Corn, cattle, confusion

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Tim Petry's "Corn, Cattle, Confusion" PowerPoint for Extension Conference.

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Corn, cattle, confusion

  1. 1. Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City Corn, Cattle, Confusion Tim Petry – Livestock Economist www.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics October 16, 2013 corn,cattle,confusion-Oct2013.pptx
  2. 2. Corn Cattle Confusion
  3. 3. 2012 NOV FC vs DEC CORN
  4. 4. 2013 NOV FC vs DEC CORN
  5. 5. Omaha Corn Prices Weekly $ per bu 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2013 2012 2011 Avg. 2006010 Avg. 200206 JAN Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS OCT G-P-02
  6. 6. CORN: Sun Prairie Grain - Minot
  7. 7. Government Shutdown Oct. 1-16, 2013
  8. 8. Government Shutdown • Cash market not reported by USDA-AMS • CME Feeder Cattle Index (avg. of AMS prices) – used to settle feeder cattle futures – used to settle LRP contracts – the last reported Index was record high $159.89 on Sep. 30 • LRP insurance (USDA-RMA) not available and existing contracts not settled • No Oct. COF (USDA-NASS) report (rescheduled Oct. 31)
  9. 9. Calf and Feeder Cattle Prices • Under 600 lb. - very good demand supported by winter wheat grazing 10/17/13 – Valentine, NE 243 head, fancy, 493 lb. @ $220.25 100 head, fancy, 553 lb. @ $198.75 • 600 – 700 lb. - weaker demand – especially unweaned • Over 700 lb. - very good demand supported by record corn crop, farmer feeder, and excess feedlot capacity 10/17/13 – Green City, MO 318 head, 800-850 lb. @ $170.76 avg. • Heifers - steep season discounts with light receipts but premiums for replacement quality Nebraska- Replacement Quality 500-550 @ $199.49 700-750 @ $175.50
  10. 10. MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES 550-600 Pounds, N.D., Weekly 190 180 170 Projected 160 2013 150 2012 140 2011 2007-2011 AVG 130 120 110 100 90 JAN APR JUL OCT
  11. 11. MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES 750-800 Pounds, N.D., Weekly 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Fut 2014 Fut 2013 Projected 2013 2012 2011 2007-2011 AVG2 JAN APR JUL OCT
  12. 12. 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 9/1/05 11/1/05 1/1/06 3/1/06 5/1/06 7/1/06 9/1/06 11/1/06 1/1/07 3/1/07 5/1/07 7/1/07 9/1/07 11/1/07 1/1/08 3/1/08 5/1/08 7/1/08 9/1/08 11/1/08 1/1/09 3/1/09 5/1/09 7/1/09 9/1/09 11/1/09 1/1/10 3/1/10 5/1/10 7/1/10 9/1/10 11/1/10 1/1/11 3/1/11 5/1/11 7/1/11 9/1/11 11/1/11 1/1/12 3/1/12 5/1/12 7/1/12 9/1/12 11/1/12 1/1/13 3/1/13 5/1/13 7/1/13 9/1/13 CME Feeder Cattle Index 19% +17% 16% 21% 22% 0% 19% 10% ?
  13. 13. www.ndsu.edu/cattledocs
  14. 14. Profit from Backgrounding $174 Calves 550 lb. to 750 lb. ADG = 2.77 lbs. 72 Days on Feed (Example: Oct. 30 – Jan. 11) $/Head Price 750 lb. Steer ($/cwt) 150 155 160 165 170 3.50 24 60 96 132 168 3.70 21 56 92 128 164 Corn ($/bu.) 3.90 4.10 17 53 89 13 49 85 125 161 121 157 4.30 9 45 81 117 153 4.50 5 41 77 113 149
  15. 15. Harvest usually brings out the bears Questions?

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