Examining Population Trends

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Are you on the bullet train to irrelevance? Understanding the changing population profile is critical to the success of every real estate professional. The dramatic population changes that are transcending over the next five years will require a new approach to service.

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Examining Population Trends

  1. 1. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Examining Population Trends
  2. 2. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 U.S. Population by Race Year U.S. White Black Asian Hispanic Other 2011 312,211,832 198,274,006 38,047,665 14,677,490 52,141,065 9,071,606 2016 326,157,434 203,590,818 39,443,305 15,531,613 59,225,877 8,365,821 % Change 4.47% 2.68% 3.67% 5.82% 13.59% -7.78% U.S. Census 2012
  3. 3. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 U.S. Foreign Born Population
  4. 4. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 U.S. Population Projections 2008 - 2050 Percent of Total Population 2008-2050 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 White 50.00 Black 40.00 Asian Hispanic 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
  5. 5. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 U.S. Median Income by Race Year U.S. White Black Asian Hispanic 2011 50,289 52,488 36,780 60,415 39,646 2016 50,832 53,107 36,573 61,010 39,834 % Change 1.08% 1.18% -0.56% .98% 0.47 U.S. Census 2012
  6. 6. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Buying Power by Race Source: University of Georgia Selig Center
  7. 7. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Hispanic Trends • The five states with the largest Hispanic markets, in order, are California ($265 billion), Texas ($176 billion), Florida ($107 billion), New York ($81 billion) & Illinois ($44 billion) • The top five states, as ranked by the rate of growth of Hispanic buying power over the past decade, are South Dakota (253%), North Dakota (237%), Arkansas (229%), Alabama (228%) & South Carolina (226%)
  8. 8. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Asian Trends • The five states with the largest Asian consumer markets, in order, are California ($172 billion), New York ($54 billion), Texas ($34 billion), New Jersey ($34 billion) & Illinois ($24 billion)
  9. 9. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Immigrants and Boomers Myers book, Immigrants the demographic transition, the can help In his argues that during and believe that immigration new and other demographers prospect ofauthor and noted needed future workforce andnumber supply some of the workers in the to support the rising a Boomers, diminished skills reduced middle class could undermine the continued growth in of seniors and Dowell Myers the work force as they retire and demographer replace them in home prices. each of these describes how help compensate for the smaller number of younger adults who two powerful demographic are likely to buy homes from the increasing number of older Retirees willmay hold the being net taxpayers to net recipients Americans. transition from influencers of healthresolving the benefits, and they will be supported by a keys to and pension smaller workforce that is struggling one-quarterown needs. New arrivals alone can offset about to meet its of the increase in problems presented by the other. the senior ratio. Seniors are also net home sellers and Myers believes there will be 67% more people in the selling age relative to the younger adults who are likely to be buyers.
  10. 10. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Texas Demographic Analysis
  11. 11. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Texas Population by Race Year TX White Black Asian Hispanic Other 2011 25,752,334 11,971,431 2,731,087 928,446 9,806,890 207,025 2016 28,176,459 12,371,002 2,950,923 1,111,736 11,366,025 252,813 % Change 9.41% 3.34% 8.05% 19.74% 15.90% 22.12% U.S. Census 2012
  12. 12. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Texas Housing Tenure – Owner Occupied
  13. 13. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Texas Housing Tenure – Renter Occupied
  14. 14. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Texas Foreign Born Population
  15. 15. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 International Homebuyer Profile
  16. 16. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 2012 International Home Buying Activity • Total sales volume to international clients is estimated at $82.5 Billion for the 12 months ending March 2012, up from an estimated $66.4 Billion for the 12 months ending March 2012. • The estimated volume of international sales increased between 2011 and 2012 by 24%.
  17. 17. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 International Home Buyer Profile• A random sample of Realtors® on their experiences over the 12 months ending March 2012 identified two types of international clients: – Type A: Foreign clients with permanent residences outside the U.S. These types of clients typically are purchasing property for investment, vacation, or visits of less than six months to the U.S. – Type B: Clients who are recent immigrants (less than two years) or temporary visa holders residing for more than six months for professional, educational, or other reasons.
  18. 18. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Geographic Segmentation • Proximity to the home country, the convenience of air transportation, and climate and location appear to be important considerations to purchasers. For example: – East Coast attracts Europeans. – West Coast is attractive to Asian purchasers. – Mexican purchasers are active in the Southwestern markets. – Florida appears to be attractive to South Americans as well as Europeans and Canadians.
  19. 19. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Geographic Segmentation • International buyers came from a total of 71 countries; the top five (Canada, Mexico, China, U.K., and India) accounted for 53% of transactions. Most states had at least one international transaction, but four states—Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas—accounted for 51% of transactions.
  20. 20. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 U.S. Home Price after Currency Conversion 200 175 150 US Canada Euro 125 Yen 100 100 Index set at 100 in Year 2000 75 2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
  21. 21. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Motivation for Buying • Homes in U.S. are less expensive than comparable foreign properties and viewed as a secure investment and provide rental and long term appreciation possibilities. • International students. The student(s) use the property as a residence while studying in the country. In addition, the properties can also acquire rental and investment aspects, with the student(s) functioning as landlords. • Foreign executives temporarily working in this country. • In the case of recent immigrants to the U.S., home ownership is viewed by many as an important accomplishment in their efforts to become established in this country.
  22. 22. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013
  23. 23. Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013 Examining Population Trends

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