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2010 Prospective Plantings Report, 3/31/10

2010 Prospective Plantings Report, 3/31/10

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  • 1. The 2010 Prospective Plantings Report Tim Petry & Frayne Olson NDSU Extension Conference March 31, 2010
  • 2. Estimates are based upon a survey of approximately 86,000 farmers, and was conducted during the first two weeks of March
  • 3. Summary of Major U.S. Crops
  • 4. Planted Acreage for Major Crops (Million Acres) Crop 2007 2008 2009 Estimate 2010 % Change from 2009 Corn 93.53 85.98 86.42 88.80 +3 Soybean 64.74 75.72 77.45 78.10 +1 All Wheat 60.46 63.15 59.13 53.83 -9 Winter 45.01 46.28 43.31 37.70 -13 Spring 13.29 14.14 13.27 13.91 +5 Durum 2.16 2.73 2.55 2.22 -13 Cotton 10.83 9.47 9.15 10.50 +15 Sorghum 7.71 8.28 6.63 6.36 -4 Barley 4.02 4.23 3.57 3.27 -8
  • 5. Planted Acreage for Major Crops (Million Acres) Crop 2009 Trade - Low Trade - High Average Trade USDA Estimate Corn 86.42 87.00 90.15 88.94 88.80 Soybean 77.45 77.43 79.50 78.55 78.10 All Wheat 59.13 51.90 54.90 53.32 53.83 Winter 43.31 37.10 37.90 37.32 37.70 Spring 13.27 12.80 14.00 13.56 13.91 Durum 2.55 2.30 2.60 2.47 2.22 Cotton 9.15 10.50 Sorghum 6.63 6.36 Barley 3.57 3.27
  • 6. Short Term Implications for Prices
    • Corn – Neutral - Both prospective plantings and grain stocks are with the range of trade estimates.
    • Soybeans – Slight Negative – Prospective plantings within trade range, but grain stocks are at the upper end of expectations.
    • All Wheat – Neutral - Both prospective plantings and grain stocks are with the range of trade estimates.
  • 7. Short Term Implications for Prices
    • Spring Wheat - Negative - Prospective plantings were at the upper range of trade estimates. Increase was expected due to prevented plantings in 2009. Will these estimates change this spring?
  • 8. Summary of U.S. Prospective Plantings of Other Crops
  • 9. U.S. Planted Acreage for Other Crops (Million Acres) Crop 2007 2008 2009 Estimate 2010 % Change from 2009 Oats 3.763 3.217 3.404 3.364 -1 Sunflower 2.070 2.516 2.030 2.181 +7 Oil 1.766 2.163 1.698 1.714 +1 Non-Oil 0.304 0.354 0.332 0.467 +41 Dry Beans 1.527 1.495 1.538 1.767 +15 Sugarbeets 1.269 1.091 1.183 1.174 -1 Dry Peas 0.847 0.882 0.863 0.837 -3 Canola 1.176 1.011 0.827 1.228 +49
  • 10. U.S. Planted Acreage for Other Crops (Million Acres) Crop 2007 2008 2009 Estimate 2010 % Change from 2009 Potatoes 1.058 1.070 N.A. N.A. Winter 0.010 0.011 0.009 N.A. N.A. Spring 0.073 0.070 0.079 N.A. N.A. Summer 0.050 0.047 0.044 N.A. N.A. Fall 1.008 0.931 0.937 N.A. N.A. Lentils 0.303 0.271 0.415 0.510 +23 Flax 0.354 0.354 0.317 0.420 +32 Chickpeas 0.125 0.082 0.096 0.130 +36
  • 11. Summary of Major North Dakota Crops
  • 12. Planted Acreage: North Dakota Crops (Million Acres) Crop 2007 2008 2009 Estimate 2010 % Change from 2009 All Wheat 8.595 9.230 8.680 8.540 -2 Winter 0.465 0.630 0.580 0.340 -41 Spring 6.650 6.800 6.450 6.700 +4 Durum 1.480 1.800 1.650 1.500 -9 Soybean 3.100 3.800 3.900 4.000 +3 Corn 2.560 2.550 1.950 2.100 +8 Barley (all) 1.470 1.650 1.210 0.980 -19
  • 13. Planted Acreage: North Dakota Crops (Million Acres) Crop 2007 2008 2009 Estimate 2010 % Change from 2009 Sunflower 1.075 1.115 0.885 0.975 +10 Oil 0.910 0.960 0.770 0.800 +4 Non-Oil 0.165 0.155 0.115 0.175 +52 Canola 1.080 0.910 0.730 1.060 +45 Dry Beans 0.690 0.660 0.610 0.680 +11 Pinto 0.520 0.446 0.439 N.A. N.A. Navy 0.096 0.123 0.086 N.A. N.A. Dry Peas 0.515 0.520 0.490 0.490 0
  • 14. Planted Acreage: North Dakota Crops (Million Acres) Crop 2007 2008 2009 Estimate 2010 % Change from 2009 Oats 0.460 0.320 0.350 0.320 -9 Flax 0.320 0.335 0.295 0.395 +34 Sugarbeets 0.252 0.208 0.225 0.227 +1 Lentils 0.110 0.095 0.165 0.200 +21 Potatoes (fall) 0.097 0.082 0.083 N.A. N.A.
  • 15. How many acres will be switched during spring planting?
  • 16. Historical Reliability of Report (20 Year Average – Forecast vs. Final) Crop Thousand Acre Difference Number of Years Average Difference Smallest Difference Largest Difference Below Final Above Final Corn 1,147 32 3,844 8 12 Soybean 1,199 25 2,582 13 7 Winter Wht 516 6 1,415 8 12 Spring Wht 695 12 2,543 10 10 Durum 162 12 552 15 5 Barley 268 31 667 5 15 Oats 269 4 865 2 18 Sorghum 693 31 2,471 11 9
  • 17. Questions or Comments?