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices Globally, By 2018, Nearly 50% (10B) of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will be IPv6-capable, up from 16% (2B) in 2013 37% CAGR Number of Devices (B) Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018
  64. 64. Cisco Confidential 64© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 0.05B 0.3B 0.1B 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices 0.5B In LATAM: By 2018, Nearly 49% (0.8B) of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will be IPv6-capable, up from 15% (0.1B) in 2013 39% CAGR Number of Devices (B) Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018
  65. 65. Cisco Confidential 65© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends) 7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
  66. 66. Cisco Confidential 66© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Usage Limits: Fixed vs. Mobile Globally, More Mobile than Fixed Users Are Impacted by Usage Limits Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Country % Broadband HH > 250 GB % Mobile Users > 2 GB Global 2.1% 3.8% North America 4.7% 21.6% Western Europe 1.6% 9.5% Asia Pacific 1.8% 2.3% Central and Eastern Europe 1.3% 0.9% Latin America 2.4% 1.0% Middle East and Africa 0.1% 1.0%
  67. 67. Cisco Confidential 67© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco VNI Web Sites • Press Release • White Papers / FAQs • Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: ask-vnisa@cisco.com IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018
  68. 68. Thank you.
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